Quote:
Originally Posted by rofina
Hello Everyone.
Lets play a game!
We all love to speculate, pontificate, guess, and sometimes argue.
Its May 22, 2019.
With all the facts we have on hand, status of sales, total listings, trade war, etc, etc. Account for it all as you may.
The questions:
1. Where do you see the market 12 months from today? Lets focus on price, that's all that anyone cares. Benchmark, average, whatever.
2. Where are we in the cycle? Predict a bottom!
3. The long shot - when will YVR RE mark a new high?
Predict away everyone. Ill post mine when I have more time later on.
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What I see is a pile of fuel that keeps getting bigger waiting for a spark. A lot of people are holding off on buying but will buy as soon as it seems like the market has hit its bottom and will now recover. The ratio of housing units per a person is getting lower not higher. Interest+unemployment rates are still low and the economy is strong.
Long-term predictions point to rapid price increases before 2025. We just don't know when they'll start.
Liberals may modify the stress test pre-election. Conservatives may modify it post election.
I've seen signs that sales have picked up slightly this month but there still so bad so there's no rush to buy yet. However, sales are still happening at a decent pace, we say slowdown but the market is still decently strong.
The FBT summary trial has ended and thats a wild card depending on what the judge says in a few months.
So I'd say late 2019 we should see price gains. But so much depends on policy rather than the market so who knows.
The numbers are there, the demand is there, I feel we've put a dam in thats holding it back and its just building up now. We have huge government cash injections in BC with LNG, the pipeline, and the coast guard plan. There is a crazy amount of money entering our economy and eventually ending up in peoples hands and there going to want to spend that money on something. People only talk about foreign demand but local demand is huge and we're one of the wealthiest nations in the world so people have money.
The below is a great read.
https://chambermaster.blob.core.wind...esentation.pdf