General Phoenix Metro Discussion Thread

[biggus diggus]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

I'm downtown every day and I can't say I've noticed that.

I second this.

I am not downtown every day but I am there a lot, haven't noticed that it's any different from April when I had my office there and was there every day. Headed back to Memphis in late January for a quick trip, I'll try to remember to take some pictures of what actual dilapidation and litter looks like.

[CrestedSaguaro]

I did a 3.5 mile walk around Downtown this afternoon and tried to pay attention to trash and homelessness after reading the above posts.

I didn't really see too much trash except some blowing debris since it was a little windy today. Not much in the way of homeless and probably less than usual. It does get a little cluttered looking with all the projects under construction and roadwork going on. But downtown as a whole looked pretty decent to me.

[PHX06]

I live right downtown and only really notice the homeless people when I leave for work on foot at 5am in the morning. There are usually 5-7 of them sleeping on 1st Ave in front of the Bankruptcy Court and the closed down former Even Stevens Sandwich shop. Encouragingly, at least once per week, the police seem to be doing outreach and are going around and speaking to each of them and checking through their possessions.

That being said, during the day I don't notice a substantial number of them -- at least nothing out of the ordinary for a city this size. Maybe they're slightly more noticeable because of the pandemic-induced decrease in non-homeless pedestrians.

South of the railroad tracks is a different story though.

[biggus diggus]

I think with the recent population/construction boom Phoenix went from a sleepy town to a legitimately big city feel in a matter of just a few months. Some people are feeling shock from a quick change, I think.

[azliam]

Well, it looks like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd will in fact be moving to North Phoenix.

Taiwan Semiconductor buys north Phoenix land for $89M

By Corina Vanek – Reporter, Phoenix Business Journal
Dec 9, 2020, 2:30pm MST

...The land is part of a larger, 3,500 acre parcel land and was owned by the state. It underwent a rezoning for employment uses that includes three districts: a technology campus, a technology park and freeway mixed-use development.

The 1,128-acre parcel purchased by Taiwan Semiconductor is located near the northwest corner of Loop 303 and the 43rd Avenue alignment.

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/...enix-land.html

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by azliam

Well, it looks like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd will in fact be moving to North Phoenix.

Taiwan Semiconductor buys north Phoenix land for $89M

By Corina Vanek – Reporter, Phoenix Business Journal
Dec 9, 2020, 2:30pm MST



https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/...enix-land.html

It was always going to be in North Phoenix, the only question was Dear Valley or in those yet unknown reaches up by Lake pleasant.

I can see why having a major semiconductor plant with plenty of space and highway access beat the Pinnacle Peak and 19th ave location.

[combusean]

Did they give a specific location in the article?

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by combusean

Did they give a specific location in the article?

No specific address, but a general area:

The 1,128-acre parcel purchased by Taiwan Semiconductor is located near the northwest corner of Loop 303 and the 43rd Avenue alignment.

[IndyAZ]

It was already settled that site at 51st Avenue and 303 was going to be the site, it just wasn't published. ADOT is in process of getting a Design/Build advertisement ready for 51st Avenue Traffic Interchange on the 303, and City of Phoenix is prepping an advertisement for Design Build of all the infrastructure and 3.5 miles of roadway (probably Dove Valley and 51st Avenue) to support the development. They can't really build the plant until this is done so you will see dirt moving on infrastructure really fast next year to make sure this goes forward.

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by IndyAZ

It was already settled that site at 51st Avenue and 303 was going to be the site, it just wasn't published. ADOT is in process of getting a Design/Build advertisement ready for 51st Avenue Traffic Interchange on the 303, and City of Phoenix is prepping an advertisement for Design Build of all the infrastructure and 3.5 miles of roadway (probably Dove Valley and 51st Avenue) to support the development. They can't really build the plant until this is done so you will see dirt moving on infrastructure really fast next year to make sure this goes forward.

I would really love to have all of your inside sources!

[xymox]

Originally Posted by Obadno

It was always going to be in North Phoenix, the only question was Dear Valley or in those yet unknown reaches up by Lake pleasant.

I can see why having a major semiconductor plant with plenty of space and highway access beat the Pinnacle Peak and 19th ave location.

Don't forget APS ran a big power line through that very area (Dove Valley alignment from I-17 to Lake Pleasant Pkwy). Plenty of space - plenty of right away for power - of which they will need a lot. (as was referenced in the biz journals article)

This will be a huge win for the northwest valley - Peoria, Phoenix and maybe even Surprise will grow like mad around there. Peoria has its highest density zoning for residential and commercial/office established around Carefree Hwy and Lake Pleasant Pkwy.

