Lamenting the decline of the car

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Regarding EV charging infrastructure, NRCan has rolled out 2 phases of funding, I'm not sure if there's a 3rd phase coming, perhaps in the next set of election promises:

Note that this includes things other than EVs. You can see that a typical fast charger is $50k/stall, whereas Hydrogen stations are a cool million.

Tesla numbers show even lower than $50k based on the volume of their deployment, and they are also the newest, fastest versions that top out at 250kW.

Hydrogen stations are indeed much more expensive to build and even though the prices of the stations {and especially the fuel itself} are expected to plunge in this decade, I can't imagine them being as cheap as electric stations.

It is, however, not as plain an analogy as it appears. One full battery recharge can take up to an hour and at a minimum half an hour. Hydrogen cars are fueled in 3 minutes like your car right now. In other words you have to build at LEAST 6 times as many electric stations as you do hydrogen stations to serve the same number of vehicles. Also, due to one hydrogen pump being able to do the work of many battery chargers, there is less regular maintenance and much less land required for the stations which is a real money saver in places like Vancouver.

What I don't understand is why Ottawa is helping build natural gas stations. NG is a filthy and GHG emitting technology so it seems very counter productive.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

It is, however, not as plain an analogy as it appears. One full battery recharge can take up to an hour and at a minimum half an hour. Hydrogen cars are fueled in 3 minutes like your car right now. In other words you have to build at LEAST 6 times as many electric stations as you do hydrogen stations to serve the same number of vehicles.

You're stuck on this because you just don't understand how most people use EVs. If charging is concurrent, charge times are irrelevant. If your car is charging while you sleep, do you care whether it took 5 hrs vs. 7 hrs on your Lvl 2 charger at home? Technically, filling up takes the 1 min that it takes to plugin and unplug the charger from the wall, as far as most are concerned.

On roadtrips, nobody is charging to 100%. The fastest charge rates are till 80%. And all the cars with the 800V architecture will do 5-80% in 20-25 mins. That's usually at least 300 km of nominal range or at least say enough for 2 hrs of driving at traffic speeds in the winter. So for the rare times one takes a roadtrip, drive 2-2.5 hrs, stop for 20-30 mins, drive another 2-2.5 hrs, keep going... And all this assumes batteries don't get better. By they are. 80% of battery could well mean 500 km nominal by the end of the decade, for the average new EV.

The reality is that most people don't roadtrip often enough and far enough for this to matter. They'll be happy just to not have to go to a gas station to fill up. And since they can charge at home, the number of fast chargers needed to replace gas pumps are far fewer.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by jamincan

I'm sad that the Golf is a thing of the past now in N. America, and as a renter, it's unlikely that the electric version will be a viable option for me in the future when I replace my current Golf.

There are no more e-Golfs coming to North America.

[jamincan]

I assume the ID.3 will be available though?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by jamincan

I assume the ID.3 will be available though?

No. VW has ruled out the ID3 for North America for the foreseeable future. We got sideswiped by the lack of demand for hatchbacks in the US.

I've inquired. I would have actually considered getting an ID3.

[hipster duck]

I was under the impression the ID.3 is basically on back order in Europe, so they have to limit all supply to the EU until they ramp up production in other places. I'd expect that we'd get some electric VW hatchback eventually, even if it's made in Mexico rather than Germany.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I was under the impression the ID.3 is basically on back order in Europe, so they have to limit all supply to the EU until they ramp up production in other places. I'd expect that we'd get some electric VW hatchback eventually, even if it's made in Mexico rather than Germany.

For now, VW is using all its battery production to meet their fleet efficiency requirements in Europe. But they just don't seem to have the same urgency in North America. They seem to be resigned to the fact that the whole North American market is just moving to mostly SUVs and trucks.

Who knows if that will change in the future. But for now this is what it is.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

No. VW has ruled out the ID3 for North America for the foreseeable future. We got sideswiped by the lack of demand for hatchbacks in the US.

I've inquired. I would have actually considered getting an ID3.

Yeah I'm not interested in any of VW's bland and pedestrian CUV or SUVs whether they're EV or ICE. If they had decided to bring over the European Touareg TDI it might be a different story.

