Portland development has slowed ALOT

[pdxsg34]

I was combing through permits on PMaps, and it appears we only have:

Significant projects permit approved and UC:
UC (2023-04) - 1025 SW Mill St (Vernier Science Building) Renovation
UC (2023-04) - Dairy Apartments 7-Story
UC (2023-04) - SW Park & Clinton 11-Story
UC (2023-05) - NE 18th & Davis 3-story
UC (2023-05) - NW Park & Davis 6-Story (Choice Cambria Hotel)
UC (2023-06) - 253 N Broadway (Albina) - 7-Story Development
UC (2023-06) - Francis + Clare Apartments - 4-Story

Significant projects under permit review the past 3 months:
Under Review (2023-05-18) - HollywoodHUB 12-story
Under Review (2023-06-13) - SW 13th & Alder (Julia West House) 12-story
Under Review (2023-06-20) - N Russell & Vancouver 7-Story
Under Review (2023-06-20) - N Vancouver & Failing 6-Story (Coho Commons)
Under Review (2023-06-20) - U Store Self 6-Story Storage
Under Review (2023-07-20) - N Interstate & Overlook 7-Story

Significant projects under recent land use review:
Land Use (2023-04-23) - NW 18th & Everett Renovation & 5-Story
Land Use (2023-04-26) - N Maryland & Holman 5-Story
Land Use (2023-05-24) - Jefferson High School Modernization
Land Use (2023-06-12) - NW 17th & Upshur 5-story
Land Use (2023-06-23) - Conway Block 292E 6/7-Story
Land Use (2023-06-28) - NE 7th & Irving 15-Story
Land Use (2023-07-06) - N Williams & Alberta 5-story (Strong Family House)
Land Use (2023-07-20) - NW 9th & Hoyt (Honeyman Hardware) 8-story

Based on the past ebbs and flows of projects and construction, it seems pretty light, especially on the Early Assistance/Land Use (incoming projects). No significant EA projects in 2023 (building 6+ stories in inner portland) Are there any reasons for this (construction costs, economic standing, etc.)? For a city this large, it seems like we should have way more coming down the pipe. Only 7, SEVEN project permitted the last 3 months! Only 6, SIX applied for permit review?....

[maccoinnich]

Might be worth watching the Housing Production Work Session which is currently taking place:

• Video Link

[sopdx]

Originally Posted by maccoinnich

Might be worth watching the Housing Production Work Session which is currently taking place:

• Video Link

This is a really interesting presentation. There is a lot of information regarding inclusionary housing, current and potential subsidies, and the current development market.

[Natural]

Oregon(Portland) is currently the causality of several events acting concurrent/successional.

1. Covid
2. Political Demonstrations
3. Homeless/ Crime
4. Dysfunctional State, City. Local Gov
5. Cultural War with far Right Wing Interests attaching Oregon's vitality
along with other Blue/Technocratic Regions.

The mentioned events have begun to dismantle the reputation, economy of the State. Any single event or two would not be an economy killer, but a succession of multiple events is fatal. IMO the current Cultural War Event underway in the Country ( Red vs Blue) has inflicted the largest blow to Oregon. Everywhere on the Social Media Platforms are Right Extremists who are trolling hateful Anti - Portland propaganda, showcasing the Homeless, Crime, Store closings, Antifa Conspiracies and other disinformation which is proving to be a very effective weapon ( death of a thousand cuts). The current issues afflicting Portland are also nationwide in scale, affecting all markets. Portland is an easy target-low hanging fruit to exploit! It is no accident that this economic downturn is occurring and can make the inference that it is actually being orchestrated. This downcycle in Oregon could last another 2-5 years depending the next years Election Cycle and /or termination the current Social/ Economic Cycle....hard to tell for sure because there is no simple solution with so many moving pieces.

Look around the Country and take notice that the vast majority of hyper growth /success oriented locations are Ultra Conservative Red States with the following characteristics-Secrets of Success??

EXTREME:
Pro Business
Tax Incentives/Subsidies for Corp
Anti Environment
Voting Rights( Gerrymandering, Accessibility to vote)
Anti Women/Human rights

Texas checks all the boxes
Oregon checks no boxes.

