Quote:
Originally Posted by q12
Fenwick posted this in the Halifax census thread: http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/show...55#post5584255
Since our population growth is likely higher than what the latest census numbers show, your guesstimates on Halifax's future growth are going to be off.
The $25 Billion shipbuilding contract is not just about the shipyard, there will be many spin-offs in all sectors of Halifax's economy. Halifax is also going to benefit from Shells $1 Billion off shore exploration. I would expect in the next decade that Halifax's growth rate will likely be the highest in Atlantic Canada and one of the highest in Canada.
Source
This is only showing the number of Jobs, population figures would be higher due to family members (and that's before the Shell announcement).
I wouldn't be surprised if you see a lot more New Brunswickers (including Monctonians) headed for Halifax for work in the coming decade.
And it's a little naive to think that Moncton will maintain a high rate of growth.
Not trying to bicker but if you guys keep bringing up Halifax...  |
A billion isn't as much as you think it is
And again, I'm not arguing that it will be big for Halifax. It isn't going to change the world though.
Indulge my assumptions. These are all hilariously rough estimates.
Let's say for arguments sake that every cent of that 25bn gets spent on jobs in Halifax. If you take an hourly rate of 75 (which is realistic considering overhead expenses, skills shortages driving up wars, and assuming the unions get involved). If you assume those wages stay constant with inflation, those wages will essentially double over the life of the contract. So, average it all out at 100$ an hour. 25bn, divided by 2000 hours per year, divided by 100 dollars per hour, times 25 years averages out to 5000 jobs for 25 years.
5,000 is a lot of jobs! If you double it because of spinoffs, you're left with 10k. Toss in families, etc, and you'll definitely see a big bump in population.
BUT... A very large component of that 25bn is going to be raw materials, equipment, and components. I'm not going to guess what percentage that is, however in manufacturing it isn't unrealistic for that to come in at more than 50% of your total cost. Now included in that is the significant components that will be coming from away, including raw materials. Unless I'm mistaken, there aren't any sizeable steel foundries in Atlantic Canada, so your raw steel is going to have to come from away. Raw materials component production certainly produces direct and spinoff jobs, but there's no net benefit to
Halifax if it happens to be done anywhere else.
Then of course are the hundreds if not thousands of sub-contractors who do everything from soup to nuts. Sure, a lot will be from Halifax, but that work is going to be spread all over Nova Scotia and the Maritimes. Work being done by a fab shop in New Glasgow is great for the province, but won't contribute whatsoever to jobs or population growth in Halifax.
So at the of the day, all you can do is take the most jobs possible, and subtract away. Every penny that isn't spent in Halifax is one that's helping create jobs away.
So there. Pick it apart if you want. I know it isn't air tight. But an awful lot of this type of contract is hyping it up. I can't state this enough that this type of work coming to the east coast is huge. But by no means is it a guarantee that we'll be dug out of the economic hole we've been in for decades. If anything, this should be the thing that kickstarts Maritime ambition and encourages going after even more big contracts like this.
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