What will be the next US city to get a major construction boom?

[LivinAWestLife]

I posed this question on r/skyscrapers on reddit a few days ago and it kinda blew up, generating a lot of discussion: https://reddit.com/r/skyscrapers/com...ity_to_have_a/

In the thread I mentioned NYC (inc Jersey City and Newark), Miami, Austin, Nashville, Tampa, Boston, Charlotte and Seattle still undergoing a major "skyline-changing" construction boom as of 2024, and I would have also included Atlanta and San Diego. By that, I mean a consistent construction of multiple towers tall enough to alter the city's skyline. On the other hand, there are growing cities without a corresponding change in skyline, like Orlando, San Antonio, or Jacksonville.

I didn't include some cities like Philly, Chicago, Los Angeles, or Salt Lake City since they seemed to have slowed down somewhat since 2021 in terms of proposals getting into actual construction, now that rates are high.

Many of the comments mentioned a few cities in particular, mainly Columbus, Sacramento, Detroit, Raleigh, Indinapolis, and OKC. Meanwhile, places like Louisville, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh were barely mentioned. How accurate do you think these are? What cities do you guys think will undergo a boom in the near future?

Disclaimer: I'm not American.

[Altoic]

Jersey City and St. Petersburg IMO will see the most rapid change proportional to what they already have.

By construction volume, most likely Austin, Atlanta, Miami, Nashville, and New York.

New Rochelle and Tysons, VA (Reston, too) also seem pretty active, especially with their skylines right now.

[llamaorama]

Many of the comments mentioned a few cities in particular, mainly Columbus, Sacramento, Detroit, Raleigh, Indinapolis, and OKC. Meanwhile, places like Louisville, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh were barely mentioned. How accurate do you think these are? What cities do you guys think will undergo a boom in the near future?

Not sure how accurate of an opinion I can make since I'm not an expert on any of this, but here's a pure guess:

Columbus: Seems plausible. It has the right fundamentals like a white collar economy and a central area that's desirable and has momentum because of the university and the medical district. It's had a lot of infill over the last 20 years and is just starting to have taller 10-15 story residential midrises. So who knows.

Sacramento: No idea. Not sure why its downtown has been stuck in time despite being the state capitol of the most populous US state. Sacramento has a lot of stuff going for it, but there's something weird about it.

Detroit: Maybe more of the same, where they build a midrise or two every few years while renovating historic buildings? Detroit's starting to come back to life but its also so empty too, is there enough demand?

Raleigh: Probably, Durham which is close by has sprouted a couple tall residential towers, it seems like a matter of time before Raleigh also takes off. Like Columbus, it seems to match the profile that cities like Austin and Nashville are in. Out of the cities on the list, this is one I'd most expect to really change with new growth. Right now Raleigh is sort of like 3 small towns in a trenchcoat pretending to be a city, but it's going to grow up into a major metropolitan area.

Indianapolis: It doesn't have the same image as Columbus. The central city is more blue collar. It doesn't have a lot of new development except for a couple new hotels near the convention center, etc. Probably not.

OKC: Zero chance. The economy there lives and dies by oil and gas booms and busts. That's how it ended up with a small collection of skyscrapers to begin with. It's unlikely there will be another gas boom that would make more appear. It will continue to build low-rise residential infill and might get some tall multi-story casino/resort developments from the native tribes but that's it.

Louisville: Not sure. Its too small, too white-flight-y, and not really growing fast enough. It's unlikely they would build any new tall buildings there. It's more likely to lose some of its skyscrapers as offices empty out.

SF: Obviously it will continue to build luxury residential towers, though I seriously doubt it would build another supertall.

Pittsburgh: Maybe a few new tall buildings in the future, even if the city is kind of middle of the road and not a boomtown it's pretty centralized and urban for a city of its size so there's probably demand?

[iheartthed]

Newark is probably on the verge of a residential tower boom similar to the one that began in Jersey City in the mid 00s.

Maybe Philadelphia. It is located in a land scarce region that has mostly shut off sprawl development, so conditions should be there for a skyscraper boom in the city. That city will also likely get a lot more expensive in the next decade.

I could see a tower boom develop in L.A. after the Olympics once all of the current transit expansions are in place.

[mrnyc]

i think downtown columbus is going to get a lot of development finally and a rail transit system all at once sometime soon. just a guess because they are due for a boom and its percolating.

