Canadian Airport Thread II

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by YOWflier

Heard a rumour that some entity in Canada is sniffing around the A350. Speculate away.

Hmmm....

Westjet? Nah, they're confirmed Boeing fanboys, and they're committed to the sweet sweet deals of being Boeing-exclusive. They don't need many more expensive long-haul planes at this juncture and a second widebody fleet to their 787s would be folly from an operations point-of-view.

Air Transat? Their A330s are getting long in the tooth, but the A350 is a decent step up in capacity and range. They're more capacity/range than I figure Air Transat would really benefit from, as they pack passengers into the A330 pretty densely and don't do much beyond Eastern Canada to Europe for range. I'd expect them to go A330neo or used A330 before going whole-hog on fancy A350s, but I've been wrong before.

Air Canada? Hmmm. Their 777s are mid-life. The 777-200LRs are pretty thirsty given the number of passengers they carry, but their range can't be beat. The 777-300ER packs them in, 400-450 passengers worth. The A350-900 has the legs for -200LR missions; the A350-1000 can pack the seats in, similar to the -300ER. The 777X is close to flying, but it's a step upwards in size and remains unproven. Mostly, I'm just curious as to why AC would be moving so quickly on 777 replacement at all given they just committed to the 787-10 to replace their aging A330s. Unless Airbus is just chomping at the bit for sales, or AC thinks that the fuel savings of the A350 will make the capital spend worth it to replace the 777?

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Looks like 8 of the 12 remaining A320s at AC (excluding Rouge) are here to stay.

I suspect AC will keep a mixed 737 MAX/A320 fleet for the foreseeable future, but the continued noises of AC seem to portend a shift to the A320neo for mid-size narrowbody replacement some day.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by YOWflier

Heard a rumour that some entity in Canada is sniffing around the A350. Speculate away.

My guess is Transat.

AC doesn’t need the A350 just yet. They just ordered the 787-10, which competes with the A350-900, and has it beat on CASM to Europe. Plus the 777s still have some life left in them.

WS would order more 789s, not A350s. So that only leaves TS.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Air Transat? Their A330s are getting long in the tooth, but the A350 is a decent step up in capacity and range. They're more capacity/range than I figure Air Transat would really benefit from, as they pack passengers into the A330 pretty densely and don't do much beyond Eastern Canada to Europe for range. I'd expect them to go A330neo or used A330 before going whole-hog on fancy A350s, but I've been wrong before.

In range, yes, but capacity (at least for the A350-900), no.

The A350-900 and A330-300 both have the same exit limit capacity. 440 passengers (in fact, so does the 787-10). So it's a perfect replacement for the plane. If TS buys the A359, you can expect the same kind of seating config it has on the A333s. ~345-375 passengers, maybe slightly more, as the A359 enables 10 abreast seating.

Look at Air Caraibes. Similar shindig to TS, minus the narrowbody fleet, and they operate both the A330 and A350.

Considering TS is the only airline with an all-Airbus fleet in Canada, it is the likely candidate for an A350 order at the moment.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Considering TS is the only airline with an all-Airbus fleet in Canada, it is the likely candidate for an A350 order at the moment.

I'm mostly curious as to what advantages the A350 would offer over the A330neo. The A350 has longer legs and its advantage with fuel efficiency increases as flight distance increases, but Air Transat is mostly doing Eastern Canada to Europe flying. That's stuff that a narrowbody aircraft can do these days. Hardly pushing the edges of distance there.

For Transat's network, the A330neo offers a pretty good package. The A350 seems more expensive for marginal benefit.

[Dominion301]

YOW's September pax stats.

