[Halifax] Halifax Shopping Centre Redevelopment | ? m | ? fl | Proposed

[counterfactual]

Originally Posted by fenwick16

I think online shopping will soon start to plateau; I use online shopping for specific requirements, however, when I want something immediately then I go to a big box store.

I can understand the demise of Walmart; it is the last place I would go to buy an item.

The death of Walmart will be one of the greatest things for workers and small businesses alike, depressing worker wages and killing local/independent businesses wherever they've set up.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by counterfactual

Is 2003 the best data they have? Over a decade old. I think consumer preferences will significantly change as Millennials become the primary consumers.

Big boxes/power centres are not going to survive in an Amazon / urban format world. That's my prediction. All of the "benefits" of big box are actually totally and completely answered by Amazon: why drive in congested highway to big box retail if I can just order what I want online? If I don't like any kind of parking lot or spending money on gas, why should I? Also: lower prices and better variety too. Urban shops, which are easier to get to for urban populations, will survive due to convenience. That's why all big box retailers are already considering smaller formatted stores for urban environments. The writing is on the wall. You can see it etched in the charred remains of Future Shop, Target Canada, Rona, Radio Shack, and the slow death of Walmart, Best Buy, and Target (America).

The Fate Of America's Dying Supercenters
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-f...centers-2014-8

Wall Street Analysts Predict The Slow Demise Of Walmart And Target
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5630572.html

Big box retail and power centres are dying. Of course, these trends will take a while to impact here in Halifax. Because Halifax loves cars and big box! But they will die. They're not sustainable.

Well, said, CF, although a couple of your examples are IMHO a product of business practices rather than shopping trends. i.e.:
-Future shop is a direct result of Best Buy purchasing Future Shop and thus wanting to reduce the number of redundant outlets. I'm not aware that Best Buy is in trouble, although you mention them as well. Admittedly, I don't have time to read your supplied links at the moment, but I'll try to get to them later.
- Target Canada is clearly a case of poor planning and terrible business practices - a comedy of errors IMHO. There's lots of info out there on that one. Again, I wasn't aware that Target USA was in trouble as well, but maybe that is because of Target Canada?
- Rona, I think, is a case of the weakest link in a saturated market of big box home improvement stores, though their recent purchase by Lowe's indicates that there is some value in the brand (plus I'm sure they were a great deal due to our horrific dollar exchange).
- I've never looked at Radio Shack as a big box store, although perhaps they are in the US? The Canadian outlets that I remember (and later, The Source) were all just small stores in a plaza or mall.
- Walmart dying out would be poetic justice, IMHO, bring it on...

I do question whether online purchasing will take over as the best option, though. It's great for purchases that you don't need right now but still not as convenient as just going to the store and picking it up, at least for me. Plus, it's a pain if it has to be returned, etc. Buying clothing online has always perplexed me, as sizing varies even within brands. I always have to go to the store and try it on as "my size" only seems to fit me half of the time. Not to mention that clothes often look much different in person than they do in a photoshopped picture of the clothing on some perfect model under perfect lighting conditions on some website....

Another thing to consider is that there will be generations after the millennials that may have different preferences again, and the cycle will continue. I don't think any of this will ever be a means to an end.

[TheGreenBastard]

Off-topic: Could someone create a thread for the Scotia Square redevelopment?

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

-Future shop is a direct result of Best Buy purchasing Future Shop and thus wanting to reduce the number of redundant outlets. I'm not aware that Best Buy is in trouble, although you mention them as well. Admittedly, I don't have time to read your supplied links at the moment, but I'll try to get to them later.

Online shopping has significantly hurt electronics stores. For a while Best Buy/Futureshop's strategy was to locate both brands near each other to provide the illusion of competition, even in smaller markets. For example, here in Fredericton I know that Best Buy was planning on opening a store despite there already being a Futureshop here. That plan evaporated after the recession.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

I do question whether online purchasing will take over as the best option, though. It's great for purchases that you don't need right now but still not as convenient as just going to the store and picking it up, at least for me. Plus, it's a pain if it has to be returned, etc. Buying clothing online has always perplexed me, as sizing varies even within brands. I always have to go to the store and try it on as "my size" only seems to fit me half of the time. Not to mention that clothes often look much different in person than they do in a photoshopped picture of the clothing on some perfect model under perfect lighting conditions on some website....

