Lamenting the decline of the car

[MolsonExport]

I lament the rise of the prickup truck more than I lament the decline of the car

[esquire]

Originally Posted by drew

Yeah - but shelling out $30k for a 15+ year old RHD from Japan is a bit risky. And not too popular with my better half.

I would love that though...

One of my family friends is a "collector" in that he has several Land Cruisers, and the ones I've been in were all left hand drive? Or do they not make those models any more?

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

My two cents, ICE vehicles will follow manual transmissions, project cars, weekend sports cars, bouldering trucks, overlanders, rallycross cars, etc., as hobby and enthusiast vehicles. There will be a thriving niche market for these that goes on indefinitely and it will be a point of pride to own an ICE vehicle for a moderate number of people and seen as a legitimate interest that needs to rationalization or justification. Likewise, I don't ever expect to see a full ban on ICE vehicles or non-autonomous vehicles, even if some variation on 'no new sales' becomes the law.

That's pretty much it. The kind of person who now has a lovingly restored Model T or Barracuda Hemi in their garage will be the kind of person who 40 years from now will have a 2018 Mustang or Corvette "vintage classic" ICE-powered car.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by esquire

One of my family friends is a "collector" in that he has several Land Cruisers, and the ones I've been in were all left hand drive? Or do they not make those models any more?

That's pretty much it. The kind of person who now has a lovingly restored Model T or Barracuda Hemi in their garage will be the kind of person who 40 years from now will have a 2018 Mustang or Corvette "vintage classic" ICE-powered car.

I had a typo in that quoted paragraph. I meant to say:

There will be a thriving niche market for these that goes on indefinitely and it will be a point of pride to own an ICE vehicle for a moderate number of people and seen as a legitimate interest that needs no rationalization or justification.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Thanks for the details. I will also note that ICBC here gives a $100+ discount to Tesla and other vehicles that have automatic safety features on in the background at all times. I actually had it engage on Highway 97 this summer when the car thought there was no shoulder(?) and kept me in the lane on a sharp corner.

How would it react if you tried to take a shoulder to go around someone who is turning left?

[drew]

Originally Posted by esquire

One of my family friends is a "collector" in that he has several Land Cruisers, and the ones I've been in were all left hand drive? Or do they not make those models any more?

They do, but not for sale in N.A. So you have to import 15+ year old used versions.

The LHD are sold in the Middle East, Africa and maybe S. America.

RHD in Japan.

You can imagine finding a 15 year old LHD in usable and trustable condition to import may be difficult...

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by jonny24

How would it react if you tried to take a shoulder to go around someone who is turning left?

Dunno, I've gone over lines at different times for various reasons. I think you can "overrule it" with force on the steering wheel. This was probably a combination of speed and corner (it was a highway).

[esquire]

Originally Posted by drew

They do, but not for sale in N.A. So you have to import 15+ year old used versions.

The LHD are sold in the Middle East, Africa and maybe S. America.

RHD in Japan.

You can imagine finding a 15 year old LHD in usable and trustable condition to import may be difficult...

Yeah, fair enough. I didn't realize that. In my family friend's case he owned a body shop (now retired) and has considerable mechanic skill so he has all the equipment and experience to handle whatever curveballs might come his way.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by milomilo

You are 100% correct.The benefits of autonomous vehicles are also overstated. They will not decrease congestion, they will increase it system wide, even if they may be able to utilize all the roadways in the city somewhat more efficiently. The idea that they will run closer together is also nonsense, if anything they will run further apart than humans for safety, at consistent distance at least assuming there are zero human drivers on the road - so max road capacity may increase slightly, but at the cost of lower speed, the same as today, as vehicles slow down to maintain safe following distance.

Why would autonomous cars run further apart? Computers react/calculate far faster than humans. They will most certainly run closer together. When there is 100% autonomous vehicles on the road, or close to it, there will be a capacity gain of 6 to 8 times what we have now. That would be enough to replace all transit, including Skytrain.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by logan5

Why would autonomous cars run further apart? Computers react/calculate far faster than humans. They will most certainly run closer together. When there is 100% autonomous vehicles on the road, or close to it, there will be a capacity gain of 6 to 8 times what we have now. That would be enough to replace all transit, including Skytrain.

