Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by David_99

I have some older co-workers that are convinced that fracking the hell out of the Province is a good thing and all we need to turn things around, create jobs and pay back the debt. A "no brainer", they say.........

A lot of older people, especially in Saint John it seems, think that a big silver bullet project will save the city and/or province. Usually these projects are big economic, natural resource projects (second refinery, fracking, etc.). These sorts of people don't seem to understand or value the concept of diversifying the economy and not hedging all your chips on single projects with limited lifespans. Lately things have been becoming more diversified, and the more that NB's population centralizes in the south and the easier it is to provide services to them at a reasonable level, the more likely it is that surpluses will be in reach and the debt will be paid down. Or not.

Fracking would have been a good idea 10-15 years ago but as it stands now, with prices low and other regions in North America operating at full capacity, I really don't see the upside that a lot of people project. Ship has sailed, IMO.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The way around this is to create legislation where the decision to frack or not is decided at a local or municipal level.

Then why even have a province? Why don't we just split off into 150 separate fiefdoms and territories?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Then why even have a province? Why don't we just split off into 150 separate fiefdoms and territories?

The alternative is to have Brian Gallant pander to indigenous people and rural residents of Kent County by applying a province wide ban, when fracking is still taking place in Sussex, providing jobs to a troubled economy, but not allowing any new fracking to occur in Sussex to maintain the industry. Why should activists in Kent County dictate what should or should not occur in Kings County?

Its similar to my own viewpoint as to how bilingualism should be applied in the province. You've said yourself that Moncton is pretty much the only place where large numbers of both francophones and anglophones coexist, while other parts of the province are either 95% anglophone or francophone. To that end, I would let individual counties or municipalities decide how bilingualism should be applied. I think there would end up being a whole lot less tension over the issue.......

[Fischbob]

I'm still holding out hope that the NDP will be able to make a breakthrough in Saint John Harbour (my riding). While the overall poll aggregation doesn't look good for them, there are a few points to keep in mind:

- The two most recent polls in the CBC tracker have a huge variation in the reported level of NDP support: 3% for Mainstreet Research and 10% for Nanos. Factoring in margins of error that could mean anywhere from 0 to 14% support province-wide.
- While the published opinion polls are reasonably statistically sound when considering popular vote, riding-by-riding predictions are a different story. Most polls during the campaign only sampled around 500 people - that's just over 10 observations per riding (assuming equal sampling across ridings).
- Saint John Harbour has historically been a close 3-way race between the Liberals, PCs and NDP, and was an NDP stronghold during the leadership of Elizabeth Weir. If it can happen anywhere, it'll happen here.

It will no doubt be an uphill battle for McKenzie, as she's up against two candidates with a lot of name recognition. We'll see how things work out tomorrow - I'd really like to see the NDP find some representation in the Legislature.

[MonctonRad]

Election day in NB.

As the former head of my department used to say - "vote early, vote often"

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The alternative is to have Brian Gallant pander to indigenous people and rural residents of Kent County by applying a province wide ban, when fracking is still taking place in Sussex, providing jobs to a troubled economy, but not allowing any new fracking to occur in Sussex to maintain the industry. Why should activists in Kent County dictate what should or should not occur in Kings County?

That's why we have elections. If you don't like Brian Gallant you're free to vote against him today. Perhaps vote for someone who views provincial matters more in line with your own? If you really think fracking is important then vote for a party that supports it.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Its similar to my own viewpoint as to how bilingualism should be applied in the province. You've said yourself that Moncton is pretty much the only place where large numbers of both francophones and anglophones coexist, while other parts of the province are either 95% anglophone or francophone. To that end, I would let individual counties or municipalities decide how bilingualism should be applied. I think there would end up being a whole lot less tension over the issue.......

Again, this defeats the entire purpose of operating under a single provincial entity. Unlike natural resource development, NB's bilingual policies are enshrined in the repatriated Constitution Act of 1982, so it's essentially law for eternity unless you can find some fancy legal workaround (like, say, disbanding New Brunswick and not having the 1982 provisions apply to the new territory), which presumably would still require the 7/50% rule.

We stopped using counties as anything meaningful because the servicing and administrative costs were too high for such a small coverage area.

[Feneant]

This election will clearly show just how ridiculous our electoral system is. The Green, NDP and PA will likely get between 25-30% of the vote but yet will be lucky to win 4-5 of the seats in the house. That means the votes of at least a quarter of us are basically wasted- and yet they wonder why a lot of people don't bother voting?

As a (French acadian no less) People's Alliance supporter, this makes me angry. The latest polls are showing the support of ~13% of the population but yet it's rigged in such a way that I might as well not have bothered to vote at all.

