Lamenting the decline of the car

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Sure you can refit if everyone agrees, but how many chargers to serve some of these larger buildings. For example, I see an older building like Harbour Cove has 304 units. Are 4-10 chargers even enough to service that without fuelling the petty animosities that already thrive in condos? Is every EV owner going to rush down and move their car off the charger the minute it is finished?

No I'm talking about wiring up every stall.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Yeah, I guess I'm not sold on VW and Ford's first attempts being glitch free though. Even before factoring the EV stuff, they're both in the bottom 5 as far as reliability (along with Tesla). Would they be easier to fix? Probably given the service network and presumably better customer service. Teslas notoriously take a long time for simple repairs. However, they could also be like GM and have major battery issues, an area in which we at least know Tesla does well in. Long term reliability is still a question mark for VW and Ford EVs, and even more so given it being the first year of production.



https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...vs/6337648002/

It's not directly logical, but I'd be more willing to take my chances with Ford or VW. Most of Tesla's issues are with the basic of building a car rather than the power train. On the other side, GM's Bolt aside, most automakers who have gone electric aren't having their cars catch fire. Battery fires after all are still more rare than a gas car catching fire.

VW in particular will be closing in on a million EVs delivered across the group before a single ID4 is even shipped in Canada. That's about where Tesla was last March. So I think they've got the stats to back up their quality.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's not directly logical, but I'd be more willing to take my chances with Ford or VW. Most of Tesla's issues are with the basic of building a car rather than the power train. On the other side, GM's Bolt aside, most automakers who have gone electric aren't having their cars catch fire. Battery fires after all are still more rare than a gas car catching fire.

VW in particular will be closing in on a million EVs delivered across the group before a single ID4 is even shipped in Canada. That's about where Tesla was last March. So I think they've got the stats to back up their quality.

Ironically, it's the electrical system on gas powered VWs that I've known people to have problems with.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by wave46

Ironically, it's the electrical system on gas powered VWs that I've known people to have problems with.

Yeah. But the electrical system in a gas/diesel car really doesn't have much in common with a BEV.

[ssiguy]

EV's are a real threat to car dealers.

Edmunds stated, on an article on June 19/2019, that a survey done by the National Dealers Association of America has found that things will be grim for the sector. The article on 'Where do dealers make their money?' states that a whopping 49.6% of dealer profits come not from sales but maintenance, repairs, and equipment.

That spells big trouble for individual dealers as battery vehicles require far smaller amounts of maintenance and has vastly fewer moving parts. Due to this I think we will see a huge consolidation of dealerships and many smaller brands and dealers in smaller centres going completely dealership-free with just localised vehicles available for test drives.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

That spells big trouble for individual dealers as battery vehicles require far smaller amounts of maintenance and has vastly fewer moving parts. Due to this I think we will see a huge consolidation of dealerships and many smaller brands and dealers in smaller centres going completely dealership-free with just localised vehicles available for test drives.

There is indeed a risk, absolutely and no question.

Still, there has been a remarkable profusion of high end dealerships in Moncton over the last dozen years or so, beginning with BMW/Mini, and also including Audi, Infiniti, Mercedes Benz and soon Jaguar and Land Rover. Why would these brands be increasing their dealership networks into medium sized cities if they were concerned about their viability?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

There is indeed a risk, absolutely and no question.

Still, there has been a remarkable profusion of high end dealerships in Moncton over the last dozen years or so, beginning with BMW/Mini, and also including Audi, Infiniti, Mercedes Benz and soon Jaguar and Land Rover. Why would these brands be increasing their dealership networks into medium sized cities if they were concerned about their viability?

Because there are quite a few morons out there who vastly underestimate how quickly electrification will come on and think their investment in a particular dealer franchise will pay off substantially. I doubt many of them even think that electrics are a thing that will threaten their revenue stream.

To be fair, like I've said earlier the fleet mix will lag the sales mix by 5-10 years. So these dealerships won't even begin to see a decline in service revenue till well later in the decade. The problem for them is that it will come awfully quickly when it does. By the mid-2030s there will be dealerships in smaller towns that are closing. By 2040, the population threshold to support a dealership could be six figures. And that's assuming that we aren't going down the TaaS pathway and getting rid of personally owned vehicles completely by then.

The smart dealerships will start planning to downsize their garages and expand their showrooms. Garages should basically be focused on bodywork, detailing and light servicing for the BEV era.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

No I'm talking about wiring up every stall.

In my condo, we're planning to install L2 chargers at a handful of stalls and creating a system where charger spaces are shuffled around so EV owners can get those stalls, with a plan to gradually add more as demand grows. In 15 years we expect every stall to have charging.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

No I'm talking about wiring up every stall.

Doing this is really going to require some serious government intervention and assistance.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by CityTech

In my condo, we're planning to install L2 chargers at a handful of stalls and creating a system where charger spaces are shuffled around so EV owners can get those stalls, with a plan to gradually add more as demand grows. In 15 years we expect every stall to have charging.

Not even sure that will be necessary. Next generation batteries (solid state) will be able to charge in 10 minutes at level 3 chargers. May just be easier to go to a level 3 charger than to plug your car in for hours at a stall at home.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by logan5

Not even sure that will be necessary. Next generation batteries (solid state) will be able to charge in 10 minutes at level 3 chargers. May just be easier to go to a level 3 charger than to plug your car in for hours at a stall at home.