[Cirrus]

The first superstar city that really liberalizes its zoning, without any of the usual poison pills, is going to have a construction boom unlike any seen in a US city in a century. I have no idea which city that'll be.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

Not sure how accurate of an opinion I can make since I'm not an expert on any of this, but here's a pure guess:

Indianapolis: It doesn't have the same image as Columbus. The central city is more blue collar. It doesn't have a lot of new development except for a couple new hotels near the convention center, etc. Probably not.

I go to Indy once a year for work. It has the deadest downtown of any city I've been to in the past two decades. Not sure what it's doing on this list.

It feels like most of the growth in Indy is in its new urbanist sprawlburbs...which are far nicer than the city itself. That makes any transformation even more difficult IMO.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by LivinAWestLife

I posed this question on r/skyscrapers on reddit a few days ago and it kinda blew up, generating a lot of discussion: https://reddit.com/r/skyscrapers/com...ity_to_have_a/

In the thread I mentioned NYC (inc Jersey City and Newark), Miami, Austin, Nashville, Tampa, Boston, Charlotte and Seattle still undergoing a major "skyline-changing" construction boom as of 2024, and I would have also included Atlanta and San Diego. By that, I mean a consistent construction of multiple towers tall enough to alter the city's skyline. On the other hand, there are growing cities without a corresponding change in skyline, like Orlando, San Antonio, or Jacksonville.

I didn't include some cities like Philly, Chicago, Los Angeles, or Salt Lake City since they seemed to have slowed down somewhat since 2021 in terms of proposals getting into actual construction, now that rates are high.

Many of the comments mentioned a few cities in particular, mainly Columbus, Sacramento, Detroit, Raleigh, Indinapolis, and OKC. Meanwhile, places like Louisville, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh were barely mentioned. How accurate do you think these are? What cities do you guys think will undergo a boom in the near future?

Disclaimer: I'm not American.

Weird take on Philly. It's booming.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

Sacramento: No idea. Not sure why its downtown has been stuck in time despite being the state capitol of the most populous US state. Sacramento has a lot of stuff going for it, but there's something weird about it.

There's just not a huge corporate base like the other cities mentioned, that and it's overshadowed by SF and LA. Sac was having a boom till the great recession and then had a boom after that, but some of those were related to government which is a decent portion of Sac's buildings. If you notice Sac's skyline it's generally not lit up like other skylines because the state is saving power by having the lights off.

One cool thing is the state has started to convert one of their uglier buildings () into residential. If anybody is familiar with downtown, it's the state building that has light rail going under it.

[mhays]

Seattle has slowed way down. We still have a lot of towers going up but they started in the past few years, or even several years ago and are moving slowly or paused.

This month we seem to have the start of phase 2 of a residential twin at Yesler Terrace on First Hill (21 stories, just switched the crane to that side) and (reportedly) the start of a 12-story, 200' hospital addition at Swedish, also on First Hill. They'll be skyline-changing because of their locations.

Bellevue started a 24-story office tower last year but that's the only highrise start I'm thinking of since 2022. You could argue that Amazon started a 31-story office tower but they're only building the underground parking for now (tied to the garage for a 43-story office that's 2/3 of the way up, not far from a similar building that opened this year).

The U District has completed the last of a flurry of five student housing towers in the 22-story range. Several other developers have plans for more, but all seem to be waiting for the market. The area's tallest start in 2023 was a 12-story office atop a light rail subway station that opened a couple years ago.

[craigs]

LA has been pretty consistently building one or two skyscrapers at a time for the last several years. Right now, a 594' residential tower is under construction that will expand the downtown skyline to the southeast. A 390' residential tower is being constructed in the Arts District near the LA River. While that's not terribly tall, it is the tallest tower in that part of the city, so it is very prominent on the skyline from several angles. Also, a 569' office tower is being constructed in Century City. However, it is surrounded on two sides by four taller towers, so this one won't likely change the skyline much.

[Steely Dan]

Three significant projects in chicago all just landed construction loans over the past several weeks. An 850 footer, a 500 footer, and a 350 footer, so things are looking up in the windy city for 2024 tower starts!

And with financing finally fucking easing a bit, there's a ton of west loop stuff on the boards just waiting for money.

[pdxtex]

I'm going to say the lower midwest and upper south is poised for growth. Knoxville, Indianapolis, Louisville, Cincinnati, St Louis and Kansas City. Id also say its about
to be full steam ahead in the PNW. I sense some settling pandemic dust and a recent report said the CBD was at 20 percent vacancy. That seems pretty good. Inner SE industrial area is poised to become Pearl District 2.0. I think traditionally the city has frowned on high density development in this area but the market wants it more than our light industry past. We'll see.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Weird take on Philly. It's booming.