Returns aren't that bad these days. Most companies let you print shipping labels online that you affix to the original package and then you simply drop the package off.

The online clothing stores, like Frank and Oak, are pretty good about accurately representing their products online and keeping their sizing consistent across product lines. Once you figure your sizing out you can buy products with 90% confidence that they will fit.

[counterfactual]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

Well, said, CF, although a couple of your examples are IMHO a product of business practices rather than shopping trends. i.e.:
-Future shop is a direct result of Best Buy purchasing Future Shop and thus wanting to reduce the number of redundant outlets. I'm not aware that Best Buy is in trouble, although you mention them as well. Admittedly, I don't have time to read your supplied links at the moment, but I'll try to get to them later.
- Target Canada is clearly a case of poor planning and terrible business practices - a comedy of errors IMHO. There's lots of info out there on that one. Again, I wasn't aware that Target USA was in trouble as well, but maybe that is because of Target Canada?
- Rona, I think, is a case of the weakest link in a saturated market of big box home improvement stores, though their recent purchase by Lowe's indicates that there is some value in the brand (plus I'm sure they were a great deal due to our horrific dollar exchange).
- I've never looked at Radio Shack as a big box store, although perhaps they are in the US? The Canadian outlets that I remember (and later, The Source) were all just small stores in a plaza or mall.
- Walmart dying out would be poetic justice, IMHO, bring it on...

I do question whether online purchasing will take over as the best option, though. It's great for purchases that you don't need right now but still not as convenient as just going to the store and picking it up, at least for me. Plus, it's a pain if it has to be returned, etc. Buying clothing online has always perplexed me, as sizing varies even within brands. I always have to go to the store and try it on as "my size" only seems to fit me half of the time. Not to mention that clothes often look much different in person than they do in a photoshopped picture of the clothing on some perfect model under perfect lighting conditions on some website....

Another thing to consider is that there will be generations after the millennials that may have different preferences again, and the cycle will continue. I don't think any of this will ever be a means to an end.

All fair points, Mark. And I think there will inevitably be certain big boxes that necessarily survive-- maybe something like IKEA, which offers big things that are ready made and often heavy or hard to deliver via traditional mail or smaller delivery methods, beyond trucks pulling up to your door.

But I think Walmart and Target are toast. And it's a great thing.

With Target Canada, I think they bought out Zellers and then realized all of the Zellers outlets were mostly located in dying malls and dying suburbs through out the country. And their U.S. sales were also slowing. So, it was a quick abort, but not quick enough. Check out a few of those articles. Target USA and Walmart sales are declining. They'll try to stem the tides by re-offering as urban format shops. Some big box may survive this way, turning into small box. Most won't.

[IanWatson]

Originally Posted by OliverD

Returns aren't that bad these days. Most companies let you print shipping labels online that you affix to the original package and then you simply drop the package off.

The online clothing stores, like Frank and Oak, are pretty good about accurately representing their products online and keeping their sizing consistent across product lines. Once you figure your sizing out you can buy products with 90% confidence that they will fit.

Yeah, I just returned something to Amazon for the first time this month. I could not believe how easy it was (way easier than going to a store). I just put it back in the box it was shipped in, printed off the label they gave me, and dropped it off at the post office a few blocks from my house. For some things they don't even charge you postage. For the things they do charge it just comes out of your refund rather than you having to pay up-front, and it's way cheaper than if you paid the postage yourself.

I'm getting to the point where 75% of my non-clothing, non-food shopping is done online. The only time I feel the need to go to a store is if I'm working on a project right at that moment and I realize that I'm missing something I desperately need. Most of the time though I plan my projects ahead and just order whatever I need.

I think for me, clothing shopping will always be done in-store, but I also do that so infrequently that very little of my shopping will be bricks-and-mortar in the future.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by counterfactual

All fair points, Mark. And I think there will inevitably be certain big boxes that necessarily survive-- maybe something like IKEA, which offers big things that are ready made and often heavy or hard to deliver via traditional mail or smaller delivery methods, beyond trucks pulling up to your door.

But I think Walmart and Target are toast. And it's a great thing.

