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Originally Posted by drummer
I couldn't read the full article, but I get the gist of it. Unfortunately, there's not much that we can do other than hope level-headed people can see through the fog.
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It's easy to overreact to one news story or another about this type of election and start feeling pessimistic. Here are a few reminders to help cheer the Pro-Transit camp.
Austin today is virtually unrecognizable from the Austin of 2000. I wasn't here for it, but I understand there was a similarly forceful and dirty campaign against the first light rail plan. There was economic uncertainty back then as well after the tech bubble burst, perhaps not exactly comparable to the pandemic, but still. Austin was WAY more NIMBY then than it is today. Even with all of that, the people of Austin voted in favor of the rail plan. It lost because it did not do well in outlying areas, much of which will have no say on the 2020 plan.
Here is a map of the 2000 votes
I think the Austin electorate has only gotten comparatively younger, more urbanist, and more transit friendly in 20 years.
The final tally was 126,434 to 124,479. (I don't know which of these precincts will not get a vote in 2020.)
In 2014, voters in Austin smacked down an unpopular rail plan. (I supported it, despite its flaws and the fact that it would not benefit me.) This plan lost badly, with a final tally of 108,587 (57.2%) against to 81,265 (42.8%) for. I think we can look at this in a few ways. This campaign was laughably mismanaged. The plan was basically toxic, with most city council and mayoral candidates saying they opposed the plan, some even making it central to their platforms. CapMetro's reputation back then was as low as I can remember in my nearly 20 years in Austin. Despite all that, the central parts of Austin were in favor according to the results map.
It was a low turnout, off-cycle election. We know the type of people who tend to come out in those elections - those people are the No on Prop A types. The anti-rail and anti-tax folks vote in every election. Every single one of those people came out in 2014. Does anyone think a ton of these types have moved into Austin since then? I don't. Not in enough numbers to matter, anyway. Look at the names and donors in opposition today. Same crusty old farts as back then. (To be fair, there is a noteable group of longtime Austin rail activists who are also crusty old farts.) Even if all 108k of those who voted against do so again this election (unlikely b/c of reasons below), look at our current turnout numbers: just shy of 500k have voted as of yesterday. There are a ton of people at the polls, and I bet they are much younger and more transit friendly than the 2014 crowd. And that's just early voters.
Interestingly the 2014 plan actually did better on election night relative to early voting.
Recall that transit activists hated the 2014 plan. A not insiginficant portion of those old No votes are basically guaranteed Yes votes this time around. I wish we had some polling data on what portion voted No based on the idea that we had the wrong plan. No one knows how many votes will flip, but it's going to be material. There aren't that many activists, but they are loud on social media and I remember the tone on Reddit and social media was very much toward the No side back then. This time feels really different. Virtually all Austin electeds, establishment Dem groups, progressive Dem groups, environmental groups, and social justice groups proudly support this plan. People don't usually vote based on what their leaders say, but they are a useful estimator for finding the median constituency of each politician/group. Most publicly visible online chatter (Nextdoor notwithstanding), is very pro-Prop A (anecdotal, I know).
All of this was just a really meandering way of saying the following:
- The electorate is much bigger than prior transit votes
- The electorate has become comparatively more likely to support transit
- The Anti-tax, Anti-Rail crowd has probably not grown much since 2014.
- Even with unpopular plans, people tend to vote in favor of trains that will serve their neighborhoods.
- This touches a lot of neighborhoods. And the airport - important for picking up casual supporters, much to the chagrin of transit nerds.
- This plan has a lot more influential cheerleaders than prior efforts. And the Pro groups actually have some real funding to match the Anti groups for once.
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