Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[lirette]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Minority governments IMO are ideal, the issue is when partisan Bologna gets in the way of actual progress. The fear that party-x will get credit for some genuine good choices so party-y kills the initiative is a real problem. Perhaps if it was understood that it was impossible (or nearly impossible) for a party to form majority it would create more real cooperation.

This part is what really makes politics exhausting these days. I'd really like to see more politicans from the opposing recognize that an idea or initiative was great and say "this is what I would build onto that idea" or "i'd continue doing that". It doesn't have to be that you always just take the opposite stance of the other party if its something that's good for all or the majority of citizens.

For example I fully support the tourism tax credit for vacationing in NB and I wouldn't mind seeing this be something thats ongoing (they already extended through winter). Its not that much money to spend and can really help some of these small businesses in a unique way. I see it as no different than the loyalty rewards programs so many businesses rely on now.

Growing tourism in NB in something I see as a huge opportunity in the coming years as travel opens back up. The Marketing has gotten better over the years but there is still a much higher ceiling here. The Fundy trail parkway connection being a great start. There is so many beautiful places to see in NB that even locals have never heard of.

[lirette]

In terms of a PR system

Countries like Sweden, Denmark, Italy, Norway, Netherlands, Belgium & Germany all have a PR based system. These are all countries with some of the highest living standards in the world. By in large these countries have higher voter turnout, more women in politics, lower income inequality and better policy on environment. I don't see any reason why Canada couldn't have a similar system to these countries.

[Marty_Mcfly]

I like the idea of minority governments where all parties work together to achieve goals and whatnot. I'm not sure if I've ever seen it work in practice though. I thought it'd be a godsend here in NL, but the governing Liberals just kept up with the same old shit they've always been doing. The balance of power is in the hands of the NDP who won't bring the government down because they both have no money or resources for an election, and possibly fear losing that third seat they have which they only won by 2 votes.

[L'homard]

I believe the northern territories have no provincial political parties and their government works via the "concensus" model of governance, sort of like a minority gov't whether there is a minority situation or not.
Someone will correct me if I'm mistaken or if this has changed over the years.

[JonHiseler]

Originally Posted by L'homard

I believe the northern territories have no provincial political parties and their government works via the "concensus" model of governance, sort of like a minority gov't whether there is a minority situation or not.
Someone will correct me if I'm mistaken or if this has changed over the years.

Yukon has a party system, Northwest Territories and Nunavut have the consensus model.

[Taeolas]

One thing I think would happen if we had ranked choice or some other voting method, is we would see the right side of the spectrum splinter a bit, similar to how the left is broken into multiple parties.

That would let one party be the Central-Right equivalent to the Liberal's Central-Left position. Currently the Tories seem to be pulling away from the centre because they have pulling from the further end of the party. If minor parties could take up some of that tension, the Tories could drift closer to the centre and be a better counterpoint to the Liberals in that respect.

Looking at the bigger picture; while I'd love to see us leave FPTP behind us federally, I doubt that will happen. And I doubt the bigger provinces would switch over soon either. It's up to us smaller provinces (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, or the Atlantic provinces; not BC, AB, ON or PQ) to do the jump first and prove it can work and it isn't the end of the world.

Hopefully we can look at what Maine is doing and learn/copy their good points. (Whichever "We" you want to consider)

[MonctonRad]

Minority governments only work if the smaller parties are willing to bring the government down over an issue of principle. There are lots of reasons why the minor party may not want to do this, especially if they are bankrupt and cannot afford an election (just look at the federal NDP regarding this - Jagmeet is holding his nose over JT's arrogance, incompetence and corruption).

Also, if there is a formal coalition, some minor party members might actually get cabinet posts, in which case they have been nearly fully co-opted by the larger party. They might not want to give up the perks of governance in order to force an election.

Finally, there is always a risk that the junior party in a minority government situation will end up being disproportionately punished by the electorate in the subsequent election for cozying up too much with the governing party.

I am not against minority governments, and I personally dislike the institutionalized two party system that exists in the US (this leads to tribalism), but at the same time I do not want institutionalized minority governance either. This has it's own set of problems including the fact that it will usually be the same cabal of like minded parties forming the government all the time, with the minor partner having disproportionately greater influence than it would otherwise have (most of the time). For example, in a minority government, you potentially could have a Green Party with 5 seats in the legislature having more influence over policy than a Conservative Party with 22 seats. Is this fair???

Majority governance should be the standard, with occasional minority governance thrown in for variety, and to occasionally give the lesser parties hope for some occasional influence over government policy.

[MonctonRad]

Although I am a strong supporter of the current FPTP system, I do wish that there was more freedom for individual MLAs to introduce private members bills, and that the party whips would lay off and allow more free votes in the legislature.

I think only traditional votes of confidence (like the provincial budget), certain vital pieces of government legislation, and private members bills that would have a significant budgetary implications should be whipped. All other votes should be free votes. Backbenchers should have more legislative authority and freedom.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Although I am a strong supporter of the current FPTP system, I do wish that there was more freedom for individual MLAs to introduce private members bills, and that the party whips would lay off and allow more free votes in the legislature.