[CodiacCanuck]

Originally Posted by Feneant

This election will clearly show just how ridiculous our electoral system is. The Green, NDP and PA will likely get between 25-30% of the vote but yet will be lucky to win 4-5 of the seats in the house. That means the votes of at least a quarter of us are basically wasted- and yet they wonder why a lot of people don't bother voting?

If the People's Alliance is in this for the long haul, and they can get enough New Brunswickers to follow their policy, their voting base will grow. Not all things happen overnight... it may take until the next election for them to make a noticeable impact.

[JHikka]

Prediction:

PC - 24
LIB - 22
GRN - 2
PA - 1

Ideal situation. PC Minority propped up by Greens, with votes able to be lead by both PCs and Liberals in the legislature with the support of both Greens/PA.

[MonctonRad]

I think I'll stick with my prediction:

LIB - 26 seats
PC - 20 seats
GRN - 2 seats
PA - 1 seat

The only reason why JHikka's prediction might be more accurate is because a lot of the LIB vote will be "inefficient" (i.e. - huge majorities in the francophone north and east). If the PC vote is extraordinarily efficient, he might be correct.

[MonctonRad]

Projection is for a minority government. PC's currently ahead 22-20

Peoples Alliance doing surprisingly well currently elected and leading in 4

GRN have 3

[Taeolas]

After stable most of the night, Saint John Harbour just flipped to the liberals; but there is still 1 poll to go and 11 votes separating Libs vs PCs.

Memramcook-Tantramar has 1 poll left as well and 11 votes between Green and Liberals.

Of the 13 undecided seats left, most are waiting on 1 or 2 polls, and there are a number that are within a hundred votes going either way.

Minority seems to be given at the moment, and either the Greens or the Alliance could be kingmakers because of it.

[Marty_Mcfly]

So what exactly happens if the Liberals and PC's split at 21 seats each? I've never even considered this as an outcome of an election before.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

So what exactly happens if the Liberals and PC's split at 21 seats each? I've never even considered this as an outcome of an election before.

I'm fairly certain incumbent government gets shot at forming government and would need support of either PANB or the Greens. Speech from the Throne would dictate whether or not that party can form government (Majority support of the Legislature), and if not it would be the responsibility of the PCs. I could be wrong. The Legislature would have to choose a speaker which, at this point, likely comes from the PA or Greens.

There are so many ridings left that are so close that i'm sure it won't end up 21-21-4-3, but we'll see.

[Bishop2047]

This is a political scientist's dream come true. I feel we won't be certain of anything until the morning (and some recounts). If anything this has shown many how important your vote is. Still too close to call at this moment.

[Taeolas]

So 5 seats won by 100 or less votes. Recounts ahoy coming.

21 vs 21. The Alliance will be the kingmakers, but the Greens could be spoilers.

Regardless, this election is going into Overtime with no clear results. It'll make the next few years interesting.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Regardless, this election is going into Overtime with no clear results. It'll make the next few years interesting.

This legislature won't last beyond 18 months. We're going back to the polls in the Spring of 2020 - mark my words.........

[Fischbob]

Difficult night for social democrats in the province.

Very interesting results so far, however. Seat distribution has shifted to 22 for the PCs as Bay du Vin has flipped from the PANB. 4 ridings decided by fewer than 100 votes so far. Regardless of how the dust settles at this point, it will be a real challenge to make this forthcoming legislature work. MonctonRad may be right about another election soon...

Edit: very close right now in Bay du Vin, 58 votes separate the PCs and PANB with 2 polls to go. This riding may make the difference for the PCs depending on which way it goes.

[CodiacCanuck]

If the PCs and PAs can find enough common ground, they can make this legislature work as a minority government.

[Feneant]

Wow, what an evening! I know there's little chance this government remains for 5 years but the way I see it we'll finally have a true democracy where every voice will count. I am also very amused to see that the electoral system screwed over the party in power instead of the others and I absolutely 100% feel like my vote counted. I would have rather see it end in a 21/21 tie but this still works as I think the PC and PA are close enough to be able to form the government.

Is this the end of NB being a 2 party province, I sincerely hope so!

Oh, and am I the only one picturing a political cartoon of Higgs and Gallant jammed together in the door trying to get into the LG's office first?

[Taeolas]

One thing I'm curious about while we waited for the results. Why did it take so long for some of those polling stations to report in?

Are some of the stations not using the automatic counting scanatron system?

Or are they just remote stations that have to be sealed and driven back to civilization before they can report in?