I suppose this also means the ultimate buildout of L303 from Lake Pleasant -> I-17 with fly over ramps for HOV will be pushed up to the sooner vs later part of the plan...

[IndyAZ]

Originally Posted by xymox

I suppose this also means the ultimate buildout of L303 from Lake Pleasant -> I-17 with fly over ramps for HOV will be pushed up to the sooner vs later part of the plan...

Since nothing is funded and this sort of came out of nowhere, in roadway planning terms at least. I don't think it will happen fast, only the 51st Avenue TI that is required for access, but agree this at least pushes that schedule up a few years and is probably now more of a priority for ADOT. Especially since the Happy Valley to Lake Pleasant widening project just started construction this week, this is the final segment to make the 303 a complete freeway, since that segment is still technically a "highway".

Not to mention, not only was this huge parcel of land auctioned. Two other major parcels of land are being auctioned in North Peoria this month for more residential housing, so the 303 corridor is seeing a ton of growth.

https://land.az.gov/sites/default/fi...94_flyer_2.pdf
https://land.az.gov/sites/default/fi...0944_flyer.pdf

[xymox]

Originally Posted by IndyAZ

Since nothing is funded and this sort of came out of nowhere, in roadway planning terms at least. I don't think it will happen fast, only the 51st Avenue TI that is required for access, but agree this at least pushes that schedule up a few years and is probably now more of a priority for ADOT. Especially since the Happy Valley to Lake Pleasant widening project just started construction this week, this is the final segment to make the 303 a complete freeway, since that segment is still technically a "highway".

Not to mention, not only was this huge parcel of land auctioned. Two other major parcels of land are being auctioned in North Peoria this month for more residential housing, so the 303 corridor is seeing a ton of growth.

https://land.az.gov/sites/default/fi...94_flyer_2.pdf
https://land.az.gov/sites/default/fi...0944_flyer.pdf

Makes sense - I imagine L303 will show up on next year’s 5 year plan update. I can’t image that existing transition from I-17 to L303 - a diamond exchange - will survive the volume of traffic this will bring for very long.

Those two land auctions - interesting - I thought those were already part of the Aloravita master planned community. It was only a matter of time until those parcels sold and developed though - prime land in north Peoria...

[TakeFive]

Given all the threads... I had to pick one.


Courtesy ABC15

Auctioning off a dead mall
Dec 21, 2020 By Jessica Testa – The New York Times via PBJ

PHOENIX — The body parts come as a surprise, even if you expect them, when they’re the only things left behind.

When a mall has closed — its stores shuttered by recession, new spending habits or a deadly virus — the mannequins sometimes remain. They’re stripped and dismembered, their detached legs propped against bare walls and severed hands thrown into abandoned backrooms. The mall has become a “dead mall,” emptied of people and their products.

But an Auction?

Before a dead mall can be reborn — renovated as senior housing or office complexes, as developers have recently attempted — these remnants must be cleared out. And because malls are temples of consumption, these items are being increasingly sold to the highest bidder.

You too can find a bargain here.

Two weeks ago, in Phoenix, auctioning began at the vacant Metrocenter mall, which closed in June, and will continue on a weekly basis through January. By then, the auctioneers expect to have listed about 1,000 lots.

It's a fun trip down memory lane.

Back in the mid-70's I met with a guy (young like me) who had opened up a T-shirt shop in Metro Center and seemed very successful with several shops. Having a shop in Aspen I was curious about the opportunities in Denver. I ended up going a different direction but I can still recall checking out Metro Center. Was very impressed.

It could be some time before much happens here but the potential is there.

[muertecaza]

2020 Census state-by-state estimates released today:

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...estimates.html

Despite COVID if I'm reading the table right Arizona had its largest yearly increase of population this decade at roughly 130,000 people. The total population estimate for Arizona as of July 2020 is 7,421,401, which represents just over a 1,000,000 person increase in population since 2010.

We started the decade as the 16th most populous state, and during the decade passed Indiana and Massachusetts and now sit at 14th. We are slowly catching up to Washington, but they are growing nearly as fast as we are. If current growth rates continue, in another 10 years we'd probably still be 14th, maybe 13th passing Washington, but we'd be bunched up with Virginia, New Jersey and Washington as having relatively similar populations.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by muertecaza

2020 Census state-by-state estimates released today:

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...estimates.html

Despite COVID if I'm reading the table right Arizona had its largest yearly increase of population this decade at roughly 130,000 people. The total population estimate for Arizona as of July 2020 is 7,421,401, which represents just over a 1,000,000 person increase in population since 2010.