I think only traditional votes of confidence (like the provincial budget), certain vital pieces of government legislation, and private members bills that would have a significant budgetary implications should be whipped. All other votes should be free votes. Backbenchers should have more legislative authority and freedom.

I agree. FPTP keeps people responsible for a community or two, and let's the same community toss them. Plus, it's very disingenuous to lose an election you contested under the same rules as your opponents, and claim if it was under different rules you'd win. You don't know that! You're transposing a result and what got you there.

Plus, we would probably have proportional by 'region', not as one province-wide list. Say, 5 regions of 10ish seats. Probably with a 'floor' to enter the legislature like our enlightened Euro pals. So no NDP.

It's democratically unhealthy for a party that can't convince one town or neighborhood to enter government, same as calling votes for losers 'not counted'. They were counted, they just didn't win. Not many Conservatives upset about the Scheer PV win and electoral loss.

Nebraska has a non-partisan legislature and all it's done is create a fat cowardly consensus where no one will risk their seat over bold votes.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Poll by poll results have already been released for the NB election:

http://www.election-atlas.ca/nb/

[Taeolas]

Looking at Freddy North, St Marys Reserve went decently green.

But it looks like Douglas Avenue and areas were what carried the riding, they went heavily PC, as did the west end of the riding. Makes sense I guess; the areas I saw a lot of Green signs up for did actually go green; but I wasn't in the other areas to get a feel for how they were tilting.


The polls for Fred-Grand Lake are interesting. Near the city, it looks like it's a 3-way race between PC/PA and Green. It's only when you get to the outskirts that PA starts winning more.

[JonHiseler]

Memramcook-Tantramar is as expected, Sackville area goes Green, while Memramcook goes Liberal. Interesting to see the eastern tip of that riding have the PCs lead.

[JHikka]

Using data from ElectionsNB for the 2020 election

# of electors, 2013 riding distribution -> 2020 election
New Brunswick: 552,183 -> 569,862

Northern: 90,700 -> 88,745
Miramichi: 33,415 -> 33,953
Southeast*: 159,605 -> 169,338
Southern: 122,176 -> 124,927
Capital: 90,320 -> 96,489
Upper RV: 55,944 -> 56,410

Change in electors, 2013 -> 2020
Northern -1,955
Miramichi +538
Southeast* +9,733
Southern +2,751
Capital +6,169
Upper RV +466

*Elections NB splits Gagetown-Petitcodiac between Southeast and Capital regions for the sake of riding allocation. I give all of G-P to Southeast in these numbers for the sake of simplicity.

So...the 2013 riding allocation had a riding quotient of 11,269, for which ridings could have a number of electors +/- 5% that quotient. Using the 2020 numbers, that quotient rises to 11,629. Thus, the riding allocations to each region will change for the next redistribution of ridings as follows.

Riding allocation, 2013 -> 2020
Northern 8.04 -> 7.63
Miramichi 2.97 -> 2.92
Southeast 13.67 -> 14.56
Southern 10.84 -> 10.74
Capital 8.50 -> 8.40
Upper RV 4.96 -> 4.85

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that the Southeast portion of NB (ie, the Moncton area) will get an added seat for the next redistribution of ridings, almost directly at the expense of Northern NB. I haven't done any poll-by-poll counting yet but both Shediac ridings are far above the presumed 5% riding quotient (17% and 12.5%, respectively), so I imagine a new riding goes there or there is some substantial shifting around. Moncton NW and Moncton SW also added a lot of electors, so a new riding may go in there as well.

Some other thoughts:

• With how the electors have shifted, presuming we hold onto 49 seats and a 5% deviancy in riding elector counts, it looks like Memramcook-Tantramar can remain effectively the exact same, with perhaps some poll absorbtion from Shediac-Beaubassin (say, adding Cap-Pele to M-T).
• Moncton Centre lost quite a few electors and will likely have to expand slightly to accommodate.
• The boundaries of Dieppe will likely stay as they are. Moncton East will have to shrink. Riverview may stay the same, but what's interesting is that Albert is above the 2020 quotient, so it will likely have to shed Salisbury and its western sections as Riverview continues to add more and more people into this riding. It's possible that Albert becomes something like Riverview-Hillsborough in the next redistribution.
• All of the Southern ridings can remain relatively unchanged. Lancaster may need to add some area as it lost 759 electors over the past seven years.
• I haven't been able to figure out how Saint Croix added nearly 800 electors between 2013 and 2020.
• After Shediac Bay-Dieppe, New Maryland-Sunbury is second for most electors in 2020, and thus is the second highest above 2020's riding quotient. I think Fredericton Junction & Tracy are removed from this riding in the future, so it's possible we simply get a New Maryland riding in the future.
• Fredericton South and North are both within quotient for 2020, with North being almost exactly at the quotient figure.
• Fredericton-York has seen a lot of growth so it may need to shed Stanley in the future. Depending on how things shake out in Northern NB, it's possible we see some Frankenstein riding made up of former Southwest Miramichi, stretching from Miramichi, through Blackville and Doaktown, to include Stanley. Or not.
• I'm not sure what the best course of action would be for the North to lose a riding. I think the easiest may be the merge the two Bathurst ridings to go back to a singular urban Bathurst riding, whereby you split off the west and east sections of Bathurst West-Beresford and Bathurst East-Nepisiguit to surrounding ridings. Those two are currently the two smallest ridings in terms of electors.
• Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou needs probably 500-750 electors added to it for the riding to last another decade cycle. If you move 750 electors from neighbouring Caraquet then suddenly that riding needs 1,000 electors to make quotient and presumed population shifting, and etc. etc.. It'll be difficult to sort all of that out.
• Another solution could be to lop off Kedgwick/St-Quentin from Restigouche West and all the entire western portion of that riding to the Madawaska/Victoria ridings. In this scenario you'd have to move Carleton-Victoria further south, presumably fixing some of the language-related problems that come with drawing that riding up.
• Or they just make a new map and all of this is moot!

