Atlantic Travel Bubble (COVID-19)

[J81]

Originally Posted by ScovaNotian

Protecting the vulnerable is one concern. Another one is that a not insignificant proportion of those that are infected end up in hospital, often for extended periods of time. There simply isn't the capacity to let this run unchecked. We may be able to have a higher proportion of the population infected than we do now without health care systems breaking down. However, it might become harder to control and in the end result in the need to reenact tighter restrictions.

This is not true. Less than 10% of NBs cases ended up in hospital. That is a pretty insignificant number if u ask me. Theres is a entire floor at the Moncton hospital sitting vacant for covid only just incase while the sick and elderly remain in beds in the halls. The initial reaction to this all was probably justified although late but to carry on this way for the foreseeable future is unnecessary especially for a province in the financial situation NB is in.

I can promise u all one thing. The toll this has taken on the healthy will far outweigh the toll its taken on the sick and elderly.

[ScovaNotian]

Originally Posted by J81

This is not true. Less than 10% of NBs cases ended up in hospital. That is a pretty insignificant number if u ask me. Theres is a entire floor at the Moncton hospital sitting vacant for covid only just incase while the sick and elderly remain in beds in the halls. The initial reaction to this all was probably justified although late but to carry on this way for the foreseeable future is unnecessary especially for a province in the financial situation NB is in.

I don't consider 10% insignificant. From what I understand, to achieve herd immunity more than 50 percent of the population need to be infected. If 5 percent of the infected ended up in hospital, then this would be 25,000 people in Nova Scotia. The Nova Scotia Health Authority in 2016/17 oversaw 3,500 hospital beds, and those don't usually sit empty. I suspect that intensive care beds are even more scarce.

[J81]

Originally Posted by ScovaNotian

I don't consider 10% insignificant. From what I understand, to achieve herd immunity more than 50 percent of the population need to be infected. If 5 percent of the infected ended up in hospital, then this would be 25,000 people in Nova Scotia. The Nova Scotia Health Authority in 2016/17 oversaw 3,500 hospital beds, and those don't usually sit empty. I suspect that intensive care beds are even more scarce.

Lets all make up more numbers to scare people into submission. NB was supposed to have 1800 covid deaths by the end of April. We didnt have a single one until the other day.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by J81

Lets all make up more numbers to scare people into submission. NB was supposed to have 1800 covid deaths by the end of April. We didnt have a single one until the other day.

Better to be overly cautious than the opposite.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Better to be overly cautious than the opposite.

Even better to be exactly as cautious as the situation warrants.

We know now that the projections of March and April were wrong, and hugely pessimistic compared to what played out in reality, so it's time to adapt.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by someone123

Even better to be exactly as cautious as the situation warrants.

We know now that the projections of March and April were wrong, and hugely pessimistic compared to what played out in reality, so it's time to adapt.

and its not like this disease has proven to be nothing... 400,000+ deaths worldwide and that's with social distancing practices happening in many countries. I think here in NB we got lucky with the timing of our march break to avoid a bigger early outbreak like NS had, and it never got into care homes until now. With the 9 new cases today I hope we can avoid the unfortunate circumstances that fell at north wood and other care homes. 1 more death and we are at over 1% death rate. Surprised to see people trying to downplay the virus after we can see other examples. We kept cases low and so that kept our deaths low too.

Of course it seems we'll never truly know how many were asymptomatic. I'd love to see a full scale anti body study done here.

Having said that, and this is completely for bias reasons but I do hope we see the atlantic bubble. Given the situation in all 3 provinces I don't see there to be more risk being a New Brunswicker travelling to NS than if I were to go for a day trip to SJ and stop in a restaurant, now that all businesses have had time to get equipment, cleaning supplies, distancing signage etc.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by lirette

and its not like this disease has proven to be nothing... 400,000+ deaths worldwide and that's with social distancing practices happening in many countries. I think here in NB we got lucky with the timing of our march break to avoid a bigger early outbreak like NS had, and it never got into care homes until now. With the 9 new cases today I hope we can avoid the unfortunate circumstances that fell at north wood and other care homes. 1 more death and we are at over 1% death rate. Surprised to see people trying to downplay the virus after we can see other examples. We kept cases low and so that kept our deaths low too.

Of course it seems we'll never truly know how many were asymptomatic. I'd love to see a full scale anti body study done here.

