Douglas Todd: People are moving from other provinces to B.C., but avoiding Metro Van

[Sheba]

“We have had lots of people from Alberta and the East cashing out and moving to Nanaimo — to get away from the crush and the smoke,” says Leonard Krog, mayor of the growing Vancouver Island city.

During the pandemic, which is changing many Canadians’ housing needs, Nanaimo and other smaller B.C. towns, such as Comox as well as Kamloops and Penticton, are seeing an upsurge of arrivals from across the country.

“House prices are rising up and down Vancouver Island,” said Krog.

A recent Statistics Canada report showed that B.C. received more inter-provincial migrants than any other province between 2020 and 2021.

B.C.’s net inter-provincial growth, which captures the number of people who arrived compared to those who left, stood at 34,000 during this COVID period. That compares to 27,000 in 2016, and 16,000 in 2019.

But only a small portion of newcomers to B.C. from other provinces typically move to Metro Vancouver.

Indeed, in addition, about 12,000 more people a year have been moving out of Metro Vancouver for other parts of B.C. than have been moving into the metropolis from within the province.

...

While Metro Vancouver’s real-estate industry often points to inter-provincial migration to explain why housing prices are skyrocketing, the reality is people from other provinces typically only account for about 15 per cent of the metropolis’s growth .

The vast majority of new arrivals into Metro Vancouver are foreign-born immigrants. The rate of new permanent residents to Metro is normally about 36,000 annually, but that total went down in the past year due to pandemic border restrictions.

Recent Statistics Canada data shows the city of Nanaimo, population 90,000, is on a per-capita basis absorbing 13 times more new people from other provinces than Metro Vancouver, population 2.5 million.

In addition, a solid portion of the thousands who each year say goodbye to Metro Vancouver are ending up in Nanaimo, which is growing by about 1,600 people annually from what StatsCan calls “intra-provincial migration.”

Greater Victoria, unlike Metro Vancouver, is also expanding from absorbing people from within the province. And despite being much smaller, it normally takes in as many people from across Canada as B.C.’s largest city.

...

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/col...etro-vancouver

[giallo]

"Recent Statistics Canada data shows the city of Nanaimo, population 90,000, is on a per-capita basis absorbing 13 times more new people from other provinces than Metro Vancouver, population 2.5 million."

Maybe it's just me, but it feels like Metro Vancouver's official population has been 2.5 million for a decade.

[Changing City]

This article is very confusing, and looks like an 'I've got to write 2,000 words for Friday' piece.

It's throwing in all sorts of 'data' as if they're equivalent. The first data mentioned is about BC getting 34,000 more people through net interprovincial migration. It isn't made clear, but that's the migration data for the 2nd Quarter of 2021, reported by StatsCan on 29th September. Ontario lost a lot of people, Alberta lost some too, BC gained the most. More details here.

It then says "Recent Statistics Canada data shows the city of Nanaimo, population 90,000, is on a per-capita basis absorbing 13 times more new people from other provinces than Metro Vancouver, population 2.5 million." That's not for the same period. The last dataset was released in January this year, and the 'Nanaimo' references the Regional District (with 156,000 population) not the City of Nanaimo with 90,000. So Doug's math is off in calculating the relative net growth. The equivalent (2016 census) population for Vancouver was 2.46m. Both would be higher now, but there's no 2021 census data until next year.

The data for the past several years shows about 1,000 net interprovincial migration to Nanaimo, and about 4,000 to Greater Vancouver. It doesn't tell you anything about how many people actually moved to either location, because it's a net number. It seems reasonable to think quite a few of the people who move to Nanaimo move there to retire, and some of those will be from other provinces. That's supported by the death rates - 16,357 deaths were recorded in Greater Vancouver 2019-20 and 1,827 in Nanaimo - almost double the death rate of Vancouver.

