Originally Posted by Raja
Reasons to limit in-person contact:
- A quarter million deaths and counting in eight months.
- COVID is still a new disease. We do not understand the long-term implications, and it appears increasingly likely that there are many. COVID will continue to cost Americans their health and money for a long time.
- COVID patients are extraordinarily high-maintenance. They require several machines, the course of the disease is lengthy, and the high transmission rate requires precautions that slow acute treatment. Consequently, COVID spikes are an enormous burden on the health system as a whole. On the consumer side, patients suffer a severe depletion of access. For example, the Jefferson ER has already been on divert several times in the past few weeks, meaning they are full and CANNOT receive patients by ambulance. Those patients must go elsewhere. Doctors from other fields must be pulled to help cover COVID patients. Heart patients, lung patients, etc. etc. do not receive the same level of acute care they otherwise would enjoy. The burdens trickle down, and every health care consumer suffers. On the provider side, hospitals must cancel the elective procedures that generate most of the revenue. Hesitant patients visit less frequently. Ask any health administrator in Philadelphia. They will all tell you that COVID could bankrupt the system.
Reasons not to limit in-person contact:
- In-person social interaction has important mental health benefits, particularly for children.
- Brick-and-mortar retailers, including restaurants and--yes--transit agencies, rely largely on in-person interaction. These businesses will suffer greatly if social movement and interaction is reduced. The farther they fall, the longer it will take to build them back up.
The American worldview starts from the premise of freedom of choice. In an ideal world, individuals would be left to weigh these costs and make their own decisions about how to approach COVID. In an ideal world, those choosing to risk contracting COVID could sign a waiver agreeing not to seek treatment, and to compensate the damages befalling any individual to whom she spreads the disease. But unfortunately, such a system is cumbersome, and medical ethics do not permit it anyways. American behavioral norms--demanding and blame-deflecting--do not jibe with the American worldview, and free rider problems abound.
So what to do? Perhaps take an incremental approach. Require masks, reduce capacity, require brief closures if necessary. In other words, do exactly what we're doing. And at the same time, provide financial support. I mean, christ, if we can spend a trillion dollars a year on national defense during times of peace, then we can do the same for other national force majeures.
Also, the development of two highly efficacious vaccines in eight months has been remarkable.
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