The economic climate is getting competitively fierce and all the the old rules of fair play are being discarded. It is more like gang warfare with lines being drawn and only causalities. Winner take all spoils (companies, jobs, monetary growth). How States like Oregon are able to function in this environment in the future is uncertain.

[RED_PDXer]

Originally Posted by Natural

Oregon(Portland) is currently the causality of several events acting concurrent/successional.

1. Covid
2. Political Demonstrations
3. Homeless/ Crime
4. Dysfunctional State, City. Local Gov
5. Cultural War with far Right Wing Interests attaching Oregon's vitality
along with other Blue/Technocratic Regions.

The mentioned events have begun to dismantle the reputation, economy of the State. Any single event or two would not be an economy killer, but a succession of multiple events is fatal. IMO the current Cultural War Event underway in the Country ( Red vs Blue) has inflicted the largest blow to Oregon. Everywhere on the Social Media Platforms are Right Extremists who are trolling hateful Anti - Portland propaganda, showcasing the Homeless, Crime, Store closings, Antifa Conspiracies and other disinformation which is proving to be a very effective weapon ( death of a thousand cuts). The current issues afflicting Portland are also nationwide in scale, affecting all markets. Portland is an easy target-low hanging fruit to exploit! It is no accident that this economic downturn is occurring and can make the inference that it is actually being orchestrated. This downcycle in Oregon could last another 2-5 years depending the next years Election Cycle and /or termination the current Social/ Economic Cycle....hard to tell for sure because there is no simple solution with so many moving pieces.

Look around the Country and take notice that the vast majority of hyper growth /success oriented locations are Ultra Conservative Red States with the following characteristics-Secrets of Success??

EXTREME:
Pro Business
Tax Incentives/Subsidies for Corp
Anti Environment
Voting Rights( Gerrymandering, Accessibility to vote)
Anti Women/Human rights

Texas checks all the boxes
Oregon checks no boxes.

The economic climate is getting competitively fierce and all the the old rules of fair play are being discarded. It is more like gang warfare with lines being drawn and only causalities. Winner take all spoils (companies, jobs, monetary growth). How States like Oregon are able to function in this environment in the future is uncertain.

This is a very bizarre assessment. It's also an overly broad and disconnected set of factors you mention. Let's just focus on the obvious - homelessness, drugs and crime. Those are particularly bad in west coast states. The city of Portland and Multnomah County are particularly lousy at addressing these issues, which could explain the net loss of population in the last couple years for Multnomah County. Every state dealt with covid and it's not a distinguishing factor. Many cities in Oregon are extremely pro-business (and so is the state which allows for tax subsidies for large employers moving to the state and for tech companies with expensive equipment). Being anti-environment, anti-democratic, or anti women/human rights is not a demonstrable recipe for success. Cultural wars have nothing to do with this. I've read about people moving from places in Indiana to places in Texas to live in a more progressive community. I've read about people from relatively higher cost-of-living states move to Texas because it's cheaper. The bottom line is the cost-of-living and local environments. Texas is not bright red. All the urban areas are very blue. To oversimplify this at a state level is really missing the mark.

[2oh1]

+1 to everything RED_PDXer said.

Originally Posted by RED_PDXer

Let's just focus on the obvious - homelessness, drugs and crime. Those are particularly bad in west coast states. The city of Portland and Multnomah County are particularly lousy at addressing these issues, which could explain the net loss of population in the last couple years for Multnomah County.

100,000,000% THIS. It's fixable, but not until we have leadership with the commitment and ability to do so. Here in Portland, we don't. Hopefully, that's a temporary problem. I'm literally counting the days until Ted's term ends. Portland has a weak mayor system, but a weak mayor system with an especially weak mayor is a recipe for disaster. Ted literally got tear gassed during the 2020 protests, and he immediately responded by... doing nothing.

I voted for the guy twice, but both times I knew I was just choosing the least awful choice. He seems like such a nice guy, but his leadership skills are less than zilch.

Originally Posted by RED_PDXer

Cultural wars have nothing to do with this.

Again, absolutely, agreed.

