Canadian Fiscal Policy

[WarrenC12]

Still waiting to hear the CPC plan on helping people living in tent cities.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Still waiting to hear the CPC plan on helping people living in tent cities.

They are not the Government, why is it their problem?

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by casper

We have had a fairly successful fiscal policy.

The outcomes have been impressive. We emerged from COVID without being part of a global depression.

So achieving a real-GDP per capita decline that's plunging faster than most Western world peers is your definition of impressive? Wow the bar is incredibly low these days at Liberal HQ.

It seems to be a loyal discipline of the Trudeau-Freeland school of economics these days you literally have to suspend economic reality.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Build.It

I'm gonna go on a limb and say these people would disagree with that statement:

This is because of terrible housing policy. Not because of a recession. A lower GDP per capita is not a recession. A lower GDP is a recession. We can be treading water economically and still see declining quality of life. Pretty much where Canada is right now.

[thewave46]

It is interesting to see how things will unwind over the next decade or two. COVID accelerated our fiscal problems by a decade or so thanks to the mound of debt taken on.

Central banks are jammed against keeping inflation lowish and interest rate policy causing indebted Canadians to carry a larger burden. Governments are jammed against obligations to the Baby Boom and disinclination for the taxes required pay for that.

The global growth engine of China is sputtering, the US cannot maintain its expansionary fiscal latitude forever. Europe has many countries entering negative population growth.

On the bright side, if growth stalls, Canada can just stop importing people at the rate we do so we won't have a unmanageable spike in unemployment. Maybe housing prices will ease under such a scenario.

I foresee a 'lost decade' of Canadian economic performance at minimum. If governments maybe get their fiscal balance in order quickly, maybe the money men don't get wise and allow us to keep rolling over debt relatively cheaply. If not, well, that'll be fun too. Anyway, I expect getting our house in order will reduce our carbon emissions. Net zero via economic stagnation.

Still don't know what crypto does that gold doesn't to be honest. At least I get to look at the gold I buy.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

They are not the Government, why is it their problem?

It's about to be their problem. I assume they will just blame the Liberals for 4 years and see what happens at the next election.

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

It's about to be their problem. I assume they will just blame the Liberals for 4 years and see what happens at the next election.

Yawn ....

Justin Trudeau blames Stephen Harper cuts for auto theft issue

From last month ... you know roughly 99 months after the LPC defeated the Conservatives

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Yawn ....From last month ... you know roughly 99 months after the LPC defeated the Conservatives

Not defending it, just saying reality is predictable and boring from a policy perspective.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Not defending it, just saying reality is predictable and boring from a policy perspective.

It's weird how you never call out the JT LPC for when they regularly do this, but are already preemptively calling out the CPC.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by theman23

It's weird how you never call out the JT LPC for when they regularly do this, but are already preemptively calling out the CPC.

I've noticed this as well. Don't think I've seen him say a single critical thing about this LPC government or Trudeau.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

I've noticed this as well. Don't think I've seen him say a single critical thing about this LPC government or Trudeau.

What's to say that hasn't been said already? JT is a lame duck PM at this point. Immigration levels are far too high.

I do like what they are starting to do with housing, but it's too little too late.

I don't know why you guys assuming PP and the CPC will somehow have all of the answers when we have zero evidence of this happening.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

What's to say that hasn't been said already? JT is a lame duck PM at this point. Immigration levels are far too high.

I do like what they are starting to do with housing, but it's too little too late.

I don't know why you guys assuming PP and the CPC will somehow have all of the answers when we have zero evidence of this happening.

Fair enough.

Which LPC housing policies do you like?

I like PP's carrot-and-stick proposal to punish cities who block permit applications by cutting their federal dollars, and reward those that approve more. It makes a lot of sense and should get results.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

Which LPC housing policies do you like?

I like PP's carrot-and-stick proposal to punish cities who block permit applications by cutting their federal dollars. It makes a lot of sense.

The LPC took something from PP's plan and starting funding housing in areas that are loosening up zoning. It started when Fraser took over as Minister (too late).

