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  #61  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2020, 4:28 PM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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That risk is imaginary. It's not like toppling a Jenga stack, if inflation actually did start rising significantly, you'd just raise the interest rate and taxes.
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  #62  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2020, 4:36 PM
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That risk is imaginary. It's not like toppling a Jenga stack, if inflation actually did start rising significantly, you'd just raise the interest rate and taxes.
We can't raise rates. Both our people and government can't afford it. Even at our low rates interest payments are a significant portion of government budgets on all 3 levels. Can you imagine having to cut 5% from spending at all 3 levels if rates doubled?

Also taxes are seriously at their max. Already a comparable proportion of our GDP as Sweden is going to the government.
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  #63  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2020, 4:46 PM
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Here's my future scenario: Yes quite a few people will die which is shocking, but there will be a growing and enviable "club" of immune survivors who will be free to enjoy things as they please. Yes, there is risk of re-infection, but apparently not as serious.
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  #64  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2020, 4:59 PM
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Originally Posted by misher View Post
We can't raise rates. Both our people and government can't afford it. Even at our low rates interest payments are a significant portion of government budgets on all 3 levels. Can you imagine having to cut 5% from spending at all 3 levels if rates doubled?

Also taxes are seriously at their max. Already a comparable proportion of our GDP as Sweden is going to the government.
If we can't afford interest rate increases then there isn't inflation. Inflation does actually serve to reduce our CAD denominated debt.
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  #65  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2020, 5:50 PM
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Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal View Post
High inflation in Canada in the housing market. Other than that not much.
Exactly, which is why inflation will not help the debt situation. Traditional inflation would inflate GDP (ex. 6% real GDP growth with 2% real growth) to reduce debt to GDP. Over the last 10 years or so, inflation has pushed up asset prices but not real GDP. Much of the monetary stimulus has been wasted on driving up housing prices, which adds nothing to real GDP.
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  #66  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2020, 6:29 PM
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With the toilet paper crisis think bidets will make a comeback?

Never used one myself, it does seem "more" sanitary although I wouldn't want to share one.

Crazy to hear how widespread they are in many nations.

If I ever get a place I think I'll get a Japanese toilet with one and try to add it to my routine.

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  #67  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 2:50 AM
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I have a number of predictions.

- Telecommuting, or working remotely, will become much more acceptable to companies. I predict that a lot of companies that previously resisted remote work are going to look at all their empty offices during this time, see how their employees remained productive and got things done, and realize they don’t need all their employees coming into an office every day.

- Related to the above, huge investments in telecommunication infrastructure. Current infrastructure has not yet been fully tested on the new load of people trying to use teleconferencing software at the same time. I am already noticing slower Internet speeds, and even difficulty getting through on phone lines to dial into meetings.

- Increased telecommuting may lead to lower demand for public transit. I don’t think car sales will be impacted in the long term as people still need to go out to do other errands. This will have interesting effects on urban planning, and could spark an exodus out of cities like Toronto and Vancouver and lead to growth in some secondary cities and even rural areas.

- Increased health monitoring for people entering countries, particularly by air.

- A greater emphasis on hygiene. The current situation will lead people to form new habits.

We are living in a time of great societal change, in some ways not unlike the aftermath of 9/11.

I also predict that while neither Canada or the United States have peaked yet, both countries will start to level off in about 3 weeks in terms of active cases. China started to level off in late February after about 5 weeks of increasing cases and now only has a couple thousand active cases remaining, and Italy is now at a point where their rate of increase has started to decrease - still increasing in absolute numbers every day, but the percentage increase has been declining for a few days now. We should start seeing more “resolved” cases by the end of next week in North America as some of the cases diagnosed in the first week of March are passing the 14-day quarantine period. I also don’t believe Canada or the US will get as bad as Europe in terms of infection rate per capita; the rate increased in Italy very rapidly very early on, and while the US is seeing accelerated growth, it’s not to the same extent as Italy was when it had the same number per million the US currently has. Important to note the US has 5.5 times the population of Italy, so they’re likely to have more cases in absolute numbers, but I doubt it will reach the same rate per million nationally.