Yes, some cities in red states are seeing business booming, but they're also seeing talent leaving. Teachers can't get out of Florida and Texas fast enough. The brain drain they're beginning to see is unprecedented. Over the past 20 years, Portland saw the opposite. And once we get our homelessness and crime situation under control (like it or not, the two are linked) we will again be a place where creatives flee to, not from.

If we can just get some leadership in city hall, which means in city council but especially in the mayor's office, I strongly believe Portland's future will be very bright. And the more red states push the bigotry culture wars, the more cities like ours will benefit as talented people seek quality of life, which also includes quality of heart. Corny as it may sound, Portland is a city with a big heart.

[PhillyPDX]

So much is about jobs. People follow jobs. Jobs locate where it's efficient to operate for the bottom line. Jobs bring people. Both bring development.

During the recent boom Portland got away with people moving here because it's cool/Portlandia (I know many). Not sure that was ever really sustainable long term, especially as prices skyrocketed as those people all moved in (and then proceeded to complain how expensive it is).

Outside Texas, most states are not bringing in tons of new companies from outside. So you have to grow what you have. Or create new. So how do you cultivate that?

You really need an industry, you need to be a hub of something. Intel, for sure. But interestingly in the city I've only met 1 Intel worker living in NE Portland. Very much stays in Washington County. Apparel industry (nike, adidas, etc)? There is not major a research/education hub here, unfortunately (for research funding, incubator start ups, other economic benefits).

Tech industry? How do you cultivate/grow that? I know very little about that industry, so can't speak to it. Bolster OHSU into a bigger medical (research) hub? Thats very competitive and the big medical cities are pretty entrenched. But maybe there's an avenue there if the state gets behind it?

[subterranean]

There are just so many macro things at play that it's difficult if not impossible to pin down just one factor. Portland's issues in particular are so complex.

During COVID, the trash, homelessness, and drug issues were definitely one issue. This, combined with housing market demand for more space for home offices, and relatively cheap costs per square foot, caused Washington County to experience a lot of growth pressure. This was heavily reported on and is no secret.

This happened in both the residential as well as commercial markets as people and businesses moved here to escape that stuff. Anecdotally, me and my wife watched this unfold around us. The houses in our neighborhood have sold for more than double what we paid in 2016. Sure, prices have increased everywhere, but I bet if you compare prices pre- and post-COVID, the percentage increase in prices in the western suburbs has outpaced the city proper. It's felt a bit like a baby "white flight," but instead of race being an issue, it's socioeconomic status.

The low interest rates at the time, combined with a huge increase in demand, caused much higher prices, bringing Washington County home prices into close parity with Portland proper. For the prices though, you get better schools, lower taxes, and honestly much nicer homes. It hurts me to say that because I love historic Portland houses in traditional neighborhoods, but if I'm going to spend $600k+ on a home, it better be nice and in a decent school district.

Taxes are also becoming absolutely crippling in Portland/Multnomah County. My wife and I have been really interested in moving closer in, possibly to Southwest Portland, but every time we find anything within our budget, the property taxes are often close to double what we're currently paying now, adding hundreds of dollars per month to our monthly payment, decreasing our buying power, and with no obvious benefit in services. We've even looked into building something, but the property taxes on that would be outrageous.

Another factor is that when COVID hit, a lot of young families decided they wanted to be close to extended family, particularly their kids' grandparents. Portland, being filled with more transplants than natives, this just makes sense that people with young children are leaving for home.

Now I'm seeing many younger but growing families needing and wanting more space, but they can't (or otherwise won't) buy at Metro Portland prices at 6-7% interest rates. I don't know about your experiences, but over the last few years, I've seen a massive exodus of friends, neighbors, and acquaintances who have moved back east and to the Midwest and South because of buying power. They see real estate prices in the Midwest and South and suddenly they feel like they could be in the advantageous position of being a cash buy, such as Californians who move here.

My immediate neighbor behind me just moved out and took his family of 5 to Texas because the wife works remotely and they can afford a house there. Some other friends moved to North Carolina and bought a huge house with their Portland home's proceeds. Some other friends moved to Cleveland Ohio and small-town Virginia to afford homes.