PP's proposal sounds all stick to me. What specific Federal funding would be cut from bedroom communities that block growth? No transit? They don't want it. It lacks details and I don't think it will work in reality.

https://cfjctoday.com/2023/08/15/how...rrot-or-stick/

[Build.It]

I'm more interested in what PP hasn't told us he's going to do yet. He's not stupid and must know that the Greenbelt and Places-to-Grow Acts are the primary cause of house price escalation in Ontario at least. It would political suicide for him to say that publicly right now since the average GTA resident acts as if the Greenbelt is a national park any time someone challenges its existence, but if I were to place a bet I'd say this is what he ultimately ends up going after to actually solve the housing crisis. It is the lowest hanging fruit. It's a provincial matter so they're going to have to figure out a way to "punish" the province while staying in the federal lane, but Ford knows the Greenbelt is bullshit too, and would be more than happy to be "forced" to remove it while appearing to defend it.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

I'm more interested in what PP hasn't told us he's going to do yet. He's not stupid and must know that the Greenbelt and Places-to-Grow Acts are the primary cause of house price escalation in Ontario at least. It would political suicide for him to say that publicly right now since the average GTA resident acts as if the Greenbelt is a national park any time someone challenges its existence, but if I were to place a bet I'd say this is what he ultimately ends up going after to actually solve the housing crisis. It is the lowest hanging fruit. It's a provincial matter so they're going to have to figure out a way to "punish" the province while staying in the federal lane, but Ford knows the Greenbelt is bullshit too, and would be more than happy to be "forced" to remove it while appearing to defend it.

I think it's simpler than that. He will threaten cities and use it as an excuse for an austerity budget.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I think it's simpler than that. He will threaten cities and use it as an excuse for an austerity budget.

Which will still work if he substantially cuts immigration. At the end of the day there's only one metric everybody is looking at on this topic: home prices and rents.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Build.It

I'm more interested in what PP hasn't told us he's going to do yet. He's not stupid and must know that the Greenbelt and Places-to-Grow Acts are the primary cause of house price escalation in Ontario at least. It would political suicide for him to say that publicly right now since the average GTA resident acts as if the Greenbelt is a national park any time someone challenges its existence, but if I were to place a bet I'd say this is what he ultimately ends up going after to actually solve the housing crisis. It is the lowest hanging fruit. It's a provincial matter so they're going to have to figure out a way to "punish" the province while staying in the federal lane, but Ford knows the Greenbelt is bullshit too, and would be more than happy to be "forced" to remove it while appearing to defend it.

He's pretty careful to always namedrop Liberal held urban areas for criticism and doesn't really speak up much about suburbs. The threshold he put in for his own was high enough (I think half million) that it excluded a whole lot of smaller cities and suburbs. Exactly the type of places in Ontario's greenbelt. So if you're looking to him to change the Greenbelt, I'd be skeptical. I think this is basically aimed at places like Toronto proper, Ottawa, Hamilton, London, etc. It's not aimed at Barrie or Peterborough.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Which will still work if he substantially cuts immigration. At the end of the day there's only one metric everybody is looking at on this topic: home prices and rents.

Even then it will take time.

I'm skeptical that he will cut immigration much... big corporations want that cheap labour flowing in..

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

It's about to be their problem. I assume they will just blame the Liberals for 4 years and see what happens at the next election.

Or they will reduce Immigration totals, close the puppy schools,Sweep away the silly punitive enviro regulatory cement and really ask tough questions about the size of the Civil service and especially DND. We have 147 General positions for an effective Force of 55,000? The terrifying thing for Official Ottawa is there are fewer places to hide.Change is coming especially to the Command Division of 24,000 FTE's in DND Ottawa. The Navy can't even find 65 Sailors per new AOPS. What the heck do 147 General/Admirals actually deliver? Not to mention the Deputy Minister Empires.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Even then it will take time.

I'm skeptical that he will cut immigration much... big corporations want that cheap labour flowing in..

Some of it has already begun. Was listening to a Backbench podcast last week about post-secondary education, Alex Usher (probably Canada's topmost education sector analyst) pointed out that applications are already dropping and that colleges will see possibly a 40% drop in foreign enrollment this September, driven by recent regulatory changes. Since college programs are 2-3 years, this means a notable drop in the number of international college students by 2026. A Conservative government could simply cap this even more.

Sure, we'll have to see whether he cares more about what grocery and fast food CEOs or what voters say about housing prices. But given the hostility amongst the CPC base to immigration, I would be honestly surprised if he didn't make some cuts. And colleges are particularly easy targets.