Africa's Rising Cities: How Africa will become the center of the world’s urban future

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Acajack

You definitely notice that where I live, as the sub-Saharan immigrants we have been getting of late tend to be a noticeably high(er) class of people in terms of education, culture and even upbringing. They're significantly more educated than the native-born in fact.

Though the question is how damaging the obvious brain drain of these types of people to the "West" is to their countries of origin.

This is immigration policy bias. Pretty much the only way to immigrate to the U.S. from sub-Saharan Africa (or anywhere else in Africa) is to come as a STEM student or a highly skilled worker. Immigration is probably just as biased towards the highly skilled in Canada.

[Segun]

Originally Posted by Acajack

You definitely notice that where I live, as the sub-Saharan immigrants we have been getting of late tend to be a noticeably high(er) class of people in terms of education, culture and even upbringing. They're significantly more educated than the native-born in fact.

Though the question is how damaging the obvious brain drain of these types of people to the "West" is to their countries of origin.

Many of them do return too. My family has two homes built with that American money.

[eschaton]

I have actually heard people argue that if the Igbo hadn't lost the Biafrian War in Nigeria and became an independent state, Biafra would likely be a developed nation today, largely because the Igbo produce such a large number of talented individuals.

[Yuri]

Regarding the current bad shape of Lagos, it's important to remember cities in high and mid-income countries went through the same process of improvement and they are much better places today than they were 50 or 100 years ago.

2050 Lagos will probably be much better than today's, even with much more residents.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I have actually heard people argue that if the Igbo hadn't lost the Biafrian War in Nigeria and became an independent state, Biafra would likely be a developed nation today, largely because the Igbo produce such a large number of talented individuals.

they sure do!

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Regarding the current bad shape of Lagos, it's important to remember cities in high and mid-income countries went through the same process of improvement and they are much better places today than they were 50 or 100 years ago.

2050 Lagos will probably be much better than today's, even with much more residents.

That's a low bar, though. I mean, outside of a few warzones or kleptocracies, what metro on earth doesn't have a higher standard of living today than a generation ago? Just a few places like Caracas, Damascus, Mogadishu. Even Beirut is much wealthier than pre-civil war.

I just got back from a week in Mexico City, which is massively wealthier than a generation ago, but my long Covid-related absence reminded me of why Mexico is still a third world country. The city is still a disaster compared to any developed world metro. Still toxic air, insane traffic, total chaos. My son could barely breathe and was hacking up black mucus a few hours after arriving, and it still takes an hour to travel a few miles. There is no comfortable mode of travel except helicopter, which obviously almost no one can afford. Even Uber Black is a joke. Mexico City probably won't have a first world standard of living ever.

[biguc]

Does their metro system not work?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by biguc

Does their metro system not work?

It floods when it rains.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by biguc

Does their metro system not work?

No, it doesn't really work.

The closest Metro station to where we were staying was closed bc of a massive explosion earlier this year in an adjacent structure. Another nearby Metro line was closed bc a segment of the elevated structure collapsed. Also the ridiculous Covid rules in Mexico means that public transit is a joke, with half the seats blocked off, forcing everyone to stand and crowd. And the "women and children only" seating/standing areas take up half the remaining space on trains/buses. Finally, there are huge anti-govt. protests that shut down transit and airport access, basically on a weekly basis.

Mexico City is a disaster. Poisonous air, insane traffic, and terrible water. If you cannot provide cleanish air, mobility, and drinkable water that doesn't smell like raw sewage, you're third-world. Doesn't matter how many Michelin-starred restaurants or luxury new condos or dramatic art galleries.

[mrnyc]

^ i can't imagine the underbuilt always hella overcrowded mexico df metro with half the seats blocked off. good lord.

what about the bus rapid transit to the airport? that was new and nice when i was last there. although it was pretty much just me and guys with machine guns on it.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

^ i can't imagine the underbuilt always hella overcrowded mexico df metro with half the seats blocked off. good lord.

what about the bus rapid transit to the airport? that was new and nice when i was last there. although it was pretty much just me and guys with machine guns on it.

All public transit in Mexico City has half the seats blocked off right now. This includes the Metro, the Metrobus BRT, (which is actually quite nice in normal times) and the regular buses. So the crowding is insane. Add in the absurd lines for temperature checks and hand sanitization checks at every station entrance, and it's not worth it, unless you have no other choice.

We used Uber Black for basically all our travels, as Uber in Mexico is still dirt cheap. Uber Black costs maybe one third of what NYC regular Uber/Lyft/taxi costs. But traffic is worse than ever because people are avoiding transit, so we stayed in a small geography with relatives around Coyocan because going anywhere was a huge pain.