So the story overall isn't completely wrong - there's a net gain of people to Nanaimo from other provinces at a greater rate than to Greater Vancouver. Is that significant? Possibly only if your job depends on filling a column with confusing statistics and quotes from an available politician before deadline.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Changing City

So the story overall isn't completely wrong - there's a net gain of people to Nanaimo from other provinces at a greater rate than to Greater Vancouver. Is that significant? Possibly only if your job depends on filling a column with confusing statistics and quotes from an available politician before deadline.

It's telling that he doesn't link to any of the stats that bolster his narrative.

[whatnext]

Why would any Canadian who has been paying taxes a real Canadian career move to Metro Vancouver? The ridiculous housing costs guarantee your standard of living will be lower.

[SpongeG]

people aren't allowed to other parts of BC?

[svlt]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Why would any Canadian who has been paying taxes a real Canadian career move to Metro Vancouver? The ridiculous housing costs guarantee your standard of living will be lower.

OK, but let's compare the standard of life in Nanaimo, Kamloops, Prince George... really now... I see it goes both ways but when someone uses an absolute like "Why would any Canadian", seriously give a good thought to what life is like in those little towns and check back.

(Before anyone says Victoria, check Redfin there. Not much of a discount to Vancouver anymore).

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Why would any Canadian who has been paying taxes a real Canadian career move to Metro Vancouver? The ridiculous housing costs guarantee your standard of living will be lower.

The 416 area of Metro Toronto - which has at least as many residents as Greater Vancouver - had a benchmark apartment price of $739,647 last month. That's almost identical to the $746,400 in the REBGV area.

In the 905 GTA 'burbs the benchmark condo was $634,000, and in the Fraser Valley the benchmark apartment was $500,000 last month.

Given that Toronto condo fees are generally higher than in Vancouver, any condo owner moving from Toronto to Vancouver would find an equivalent cost of living would be lower for apartment ownership here than there.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The 416 area of Metro Toronto - which has at least as many residents as Greater Vancouver - had a benchmark apartment price of $739,647 last month. That's almost identical to the $746,400 in the REBGV area.

In the 905 GTA 'burbs the benchmark condo was $634,000, and in the Fraser Valley the benchmark apartment was $500,000 last month.

Given that Toronto condo fees are generally higher than in Vancouver, any condo owner moving from Toronto to Vancouver would find an equivalent cost of living would be lower for apartment ownership here than there.

I was browsing Toronto condos maybe couple weeks ago.

I cant believe how expensive, and comparable to Vancouver, Toronto has become.

I always remember Downtown Toronto being laughably cheap compared to Vancouver, in years past.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by svlt

OK, but let's compare the standard of life in Nanaimo, Kamloops, Prince George... really now... I see it goes both ways but when someone uses an absolute like "Why would any Canadian", seriously give a good thought to what life is like in those little towns and check back.

I don't know if Nanaimo is the best choice for the point you're trying to make. Yes, it is a smaller city (90,000) but it is directly linked to the Lower Mainland by two ferry routes. You can be in Victoria in less than two hours; in three hours you can be just about anywhere in Metro Vancouver. Plus, not everyone needs or wants everything that Vancouver offers. It is quite common now for people to live directly adjacent to Vancouver - such as in Burnaby or on the North Shore - and not have a need to go downtown very often, if at all.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

I don't know if Nanaimo is the best choice for the point you're trying to make. Yes, it is a smaller city (90,000) but it is directly linked to the Lower Mainland by two ferry routes. You can be in Victoria in less than two hours; in three hours you can be just about anywhere in Metro Vancouver. Plus, not everyone needs or wants everything that Vancouver offers. It is quite common now for people to live directly adjacent to Vancouver - such as in Burnaby or on the North Shore - and not have a need to go downtown very often, if at all.

Nanaimo is the comparison because that's where Doug Todd's article offers as where people are moving to, rather than Metro Vancouver (including Burnaby and Downtown). Houses are much cheaper in Nanaimo - benchmark price last month for a detached home was $755,000, but that's up 28% in a year from $590,000 in October 2020. Apartments were $417,000, up 30.5% in a year.