Sector / Sep-22 / Sep-23 / % Change
Dom: 276,775 / 300,789 / +8.7%
TB: 14,746 / 38,599 / +161.8%
Int'l: 0 / 8,672 / #DIV/0! - around a 92% LF for September as AF had one roundtrip cxx due to a mechanical
TTL: 291,521 / 348,060 / +19.4%

Sector / YTD 2022 / YTD 2023 / % Change
Dom: 1,963,044 / 2,435,728 / +24.1%
TB: 106,969 / 403,677 / +277.4%
Int'l: 42,722 / 221,137 / +417.6%
TTL: 2,112,735 / 3,060,542 / +44.9%

Month-Over-Month Change
Sector / Aug-23 / Sep-23 / % Change
Dom: 336,239 / 300,789 / -10.5%
TB: 44,748 / 38,599 / -13.7%
Int'l: 9,166 / 8,672 / -5.4%
TTL: 390,153 / 348,060 / -10.8%
Avg/Day: 12,586 / 11,602 / -7.8%
% of month's avg daily pax vs 2019 (2019 = 13,990 avg pax/day) = 82.9% = worst recovery month since May
YTD TTL vs YTD 2019 = 78.8%

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2021
Dom: 3,181,683 / +178.1%
TB: 487,043 / +4,232.4%
Int'l: 271,415 / 1,640.2%
TTL: 3,940,141 / +236.5% - closing in on 4 million

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by thewave46

I'm mostly curious as to what advantages the A350 would offer over the A330neo. The A350 has longer legs and its advantage with fuel efficiency increases as flight distance increases, but Air Transat is mostly doing Eastern Canada to Europe flying. That's stuff that a narrowbody aircraft can do these days. Hardly pushing the edges of distance there.

For Transat's network, the A330neo offers a pretty good package. The A350 seems more expensive for marginal benefit.

You're right. The real benefit of the A330-900neo, more than anything else, is the fact that it's 30t lighter than the A359. The A359 is built for ULH missions in mind (8,300nm range for the standard version), and as such, has wings and weight to account for that, which are things that TS doesn't need. On that aspect alone, TS would be saving money, as ATC and airport fees are based on aircraft MTOW, regardless of how full a flight is. This being said, the A330-900 has a decent range as well (7,200nm), almost as much as the B787-8. So it's nothing to scoff at.

Of course, there is also the A330-800neo, with even more range, almost as much as the A359, but that variant isn't selling well at all, and I don't think TS would go for it.

If this rumor is indeed about TS, then I am sure they are looking at both aircraft. The OP did mention "sniffing around". Doesn't mean they will choose the A350. They're simply "kicking its tires" so to speak, and having a look.

However, there are several reasons as to why the A359 would make more sense than the A330-900neo, especially if TS has aspirations to widen its network beyond Europe. (And it certainly looks that way, considering they are launching LIM in South America and RAK in Africa, so both those continents seem like fair game for expansion)

For one, the A350 is the most advanced widebody commercial airliner out there. Also, the list price of the A330-900neo and A350-900 are almost the same. $296 million vs $317 million.

So, the question is, do you settle for the A330neo, or just for a little extra more, do you buy the biggest, badest toy out there.

[VaskoYOW]

Originally Posted by YOWflier

Heard a rumour that some entity in Canada is sniffing around the A350. Speculate away.

Allegedly is AC with the 350-1000 to replace/supplement the 777!

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by VaskoYOW

Allegedly is AC with the 350-1000 to replace/supplement the 777!

I'm eager to see AC's Q3 results and management discussion next monday ! A lot has happened with the fleet since Q2 results were released back in August.

B787-10 order
2 77F order canceled

According to planespotters and flyertalk,

6 A320s will join the fleet (4 ex. Virgin America/Alaska, 2 ex China Southern)
1 A321 ex. BR
2 A330s ex. SQ

and now this A350-1000 rumor....

None of this stuff was in the Q2 fleet plans.

[JakeLRS]

Today is the last day of Swoop Ops.
2018-2023

We have our first ULCC causality.
Who will be next?

Flair 2016-
Lynx 2022-

[zahav]

Today is the first day of a lot of Air Canada changes (in the west at least, probably also in the east I just don't have all the adjustments). AC started YVR-DXB, really hoping it does well so it becomes yer-round. Over at YYC, it was the last day of FRA, YOW, LAX, and YHZ. After today, it really fades away. They still have a lot of domestic flights to YVR, YYZ, and YUL (obviously, as those are AC hubs) but barely anything else substantial.