With Target Canada, I think they bought out Zellers and then realized all of the Zellers outlets were mostly located in dying malls and dying suburbs through out the country. And their U.S. sales were also slowing. So, it was a quick abort, but not quick enough. Check out a few of those articles. Target USA and Walmart sales are declining. They'll try to stem the tides by re-offering as urban format shops. Some big box may survive this way, turning into small box. Most won't.

The bolded is a pretty bold statement (no pun intended). Just because sales are declining doesn't mean they are toast. At this point the market for these types of stores is likely saturated. But that doesn't mean that Walmart and Target can't make changes to remain relevant.

And at this point big box stores are hardly in peril. Let's not pretend that urbanization is happening at a pace so rapid that sprawl will be good and gone in a decade. Walmart and Target will be around for the foreseeable future.

[counterfactual]

Originally Posted by OliverD

The bolded is a pretty bold statement (no pun intended). Just because sales are declining doesn't mean they are toast. At this point the market for these types of stores is likely saturated. But that doesn't mean that Walmart and Target can't make changes to remain relevant.

And at this point big box stores are hardly in peril. Let's not pretend that urbanization is happening at a pace so rapid that sprawl will be good and gone in a decade. Walmart and Target will be around for the foreseeable future.

133 stores shuttered over night. In Canada

133. That's not a sign of a healthy company.

I should qualify my statement: Target and Walmart, in their current form as primarily big box retailers, are toast.

They may very well survive in some other form -- a combo of small box, urban format, online offerings, etc, with the rare big box here and there. But as primarily big box, they're toast.

But you seem to be suggesting big box in their current form survives, just because of saturation. I think that's wrong.

How Target’s epic failure in Canada could spell future trouble for the retailer
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-the-retailer/

Target know they're in trouble. That's why they're testing a range of new formats --

Target has been testing a new concept it calls Target Express, a small-format store that would allow it to gain deeper penetration into urban neighborhoods. It also has begun launching CityTarget stores, which are smaller than its big-box outposts but not quite as small as Target Express. The retailer is set to open CityTargets in Brooklyn and Boston in 2015. It just became much more crucial for Target to get these formats right, as they are now the best bet for the company to grow in the near future.

As I said, Target may survive by turning itself into non-big box.

In which case, I'm still right about the dim future for big box. But I think these changes will only delay the inevitable, because people who prefer buy-local or small biz in urban settings will prefer those over Walmart or Target.

Wal-Mart is no longer the popular retailer it once was and beneath the surface it's starting to show the same cracks that brought Kmart and Sears to their knees.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...-our-eyes.aspx

Again, I don't think this happens over night. This is a gradual decline. But in the long run, as I said, the writing is on the wall.

[Keith P.]

Target Canada was an absolute case study of mismanagement. But Target USA is suffering from a different set of problems, with loss of customer trust due to some significant security breaches, and the resultant talent turnover in the executive suite.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by counterfactual

133 stores shuttered over night. In Canada

133. That's not a sign of a healthy company.

It was incredibly mismanaged. There was a very good article on the debacle in Canadian Business about all the mistakes they made. It was a management problem, not a market problem.

I should qualify my statement: Target and Walmart, in their current form as primarily big box retailers, are toast.

They may very well survive in some other form -- a combo of small box, urban format, online offerings, etc, with the rare big box here and there. But as primarily big box, they're toast.

But you seem to be suggesting big box in their current form survives, just because of saturation. I think that's wrong.

As I said, Target may survive by turning itself into non-big box.

In which case, I'm still right about the dim future for big box. But I think these changes will only delay the inevitable, because people who prefer buy-local or small biz in urban settings will prefer those over Walmart or Target.

I learned a premise back in the '70s that has always held true, no more then than today: "the wheel of retailing". All retailers must continually adapt, or die. That does not mean "Walmart is toast". What a foolhardy statement.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...-our-eyes.aspx

Again, I don't think this happens over night. This is a gradual decline. But in the long run, as I said, the writing is on the wall.

I don't think Williams-Sonoma poaches many Walmart customers.

[beyeas]

I tend to think of statements like "retail is dead" with the same scepticism as when I hear "Quebec Separatism is dead", and for similar reasons.

In Quebec, I hear the argument that it is older people who are more likely to be separatist, and the younger generation and more pluralist etc, ergo separatism will eventually fade out. However, there is lots of evidence out there that those same people who once were young and more "open" become on average more conservative as they age.

