Homicide stats in Canadian Cities

[chrisallard5454]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Anything under a full year does not provide a "homicide rate" as that would usually be understood but rather a homicide count for the year to date (it means little to take that number and translate it into a "per 100,000 of population" number because that "rate" will increase (unfortunately) as the year goes on). That is not useful if your intention is to look at the trend in the rate or to compare the rate in one city to another. You can look at shorter periods of time to say that there are more/fewer homicides that in the same period in another year, but that means little in most cases (even the year to year variations don't really represent "trends" - for that you need multi-year data).

If you look at UNODC reports, for example, the national homicide counts and homicide rates are always given by calendar year.

You might want to run that thought by the City Discussions thread (Or every police department in the world, while you're at it) where dozens of people are internationally comparing month by month and day by day "counts" to contrast cities. They too are incorrectly using the term "rate" and using /100 000 statistics.

I still don't see your point as to why you think data isn't collected on a comparison basis throughout the year. The UNODC only uses annual homicide rates, simply because it only collects them annually. Police Forces, including Winnipeg's collects its data on a day to day basis, while contrasting from year to year, month to month, day to day, and hour to hour.

Could you imagine such a police force, Officer #1: "Well, we have had a record number of homicides this weekend" Officer #2: "Not true Smith. The year isn't over, so we can't count these homicides as of yet". Officer #1: "You're right, looks like we have to wait until years end before we can start pointing out trends that are occurring". Officer #2: "That also means that month long Gang War over in the West End isn't actually occurring, because we don't comprise data to compare month to month crime, and it isn't December 31st yet, so we have nothing to say that it is abnormal." Officer #3: "Don't forget that we can no longer compare the rate of crime throughout the day, because we can't yet compare the rates to last years counts, because the year is not yet over. And I thought we had a higher rate of incidents between 12am-2am. Oh well, I guess that point is moot."

No, there isn't an inherent flaw in your argument KW.

[giallo]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

You're probably right. I just want competent criminals, no turf war, and minimal overall violence. We've managed that for a long time and I'm not convinced those three things have to change if a mainland gang takes control.

I remember in Winnipeg that people would always say, "Yes, there's lots of crime... but it really only involves one group, and if you're not going to house parties in their part of town, you won't be a victim."

I see that here a lot as well. People credit all of the gang-related crime to Alberta. They've convinced themselves it's just leeching from Fort McMurray. They think the gangs found us via there. They think the locals involved in the more delinquent, amateur (here the term would be skeetish) criminal world where you actually hear about the stabbings and stuff... are 20-something idiot oil workers with Alberta trucks who will smarten up in a few years.

It's like people want to tell themselves it's EXTREMELY transient and temporary and isn't a problem that's going to stay with us. But I think, either way, it will.

Luckily the government and police aren't seeing it that way.

The problem is that now that the government and police are involved, and there is public exposure to this growing problem, they'll have to go persecute all the gangs equally, mainland and local. All that will do is create an opening for more gangs to pick up the slack, and take over (fight for) those existing preverbal corners while trying to create new ones.

Again, to reference BC, we had the Hell's Angels come in, and pretty much run things relatively quietly throughout most of the 80s and 90s. Sure, there were flare ups with the Triads, Vietnamese, some American biker gangs and the Russians, but all either relented or ended up working with the Angels. The biggest issue these gang wars created for the Hell's Angles was public knowledge that it(they) existed in the first place. The BC government, with helps from the feds, made life very difficult for the Angels in to the 21 Century due to a public backlash against them.

So what do you think happened?

With the HA finding it increasingly difficult to move around, and conduct business as usual, it left a large, unfilled gap for other, less-experienced, more violent gangs to take over. Drive-by shoots are so common now in Metro Vancouver, they don't make the front page unless it's like a quadruple homicide.

Anyway, I could be wrong, and this could just be a blip in St. John's underbelly with everything returning to normal in the near future, but reading what you've written, it all sounds so eerily familiar. We'll see.