[MolsonExport]

sure pickup trucks piss me off. I hate the room they take up on the roads and in parking lots. I hate the fact I cannot see over their massive hoods. I hate the way they completely block the view of oncoming traffic when they waiting to take a left-hand turn (and you wanting to turn right). Giant pickup trucks inconvenience the fuck out of people in smaller vehicles, yet the reverse is not true.

[Truenorth00]

The noise. That's the shit that gets to me the most sometimes. Especially, the trend of good ole boys turning their trucks into fucking motorcycles. How is that shit not illegal?

• Video Link

[ssiguy]

As cars/trucks go electric, our cities are going to become much quieter, thank God.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

As cars/trucks go electric, our cities are going to become much quieter, thank God.

Watch the video. That was covered. EVs are only quieter when driving below 30 kph. Though, electrification should hopefully put an end to loud motorcycles and pickups.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Watch the video. That was covered. EVs are only quieter when driving below 30 kph. Though, electrification should hopefully put an end to loud motorcycles and pickups.

The worst noise IMO is when the light goes green at an intersection and everybody steps on the gas. Trucks being the loudest, with some exceptions. EVs will eliminate this. Along with the burst of exhaust, of course.

[Truenorth00]

Biden Executive Order aiming for 50% electrified vehicles by 2030.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...al-2021-08-05/

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The worst noise IMO is when the light goes green at an intersection and everybody steps on the gas. Trucks being the loudest, with some exceptions. EVs will eliminate this. Along with the burst of exhaust, of course.

I don't live far from a freeway. There's a path that goes near there. The traffic noise is very loud along that path. Taking off from a light is not loud by comparison. In the video above, one of the points covered was that the Dutch use special asphalt in cities to reduce rolling noise. We most definitely should be doing that on freeways and major avenues in urban areas. For the rest, if we can't mandate low noise tires (which do exist), the next logical solution is limiting all side streets to 30 kph.

[Floppa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You're stuck on this because you just don't understand how most people use EVs. If charging is concurrent, charge times are irrelevant. If your car is charging while you sleep, do you care whether it took 5 hrs vs. 7 hrs on your Lvl 2 charger at home? Technically, filling up takes the 1 min that it takes to plugin and unplug the charger from the wall, as far as most are concerned.

On roadtrips, nobody is charging to 100%. The fastest charge rates are till 80%. And all the cars with the 800V architecture will do 5-80% in 20-25 mins. That's usually at least 300 km of nominal range or at least say enough for 2 hrs of driving at traffic speeds in the winter. So for the rare times one takes a roadtrip, drive 2-2.5 hrs, stop for 20-30 mins, drive another 2-2.5 hrs, keep going... And all this assumes batteries don't get better. By they are. 80% of battery could well mean 500 km nominal by the end of the decade, for the average new EV.

The reality is that most people don't roadtrip often enough and far enough for this to matter. They'll be happy just to not have to go to a gas station to fill up. And since they can charge at home, the number of fast chargers needed to replace gas pumps are far fewer.

As far as airlines and truckers are concerned, BEVs are a cute novelty. Until there's a major breakthrough in battery tech to massively improve their energy density, they really won't be suitable for any mode of transport where weight is a consideration.

Sure, there's a couple of battery-powered planes on the market right now, but they're tiny little rinkydinks and are limited to short haul flights. The kinds that France just outlawed, and for good reason.

So in the end, we probably will see a ton of hydrogen pumps at truck stops within a decade. The economy of scale will bring down the price, which will probably make hydrogen cars and pickup trucks more appealing (Especially the latter, since the weight of batteries means that a battery pickup is useless when you're hauling a lot of weight for your job).

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Floppa

As far as airlines and truckers are concerned, BEVs are a cute novelty. Until there's a major breakthrough in battery tech to massively improve their energy density, they really won't be suitable for any mode of transport where weight is a consideration.

Sure, there's a couple of battery-powered planes on the market right now, but they're tiny little rinkydinks and are limited to short haul flights. The kinds that France just outlawed, and for good reason.

