Economic and political issues in NS

[sdm]

Originally Posted by q12

Province says $223-million deficit now a $97-million surplus

By THE CANADIAN PRESS
Wed, Dec 22 - 1:41 PM

Nova Scotia's finance minister says the $223-million deficit projected last spring for the 2010-11 fiscal year is now a $97.2-million surplus.
Graham Steele attributes the variance to higher personal income tax revenue, new pension valuations, lower interest payments and lower departmental spending.

Steele says most of the improvements are due to one-time factors that will not carry over to next year.

He says the fiscal challenges facing the province remain immense.

The spring budget is still expected to show a $370-million deficit driven largely by the way the government has been funding education.

The prepayments given universities this year will not be reflected in the books until next year.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/9019127.html


I guess the province is good now to fund our stadium and Convention Centre. I'd also like my HST back to 13%.

Something smells fishey here.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by sdm

Something smells fishey here.

Typical incumbent govt... issue dire budgets and then express surprise when things turn out better. The only exception is during an election year, when you do the reverse.

[Waye Mason]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

Typical incumbent govt... issue dire budgets and then express surprise when things turn out better. The only exception is during an election year, when you do the reverse.

If they had booked the university expenses last year and this year, instead of piling all that investment in 2009/10, then the deficit would be around 2009/10 $280 mil and 2010/11 $110 mil. How we go from that to $500 mil in the hole is not clear to me.

[PoscStudent]

It's about time Nova Scotia had some positive news but Jamie Baillie is correct in saying that it's pretty much just to do with higher taxes.

[q12]

Dexter: N.S. ends fiscal year with $447 million surplus


By THE CANADIAN PRESS
Mon, Apr 4 - 8:07 PM

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/9020456.html

Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter says the province had a $447-million surplus as the fiscal year drew to a close last week.
The premier says the money will be used to pay down the province's massive $13-billion debt.

Dexter made the commitment Monday during his response to the throne speech.

He says the surplus was the result of a $133-million reduction in government spending along with an $80-million reduction in debt servicing costs, thanks to reduced borrowing needs and favourable interest rates.

There was also a one-time adjustment of provincial revenue collected by Ottawa that provided the province with $196 million.

Dexter says that most provincial source revenues also came in higher than estimated.

[sdm]

Originally Posted by q12

Dexter: N.S. ends fiscal year with $447 million surplus


By THE CANADIAN PRESS
Mon, Apr 4 - 8:07 PM

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/9020456.html

Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter says the province had a $447-million surplus as the fiscal year drew to a close last week.
The premier says the money will be used to pay down the province's massive $13-billion debt.

Dexter made the commitment Monday during his response to the throne speech.

He says the surplus was the result of a $133-million reduction in government spending along with an $80-million reduction in debt servicing costs, thanks to reduced borrowing needs and favourable interest rates.

There was also a one-time adjustment of provincial revenue collected by Ottawa that provided the province with $196 million.

Dexter says that most provincial source revenues also came in higher than estimated.

all smoke and mirrors. The refinancing costs and higher HST is producing this, not cuts, or hard decisions.

[Haliguy]

They lumped all last years university funding into the previous years budget the first year they were in power. Thats why they had such a large surplus this past year.

[fenwick16]

Manufacturing is up significantly in Nova Scotia. The most recent monthly manufacturing statistics have been released by Statistics Canada and it shows that Nova Scotia had a 23.7% increase when comparing the months of February 2010 and February 2011 (this is not the yearly increase, but is comparing two separate months). February 2011 was also up significantly over January 2011 (3.9% increase, even though February is a shorter month than January). Unfortunately, Statistics Canada doesn't give an explanation for the increase (have people noticed increased manufacturing activity in the Halifax area?)
(source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...0414a3-eng.htm)

[fenwick16]

Manufacturing is up significantly in Nova Scotia. When comparing March 2010 and March 2011. It is up by 24.8% - Statistics Canada reference. It is now close to $1 billion per month ($979 million).

It is interesting to note that when you combine the 3 Maritime Province, the total manufacturing was $2.793 billion dollars in March 2011, with a population of just over 1.8 million people. British Columbia, with a population of 4.5 million people, had only $3.215 Billion in manufacturing.

Just in case MonctonRad is reading, New Brunswick is a manufacturing powerhouse compared to its population. However, Nova Scotia is slowly catching up.

[someone123]

Not sure exactly what counts as manufacturing but NB has McCain and Irving. NS has Michelin. BC tends to be dominated by primary industries (forestry, mining), transportation/shipping, and tourism.

In many ways BC is pretty much equivalent to what the Atlantic region would be if you bumped up Halifax's population to 2 million. I believe that part of why this happened on the West coast is that there was a single province, whereas on the East Coast there are 4 provinces each fighting centralization.

[halifaxboyns]

I wasn't sure what thread to put this in, but this is very interesting...

Federal shipbuilding contract would be major boon for N.S., group says

By THE CANADIAN PRESS
Fri, May 27 - 11:27 AM
Two reports prepared for a Halifax-based business group say winning a federal shipbuilding contract would create thousands of jobs and bolster the provincial economy for at least 25 years.

The reports, commissioned by the Greater Halifax Partnership, say if the Irving-owned Halifax Shipyards were to win the right to build new naval vessels, it would mean a peak employment of 11,500 jobs.