Last edited by manny_santos; Mar 19, 2020 at 3:02 AM.
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  #68  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 3:35 AM
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Originally Posted by misher View Post
With the toilet paper crisis think bidets will make a comeback?

Never used one myself, it does seem "more" sanitary although I wouldn't want to share one.

Crazy to hear how widespread they are in many nations.

If I ever get a place I think I'll get a Japanese toilet with one and try to add it to my routine.

Wow I predicted this!

Quote:
Toilet paper hoarding flushes out bidet market
https://biv.com/article/2020/03/toil...t-bidet-market
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  #69  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 3:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manny_santos View Post
I have a number of predictions.

- Telecommuting, or working remotely, will become much more acceptable to companies. I predict that a lot of companies that previously resisted remote work are going to look at all their empty offices during this time, see how their employees remained productive and got things done, and realize they don’t need all their employees coming into an office every day.

- Related to the above, huge investments in telecommunication infrastructure. Current infrastructure has not yet been fully tested on the new load of people trying to use teleconferencing software at the same time. I am already noticing slower Internet speeds, and even difficulty getting through on phone lines to dial into meetings.

- Increased telecommuting may lead to lower demand for public transit. I don’t think car sales will be impacted in the long term as people still need to go out to do other errands. This will have interesting effects on urban planning, and could spark an exodus out of cities like Toronto and Vancouver and lead to growth in some secondary cities and even rural areas.

- Increased health monitoring for people entering countries, particularly by air.

- A greater emphasis on hygiene. The current situation will lead people to form new habits.

We are living in a time of great societal change, in some ways not unlike the aftermath of 9/11.

I also predict that while neither Canada or the United States have peaked yet, both countries will start to level off in about 3 weeks in terms of active cases. China started to level off in late February after about 5 weeks of increasing cases and now only has a couple thousand active cases remaining, and Italy is now at a point where their rate of increase has started to decrease - still increasing in absolute numbers every day, but the percentage increase has been declining for a few days now. We should start seeing more “resolved” cases by the end of next week in North America as some of the cases diagnosed in the first week of March are passing the 14-day quarantine period. I also don’t believe Canada or the US will get as bad as Europe in terms of infection rate per capita; the rate increased in Italy very rapidly very early on, and while the US is seeing accelerated growth, it’s not to the same extent as Italy was when it had the same number per million the US currently has. Important to note the US has 5.5 times the population of Italy, so they’re likely to have more cases in absolute numbers, but I doubt it will reach the same rate per million nationally.

I hope Italy can get it going back in the downward trend again but they’ve started climbing hard last couple days.
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  #70  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 3:43 AM
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Originally Posted by misher View Post
If I ever get a place
Wait, you're renting? What's the problem with you? You hate money? Buy already!

It only ever goes up!
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  #71  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 4:00 AM
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Wait, you're renting? What's the problem with you? You hate money? Buy already!

It only ever goes up!
Am saving ^^. I'd never buy a place in Vancouver because the rent to price ratio is too little (its a great deal to rent here).

Maybe will buy in a suburb once I got my 20%.
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  #72  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 12:41 PM
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#655024752988

This article has a few out there assumptions but one thing is clear (to me at least), the farming out of critical items like surgical masks and drugs to other countries does not help in a time in crisis. You may see a return to Canada of certain types of manufacturing that we farmed out to so called cheaper areas.
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  #73  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 1:24 PM
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I'll take an opposite stance to the telecommuting.

Many employees are treating this as a mini staycation. They don't have an adequate home office or IT support. Their kids are home from school causing low productivity.

When this is over senior management across the country will blame telecommuting for low productivity without recognizing the extenuating circumstances. I suspect we'll see a reversal on allowing telecommuting from most employers.
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  #74  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 1:38 PM
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We're experiencing an interesting phenomenon here...

My dept has been slowly rolling out VDI (virtual desktops) for the past 2 years. Uptake has been steady, but with a stubborn group of hangers-on who make excuses for not going (ie: "not all my software works 100% right").

We went to on-prem VOIP along with be-anywhere software phones 5 years ago as well.