Some somewhat recent YVR tidbits:
-Fiji Airways switched to the larger 350 and up to 3x weekly for much of the winter
-Air Canada increasing HKG service to 10-11 for some of the winter period (normally it is just daily)
-Turkish Airlines up gauging to a 777-300ER

I did a quick flight and seat tally for Westjet at it's three non-YYC "hubs" (in reality only YYC is really a hub now, the others are essentially operating bases, I think that's the term?)

Using a week in January 2024, here is the flight breakdown by city and by seats (seat totals are approx. only). It includes mainline, Encore, and Link, but not Sunwing:
YVR - 425 flights, 54,672 seats
YYZ - 329 Flights, 52,778 seats
YEG - 245 flights, 33,084 seats

YYZ still very strong for WS in the winter with the amount of sun flying, but domestically and non-Florida, they are quite weak (at least compared to how it used to be even a couple years back). The reason they are far behind YVR on # of flights but not that far off based on seats is because the sun destinations are all jet flights, and Encore pulled out of YYZ. So they are a jet-only airport, hence the large # of seats despite less flights. YVR is strong for mainline plus they are strong for Encore and Link. But those planes are smaller, so they increase total amount of flights more than seats. YEG is quite a distant 3rd place, I was surprised until I did the spreadsheet and saw the numbers, I thought all three airports were closer. But keep in mind, this is January 2024, so as far from peak season as it gets, this is just a comparison with all at the same time of year.

Now switch to Summer 2024, using a standard week in July:
YVR - 469 flights, 59,911 seats
YEG - 346 flights, 43,094 seats
YYZ - 311 Flights, 49,953 seats

YEG leapfrogs YYZ to take 2nd place in # of flights. And with a very healthy bump in seats. But again, due to YYZ being all-jet and YEG having a big Encore component, they are still 3rd in seats. YEG is the most Encore-heavy of the three, at 70% of flights being operated by Encore. YVR is just under half (49%) of flights operated by Encore and Link combined. YYZ as mentioned, has no Encore.

YVR and YEG do better in summer, and YYZ does better in winter. YYZ has always been strong in winter due to such a massive network of sun destinations, it's seemingly endless, with so much capacity with Air Canada, Transat, Sunwing, Westjet, all operating, and so many individual destinations, really wild to see YYZ's "southern" destinations list. But still, not enough to lift it above YVR, which is more more consistent seasonally as well as more diverse with strong domestic, transborder, and sun destinations (of the three sectors, international is obviously weakest, but still not that bad for YVR; YVR has historically not been as strong to the Caribbean as every other Canadian airport, it is much more Mexico, the western US, and Hawaii). But it's interesting to see the patterns and performance of Westjet's "other 3 hubs". YVR very clearly in 2nd place after YYC, with YEG/YYZ closer to each other and bigger or smaller than the other, depending on the definition of bigger as well as the season. It is still so wild to me to see how viciously WS cut YYZ down, that's my biggest takeaway. They were so big for WS, and at times I think they were even bigger than YYC by seat capacity (I know I need to verify this, I will try and dig around but I do remember in the past reading that WS actually had more capacity than YYC during a certain period). So to see them in this condition is shocking, having less summer flights than YEG? That would have been inconceivable in years past. YYZ is such a crowded market, there's just so many players and so much competition. Retrenching in YYC was the smart move of course, just crazy to see the actual numbers and how far it's fallen.

I will tackle YYC later today if I have time, it will be kind of funny to just see how insane the gap is between them and everyone else.