The partnership says the shipbuilding contract would also mean $351 million in disposable income and generate over $350 million in tax revenue.

Ottawa intends to build new combat and supply vessels at two shipyards in a multi-year procurement policy worth up to $30 billion.

Partnership president Paul Kent says building ships in Halifax would help drive benefits to all parts of Canada.

He estimates for every $1,000 spent in the province, another $491 would be generated in other regions of the country.

The release of the reports comes as Premier Darrell Dexter prepares to lead an industry delegation to Ottawa on Monday to begin lobbying for the shipbuilding contract.

************
The same story has been published on the CBC NS website too (from the Canadian Press).
Personally, I think this would have a huge impact and push the growth numbers even higher than what is predicted for the region.

[q12]

Originally Posted by halifaxboyns

it would mean a peak employment of 11,500 jobs.

WOW that is a lot of jobs...

[RyeJay]

Halifax has also already committed to the advancement of the Atlantic Gateway; if this shipbuilding contract happens--this is gonna be one BUSY harbour!! Very exciting!!

[halifaxboyns]

I'm doing some work on the industrial land use districts out here in Calgary and my boss sent me this article. I thought I'd post it to this thread in light of the recent potential of shipbuilding jobs, but it's mainly focused on Industrial Land in general.

It's very interesting.

[Keith P.]

That's an interesting article and the same thinking has been going on here. The original version of Harbour Isle in Dartmouth got some notice at the provincial level, and in fact there were serious discussions about whether the Premier or other senior officials should make representations to HRM Council asking them to turn it down. The thinking was that if the gateway took off, there would be a need for industrial space on the harbourfront and all the residential development proposed would be an impediment to that ever being possible.

[halifaxboyns]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

That's an interesting article and the same thinking has been going on here. The original version of Harbour Isle in Dartmouth got some notice at the provincial level, and in fact there were serious discussions about whether the Premier or other senior officials should make representations to HRM Council asking them to turn it down. The thinking was that if the gateway took off, there would be a need for industrial space on the harbourfront and all the residential development proposed would be an impediment to that ever being possible.

It also puts in doubt the idea that the Halterm port lands could be redeveloped anytime soon should the level of container traffic pick up. But I still think in 25 years it could happen simply because if the port is operating at 1/3 capacity - then in 25 years it could easily ramp up to almost full capacity requiring expansion (thus relocating somewhere else). But I won't hold my breath...

[fenwick16]

Originally Posted by halifaxboyns

It also puts in doubt the idea that the Halterm port lands could be redeveloped anytime soon should the level of container traffic pick up. But I still think in 25 years it could happen simply because if the port is operating at 1/3 capacity - then in 25 years it could easily ramp up to almost full capacity requiring expansion (thus relocating somewhere else). But I won't hold my breath...

The container port seems to be rebounding. These are the numbers for the past 10 years: (below, TEU - stands for Twenty foot Equivalent Unit). Although it still hasn't returned to its peak, the shift to bigger ships would make Halifax more competitive with the Port of Montreal (since the large ships won't be able to get down the St. Lawrence Seaway).

I would guess that the large ships would be more fuel efficient when fully loaded, which will be important as fuel costs increase. However, the opposite, alternate scenario is that as fuel costs increase then places like China will become less competitive with North America for manufactured goods so that imports will decrease (North America will have to become more self-sufficient for manufactured goods). Only time will tell ...

(source: http://www.portofhalifax.ca/english/...ics/index.html )
2010 435,461 TEUs
2009 344,811 TEUs
2008 387,347 TEUs
2007 490,072 TEUs
2006 530,722 TEUs
2005 550,462 TEUs
2004 525,553 TEUs
2003 541,650 TEUs
2002 524,336 TEUs
2001 541,640 TEUs
2000 548,404 TEUs

[someone123]

I think Halifax port traffic peaked at around the same amount back in the 80s as well.

My understanding is that some of the traffic is "overflow" that would have otherwise been destined for ports like New York. That traffic quickly dries up when there's even a moderate contraction in the number of goods shipped.

Still, Halifax is a major container port and that business is a significant part of the local economy, whether it's growing dramatically or not. It's a bit strange how some people only seem to consider a given type of economic activity important if it increases year over year. A few years without growth and people declare that it's time to pack it in.

[halifaxboyns]

Despite the increasing cost - I don't think we'll totally be able to get away from container traffic. The fact is that certain materials are located where they are and get manufacturered where they are because there is a cost advantage and then get shipped to North America.

In New York and many of the ports along the east coast of the US; it seems to me that there isn't a lot of room to expand their operations. Now I'm sure they aren't operating at 100% but the economy will pick up again and so will the level of shipping. When that happens; it will be interesting to see how the numbers pick up for Halifax. But I doubt we'll see the numbers drop to the low levels we saw noted in the numbers provided by Fenwick. If anything, I think they will stick in the 425 to 490k TEU range comfortably; although I'd love for it to skyrocket up into the 600K TEU range.

[someone123]

According to Allnovascotia, manufacturing sales in NS increased by 13.8% from May 2010 to May 2011. This growth is far above the national average of 4%.

There's a tendency to think of manufacturing as being dead in North America, but I think there's still lots of value to having higher end manufacturing operations. Fundamentally that is the kind of economic activity that is needed. Things like housing development and tourism alone won't create a healthy economy.