Quote:
Originally Posted by jtown,man
Urban malls will be dead soon if most aren't already.
They have been fighting against the internet now for two decades(sort of). Now they were shut down by the government while internet-based operations were free to operate. And add in this summer with many cities experiencing looting, again, no internet-based operations were impacted.
It's over for them. American cities are about to be even more boring than they already were. All we will be left with are the restaurants that survived lockdowns and salons and dry cleaners.
Yes, I am extremely pessimistic but I have my reasons. The last 7 months have severely impacted my view of the future of American cities. The gains of American urbanity over the last three decades is in fact very fragile. 2020 has done so much harm(government lockdowns, looting, people avoiding going out, increase online shopping, offices going to WFH models...).
This will kill our office markets.
Which will kill local businesses that tend to those workers.
Which will kill the local real estate markets that are geared towards people wanting easy commutes to their offices downtown.
Which will kill transit.
I just looked at a 44 story condo tower here in Chicago. There were 50 rentals listed. One apartment I looked at was listed for 2,400 in June, its not listed for 1800. A 2 bedroom on the 33rd floor in downtown Chicago, 1,800 dollars. One agent told me rentals are typically staying on the market for 8 months now. My school is all online now and my girlfriend's job is 100% online. So we could move to the exurbs and save thousands a year. Plenty of others will make moves like that. I am not, right now. The deals are too good to turn down.
I don't quite understand how so many people who love the urban environment are still so optimistic. I HOPE I AM WRONG. I hope I look so stupid and everyone can make fun of me in a year from now. But what I am seeing isn't looking good.
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I also sadly agree with your post. I'm not sure we are witnessing the death knell of urban America, but it is going to be a long slog back to anything resembling normal. I live in a city (Austin) where there is an amazing amount of office, hotel, and residential highrise/midrise construction underway. As a result, there is near euphoric posting on the Austin forum from delighted local residents. I pretty much keep my mouth shut, but I just don't see the present boom in my city being absorbed any time in the next several years. There are going to be a lot of empty office buildings, hotel rooms, and probably condo/rental towers as well. WFH is for real and will take a huge toll on future office leasing. The communal workspace also seems to be dead in the water for now. The convention and tourism industry is in tatters. Hundreds of small businesses are closing or on life support. The club, bar, and restaurant scene is a shadow of its former self, which makes living in the center of the city or visiting the city that much less enticing. Who knows, it might be enough to make Austin truly "weird" again somewhere down the road. I guess the club and bar scene will make a comeback. Musicians might be able to afford to live here again. Ditto for other creative types. Gotta look for that silver lining.