Similarly with shopping trends... there is no doubt that online shopping and big box outlets have changed retail, especially in younger people who are quite comfortable with online experiences. This clearly means that retail must adapt, but it doesn't mean it will definitively die. Many older people are much much less comfortable with things like online purchases. They often want to be able to see something before they buy it, don't want to have to walk in the cold to go from shop to shop, etc. Much like separatism, I don't expect that behaviours in a younger generation will remain static as those people age, leading to an eventual death of conventional retail. Instead, it will mean that conventional retail shares the market and is competition with other buying behaviours, and will therefore have to adapt and diversify, but it doesn't mean that it is dead.

[counterfactual]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

I learned a premise back in the '70s that has always held true, no more then than today: "the wheel of retailing". All retailers must continually adapt, or die. That does not mean "Walmart is toast". What a foolhardy statement.

Tell you what, Keith. When Walmart enters insolvency re-structuring, you can buy me a beer. I won't even harangue you for being wrong.... the entire time I'm drinking it.

[connect2source]

Wow! This is worse 'thread-drift' than most of the Vancouver ones I post on!

HSC > downtown revistalisation > Scotia Square > IKEA > student issues with IKEA location > summary of power centres > demise of big box stores > walmart bankruptcy

[someone123]

Originally Posted by beyeas

Similarly with shopping trends... there is no doubt that online shopping and big box outlets have changed retail, especially in younger people who are quite comfortable with online experiences. This clearly means that retail must adapt, but it doesn't mean it will definitively die. Many older people are much much less comfortable with things like online purchases. They often want to be able to see something before they buy it, don't want to have to walk in the cold to go from shop to shop, etc. Much like separatism, I don't expect that behaviours in a younger generation will remain static as those people age, leading to an eventual death of conventional retail. Instead, it will mean that conventional retail shares the market and is competition with other buying behaviours, and will therefore have to adapt and diversify, but it doesn't mean that it is dead.

We are just seeing the beginning of the changes in retail though; we're still in the middle of a big transition, and who knows how long it will go on for? Imagine if drones could deliver items to your house within minutes essentially for free. Or what if you could get an accurate VR depiction of an object (maybe even with sensory feedback beyond just visual)? Or maybe you could hop into a self-driving car that propels you around the city at 100 km/h with no traffic and no need for parking?

In the long run I think these changes will swamp the generational stuff. Older people might be less inclined to try out the bleeding edge technology but eventually these things will become normal and won't vary based on age. I don't actually believe that young people today will become less inclined to shop online as they get older, but I do think there will be new forms of "shopping online" that they will be less likely to adopt.

I'm tempted to respond to the separatism stuff but I'm bad enough as it is for going off topic.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by counterfactual

Tell you what, Keith. When Walmart enters insolvency re-structuring, you can buy me a beer. I won't even harangue you for being wrong.... the entire time I'm drinking it.

Quoted without comment:

More Canadian Shoppers Turn to Walmart Amid Shaky Economy

[counterfactual]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

Quoted without comment:

More Canadian Shoppers Turn to Walmart Amid Shaky Economy

A blip in the long term trend.

Anyways, I'm part of the reason this thread is far off topic. I'll bury the Walmart hatchet here.

[ILoveHalifax]

Originally Posted by counterfactual

A blip in the long term trend.

Anyways, I'm part of the reason this thread is far off topic. I'll bury the Walmart hatchet here.

Off topic and off your r__k_r.
Walmart is not bankrupt and far from it and to even speculate such BS is beyond credibility

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by connect2source

Wow! This is worse 'thread-drift' than most of the Vancouver ones I post on!

HSC > downtown revistalisation > Scotia Square > IKEA > student issues with IKEA location > summary of power centres > demise of big box stores > walmart bankruptcy

Walmart is a tenant of the HSC "Annex" across the street, so it is completely relevant.

[lawsond]

Originally Posted by OliverD

Or is this a chicken and egg problem? If an IKEA is present, will students be more likely to purchase new furniture?

In the late 70s and 80s IKEA furniture was everywhere on campuses. I took the miserable Dartmouth tranist out to Wyse Rd and wrestled a couple of chairs....of course in compact boxes home on the bus. Students and IKEA have always gone hand in hand. It will be like the old days again.