[JakeLRS]

Originally Posted by zahav

Now switch to Summer 2024, using a standard week in July:
YVR - 469 flights, 59,911 seats
YEG - 346 flights, 43,094 seats
YYZ - 311 Flights, 49,953 seats

YEG leapfrogs YYZ to take 2nd place in # of flights. And with a very healthy bump in seats. But again, due to YYZ being all-jet and YEG having a big Encore component, they are still 3rd in seats. YEG is the most Encore-heavy of the three, at 70% of flights being operated by Encore. YVR is just under half (49%) of flights operated by Encore and Link combined. YYZ as mentioned, has no Encore.

YVR and YEG do better in summer, and YYZ does better in winter. YYZ has always been strong in winter due to such a massive network of sun destinations, it's seemingly endless, with so much capacity with Air Canada, Transat, Sunwing, Westjet, all operating, and so many individual destinations, really wild to see YYZ's "southern" destinations list. But still, not enough to lift it above YVR, which is more more consistent seasonally as well as more diverse with strong domestic, transborder, and sun destinations (of the three sectors, international is obviously weakest, but still not that bad for YVR; YVR has historically not been as strong to the Caribbean as every other Canadian airport, it is much more Mexico, the western US, and Hawaii). But it's interesting to see the patterns and performance of Westjet's "other 3 hubs". YVR very clearly in 2nd place after YYC, with YEG/YYZ closer to each other and bigger or smaller than the other, depending on the definition of bigger as well as the season. It is still so wild to me to see how viciously WS cut YYZ down, that's my biggest takeaway. They were so big for WS, and at times I think they were even bigger than YYC by seat capacity (I know I need to verify this, I will try and dig around but I do remember in the past reading that WS actually had more capacity than YYC during a certain period). So to see them in this condition is shocking, having less summer flights than YEG? That would have been inconceivable in years past. YYZ is such a crowded market, there's just so many players and so much competition. Retrenching in YYC was the smart move of course, just crazy to see the actual numbers and how far it's fallen.

I will tackle YYC later today if I have time, it will be kind of funny to just see how insane the gap is between them and everyone else.

I’m sure these numbers, especially out west, will be higher when WS releases their full schedule.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by JakeLRS

Today is the last day of Swoop Ops.
2018-2023

We have our first ULCC causality.
Who will be next?

Flair 2016-
Lynx 2022-

Today was also the last day of AC CRJ ops. Not sure if AC8012 YOW-YUL at 1545 this afternoon was the final one but I couldn’t find anything later than that. YOW-DCA, EWR and that YUL departure all switch to CR9s tomorrow.

Today was also the last AF 332 departure out of YOW as the flight upgauges to a 789 for the winter. Pretty rare for a transatlantic flight to see a capacity increase in winter vs summer but to date the route’s overall LF has been around 91%.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

New AC weekly departure numbers:

YYZ 1782
YUL 917
YVR 875
YYC 245
YOW 203
YHZ 170
YEG 151
YWG 104

Updated AC weekly departure numbers:

YYZ 1774
YUL 898
YVR 871
YYC 244
YOW 203
YHZ 170
YEG 149
YWG 104

https://www.staralliance.com/en/airp...irportCode=Yyz
https://www.staralliance.com/en/airp...irportCode=Yul
https://www.staralliance.com/en/airp...irportCode=Yvr
https://www.staralliance.com/en/airp...irportCode=Yyc
https://www.staralliance.com/en/airp...irportCode=Yow
https://www.staralliance.com/en/airp...irportCode=Yhz
https://www.staralliance.com/en/airp...irportCode=Yeg
https://www.staralliance.com/en/airp...irportCode=Ywg

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWflier

Heard a rumour that some entity in Canada is sniffing around the A350. Speculate away.

Would make sense for AC. The 777s are getting old. The 787-10 is too small. And maybe the 777X is too big? Though with AC stuffing 400-450 in a 77W, I would have thought they would go for the 779. But maybe they think they can fit 400 in an A350-1000?

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Would make sense for AC. The 777s are getting old. The 787-10 is too small. And maybe the 777X is too big? Though with AC stuffing 400-450 in a 77W, I would have thought they would go for the 779. But maybe they think they can fit 400 in an A350-1000?