This is detached from safety, engineering and regulatory reality and you bring up the perfect example of why in your post. Skytrain. A completely autonomous vehicle system, operating in a segregated environment under complete control of one operator. It's as safe as can be. Yet the vehicles still run with enough stopping distance to come to a complete halt if the vehicle in front of them comes to an immediate halt.

Driverless cars will be operating in a much less safe environment, there will be a diverse mix of different vehicles on the roads, human drivers, pedestrians, potholes, debris, inconsistent/poor road design, inconsistent/poor rules. And still they will be subject to even stricter requirements than human drivers. Where human drivers commonly drive far too close together, a computer will keep a larger stopping distance, it could be 4 seconds instead of the half a second or so we see people follow at.

Keeping better following distance won't necessarily reduce capacity - it might make it a little better as the traffic will flow more smoothly and reduce rolling traffic jams. But it won't be like Minority Report with cars bumper to bumper at 100km/h.

Luckily these unrealistic visions have mostly gone silent and the pushers are a bit more humble and realistic now.

[ssiguy]

Don't misunderstand me guys, I think AV certainly have a future for taxis, transport, delivery, and are great for people with disabilities finally giving them true mobility. This is also not about me being afraid of change, far from it. Technological advancement, in most cases, is a great thing and makes our lives far easier. The difference is that we embrace all these advancement because we WANT them and conversely things we don't want we won't.

Question............if they could create a single pill that would provide all our daily nutritional requirements, at a vastly cheaper price than we currently pay for our groceries, how many of you would change your eating habits to just these pills? They would be far more efficient, cost a hell of a lot less, be vastly better for the environment, and would save you untold trips and time not having to go the grocery store. This is to say nothing of never needing to go to a restaurant ever again. There is absolutely NO reason why, practically speaking, you would not switch over but somehow I don't think any of you would even contemplate such a thing.

[esquire]

^ That sounds really enticing... why wouldn't anyone consider it? I mean, you could still eat cooked meals on special occasions, but for the random run of the mill weeknights where it's just spaghetti or chicken breast, hit me with the pill instead

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by esquire

^ That sounds really enticing... why wouldn't anyone consider it? I mean, you could still eat cooked meals on special occasions, but for the random run of the mill weeknights where it's just spaghetti or chicken breast, hit me with the pill instead

Agreed, why not? As long as no one is stopping you from indulging when you so please. Indeed, we are going along that track anyway, we are able to spend far less time preparing food today than before.

[Gat-Train]

Since we're talking about autonomous cars, here's an idea: Terminator but with self-driving cars.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by esquire

The only reason they are common in Europe is because postwar Europe was generally poor compared to the US... cars were very basic and few had money for upgrades like automatic transmissions. So standards caught on and remained even after prosperity increased.

The days of the econobox standard transmission car in North America died in the 90s. I'd wager that most of the standard cars sold now are high end sports cars, i.e. to hobbyists who like to spend money on their hobby.

I am a fan of manuals, though it's been several vehicles (so decades) since I have had one.

One of the things I've loved about trips to Europe is when we rent cars, they're almost always manuals.

Though even in Europe automatics are really gaining in market share. I expect that eventually they will end up where we are.

That said, over the summer I was in the market for a used car for one of my kids (my kids only know how to drive automatics so far) and on the Montreal used car market which we were exploring due to its humongous size, I was surprised how many manuals there were in the lower price categories, ie between 8,000 and 12,000.

It wasn't most of them but there were still a lot. Ford Fiesta and Toyota Yaris type of stuff.

[esquire]

^ Yeah, there are still some basic sub-compact cars that have available standard transmissions to meet a certain price point, and since smaller cars tend to be more popular in Quebec I could see there being a good number of those types of standards around Quebec than in the rest of the country.

[ssiguy]

I think you AV cheerleaders are being naive at best and hypocritical at worse. I would love to continue this conversation 50 years from now after the government has shoved this AV down our collective throats and see how your opinions have changed.