Having said that, and this is completely for bias reasons but I do hope we see the atlantic bubble. Given the situation in all 3 provinces I don't see there to be more risk being a New Brunswicker travelling to NS than if I were to go for a day trip to SJ and stop in a restaurant, now that all businesses have had time to get equipment, cleaning supplies, distancing signage etc.

We did get lucky and thankfully the virus really isn't the Spanish flu or black plague. I hope this does put public health spending and local medical equipment manufacturing more on the minds of politicians in the future. This was a good practice run for when the big one hits.

That said we have made these imaginary lines in the dirt that the virus really doesn't care about. Is a province like Alberta or SK that are much larger than the maritimes can work it out so can we. Policy is not much different between the three provinces anyways.

Personally I can't wait to travel for work (in the Arctic) and not have to isolate when I come home. That is getting really old, but in the mean time this is a great and practical first step.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by someone123

Even better to be exactly as cautious as the situation warrants.

Hindsight is 20/20. We really don't know how serious a situation was or how we should have acted until after the fact. That applies to the current day, as well.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Hindsight is 20/20. We really don't know how serious a situation was or how we should have acted until after the fact. That applies to the current day, as well.

I would argue that the public health measures we enacted actually worked, and that the low incidence of disease that we are seeing is directly as a result of shutting things down as quickly as we did.

So, now, people look around and think "what's all the fuss about", and grumble that the government and public health services grossly overreacted, shutting down the economy for no good reason.

In reality, public health did what was necessary, and did it just in the nick of time. Even a couple of days delay at the beginning of the pandemic could have made all the difference, especially with all the Canadian citizens being repatriated from abroad. Any one of these people could have been infected, and could infect dozens of others. In my mind, the Maritimes dodged a bullet here.

Now we have the contagion under control. Yes, there will be locallized outbreaks (like in the Restigouche), but these flare-ups can be easily controlled because they are localized. Because of this, we can open things up now, while maintaining vigilance, and directing our resources appropriately. I think we should be able to open our internal borders between the Maritime provinces.

A good analogy is that with an uncontrolled forest fire, you throw everything at it, including water bombers to beat it down, but even after the fire is under control, you still have to send in fire crews here and there to deal with hot spots. We are in the hot spot phase of the pandemic now; we don't need the water bombers any more, but we still need the fire crews on standby for the inevitable flare-ups.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I would argue that the public health measures we enacted actually worked, and that the low incidence of disease that we are seeing is directly as a result of shutting things down as quickly as we did.

So, now, people look around and think "what's all the fuss about", and grumble that the government and public health services grossly overreacted, shutting down the economy for no good reason.

My standard response to most friends I have online initially griped about how we were overreacting, was to say "I hope several months down the road that you are still able to say we overreacting, because that will mean the death toll was low and everything we went through was worth it".

Same people who said that we overreacted at Y2K because nothing happened.

[q12]

Atlantic premiers committed to opening regional borders by early July, King says

Atlantic Canadians should be able to travel within the four provinces sometime in early July, P.E.I. Premier Dennis King said following a meeting of the region's premiers Wednesday evening.

The so-called Atlantic bubble has been discussed for some time now.

King said the premiers are committed to providing safe and efficient travel in the region without the need to self-isolate.

"There seems to be agreement from all premiers that if the epidemiology continues on the trajectory that it's on that we could probably see some Atlantic bubbling sometime in early July," King said.

"If something were to happen that might cause one of the provinces to hold back, we might very well see two provinces start, another one may join a few days later so we don't really have a hard and fast date."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/princ...rism-1.5607196

[lirette]

Originally Posted by q12

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/princ...rism-1.5607196

My guess is they'll announce something in the next week or so. I know certain measures were being extended to June 19th.

I'm sure local businesses would really appreciate the notice, particularly cottage rentals that may have lost reservations from travellers outside the maritime provinces. Its clear they've been talking about July for quite sometime and I'm sure thats not by mistake. It at least gives an expectation for a worried business owner that relies on tourism.

[MonctonRad]

I'm glad to see common sense prevail. The Maritimes (and to a lesser extent, all of Atlantic Canada) are a single economic unit. It is vital we re-establish cross border movement of people.

Strangely, as of right now, it is NB which is most at risk of being left out of the "bubble", and this depends entirely on what happens over the next two weeks. All but one of the current cases in NB however are in Restigouche County, and the vast majority of those are tied to the nursing home outbreak, so I am personally not too concerned that this is a major obstacle. If wider community spread does begin to happen however, then all bets are off.

As it stands now, I kinda think the border is pretty leaky. I am impressed by the number of NS licence plates I see in Moncton every day, and I don't think they're all here for vital medical appointments.........