The 779 is more aimed as a A380/747 replacement; it's a step up from the 777-300ER in capacity. It's probably too large (and still isn't flying yet) for an airline like AC. It seems to be aimed at airlines who've large connecting hubs (Lufthansa, BA, Singapore, Emirates) that can make use of the space for big numbers of seats plus a big premium cabin.

Given that Qatar and Virgin Atlantic put 390+ seats in their A350-1000s, I suspect AC will have no problem making 400+ work given that AC has a smaller premium cabin than most flag carriers.

AC's strategy might be capacity discipline with the A350. Super-large capacities are great if one can fill them at decent fares. If not, the extra seats are somewhat wasted. So, much beyond 400 for most AC routes is probably overkill, especially in low season.

I suspect the A350's superior fuel efficiency at range is the hook. AC seems to be making a play for Canada-South Asia direct (Dubai, India, etc.) so a very long-haul, relatively large capacity airplane with decent fuel-efficiency is probably the ticket for that market.

The 777 can do these routes, but I think the A350 would make these routes look much better to the accountants. Given what lead times are in the aircraft industry and the fact that the 777 fleet is in their mid-teens now, a replacement strategy that is looking 4-7+ years down the road makes sense.

[MonctonRad]

With the arrival of the winter schedule, we are back down to only two Air Canada departures to YYZ daily from YQM. There are at 0510 hrs (!!!) and 2145 hrs. Obviously the only option for making connections in Toronto is the 0510 flight, but, Jesus Christ, you would have to wake up at 3 AM in order to make your flight. I mean, why the fuck even bother going to bed!!!

Ah, the joys of the hub and spoke system if you are a peon living in one of the outer colonies........

[JakeLRS]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

With the arrival of the winter schedule, we are back down to only two Air Canada departures to YYZ daily from YQM. There are at 0510 hrs (!!!) and 2145 hrs. Obviously the only option for making connections in Toronto is the 0510 flight, but, Jesus Christ, you would have to wake up at 3 AM in order to make your flight. I mean, why the fuck even bother going to bed!!!

Ah, the joys of the hub and spoke system if you are a peon living in one of the outer colonies........

Now now, to be fair, YQM is ahead by a few hours so the departure time is established to meet a good chunk of YYZ connections.

But yes, I agree having the only two departures at polar opposite ends of the day is brutal.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

With the arrival of the winter schedule, we are back down to only two Air Canada departures to YYZ daily from YQM. There are at 0510 hrs (!!!) and 2145 hrs. Obviously the only option for making connections in Toronto is the 0510 flight, but, Jesus Christ, you would have to wake up at 3 AM in order to make your flight. I mean, why the fuck even bother going to bed!!!

Ah, the joys of the hub and spoke system if you are a peon living in one of the outer colonies........

Halifax Airport welcomes beleaguered New Brunswickers into its warm embrace. Just a couple of hours away by road. Give in to its convenience, its many choices. Yes, one has to rub elbows with uncouth Nova Scotians, but they’re not so bad. You can commiserate about the evil Central Canadians with them.

In all seriousness, AC Express is having some pretty serious pilot shortage issues, so admitting defeat at outstations for the time being instead of trying and failing operationally (schedule flight, then cancel) is probably a better plan.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

With the arrival of the winter schedule, we are back down to only two Air Canada departures to YYZ daily from YQM. There are at 0510 hrs (!!!) and 2145 hrs. Obviously the only option for making connections in Toronto is the 0510 flight, but, Jesus Christ, you would have to wake up at 3 AM in order to make your flight. I mean, why the fuck even bother going to bed!!!

Ah, the joys of the hub and spoke system if you are a peon living in one of the outer colonies........

That evening flight is actually at 745pm not 945pm, so it would get in to Toronto shortly after 9pm, and there are tons of connections to elsewhere in Canada as well as to Europe leaving after 10pm. You also have 2 AC flights to Montreal and the connections from there.