So in the end, we probably will see a ton of hydrogen pumps at truck stops within a decade. The economy of scale will bring down the price, which will probably make hydrogen cars and pickup trucks more appealing (Especially the latter, since the weight of batteries means that a battery pickup is useless when you're hauling a lot of weight for your job).

Weight is not the consideration in either of the modes you are talking about. It's cost and time. That's what people pay for when transporting goods or themselves.

Battery electric delivery vehicles will have cheaper TCO in the very near future, if they aren't already. Taxis and couriers quickly embraced hybrids when they came on the market, and they will soon do the same for EVs.

No shipping company is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to deploy hydrogen refueling across the continent. Nevermind there are zero hydrogen trucks anywhere near commercial production.

Ford, Rivian, and Tesla all have functional electric pickups in some stage of pre-production. I don't know what you're talking about with respect to battery weight.

Planes are another matter. To go carbon neutral they will probably use some level of hybridization and renewable liquid fuel. Small planes have a good chance of going electric. Again, the cost of energy will help determine what works in each situation.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Floppa

As far as airlines and truckers are concerned, BEVs are a cute novelty. Until there's a major breakthrough in battery tech to massively improve their energy density, they really won't be suitable for any mode of transport where weight is a consideration.

Not sure what you're arguing about. Nobody has ever pushed electrification mandates for trucking and airlines. Though the carbon tax will increasingly drive them to alternatives or see business move to alternatives as those modes become more expensive.

Though, I suspect a lot of freight trucking will be moved by Battery Electric or Hydrogen Fuel Cell tractors by the end of the decade. Every major truckmaker in the world is working on releasing such models in the next 2-3 years. Some are already in test fleets.

There is plenty of freight that is volume rather than weight limited. For such freight, diesel propulsion just isn't necessary.

[Floppa]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Weight is not the consideration in either of the modes you are talking about. It's cost and time. That's what people pay for when transporting goods or themselves.

You know what else isn't a consideration in freight? Acceleration. So it's rather strange that Elon Musk hyped that when he unveiled his truck. BTW, that was 4 years ago. You'd think they would have something out by now if battery semis were feasible.

Batteries are way less energy dense than diesel. So to have anywhere near the range of a diesel engine, an electric semi has to greatly increase the weight of the truck. The higher the weight of the truck, the less payload (i.e. the part of the truck that pays the bills) you can have. So you either increase the cost by reducing payload, or you increase the time since the truck will spend more time stopping and charging. Not very good for the bottom line either way.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

No shipping company is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to deploy hydrogen refueling across the continent.

And? Never argued they would. Shipping companies didn't spend billions deploying gas stations either. Obviously the gas stations will install hydrogen pumps if and when necessary.

Here's a video by Real Engineering that explains the problem better than I can.
• Video Link

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Floppa

Batteries are way less energy dense than diesel. So to have anywhere near the range of a diesel engine, an electric semi has to greatly increase the weight of the truck. The higher the weight of the truck, the less payload (i.e. the part of the truck that pays the bills) you can have. So you either increase the cost by reducing payload, or you increase the time since the truck will spend more time stopping and charging. Not very good for the bottom line either way.

All true. And beside the point.

1) Weight only matters for weight limited freight. If you're shipping a truckload of cotton balls everyday, you're not likely to hit weight limits. Not all freight is weight limited. Plenty is volume limited, or regularly ships smaller loads. Especially, with a lot of JIT manufacturing/logistics.

2) Range is also less of an issue than people think. Most trucks aren't going hundreds of miles. There's quite a lot that's just regional shipping. Say from a warehouse to a store or regional depot.

This isn't a team sport where you have to cheer on your technology. Large logistics organizations all have very detailed data on their logistics fleets. I had a relative who worked for Walmart doing logistics modeling for their road fleet. They had granularity beyond the comprehension of the average person. Right down to how long their drivers took to go to the bathroom on different routes. They don't shop for quarter million dollar semis like you shop for a car. They have a team of engineers modeling all of this. They already know what works and what doesn't. They'll buy electric where it works. They'll buy hydrogen where that works. And where neither of those work, they'll stick with diesel. Billion dollar companies aren't tech fanboys. They use what makes the most sense for them.