The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[Franco401]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

July 1, 2014 CMA population estimates will be released on Wednesday: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/dai-quo/upc..._venir-eng.htm

2006-2013 estimates: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...0/t001-eng.htm

Things to look at:

- Toronto should reach 6MM
- Montreal should reach 4MM
- Edmonton may surpass Ottawa to become the 5th largest CMA
- Whether or not Saint John declines again
- Whether or not Moncton can hold its 1.5%+ annual growth rate (from the past 5 years)

Also, whether Fredericton surpasses 100k and becomes a CMA. St. George and Dumbarton are now included and Stanley meets the requirements and should be included as of Census 2016. Not sure if this release covers that however.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Franco401

Also, whether Fredericton surpasses 100k and becomes a CMA. St. George and Dumbarton are now included and Stanley meets the requirements and should be included as of Census 2016. Not sure if this release covers that however.

Freddy may pass 100k, but the decision for it to be a CMA rests with Statistics Canada and probably won't happen till 2021 or 2026. Sorry.......

[Taeolas]

Yeah their rules are that we need to have the CMA pop numbers for 2 census's or something right? At least if we pass the 100k milestone, we'll be on the final countdown for CMA status.

[Franco401]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Yeah their rules are that we need to have the CMA pop numbers for 2 census's or something right? At least if we pass the 100k milestone, we'll be on the final countdown for CMA status.

Gotcha. I'm assuming Stanley will be included, as it meets the inflow requirements (source 1, source 2). The village and parish together have about a population of about 1600 (2011 figure, source, but bear in mind in was in decline), and St. George, Dumbarton, Fredericton Junction, Tracy, Gladstone and Manners Sutton are now included for the first time, should push us over 100,000 (source 1 source 2 source 3) for good, and that's not even including the growth in Fredericton itself and surrounding areas (NM, Douglas, Hanwell).

If that was all part of our CA in '11, our CA population would be 102,084 and we'd already be in line for CMAship, maybe even this year.

[Taeolas]

Yeah, if you look back to when the numbers came out in '11, we were lamenting about how close we were to meeting the criteria back then. IIRC we were just a few thousand off then. Still as you noted, we should clear the population hurdles easily now, so it's just a matter of time (barring a complete population implosion) before a province with 750k people gets 3 CMA's.

[swish]

Here is hoping that Fredericton gets its due as seems to get less attention than it deserves! but the same thing can be said for much of the region.

[pierremoncton]

Here's the release: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...50211a-eng.htm

2014 table: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...11a001-eng.htm

Comparison to 2006-2013: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...0/t001-eng.htm

CMA --- 2014 estimate --- 2013 estimate --- change
Moncton --- 146,073 --- 144,941 --- +0.8%
Saint John --- 127,314 --- 127,883 --- -0.4%
Halifax --- 414,398 --- 408,702 --- +1.4%
St. John's --- 211,724 --- 208,372 --- +1.6%

Also: Toronto did reach 6MM; Montreal reached 4MM; and Edmonton surpassed Ottawa.

[ErickMontreal]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

Here's the release: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...50211a-eng.htm

2014 table: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...11a001-eng.htm

Comparison to 2006-2013: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...0/t001-eng.htm

CMA --- 2014 estimate --- 2013 estimate --- change
Moncton --- 146,073 --- 144,941 --- +0.8%
Saint John --- 127,314 --- 127,883 --- -0.4%
Halifax --- 414,398 --- 408,702 --- +1.4%
St. John's --- 211,724 --- 208,372 --- +1.6%

Also: Toronto did reach 6MM; Montreal reached 4MM; and Edmonton surpassed Ottawa.

Honestly, I am not overly surprised by Saint John, Saint John has consistently underperformed economically and risks remaining economically stagnant unless job growth picks up. In some extent, the whole southwestern NB has been declining a steady pace for quite sometime. Moncton has overperfomed on all levels over the last 20 years.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

Saint John --- 127,314 --- 127,883 --- -0.4%

Only CMA in the country to register a decline in population between 2011 and 2014. Utterly depressing.

[MonctonRad]

Moncton's growth rate is cooling a bit too. It's under 1% from last year.

EDIT:

This table actually shows a Moncton growth rate in 2013-14 of 1.15%



I'm busy at work and can't do any detailed analysis. Maybe later.........

[pierremoncton]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

This table actually shows a Moncton growth rate in 2013-14 of 1.15%

The 2006-2013 table I posted earlier: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...0/t001-eng.htm

The newly-released 2010-2014 table: http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...ataTable&csid=

Looks like they revised numbers from 2012 and 2013. I don't understand why they offer two different data sets, but this is why the 2014 growth percentages I posted don't match yours.

[mylesmalley]

The region's ageing demographics are going to hurt these numbers more and more over time, but I wouldn't try to take too much away from a bad year or two.

[MonctonRad]

I had hoped that by the next census (2016), that the Moncton CMA would have cracked 150,000 people, but at the current growth rate it would seem that 148,500 might be a more realistic projection.

[David_99]

There's no where to see estimated current population numbers for the cities themselves is there? (i.e. City of Moncton vs Moncton CMA)

[KnoxfordGuy]

I wish we could see the numbers for Fredericton

[cl812]

Originally Posted by Franco401

Gotcha. I'm assuming Stanley will be included, as it meets the inflow requirements (source 1, source 2). The village and parish together have about a population of about 1600 (2011 figure, source, but bear in mind in was in decline), and St. George, Dumbarton, Fredericton Junction, Tracy, Gladstone and Manners Sutton are now included for the first time, should push us over 100,000 (source 1 source 2 source 3) for good, and that's not even including the growth in Fredericton itself and surrounding areas (NM, Douglas, Hanwell).

If that was all part of our CA in '11, our CA population would be 102,084 and we'd already be in line for CMAship, maybe even this year.

Its too bad Oromocto/Burton area arent included in the CA either, given the extreme proximity, you could easily add another 10-12k onto that. Unforntuantely given the fact that most residents are employed at the base and dont commute to Fredericton for work that will likely never change.

[mylesmalley]

Oromocto would be included if the census tracts that surround it get included into Fredericton's CA/CMA.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Nice to see St. John's continuing on strong. I suspected that the population might level off around 220,000 but with that kind of growth we might be lucky enough to make it 230,000, especially if the Galway neighbourhood sub-city gets developed.

[MonctonRad]

This is just to show the growth of the Atlantic Canadian CMA's over the course of the last decade:

Atlantic Canadian CMA Populations: 2004-2014

City____________2004 Pop_____2014 Pop_____Change____% Change

Halifax.....................380,623..............414,398............33,775...........8.9%
St. John's.................181,632..............211,724............30,092..........16.6%
Moncton...................127,048..............146,073............19,025..........15.0%
Saint John................125,786..............127,314..............1,528............1.2%

St. John's is doing extremely well, and has just about been keeping up with Halifax in terms of absolute growth, and has been the trendsetter in terms of relative growth rate.

[someone123]

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of years, since the economy seems to be entering into a different state, maybe similar to what we saw around 2008-2009, or maybe there will be an even bigger shift. Lowered growth in places like Alberta might cause more people to stay in cities like Saint John rather than move away. A lower dollar may also help the Maritimes, though the combined low dollar + low oil are a net negative for NF. NS collects more in natural gas royalties and the prices for that commodity already tanked years ago.