Halifax Population Projections

[halifaxboyns]

Since I was looking at the Halifax MPS (for the Former City); I decided to have a boo through the Regional Plan; especially after the recent news that the population has passed 400,000.

Now; when the plan was being written (2001); the population of HRM was 359090.

Here is what the population growth scenarios looked like; with low, average and high growth and end population numbers in 2026:

Base Population (2001) 359,090 + Low growth population (over 25 years) 52,000 = 411,090 by 2026. So obviously - Halifax isn't seeing low growth.

Base Population (2001) 359,090 + Average growth population (over 25 years) 84,000 = 443,090 by 2026. Possible that this could work; but unlikely considering HRM is at 400,000 now (with 9 years of growth being 40,910; if that level remains constant by 2019 the population would be 440,910 with 7 more years to go on the plan).

Base Population (2001) 359,090 + High Growth population (over 25 years) of 125,000 = 484,090 by 2026.

Now I did some population forcasting based on an average of 1.5 to 2.0 percent increase and by 2026 I came out with just over 510,000 - but that assumes that you have two to three years that growth remains the same (1.5; 1.5 and 1.5 and then 1.6 growth).

I did some number crunching and based on the average growth scenario; it looks like the population by 2026 would be around 450,000 - which is slightly higher than average growth, but less than high. Still pretty impressive.

Not sure whether there was a thread on this; I looked and didn't see anything. Please move if need be!