Originally Posted by Taeolas

The polls for Fred-Grand Lake are interesting. Near the city, it looks like it's a 3-way race between PC/PA and Green. It's only when you get to the outskirts that PA starts winning more.

Similar to 2018, where Grand Lake and parts inbetween voted heavily PA, whereas suburban Fredericton took a bit of convincing and stuck PC & Lib. Now that area is more Green than Liberal.

Originally Posted by JonHiseler

Memramcook-Tantramar is as expected, Sackville area goes Green, while Memramcook goes Liberal. Interesting to see the eastern tip of that riding have the PCs lead.

If you squint hard enough you can see eastern sections of Shediac-Beaubassin becoming more and more Green, partly due to language demographics shifting in this area but also down to a continued Green presence in Memramcook-Tantramar. From Dupuis Corner eastward the Liberals only hit 50% in one poll, whereas they were easily hitting 60% in Shediac proper. In Cap-Pele the Greens got roughly 35% of the vote.

[adamuptownsj]

Added some percentages to the above.

552K->570K = 3.2% increase in electors.

Northern: 90,700 (16.5%) -> 88,745 (15.5%) 7.6 seats
Miramichi: 33,415 (6%) -> 33,953 (6%) 2.9 seats
Southeast*: 159,605 (29%) -> 169,338 (29.5%) 14.5 seats
Southern: 122,176 (22%) -> 124,927 (22%) 10.8 seats
Capital: 90,320 (16.5%) -> 96,489 (17%) 8.3 seats
Upper RV: 55,944 (10%) -> 56,410 (10%) 4.9 seats

Looks like one moving from North to Moncton, likely Restigouche West or functionally a Bathurst seat. So very little partisan change unless the map gets big changes.

[lirette]

A sad day for NB as Clinic554 has announced it will be closing, and with that another 3000 people are added to the wait list for a family doctor, which is approaching 40,000.

[Marty_Mcfly]

By-election day in Humber-Gros Morne. My easy predictions:

Dr. Andrew Furey (LIB): 66 %
Mike Goosney (PC): 25%
Graydon Pelley (NLA): 5%
Graham Downey-Sutton (NDP): 4%

Liberal hold

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

By-election day in Humber-Gros Morne. My easy predictions:

Dr. Andrew Furey (LIB): 66 %
Mike Goosney (PC): 25%
Graydon Pelley (NLA): 5%
Graham Downey-Sutton (NDP): 4%

Liberal hold

FINAL RESULTS

LIB: 64.0%
PC: 25.0%
NLA: 8.7%
NDP: 2.3%

My prediction was pretty dang close. NDP really underperformed here and they should be worried with a vote share like that. On the other hand, the NL Alliance should be happy with that result.

[MonctonRad]

Your new Premeir has been dealt a rough hand, what with the impending closure of the Come-by-Chance refinery. Hard to imaging that represents 5% of your provincial economy.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Your new Premeir has been dealt a rough hand, what with the impending closure of the Come-by-Chance refinery. Hard to imaging that represents 5% of your provincial economy.

A lot of spin-off from the refinery. A lot of construction work, contract work, plus the province-wide North Atlantic gas station chain. Some other bad hands dealt too...Husky laying people off, White Rose is up in the air right now.

Interesting that Erin O'Toole brought it up in the house last week. The Conservative Party of Canada's stance on Newfoundland since the 2008 election has to just forget about its existence. Looks like O'Toole may have eyed the district that Come By Chance is in as a possible target for the next election. Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, once considered the safest Liberal seat in the country, ended up being a lot closer than expected last election.....the 39.5% of the vote share that the CPC picked up was the largest in Atlantic Canada, excluding New Brunswick.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

The Conservative Party of Canada's stance on Newfoundland since the 2008 election has to just forget about its existence.

Surely this is due to Danny Williams.