Also half the seats blocked off in all restaurants, and forced temp checks/hand santization when entering any store or business. Needless to say, masks required everywhere always, so we wore masks all week except in my in-laws homes.

[mrnyc]

oh geez that sounds pretty bad -- but at least they aren't fooling around with covid -- and i see you got relatives there, so it cant be avoided.

let us know later if you take uber back to the airport or go up and catch the airport brt and how it goes. curious about that.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

oh geez that sounds pretty bad -- but at least they aren't fooling around with covid -- and i see you got relatives there, so it cant be avoided.

let us know later if you take uber back to the airport or go up and catch the airport brt and how it goes. curious about that.

Depends on the time of day. Just returned from visiting a friend in Lindavista, Mexico City for Thanksgiving. Car traffic is always a disaster, but Metro was OK though still crowded in the middle of the day.

The Covid restrictions are funny because you’ll do the whole temperature check/hand-sanitizing dog and pony show… and then invite the whole mariachi band over to the table for maskless singing.

Didn’t have hot water for a few days because the gas deliveries to the apartment had fallen behind. Which is one of those reminders that the infrastructure of Mexico City is still a ways off from the U.S.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

The Covid restrictions are funny because you’ll do the whole temperature check/hand-sanitizing dog and pony show… and then invite the whole mariachi band over to the table for maskless singing.

Yes, perfect description. Total dog and pony show.

We were at a wedding where people were dancing in extremely close quarters till 3 AM and people were eating from shared, passed platters. Many Mexicans still aren't vaxxed bc the govt. has been so horrible at vax delivery, so my wife and I were afraid we would kill some poor sap.

Meanwhile, entering any business requires a silly performance art of various checks and you must "follow the one way lines" in stores.

I almost got in a confrontation with the Universidad Walmart rent-a-militia bc I exited on the wrong path. My 4 yo kid was harassed by a machine-gun wearing guard at an outdoor playground for playing unmasked. Meanwhile the actual playground was falling apart with rusty nails sticking out...

Mexico City is still an interesting and fun place, but I find it's myriad liabilities to be 100x worse during Covid times.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

That's a low bar, though. I mean, outside of a few warzones or kleptocracies, what metro on earth doesn't have a higher standard of living today than a generation ago? Just a few places like Caracas, Damascus, Mogadishu. Even Beirut is much wealthier than pre-civil war.

I just got back from a week in Mexico City, which is massively wealthier than a generation ago, but my long Covid-related absence reminded me of why Mexico is still a third world country. The city is still a disaster compared to any developed world metro. Still toxic air, insane traffic, total chaos. My son could barely breathe and was hacking up black mucus a few hours after arriving, and it still takes an hour to travel a few miles. There is no comfortable mode of travel except helicopter, which obviously almost no one can afford. Even Uber Black is a joke. Mexico City probably won't have a first world standard of living ever.

But what's your point then? If 2050 Lagos will probably be much better than 2021 Lagos, regardless the size, what's the issue?

About Mexico City, I don't know much about it, but I highly doubt it's that bad. You live in New York, right? What's the confortable mode of travel you have there? Definitely is not the filthiest subway in the world or the yellow cabs/Uber stuck on traffic. Obviously NYC is a much much wealthier city, but it's a matter of familiarity: we always tend to overlook problems on our own cities or even in our own neighbourhoods while overstating on other places as we're not used to them.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yuri

But what's your point then? If 2050 Lagos will probably be much better than 2021 Lagos, regardless the size, what's the issue?

The issue is that Lagos will still be extremely poor and underdeveloped by global standards.

Yes, Lagos will progress, but the rest of the planet is progressing in tandem, so the difference between Lagos and, say, Zurich, in 2021, probably will be the same as the difference between Lagos and Zurich in 2071.

Originally Posted by Yuri

About Mexico City, I don't know much about it, but I highly doubt it's that bad. You live in New York, right? What's the confortable mode of travel you have there? Definitely is not the filthiest subway in the world or the yellow cabs/Uber stuck on traffic.

There's no traffic in NYC compared to Mexico City. And the subway in NYC is roughly 10,000x better than the Mexico City Metro. There's no Metro whatsoever in the most affluent zone.

But the main difference between somewhere like Mexico City and somewhere like NYC, or London, or, hell, Ottawa, is that walking/biking isn't really an option.

The city boomed during the 1950's-1970's, the era of autotopia. So everything is car oriented and walking is unpleasant except for a few historic or touristy nodes. Highrise residential and office towers don't even have entrances except through the parking garages. Shopping malls too, most of the time. Sidewalks are narrow, there are few legal crosswalks, and most of the main avenues were turned into quasi-freeways during the 1960's-70's. Practically, car travel is the best option.