Charging at home is always going to be easier than going somewhere else. Especially if it's not a concurrent activity.

That said, solid state batteries might make it possible to get a full charge in a 15 min Starbucks break, or grocery run would substantially reduce the issues with apartment/condo charging.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

EV's are a real threat to car dealers.

Edmunds stated, on an article on June 19/2019, that a survey done by the National Dealers Association of America has found that things will be grim for the sector. The article on 'Where do dealers make their money?' states that a whopping 49.6% of dealer profits come not from sales but maintenance, repairs, and equipment.

That spells big trouble for individual dealers as battery vehicles require far smaller amounts of maintenance and has vastly fewer moving parts. Due to this I think we will see a huge consolidation of dealerships and many smaller brands and dealers in smaller centres going completely dealership-free with just localised vehicles available for test drives.

How often do ICE cars have power train problems? (Which is why power trains often come with really long warranties). I guess they will lose oil changes but still have tires, brake pads, body work, glass. Depending on the lifespan of batteries, $5k-$7k for a battery replacement is a pretty significant haul for the dealer.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by CityTech

In my condo, we're planning to install L2 chargers at a handful of stalls and creating a system where charger spaces are shuffled around so EV owners can get those stalls, with a plan to gradually add more as demand grows. In 15 years we expect every stall to have charging.

15 years??? Jesus. Does your condo board realize what the average human lifespan is?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

How often do ICE cars have power train problems? (Which is why power trains often come with really long warranties). I guess they will lose oil changes but still have tires, brake pads, body work, glass. Depending on the lifespan of batteries, $5k-$7k for a battery replacement is a pretty significant haul for the dealer.

Regen braking means that BEVs wear out brake pads a lot slower. This was seen with hybrids a decade ago. Only going to go further with BEVs.

And bodywork too is debatable. The sensors on BEVs are going to reduce collisions. And the heavier weights of the batteries is increasingly driving a push for lighter body materials like plastics and carbon fibre. Some of those new materials are more damage resistant. But most importantly they will end up being panels that are simply replaced. All this in combination will reduce bodywork for them.

As for battery replacements, they are right now lasting longer than the cars themselves. But in any scenario where this becomes an actual business, it'll be a rather short appointment to swap out a pack. Not something the dealership can get tons of labour for. And it may happen once in a car's life.

There's some minor servicing like replacing the air filter, lubricating the brake calipers, replacing the brake fluid, rotating the tires, etc. Most of this is somewhere between an annual to bi-annual requirement. So basically a single 1-2 hr servicing appointment might be all that's necessary. Dealerships can survive off that. Places like Jiffy Lube are probably in trouble.

Originally Posted by theman23

15 years??? Jesus. Does your condo board realize what the average human lifespan is?

I think they are just looking to keep fees low and scale infrastructure with demand. Let's assume that it cost $2000 to provide an outlet at each spot. Mortgage that over 15 years and it's about $13-16/month per spot. Good luck finding a majority of residents in most condos who would vote for a $15/mo fee increase for something they don't and won't use for a while. Will probably take a decade to change those attitudes.

[drew]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think they are just looking to keep fees low and scale infrastructure with demand. Let's assume that it cost $2000 to provide an outlet at each spot. Mortgage that over 15 years and it's about $13-16/month per spot. Good luck finding a majority of residents in most condos who would vote for a $15/mo fee increase for something they don't and won't use for a while. Will probably take a decade to change those attitudes.

The wiring to each stall is the easy bit. The issue is the amount of electrical supply to the building that will eventually need to go up to actually service these stalls adequately. That's where the $$ comes in.

[Coldrsx]

Edmonton discussing tollroads, parking costs as it wants to increase transit usage from 9% to 30%.

Instead of a stick, how about a carrot by way of a low-cost, efficient and effective city-wide system...

argh

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by drew

The wiring to each stall is the easy bit. The issue is the amount of electrical supply to the building that will eventually need to go up to actually service these stalls adequately. That's where the $$ comes in.

That's what I was referring too. That $2k cost is what it might cost to wire up each parking spot with basically a dryer outlet (NEMA 14-30/14-50) when the whole project cost is added up. Including adding additional service to the building and metering. A Level 2 charger is an additional cost on top of that.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Coldrsx

Edmonton discussing tollroads, parking costs as it wants to increase transit usage from 9% to 30%.

Instead of a stick, how about a carrot by way of a low-cost, efficient and effective city-wide system...

argh

Why? Carrots never work on this. People always have an excuse on why they "need" to drive. Price the roadspace at peak appropriately and you'll get to see how much of that "need" is real and the people who are willing to pay a premium for it.

[Coldrsx]

I don't disagree that we need to work on the elasticity of demand side of things and have them more properly reflect 'true costs', but the carrot is equally and I would argue more important here.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by logan5

Not even sure that will be necessary. Next generation batteries (solid state) will be able to charge in 10 minutes at level 3 chargers. May just be easier to go to a level 3 charger than to plug your car in for hours at a stall at home.

We've made the bet that home charging overnight will always be more convenient, and by offering this in our parking spaces, it will be a bonus to our property values.