[lirette]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I'm glad to see common sense prevail. The Maritimes (and to a lesser extent, all of Atlantic Canada) are a single economic unit. It is vital we re-establish cross border movement of people.

Strangely, as of right now, it is NB which is most at risk of being left out of the "bubble", and this depends entirely on what happens over the next two weeks. All but one of the current cases in NB however are in Restigouche County, and the vast majority of those are tied to the nursing home outbreak, so I am personally not too concerned that this is a major obstacle. If wider community spread does begin to happen however, then all bets are off.

As it stands now, I kinda think the border is pretty leaky. I am impressed by the number of NS licence plates I see in Moncton every day, and I don't think they're all here for vital medical appointments.........

I've also heard anecdotal reports of tons of Quebec plates in tourist places like camper parks in NB. You know that not all those folks are isolating in their trailers for 14 days without needing to go for supplies and whatnot. There was definitely an initial feel and perception that the borders were shut tight but its clear that is not really the case. If anything that is more evidence that opening up the borders for the rest of us is less risky, now that businesses have social distance protocols and masks are encouraged. As long as we can test & contract trace I am confident we can keep the spread contained.

[Djeffery]

I know of one Ontario plate in NB, my parents. They used to split their year with winter in Florida, summer at the trailer in Ontario and Spring and Fall in NB. They sold the Ontario trailer last year with the intent to make NB home year round with some travel mixed in, figuring after 30 years of owning the place on the water, they should start to enjoy it in the summer (I always told them they had their Ont/NB seasons backwards lol). They haven't changed any of their info over to NB yet, so she still gets dirty looks at the grocery store even though they have been in NB since Thanksgiving lol.

[someone123]

It's a bit weird McNeil is talking about making sure the NS case numbers are low. The last time NS recorded a double-digit daily increase in active cases was May 4, 5 weeks ago.

[Photo1]

Just as long as they keep all restrictions on Quebec and Maine...I'm reasonably ok with an "Atlantic Bubble".

NB > PEI first...for 2-4 weeks...then bring on NS.

Promote the Atlantic "staycation" this summer.

Anyone coming from outside that bubble, especially Quebec/Ontario have to self isolate for at least 14 if they are allowed in at all.

[q12]

Originally Posted by Photo1

NB > PEI first...for 2-4 weeks...then bring on NS.

New Brunswick has 29 active cases vs. Nova Scotia with only 4 active cases. Why would P.E.I. with 0 active cases want to open up to New Brunswick first?

Currently Nova Scotia and P.E.I. make more sense to start the bubble and then add N.B. after their numbers come back down.

In my opinion New Brunswick's numbers are still pretty low that opening up all the Atlantic provinces together is very reasonable and manageable.

[Taeolas]

I think the important thing to consider is where those active cases are and what the context of those cases are.

If NB had 30ish cases spread out across the province, then we are certainly in no shape to open up.

But in NB's case, we have 28 cases in 1 northern area, all contained and tracked and well understood. (and 1 case in Moncton that is contained but a bit concerning because it is a TFW). Holding off on Provincial bubbling until we're sure that Moncton case isn't another hot spot would be understandable. And by then hopefully Campbellton will be on the downswing as well.

It's this sort of thinking behind why people were suggesting bubbling with Nova Scotia when it still had a lot of active cases as well; because back then NS's active cases were highly concentrated in their own care facility, and not wider spread in the province.

Giving encouraging signs of a July Maritime Bubble lets businesses and groups start preparing (and improves morale in general), but it comes with the caveat that if things go south, the bubble will be delayed. And as we get closer to possible bubble dates, the governments can start giving firmer details of what to expect and what is allowed.

[ScovaNotian]

Originally Posted by J81

Lets all make up more numbers to scare people into submission. NB was supposed to have 1800 covid deaths by the end of April. We didnt have a single one until the other day.

What number do you think I made up? The 10 percent hospitalization rate was your figure; I cut it in half. The provincial population presumably isn't up for debate and the number of hospital beds is taken from here. The figure required for herd immunity is low-balled; based on Covid's R0 value, this site suggests that a 70 percent infection rate may be required.

My first priority for now is that kids will be able to go back to school in September. With current infection rates, this seems feasible. What jurisdiction that has laxer restrictions in place would you like to emulate? What restrictions that are currently in place would you like to see lifted? Looking at the development of infection rates in many states south of the border, I'm quite happy with our trajectory.