Does that mean the SSP database for Philadelphia needs updating? It only shows 1 building 150m+ under construction. It does show 16 at the Proposal stage though.

[Dariusb]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

Not sure how accurate of an opinion I can make since I'm not an expert on any of this, but here's a pure guess:

Columbus: Seems plausible. It has the right fundamentals like a white collar economy and a central area that's desirable and has momentum because of the university and the medical district. It's had a lot of infill over the last 20 years and is just starting to have taller 10-15 story residential midrises. So who knows.

Sacramento: No idea. Not sure why its downtown has been stuck in time despite being the state capitol of the most populous US state. Sacramento has a lot of stuff going for it, but there's something weird about it.

Detroit: Maybe more of the same, where they build a midrise or two every few years while renovating historic buildings? Detroit's starting to come back to life but its also so empty too, is there enough demand?

Raleigh: Probably, Durham which is close by has sprouted a couple tall residential towers, it seems like a matter of time before Raleigh also takes off. Like Columbus, it seems to match the profile that cities like Austin and Nashville are in. Out of the cities on the list, this is one I'd most expect to really change with new growth. Right now Raleigh is sort of like 3 small towns in a trenchcoat pretending to be a city, but it's going to grow up into a major metropolitan area.

Indianapolis: It doesn't have the same image as Columbus. The central city is more blue collar. It doesn't have a lot of new development except for a couple new hotels near the convention center, etc. Probably not.

OKC: Zero chance. The economy there lives and dies by oil and gas booms and busts. That's how it ended up with a small collection of skyscrapers to begin with. It's unlikely there will be another gas boom that would make more appear. It will continue to build low-rise residential infill and might get some tall multi-story casino/resort developments from the native tribes but that's it.

Louisville: Not sure. Its too small, too white-flight-y, and not really growing fast enough. It's unlikely they would build any new tall buildings there. It's more likely to lose some of its skyscrapers as offices empty out.

SF: Obviously it will continue to build luxury residential towers, though I seriously doubt it would build another supertall.

Pittsburgh: Maybe a few new tall buildings in the future, even if the city is kind of middle of the road and not a boomtown it's pretty centralized and urban for a city of its size so there's probably demand?

As for OKC, this has been proposed but not sure if this will ever be built or even a serious proposal:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...r/72371121007/

[LivinAWestLife]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Weird take on Philly. It's booming.

Yeah, just checked my list and I think there's about 20 high-rises under construction? No proposals that are spectacularly tall since Arthaus and The Laurel are complete, but overall it looks to be very healthy, and I probably should've included it as well.

[ColDayMan]

Columbus is more DC than Nashville/Austin in growth with yuppie boxes/midrises going up everywhere. The city is starting to work on some 15-20+ story buildings that got approval but nothing like the booms in Austin or Nashville. And honestly, I'm fine with it as it's infilling downtown's parking lots fast. My dream for the eastside of downtown Columbus is more Pearl District (pre-COVID) versus The Gulch.

These types of things are going up currently:


https://www.theestrellacolumbus.com/

[theOGalexd]

San Antonio has had a handful of projects in the last 4-6 years that are some of the cities tallest. Not a boom like Austin, but significant to the skyline. The first high rise apartment tower downtown just topped out so I'd imagine if that does well there will be more where that came from.

The problem here is the $$ and the corps are out in the suburbs, so if there's going to be high rises/skyscrapers going up downtown, it's gonna be hotels and residential.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

The first superstar city that really liberalizes its zoning, without any of the usual poison pills, is going to have a construction boom unlike any seen in a US city in a century. I have no idea which city that'll be.

Houston is the closest any major city comes to having this already, and it’s building is in line with everywhere else growing. Granted, theirs is the conservative approach. Austin is taking massive measures without poison pills to liberalize.

[LivinAWestLife]

Originally Posted by theOGalexd

San Antonio has had a handful of projects in the last 4-6 years that are some of the cities tallest. Not a boom like Austin, but significant to the skyline. The first high rise apartment tower downtown just topped out so I'd imagine if that does well there will be more where that came from.

The problem here is the $$ and the corps are out in the suburbs, so if there's going to be high rises/skyscrapers going up downtown, it's gonna be hotels and residential.

Nice, that's better than I thought. I knew about Frost Tower but not the others. Fort Worth is completing a new residential tower (Deco 969) in its downtown, its first iirc. Maybe this is indicative of a possible trend in those cities?