This current situation is opening a lot of eyes... once they realize they can have the same work environment from home without taking home any hardware at all. The nay-sayers are clamoring for access.
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  #75  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 1:57 PM
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A few that I have been thinking of:

- It's totally unrelated to COVID-19, but I think anti-vaxxers might be collateral damage once all of the dust settles. Tolerance for personal choices that might put public health at risk will be at an all-time low. We were somewhat tolerant of anti-vaxxers up until now precisely because there have been few serious consequences to their behaviour. I don't think "so far so good" is going to cut it anymore.

- Younger professionals who value professional freedom and work as independents, free agents or contractors but end up being hit hard by the economic crisis might not longer look down on more stable (but "boring") employers like government, paragovernmental and other more stable institutions that offer guaranteed pay no matter what (pretty much). If the crisis ends up being very painful, I'd expect a flood of younger applicants in the latter employment field.
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  #76  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 2:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN View Post
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#655024752988

This article has a few out there assumptions but one thing is clear (to me at least), the farming out of critical items like surgical masks and drugs to other countries does not help in a time in crisis. You may see a return to Canada of certain types of manufacturing that we farmed out to so called cheaper areas.
All these people ecstatic about the end of globalization and the punishment of China are in for disappointment, is my prediction. The globalization of supply chains gave us everything cheaper, and thus more plentiful. Undoing that will reverse it, we'll have less of the stuff we need.

How does a country decide what is critical and what isn't? Sure we might have shortages of masks and certain drugs right now, but any number of things could be critical at some point, but usually aren't. If we built factories in Canada for the things that were useful for fighting this crisis then we'll just end up with expensive factories until they might be needed again in 50, a hundred years or never. Perhaps having multiple, disconnected, vendors for products will be a requirement in the future but I don't think we're going to see every country close its borders and go back to the 1800's.
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  #77  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 2:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
All these people ecstatic about the end of globalization and the punishment of China are in for disappointment, is my prediction. The globalization of supply chains gave us everything cheaper, and thus more plentiful. Undoing that will reverse it, we'll have less of the stuff we need.

How does a country decide what is critical and what isn't? Sure we might have shortages of masks and certain drugs right now, but any number of things could be critical at some point, but usually aren't. If we built factories in Canada for the things that were useful for fighting this crisis then we'll just end up with expensive factories until they might be needed again in 50, a hundred years or never. Perhaps having multiple, disconnected, vendors for products will be a requirement in the future but I don't think we're going to see every country close its borders and go back to the 1800's.
The never ending search for cheaper and less regulation entities to set up factories is a zero sum game as more and more countries are not willing to sacrifice their culture and environment for a terrible factory. Africa will be the final frontier for this movement.

As for cheaper, ask the city of Victoria if it was cheaper to get their steel for the new bridge from China. After all the delays from the poor quality and time lost it would have been far more economical to get more expensive and higher quality steel from Canada.
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  #78  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 2:39 PM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN View Post
The never ending search for cheaper and less regulation entities to set up factories is a zero sum game as more and more countries are not willing to sacrifice their culture and environment for a terrible factory. Africa will be the final frontier for this movement.

As for cheaper, ask the city of Victoria if it was cheaper to get their steel for the new bridge from China. After all the delays from the poor quality and time lost it would have been far more economical to get more expensive and higher quality steel from Canada.
If the end result of globalization is every country moving up the value chain and improving their economy enough through trade, such that they start to resemble western countries, what exactly is bad about that? It's a very Trumpian way of viewing the world to think that it's better that both us and the exporting country are poorer, so long as we are less poor.

And if it's cheaper in the long run to use Canadian goods because they are better? Fine, procure those goods. Nothing stopping anyone doing that and if they are not then it is incompetence on their part.
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  #79  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 2:41 PM
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Here's a refreshingly positive & hopeful take on this. It's about the US, but could just as well apply to anywhere else - if not the whole world. Aside from a bit of ugliness - people fighting over toilet paper, racism against Chinese people, price gouging, etc - I have to say I've mostly been feeling a great sense of kinship & inspiration from my fellow humans with how we're handling this.