You would be lamenting the days when you could go 130km/hr on the freeway instead of your maximum 90. Being able to "gun it" when you start from a red light instead of a slow crawl to maximise your electric efficiency, not having to wait for 3 lights instead of 1 to make a left-hand turn because only one car can legally be in the intersection, not having to wait for all the pedestrians to COMPLETELY cross the street or crosswalk before you can turn right on a red, being able to do a U turn to get that parking spot and hence not having to wander around the block endlessly, not having to stop at every yellow light, and being to make your 200km trip half an hour faster that what it now takes..........your governor will be your new 4 letter word.

Added to all this your AV has lost some of it's luster being stuck in traffic in our downtown cores knowing your new AV allows you the luxury of going no where fast all due to our lovely pedestrians. Right now no one crosses in the middle of a road not due to illegality but rather the rational fear of being hit by a car which is why we do in the middle of the night when there is no such concern. Now, with AV 100% effective, we can cross any time regardless of the traffic and bring our streets to a screeching halt.

In 50 years we be longing for the days when Grandma could get us to our destination faster than our AVs.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Gat-Train

Since we're talking about autonomous cars, here's an idea: Terminator but with self-driving cars.

I’ve always thought of Elon Musk as a sort of Miles Dyson. For a guy who constantly talks about the dangers of AI, he sure is trying hard to get as many intelligent robots onto our roads.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I think you AV cheerleaders are being naive at best and hypocritical at worse. I would love to continue this conversation 50 years from now after the government has shoved this AV down our collective throats and see how your opinions have changed.

You would be lamenting the days when you could go 130km/hr on the freeway instead of your maximum 90. Being able to "gun it" when you start from a red light instead of a slow crawl to maximise your electric efficiency, not having to wait for 3 lights instead of 1 to make a left-hand turn because only one car can legally be in the intersection, not having to wait for all the pedestrians to COMPLETELY cross the street or crosswalk before you can turn right on a red, being able to do a U turn to get that parking spot and hence not having to wander around the block endlessly, not having to stop at every yellow light, and being to make your 200km trip half an hour faster that what it now takes..........your governor will be your new 4 letter word.

Added to all this your AV has lost some of it's luster being stuck in traffic in our downtown cores knowing your new AV allows you the luxury of going no where fast all due to our lovely pedestrians. Right now no one crosses in the middle of a road not due to illegality but rather the rational fear of being hit by a car which is why we do in the middle of the night when there is no such concern. Now, with AV 100% effective, we can cross any time regardless of the traffic and bring our streets to a screeching halt.

In 50 years we be longing for the days when Grandma could get us to our destination faster than our AVs.

This post is hilarious. You're quite the fanciful luddite.

In any scenario where all cars are automated, they'll all be moving faster, not slower. Technology allows for that.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

You would be lamenting the days when you could go 130km/hr on the freeway instead of your maximum 90 [are you saying you break the law?]. Being able to "gun it" when you start from a red light instead of a slow crawl to maximise your electric efficiency, not having to wait for 3 lights instead of 1 to make a left-hand turn because only one car can legally be in the intersection [so you're saying you break the law], not having to wait for all the pedestrians to COMPLETELY cross the street or crosswalk before you can turn right on a red [which is the law], being able to do a U turn to get that parking spot and hence not having to wander around the block endlessly [an illegal u-turn?], not having to stop at every yellow light [which is the law, unless it's impossible to do so, and we all know that's seldom the case], and being to make your 200km trip half an hour faster that what it now takes [by breaking the law?]..........your governor will be your new 4 letter word.

What you're basically saying is that if automated vehicles become the norm, and they obey the law, you are going to miss breaking the law?

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

What you're basically saying is that if automated vehicles become the norm, and they obey the law, you are going to miss breaking the law?

Exactly. When we drive we break the law ALL the time and we are perfectly cool with that. Anybody who says they don't break traffic laws at least once a day is a pathological liar.

This has nothing to do with what is right or wrong but simply good old fashioned human nature. If everyone {or anyone} was truly concerned about public safety and willing to sacrifice their time to enhance it then we would all be gleefully and willingly be putting governors on the cars we already have.

I can only assume that all of you who abhor all the endless traffic infractions the rest of the populace engages in already have them installed on your own vehicles for the greater good, better fuel economy, and ensuring you never go over 100. Governors are very cheap and easy to install so why don't you inform us of where you got yours done so we can all sign up?