Greater Vancouver prices were $1,850,000 for a detached in October 2021, up 20.5% in a year, and apartments were $746,400, up 'only' 9.5% in a year.

[VantageHD]

OK, but let's compare the standard of life in Nanaimo, Kamloops, Prince George... really now... I see it goes both ways but when someone uses an absolute like "Why would any Canadian", seriously give a good thought to what life is like in those little towns and check back.

It's much better in Kamloops. It is laughable to think that any area of metro Vancouver would have a higher quality of life than Kamloops. Just speaking from living in Burnaby and moving to Kamloops, there's really no comparison. It's why so many are moving here with the ability to work remotely.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Why would any Canadian who has been paying taxes a real Canadian career move to Metro Vancouver? The ridiculous housing costs guarantee your standard of living will be lower.

Because we're MAD I say! mad crazy!

To some, Vancouver is a major upgrade for city living. They chose to remain in a city. My cost of living is pretty similar to Alberta, but my quality of living, for me, is non-comparable.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by Sheba

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/col...etro-vancouver

Not surprised at all about this.

Originally Posted by rofina

I was browsing Toronto condos maybe couple weeks ago.

I cant believe how expensive, and comparable to Vancouver, Toronto has become.

I always remember Downtown Toronto being laughably cheap compared to Vancouver, in years past.

I think our empty home tax has a lot to do with this. Investors simply move on to the next available market. At least Toronto does not have a lot of stupid restrictions for housing creating like we have here, so people can still find cheaper housing, albeit a little away from the city centre.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Vin

Not surprised at all about this.



I think our empty home tax has a lot to do with this. Investors simply move on to the next available market. At least Toronto does not have a lot of stupid restrictions for housing creating like we have here, so people can still find cheaper housing, albeit a little away from the city centre.

Don't be so sure the Empty Homes Tax is deterring foreign buyers:


Mortimer
@mortimer_1
·
20h
Just another day in Vancouver, Canada real estate...

Home bought for 16,980,000 in March 2021

Now available to rent for $45,000 per month
https://www.vancouverluxuryrentals.c...operty-id-4915

Guess the occupation of the owner... I'll give you a hint... It starts with Home... and ends with Maker

https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/statu...08528403324929

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by VantageHD

It's much better in Kamloops. It is laughable to think that any area of metro Vancouver would have a higher quality of life than Kamloops. Just speaking from living in Burnaby and moving to Kamloops, there's really no comparison. It's why so many are moving here with the ability to work remotely.

I made the opposite move and have the opposite opinion. I am young and career-driven, and Kamloops was simply too slow for me.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Yeah, it's important to remember that "quality of life" means different things to different people. So long as you don't stop anybody else from moving in next door to enjoy the same things you do, what's the harm?

[Changing City]

I thought this was the right thread to bump with the latest census data. The thread was started with some dubious math from the Vancouver Sun's Doug Todd, who took some partial data and interpreted it rather oddly.

Now the Statistics Canada has published detailed census data that shows 5 year and 1 year migration, up to 2021, so the 1-year data shows how people were moving around in Canada during the pandemic. (The data is at CMA level, so 'Vancouver' is Metro Vancouver, not the City).

CBC have provided a visual guide to the intraprovincial migration (that is moving around within Canada between provinces).

They also provide a chart to answer the question "Which cities saw the highest number of migrants from other parts of the country between 2020 and 2021?"

(Net figure based on total number of in-migrants and total out-migrants in 2021)

They conclude "affordable housing apparently isn't the only reason people moved since Vancouver — where the cost of housing remains famously high — had a net increase of nearly 38,000 residents."

It had easily the greatest growth - Ottawa was second with just under 15,000 additional movers. Toronto lost 24,000.