Quote:
What Americans Are Doing Now Is Beautiful

The public’s response to the coronavirus will stand as a remarkable moment of national mobilization.

6:15 AM ET
Garrett M. Graff


The worry and unease about COVID-19 feels so inescapable that Americans can easily miss the sheer beauty of what is unfolding across the country right now. Yes, we are approaching errands that were routine just a week ago—to the hardware store or the grocery store—with the same wariness that we might bring to an Arctic exploration. Yet if we take a step back from the panic-buying of toilet paper, the response to COVID-19 should stand as one of the most beautiful moments in our country’s long history—a moment of shared, galvanizing national spirit that has existed in perhaps only in a handful of epochal years before, like 1776, 1861, 1933, and 1941, and, in modern times, after 9/11.

We are witnessing people everywhere, acting mostly independently but all together, shutting our country down—a move that ensures millions will face a massive, incalculable economic hit—to give the weakest among us a better chance against the novel coronavirus. We are each sacrificing our daily routines—our gyms and coffee shops and offices—to keep health-care professionals from becoming overwhelmed..

“Flattening the curve,” a phrase few of us had heard of a month ago, has arrived as an urgent national mantra akin to Rosie the Riveter’s “We can do it.” This call to arms reminds us how those on the front lines—the vulnerable (and equally scared) doctors, nurses, EMTs, paramedics, and other health-care professionals—benefit when all of us do our own little bit, and, in turn, how helping those first responders gives the inevitable patients, whoever they may end up being, the best chance of survival.

It is a collective act of almost unprecedented community spirit, a fundamental statement of how we stand together as a species. The many act to protect the few—an almost tribal, communitarian instinct that is all too rare in modern life.

...

As the journalist Matthew Zeitlin wrote on Twitter, “One way to think about social distancing is that to contribute to a great national cause in World War II you had to, like, die face down in the muck on some tiny pacific island, now you can literally stay at home, watch the sopranos or that Netflix dating show and be a hero.”

For many people, forgoing familiar rituals—the calm of faith services or the reinforcement of an Alcoholics Anonymous meeting—comes at a significant emotional cost. Moreover, the anxiety of the moment is real, both for ourselves and for our families, friends, and loved ones. Precisely because a sense of dread is entirely warranted, celebrating taking these drastic steps we are taking as a society becomes all the more important.

Even before federal and state leaders began ordering closures and cancellations in recent days, any number of small-business owners, restaurateurs, local mayors and officials, artists, and individuals provided leadership by prioritizing the collective health above their own profit motives or desperate need for income. We must recognize that truth, the collective-ness of this moment, and the mutual regard we all hold together for our communities and the most vulnerable among us in order to understand that the effect of turning off daily life with the suddenness of a light switch is actually as inspirational as it is a short-term hardship.

...

The path ahead—surely weeks and likely months—will be hard. The usual negativity of our politics will be very much on display as Congress debates potential aid packages for the industries and individuals harmed by the pandemic, and as President Donald Trump’s critics and defenders Monday-morning-quarterback the government fumbles that worsened the economic and human pain of the epidemic on America’s shores. That makes it all the more important, for this one moment—at the quickening point of the crisis—to pause and reflect on the sheer wonder of what we’re all doing, together.

The most isolating thing most of us has ever done is, ironically, almost surely the most collective experience we’ve ever had in our lifetimes.

Full article: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...t-2020/608308/
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  #80  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 2:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
If the end result of globalization is every country moving up the value chain and improving their economy enough through trade, such that they start to resemble western countries, what exactly is bad about that? It's a very Trumpian way of viewing the world to think that it's better that both us and the exporting country are poorer, so long as we are less poor.

And if it's cheaper in the long run to use Canadian goods because they are better? Fine, procure those goods. Nothing stopping anyone doing that and if they are not then it is incompetence on their part.
Plus, I've always thought that having poorer countries become rich(er) is a plus for us because that means more people will be able to afford the stuff we produce.

Right now, lots of markets in the developing world are basically nil for us because the population simply can't afford our products and services.
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