[Marty_Mcfly]

^I think you've hit the nail on the head there. Biker gang activity isn't a new concept to St. John's, but the large amount of media attention is. The police have even said that they realize once they bust one organized gang another sweeps in to fill the void. All you can do is hold on and hope that things take care of themselves (as in natural selection. I'm okay if thugs want to go out and kill one another, but if you're going to commit a retaliation drive-by you may want to make sure you're targeting the right house and not spraying a family home with rounds from an AK-47). In reality things like this are above and beyond what any mayoral committee about crime can handle.

[Darkoshvilli]

Double shooting in Lasalle today. Now at 15.

[chrisallard5454]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

^I think you've hit the nail on the head there. Biker gang activity isn't a new concept to St. John's, but the large amount of media attention is. The police have even said that they realize once they bust one organized gang another sweeps in to fill the void. All you can do is hold on and hope that things take care of themselves (as in natural selection. I'm okay if thugs want to go out and kill one another, but if you're going to commit a retaliation drive-by you may want to make sure you're targeting the right house and not spraying a family home with rounds from an AK-47). In reality things like this are above and beyond what any mayoral committee about crime can handle.

Are they using AK-47's in St. John's? Then I would certainly agree to there being a problem that needs to be dealt with. I don't think I have heard of any case in Canada involving such a firearm, at least yet. I could be wrong though, I am not familiar with the weapons of choice for gangs across the country. I really hope for the city's sake that, those aren't the weapons that they are using.

Here in Winnipeg the weapons of choice tend to be; knifes, machetes, other sharp objects (even pencils etc), pistols, hunting rifles, shot guns, and the occasional semi auto with a banana clip (the last of which tends to be extremely rare).

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by chrisallard5454

Are they using AK-47's in St. John's? Then I would certainly agree to there being a problem that needs to be dealt with. I don't think I have heard of any case in Canada involving such a firearm, at least yet. I could be wrong though, I am not familiar with the weapons of choice for gangs across the country. I really hope for the city's sake that, those aren't the weapons that they are using.

Here in Winnipeg the weapons of choice tend to be; knifes, machetes, other sharp objects (even pencils etc), pistols, hunting rifles, shot guns, and the occasional semi auto with a banana clip (the last of which tends to be extremely rare).

In that drive-by the police specified that the weapon used was an assault rifle. Cell phone images show the weapon which was left at the scene; it appeared to be an AK. I suppose there is a chance that it could have been a weapon that looked like an AK-47, but yes it was an assault rifle. Albeit I think it was an isolated use of the weapon; I doubt that many of the smaller scale thugs are walking around with those types of guns. I suppose with the link to the Angels in this case, they'd probably be more likely than any other group to use the "big guns". Typically the low-life thugs in the city stick to knives, sawed-off shot guns, and the occasional hand gun.

[trueviking]

you want to feel good about your city's homicide rates?...just wander over to this thread....yeesh.

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/show...36088&page=388

look at some of these numbers as of two weeks ago....and winnipeg's 1.6/100k is the 'murder capital'?

Birmingham AL is at 37 now. Population: 212,225. Rate of 17.43.
Colorado Springs CO is at 16. Population: 419,745. Rate of 3.57.
Chico CA is at 2. Population: 86,187. Rate of: 2.32.
Baltimore MD is at 112. Population: 620,560. Rate of 18.05.
Washington D.C. is at 38. Population: 632,323. Rate of 6.01.
Cincinnati OH is at 37. Population: 296,797. Rate of: 12.47.
Gary IN is at 20. Population: 80,314. Rate of 24.90.
Pine Bluff AR is at 10. Population: 49,009. Rate of 20.44.
Camden NJ is at 25. Population: 77,335. Rate: 32.33.
Oakland CA is at 46. Population: 391,445. Rate of 11.75.

[SignalHillHiker]

Yikes.

[kool maudit]

from what i hear - and nothing is public here, but i have my sources - pristina is about 11-15 per 100,000 people. but you don't see it much. it happens in the hills, between people who are involved in things. but you hear automatics fire at night with some regularity.