Lastly, the market is extremely tight for existing homes, with people unwilling to give up their low interest rates. I just read an article that said basically sales of existing homes is down 19% while sales of new construction is up about the same. New home buyers, not seeing availability in the existing home market, are buying newly built homes because they aren't giving up a low interest rate (because they're first-time buyers). And where are most of the new homes being built? In the suburbs.

[maccoinnich]

Property taxes are incredibly messed up in Oregon due to measures 47 and 50. My partner and I just bought a house in Portland, which is worth twice the condo I moved out of... and we're less in property taxes than I was on my condo. We're also paying less than we would on a random similarly priced house that I just looked at for comparison in Beaverton.

And to go back more directly to the point you were making... people talk a lot about how E Portland pays more than their fair share of property taxes, but the less discussed thing is that SW Portland does too. Meanwhile inner SE/NE/N Portland property owners are paying less than their fair share.

[maccoinnich]

New apartment construction nosedives across West Coast cities

New apartment construction is plunging in the West Coast's biggest metro areas after officials spent years trying to combat soaring rents.

Why it matters: West Coast metro areas are already grappling with a housing shortage that's driving an affordability crisis, and experts say the apartment construction slump will make things worse.

• "If you think the housing crisis is bad now, just wait a few more years," said Muhammad Alameldin, policy associate with the Terner Center for Housing Innovation at UC Berkeley, who studies housing construction costs.

Driving the news: High interest rates and the rising costs of labor and materials are forcing developers to pull back on apartment projects throughout the West Coast, according to new data on construction starts from CoStar Group, a real estate information company.

• Developers are on pace to start building fewer than 20,000 apartments combined this year in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, San Jose, Seattle, and Portland — less than a quarter of what those locations together produced a year earlier.
• CoStar's data for each metro area covers projects of five or more units.
• The West Coast's decline in construction starts is outpacing the rest of the nation's, CoStar's data shows.

...continues at Axios

[pdxsg34]

Further points on the stagnation of development in the central city, there are a large number of projects that have not made permitting progress for quite some time, including:

Proper Hotel (9-story) (Pearl) - Sat in approved to issue for a year and 7 months
Unicorn Bed Apartments - Sat in approved to issue for a year and 6 months
E Burnside & 14th 5-story Apartments - Sat in approved for a year and 5 months
NE 53rd & Glisan (33 units) - Sat in approved for a year and 2 months
Hyatt Place - Sat in in approved for over 6 months
SE 8th & Pine Apartments - Sat in approved for over 6 months

Lincoln Court - No actived since 1/2022
Lents 92 - Nothing since Jan 2023
SW College & 5th (Modera) Apartments - Nothing since 6/2022
SW Market & 9th - Nothing since 2021
200 Grand Office Building - Nothing since 2021, likely dead
SE 22nd & Ankeny 5-story apartments - Nothing in almost a year, likely dead
Riverplace development - Nothing since February

While their are other projects moving forward, there appears to be a ton of projects that were in land use review or under review, even approved, that stalled between mid-2022 and this year. Not surprising given the climate we're in, but yikes, it's like the door just shut last summer and crushed a ton of opportunity.

How long can a project sit in approved? Are their cancellation fees associated with approved permits? I know you pay permit fees, but curious if there's further consequences to not acting on an approval, or demolishing a building and then not following through (like the CE John proposal at 23rd/Marshall, former QP pizza site).

[colossalorder]

If the reality of Portland's development fortunes is too depressing, the good news is you can soon escape to the digital fantasyland of Cities Skylines II. Release date is Oct 24. That's not an advertisement ... I'm just a mega fan as I'd guess others in this forum probably are or would be.
https://www.paradoxinteractive.com/g...lines-ii/about

[subterranean]

One thing people really need to take into consideration is the current lending situation. Projects that penciled 1.5 years ago just don’t pencil anymore. Many nonprofits have stalled housing projects too, and they’re scrambling to figure out what to do. The state and Prosper Portland have to pony up gap funding. Problem is, there isn’t much out there from what I’m hearing, unless it’s reallocated from some other failed project that was facing the same financing issues. There are even conversion issues right now, with projects stuck in construction lending products and unable to get into permanent financing given the contingency requirements of lenders that can’t be met with the new world of interest rates.

