Quote:
Originally Posted by Centropolis
the current cascading instability is going to put a clamp on natural increase even more than the recession.
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Exactly. The US had already reached an all-time low fertility rate 1.70 in 2019, from a 2.00 back in 2009. 2020 will probably see the US getting into below 1.7 or just 0.15 above the low-fertility textbook Germany. Economic downturn usually means less people starting families.
This will depress even further the number of births, anticipating the
negative natural growth in 15-20 years. I wouldn't be surprised if it happens
before 2030, something imaginable few years ago.
And the 2030's-2050's will be dramatic as it will be the decades baby-boomers will die at a rate of 4 million/year. Much above the 3.7 million births of today and those will be much lower in the future as the overall population ages.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zapatan
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Population forecasts are updated over time and that one is old news. Not even over-optimistic models will give you that number by 2100.