[kool maudit]

in 1999, we were at about 20/week. in a city of maybe 300,000.

[kwoldtimer]

I can't remember if it's Tegucigalpa or San Pedro Sula, Honduras, but one of them is at something like 110 per 100,000 inhabitants on an annual basis. The country had something like 7,200 murders last year in a population about one quarter that of Canada's.

[Biff]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I can't remember if it's Tegucigalpa or San Pedro Sula, Honduras, but one of them is at something like 110 per 100,000 inhabitants on an annual basis. The country had something like 7,200 murders last year in a population about one quarter that of Canada's.

I know Ciudad Jarez, Mexico is annually over 1,100 murders per year. (directly south of El Paso Texas)

[chrisallard5454]

Originally Posted by Biff

I know Ciudad Jarez, Mexico is annually over 1,100 murders per year. (directly south of El Paso Texas)

Although their rate over the last year has dropped drastically. It has been extremely impressive. They are no longer the Murder Capital of the world. But obviously still have a lot of work to do. Ironically El Paso is supposed to be one of the safest city's in the country.

I remember one time when I was living in Guelph, my girlfriend had just come home from work, and told me about a woman was ranting on about how Winnipeg was the Murder Capital of the World. I wanted to meet this woman, but my girlfriend wouldn't let me. Probably good foresight on her part.

[chrisallard5454]

Originally Posted by trueviking

you want to feel good about your city's homicide rates?...just wander over to this thread....yeesh.

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/show...36088&page=388

look at some of these numbers as of two weeks ago....and winnipeg's 1.6/100k is the 'murder capital'?

Birmingham AL is at 37 now. Population: 212,225. Rate of 17.43.
Colorado Springs CO is at 16. Population: 419,745. Rate of 3.57.
Chico CA is at 2. Population: 86,187. Rate of: 2.32.
Baltimore MD is at 112. Population: 620,560. Rate of 18.05.
Washington D.C. is at 38. Population: 632,323. Rate of 6.01.
Cincinnati OH is at 37. Population: 296,797. Rate of: 12.47.
Gary IN is at 20. Population: 80,314. Rate of 24.90.
Pine Bluff AR is at 10. Population: 49,009. Rate of 20.44.
Camden NJ is at 25. Population: 77,335. Rate: 32.33.
Oakland CA is at 46. Population: 391,445. Rate of 11.75.

I always try to say the same thing, but it seems to blow over peoples heads. Winnipeg has come just over halfway to double digits once in its history and it somehow has a bad reputation.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by chrisallard5454

I always try to say the same thing, but it seems to blow over peoples heads. Winnipeg has come just over halfway to double digits once in its history and it somehow has a bad reputation.

In Canada, perhaps, not internationally. Even at it's worst, the homicide rate in Winnipeg is half that of the global average.

[travis3000]

How's Toronto doing so far? I haven't been keeping up in the past few months.

[Darkoshvilli]

A woman was attacked at random by some psycho at the corner of st-catherine and st-laurent last night. He beat her so bad she later died of her injuries. Montreal has 16 homicides now.


http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/...322/story.html

[Rico Rommheim]

Fucked up.

[leftimage]

Originally Posted by Rico Rommheim

Fucked up.

Sickest random act of violence I can recall reading about in Montreal for quite a while. It's crazy how much more striking it is when you know the person killed was just at the wrong place / wrong time.

Apparently by-standers came fairly quickly to stop the man, but she was done in by four quick head-stomps. My friend saw it first-hand and he was profoundly affected by the news she had died. Probably because it was so quick, random, and public. Could have been anyone's mom, really...

[PhilippeMtl]

Originally Posted by leftimage

Sickest random act of violence I can recall reading about in Montreal for quite a while. It's crazy how much more striking it is when you know the person killed was just at the wrong place / wrong time.

Apparently by-standers came fairly quickly to stop the man, but she was done in by four quick head-stomps. My friend saw it first-hand and he was profoundly affected by the news she had died. Probably because it was so quick, random, and public. Could have been anyone's mom, really...

the suspect is a tourist from Ontario.