Also the eviction moratorium absolutely decimated some landlords, including nonprofits, some of whom are really doing triage and just trying to make it out of this alive.

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by colossalorder

If the reality of Portland's development fortunes is too depressing, the good news is you can soon escape to the digital fantasyland of Cities Skylines II. Release date is Oct 24. That's not an advertisement ... I'm just a mega fan as I'd guess others in this forum probably are or would be.
https://www.paradoxinteractive.com/g...lines-ii/about

I'll probably be sticking with the original game because I finally updated the ram in my computer and can finally handle cities over 200K cims. So I will be busy building big cities in the original game for a while.

[uncommon.name]

Originally Posted by urbanlife

I'll probably be sticking with the original game because I finally updated the ram in my computer and can finally handle cities over 200K cims. So I will be busy building big cities in the original game for a while.

I have an add-on to the game that apparently stopped working and now I can't get the game to run. I'll have to go through and remove them one-by-one to figure out which one is causing the issues.

[uncommon.name]

Originally Posted by subterranean

One thing people really need to take into consideration is the current lending situation. Projects that penciled 1.5 years ago just don’t pencil anymore. Many nonprofits have stalled housing projects too, and they’re scrambling to figure out what to do. The state and Prosper Portland have to pony up gap funding. Problem is, there isn’t much out there from what I’m hearing, unless it’s reallocated from some other failed project that was facing the same financing issues. There are even conversion issues right now, with projects stuck in construction lending products and unable to get into permanent financing given the contingency requirements of lenders that can’t be met with the new world of interest rates.

Also the eviction moratorium absolutely decimated some landlords, including nonprofits, some of whom are really doing triage and just trying to make it out of this alive.

You make some great points and add very valid points. The thing that stands out to me though, is how some cities are still able to get projects going at a higher frequency than Portland, even with those same factors. I feel if you dig into that, those other cities are seeing the same interest rates, same increases in costs, etc. The underlying thing that I keep coming back to is how un-friendly Portland is about development. Portland has one of the most stringent gauntlets you have to get through to develop anything. That's a major factor why so many proposed projects never get off the ground. I think that combining all of the great points that you made, with an un-friendly development process with the city, and Portland is at a cross-roads and needs to change something, quickly.

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by uncommon.name

I have an add-on to the game that apparently stopped working and now I can't get the game to run. I'll have to go through and remove them one-by-one to figure out which one is causing the issues.

I'm actually happy they are done updating the game because of this. Every update, I didn't know if I would be able to play the game right away or if it would take me weeks to work out the issues and for mods to be updated.

[sopdx]

I'm putting this here for lack of a better idea. I hope everyone can see this. It is w/o charge on the DJC site.

BDS has come up with suggestions to streamline residential production in the city.

https://djcoregon.com/news/2023/10/0...he-crosshairs/

[PhillyPDX]

Originally Posted by sopdx

I'm putting this here for lack of a better idea. I hope everyone can see this. It is w/o charge on the DJC site.

BDS has come up with suggestions to streamline residential production in the city.

https://djcoregon.com/news/2023/10/0...he-crosshairs/

Some pretty big changes.

Also like how Routh responded. Exactly right:

Commissioners raised concerns with the proposed suspensions of these standards. Commissioner Erica Thompson said that she’s “very, very hesitant” to remove the eco-roof requirement, and Commissioner Steph Routh echoed that sentiment.

However, with Portland in need of around 120,000 new housing units over the next two decades, commissioners recognized that a housing crisis exists.

“If we say that we are in a housing emergency, it’s an emergency where uncomfortable things need to be on the table,” Routh said. “These (proposed changes) are really uncomfortable for me.”

[AdamUrbanist]

Originally Posted by sopdx

I'm putting this here for lack of a better idea. I hope everyone can see this. It is w/o charge on the DJC site.

BDS has come up with suggestions to streamline residential production in the city.

https://djcoregon.com/news/2023/10/0...he-crosshairs/

This is great. I'd like to see a similar process happen with building code. A commission that pokes at everything that has accreeted over the last 150 years with the understanding that things need to be rebalanced in favor of more housing.