COVID-19 Manitoba

[BlackDog204]

MANITOBA COVID-19 UPDATE NOV. 30:
- 343 new
- 16,825 total
- 9,260 active
- 312 dead
- 11 new deaths
- 342 hosp, 43 ICU
- 7,253 recover
- 355,081 tests
- 2,611 YDA
- TP 13.4%

New cases:

Winnipeg - 207
Southern - 53
Northern - 46
Interlake-Eastern - 23
Prairie Mountain - 15

Well the good news is Manitoba is not #1 in terms of per-capita COVID cases. Alberta passed us on the weekend.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by esquire

The curve is flattening but TP rates are still crazy high... we have to bring those back down to earth.

Cases and TP are both crazy, but flattened. First step flat, second step slowly down. Hopefully.

[cheswick]

Positive view:
First time since second wave started the province wide two week over two week average is down.
MB R value estimated at 0.89, lowest province in country. (using up to yesterdays data. Estimated by biostatician Ryan Imgrund, Twitter: @imgrund)

[VANRIDERFAN]

Just curious, are there any stats on the rate of re-infection?

[cheswick]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

Just curious, are there any stats on the rate of re-infection?

Roussin was asked this the other day and said there were no known cases of re-infection in MB

[optimusREIM]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

Just curious, are there any stats on the rate of re-infection?

There have been like 2 worldwide, and it's not entirely clear whether they were true reinfection or dormant viruses.

[Festivus]

Originally Posted by optimusREIM

There have been like 2 worldwide, and it's not entirely clear whether they were true reinfection or dormant viruses.

There were also a handful in Korea that were originally assumed to have been re-infected, but upon closer inspection they simply had dead shells of the virus still floating in their blood, triggering a false positive. But overall, it appears that immunity is similar to SARS (which the virus is closely related to), which is a good thing. Most people with SARS ended up with 10+ year immunity. As with any disease there will always be a very small % who are able to be reinfected due to issues with their own immune response...but it looks like SARS-2-CoV does not reinfect easily.

[Biff]

So it looks like if Canada is to be splitting the first shipment of 3m vaccines per percentage of Provincial Population, we should be getting approx 108,000 doses.

I used general rounded numbers. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710000901

1.4m / 38m = 3.6%

3.6% x 3m = 108,0000

Since I'm not great at math I showed my work to those of you who will critique.

[drew]

Originally Posted by Biff

So it looks like if Canada is to be splitting the first shipment of 3m vaccines per percentage of Provincial Population, we should be getting approx 108,000 doses.

I used general rounded numbers. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710000901

1.4m / 38m = 3.6%

3.6% x 3m = 108,0000

Since I'm not great at math I showed my work to those of you who will critique.

Although you calculated basackwards from how I would do it, I think your numbers check out.

3 million vaccines equates to ~8% of the national population.

[Biff]

I said math is not a strong point for me.....

[esquire]

Does that mean that only 54,000 will be covered in the first round since you need two jabs of the vaccine?

Even if that's the case though, I would imagine that 54,000 would really make a difference as you would capture most of the hospital/PCH workforce and a good number of PCH residents. It could dramatically reduce the daily litany of deaths among the 60+ cohort.

If it's actually 108,000 people being vaccinated then that's fantastic... you could cover off just about all of the people known to be dangerously vulnerable to Covid.

[drew]

I think the initial phase needs to be geared towards the core service providers. You need to first shore up that entire workforce before you move towards high risk groups (seniors and people with other health concerns).

[Biff]

Yeah, it's tough to know if that 108,000 is doses (includes 2 doses per person) or is it really half - 54,000 because it needs to be administered twice.

[bomberjet]

Does that include first nations population? They will have a certain percentage reserved. Pallister made that clear yesterday.

Otherwise it will be healthcare workers and then probably PCH's.

[Festivus]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

Does that include first nations population? They will have a certain percentage reserved. Pallister made that clear yesterday.

Otherwise it will be healthcare workers and then probably PCH's.

Are you rolling your eyes at Indigenous communities receiving higher priority? Considering that outbreaks have been more severe (and less avoidable on reserves due to limited ability get deliveries of food, etc), it makes sense. Priority is going to go to those who are most likely to die/be infected, and to those communities/places that have higher infection rates due to easier spread conditions (such as reserves, communal dwellings/prisons, etc).

Answering the previous question about if these numbers refer to doses or people, I believe it is 6 million doses for Canada in the initial shipment, so 3 million people.

[cheswick]

Originally Posted by drew

Although you calculated basackwards from how I would do it, I think your numbers check out.

3 million vaccines equates to ~8% of the national population.

Originally Posted by esquire

Does that mean that only 54,000 will be covered in the first round since you need two jabs of the vaccine?

Even if that's the case though, I would imagine that 54,000 would really make a difference as you would capture most of the hospital/PCH workforce and a good number of PCH residents. It could dramatically reduce the daily litany of deaths among the 60+ cohort.

If it's actually 108,000 people being vaccinated then that's fantastic... you could cover off just about all of the people known to be dangerously vulnerable to Covid.

Yes, I'm pretty sure the numbers are doses. 2 doses required for complete vaccination.

[dmacc]

That 108,000 would have such a positive impact on the mortality rate. This is great new.

I do wonder what the delivery schedule will look like. Are those doses provided on a monthly or quarterly delivery schedule and what will the ramp up look like.

I believe Alberta mentioned that it will take until mid-late 2021 until the vaccine is available to most of the population. If you consider most to be just above 50% then we could be looking at an average of 3 million people getting access monthly until halfway through the year.

[bomberjet]

Originally Posted by Festivus

Are you rolling your eyes at Indigenous communities receiving higher priority? Considering that outbreaks have been more severe (and less avoidable on reserves due to limited ability get deliveries of food, etc), it makes sense. Priority is going to go to those who are most likely to die/be infected, and to those communities/places that have higher infection rates due to easier spread conditions (such as reserves, communal dwellings/prisons, etc).

Answering the previous question about if these numbers refer to doses or people, I believe it is 6 million doses for Canada in the initial shipment, so 3 million people.

I'm rolling my eyes at Brian P complaining about it.

[BlackDog204]

320 new cases, with 13.4% positive case rate in Manitoba.


As bad as it is here, luckily it is not Alberta, where the Government has not locked down bars, casinos, etc. I had a medical emergency for the first time in 5 years on Sunday. Thankfully all tests were negative, and I was treated, and given medication.

I was in the non-COVID ward, but had to go to the hospital further away from me, as the one in Edmonton that is close by is full. There I saw a COVID patient for the first time while waiting for an X-ray, when I walked outside my ward. She could not have been over 30, was in a portable bed, and with a full ventilator. She may have either been Indigenous or Hispanic (i was not sure). 6 health care workers were pushing here bed stretcher, with copious amounts of PPE. It's bad enough to see an elderly COVID victim, but see someone who is younger than me, and relatively healthy looking in appearance, literally scared me.

This shit is serious.

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

Does that include first nations population? They will have a certain percentage reserved. Pallister made that clear yesterday.

Otherwise it will be healthcare workers and then probably PCH's.

So more ethnicity based quotas, personally I think seniors should be first priority regardless of ethnicity, followed by those with compromised immunity such as diabetics etc.