We started the decade as the 16th most populous state, and during the decade passed Indiana and Massachusetts and now sit at 14th. We are slowly catching up to Washington, but they are growing nearly as fast as we are. If current growth rates continue, in another 10 years we'd probably still be 14th, maybe 13th passing Washington, but we'd be bunched up with Virginia, New Jersey and Washington as having relatively similar populations.

It looks like Arizona will gain a 10th seat in the House of Representatives.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by muertecaza

2020 Census state-by-state estimates released today:

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...estimates.html

Despite COVID if I'm reading the table right Arizona had its largest yearly increase of population this decade at roughly 130,000 people. The total population estimate for Arizona as of July 2020 is 7,421,401, which represents just over a 1,000,000 person increase in population since 2010.

We started the decade as the 16th most populous state, and during the decade passed Indiana and Massachusetts and now sit at 14th. We are slowly catching up to Washington, but they are growing nearly as fast as we are. If current growth rates continue, in another 10 years we'd probably still be 14th, maybe 13th passing Washington, but we'd be bunched up with Virginia, New Jersey and Washington as having relatively similar populations.

I doubt we will see a slowdown in California refugees for years. This last year has made the decision for millions of Californians that its time to go.

[TakeFive]

The Pandemic affect on migration - Phoenix is On Fire

Originally Posted by muertecaza

We started the decade as the 16th most populous state, and during the decade passed Indiana and Massachusetts and now sit at 14th. We are slowly catching up to Washington, but they are growing nearly as fast as we are. If current growth rates continue, in another 10 years we'd probably still be 14th, maybe 13th passing Washington, but we'd be bunched up with Virginia, New Jersey and Washington as having relatively similar populations.

Phoenix is now in the sweet spot for a lot of companies and the ride is just beginning.

Interesting article from CNBC today.

MIAMI — Move over, Texas. The Lone Star state has grabbed headlines as tech companies like Oracle, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise and billionaire Elon Musk are planning to move major operations from California for its greener pastures and — lower taxes.

But now, Miami is becoming a magnet for companies trying to escape from high taxes and over-crowding.

While this article focuses on Miami and Barry Sternlicht's decision to move Starwood Capital's headquarters from the NE to Florida it could just as easily been about Phoenix. (Btw, I happened to read yesterday about Starwood providing equity for couple of senior projects by Ryan Companies in Mesa and Troon area of Scottsdale.)

Both Florida and Arizona were crushed by the Great Recession partly because they were retirement meccas without great economic diversity. Both states started the last decade slowly but have picked up velocity in the last half as each state become more economically diversified.

Pandemic pushes companies to seek new digs

There's been a whole attitude change regarding office space and what's important. Work-from-home has created what are now called Second Cities. The focus on talent and economics is continuing to take a toll on previous coastal states/cities.

“People don’t feel safe,” Sternlicht said of New York. “The affluent are leaving in busloads, and Miami is getting more than their fair share.” He likens Miami to Singapore—a “working, diverse culture” that’s business friendly. “Frankly, there’s going to need to be a reckoning day for some of these states, like Illinois and New York and Connecticut — my home state — where they’re going to have to figure out they just can’t keep increasing taxes. It’s just not going to work. People can live in other places.”

Talking about California:

A growing number of Silicon Valley investors are taunting California on Twitter as they head east to Miami — names like Jon Oringer who founded Shutterstock, Keith Rabois of Founders Fund and Shervin Pishevar who helped launch Hyperloop One.

“They don’t know what side their bread is buttered on,” Scott Absher said, referring to California’s political leadership... “I came to California in the mid-90s, and one of the things that I observed was just this bubbling of activity and excitement and optimism. I don’t see that as much anymore,” Absher said.

Phoenix is rapidly becoming a discovered gem as apposed to an undiscovered gem.

[Obadno]

It cannot be overstated how much this moving up of the timeline for Work from Home and Remote Work is going to be a lifeline for the, so called, "Flyover States"

It might on the surface not seem like a lot but even just a few people making 6 figures being able to work remotely from small towns and cities can make a massive impact in those communities.

[YourBuddy]

The thing that will hurt Florida is obviously the disaster risk and the rising insurance costs. I was reading from some economist that he thinks the next economic crisis could be from insurance costs in places like Miami.

Texas could be hard to beat out if government in Texas uses waiving property taxes to give incentive to big companies. Not great for the middle class home owners who can’t afford increasing property taxes.

I also watched a video from GPEC with some good insight from Michael Crow about what they view the future of business development and what needs to be done to compete with places like Texas, Florida, and Denver. It’s hopeful but worrisome at the same time.

• Video Link