Also, my wife generally refuses to take the Metro bc she took it to school in her teenage years and kept getting grabbed/groped. They now have separate cars for women/children, but when we're traveling as a family, it's impractical to split up, since I'm not allowed to ride with her.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The issue is that Lagos will still be extremely poor and underdeveloped by global standards.

Yes, Lagos will progress, but the rest of the planet is progressing in tandem, so the difference between Lagos and, say, Zurich, in 2021, probably will be the same as the difference between Lagos and Zurich in 2071.

Ok Crawford, but it's not about me or you moving or even visiting Lagos, but about its inhabitants to enjoy an upward trend when it comes to quality of life (higher income, higher life expectancy, more schooling years).

If the city will improve, it doesn't matter if it will become even bigger. In fact it's even better: the synergy created by a big place actually speeds things up.

Originally Posted by Crawford

There's no traffic in NYC compared to Mexico City. And the subway in NYC is roughly 10,000x better than the Mexico City Metro. There's no Metro whatsoever in the most affluent zone.

Again, I don't know Mexico City nor NYC, but I really disliked subways in Paris and Rome, because they were incredibly dirty and smelly. Sometimes I walked almost 20 km a day to avoid use them.

London is ok, but the trains are a bit claustrophobic as they're too small. German trains are ok, but too old.

If NYC subway is in worse condition than Paris', it's a completely non-starter to me. I would never use it as a tourist and as an inhabitant, I'd avoid the most. So yeah, I'd just walk and if NYC bike infrastructure is good, maybe I could try it.

Originally Posted by Crawford

But the main difference between somewhere like Mexico City and somewhere like NYC, or London, or, hell, Ottawa, is that walking/biking isn't really an option.

The city boomed during the 1950's-1970's, the era of autotopia. So everything is car oriented and walking is unpleasant except for a few historic or touristy nodes. Highrise residential and office towers don't even have entrances except through the parking garages. Shopping malls too, most of the time. Sidewalks are narrow, there are few legal crosswalks, and most of the main avenues were turned into quasi-freeways during the 1960's-70's. Practically, car travel is the best option.

Also, my wife generally refuses to take the Metro bc she took it to school in her teenage years and kept getting grabbed/groped. They now have separate cars for women/children, but when we're traveling as a family, it's impractical to split up, since I'm not allowed to ride with her.

You go to Mexico City as a tourist, right? So why not to stick only to the best/pedestrian friendly districts. I guess they're the most interesting ones in any case.

Or even if you had to move there: you could just pick a nice, upmarket, pedestrian friendly district and build your life there. That's the best thing about to move to a new city: you can pick up the most convinient neighbourhood to live.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yuri

You go to Mexico City as a tourist, right? So why not to stick only to the best/pedestrian friendly districts. I guess they're the most interesting ones in any case.

No, my wife is from Mexico City and we stay with her parents and/or other relatives. I have no choice where to stay.

And there are barely any "pedestrian friendly districts". There are some small nodes, like Roma, Coyocan, a bit of Polanco. But the vast majority of the city is pedestrian hostile.

Originally Posted by Yuri

Or even if you had to move there: you could just pick a nice, upmarket, pedestrian friendly district and build your life there. That's the best thing about to move to a new city: you can pick up the most convinient neighbourhood to live.

Again, there isn't really such a thing. And I lived there, for work, for a year.

This is a typical middle/upper middle class core neighborhood. On paper, it has good urbanity. Fairly dense, apartment buildings and stores everywhere, mixed use, and a Metro line. But in practice, it's terrible:

https://www.google.com/maps/@19.3964...7i16384!8i8192

In the postwar decades, the city turned most of the major roads into ejes, which are basically freeway-like arterials, but with timed lights and almost no pedestrian crossings. So there's practically no such thing as a pedestrian friendly corridor, except for a few remnants they neglected to "improve".

[biguc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

No, my wife is from Mexico City and we stay with her parents and/or other relatives. I have no choice where to stay.

Anyway, I'm kind of bummed out to hear Mexico City is that dysfunctional. I still really want to visit--especially because I wouldn't have to stay with inlaws--but I'd expected pretty much Eastern European functionality. This sounds somewhat worse.

[Crawford]

Functionality-wise, it's much worse than anywhere in Eastern Europe. Even somewhere like Ukraine or Belarus is more day-to-day functional. Try Iran or Colombia.

But it's still an interesting visit. Fantastic restaurants and nightlife, very creative, tons of cultural attractions. I'd say rough global equivalents would be Istanbul, Sao Paulo, or a richer Cairo or Tehran. One of the world's great cities, just colossal problems.