City Murder Rates

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

Sounds like a bad year so far, right? What about the other cities?

Overall, no. At this rate we'll top out at 75 for the year, which is par for the course.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by tech12

Except...they're not. Even if you ignore assault, robbery, and rape rates, and are only referring to the murder rate, they still aren't the safest large cities in America, let alone by "a long shot". There are dozens of large cities in the US with lower murder rates than both.

These stats are from 2019, but things haven't changed that much:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_crime_rate

Take a look at where Boston and SF are on the list.

Plenty of cities on that list that aren't really big cities, but rather sprawling suburbs that happen to be large. I'm not impressed that Denton TX and Scottsdale AZ are safer than SF and Boston.

[Crawford]

Murders down 30.3% in April. Transit crime down 23%. Crime is plummeting.

https://www.amny.com/news/nyc-crime-...rt-april-2024/

[homebucket]

^ Same here.

First Quarter 2024 Trends: Crime Remains Down

The first quarter 2024 reductions in crime are broad-based. In comparison to the same time period in 2023:

Property Crime Reductions:
Car break-ins down 51%
Burglary down 17%
Motor vehicle theft down 10%
Arson down 10%
Larceny theft (non-car break-ins) down 18%

Violent Crime Reductions:
Homicide down 27%
Rape down 29%
Robbery down 18%
Assault down 8%
Gun violence down 38%

https://www.sf.gov/news/san-francisc...-public-safety

[mrnyc]

i wonder if a good part of this crime drop has to do with the drug abusers drugs of choice? these days its all depressants and you see people nodding out and acting like zombies in the worst areas. also, weed is basically legal now, even where it isnt yet. compare that to back in the crackhead era when they were crazy hyper, jumpy and twitchy. obviously there are opposite levels of violence between these drug trends. its more like brave new world with soma nowadays.

[lextown]

Louisville KY is at 64.

Lexington KY is at 4.

[ilcapo]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

i wonder if a good part of this crime drop has to do with the drug abusers drugs of choice? these days its all depressants and you see people nodding out and acting like zombies in the worst areas. also, weed is basically legal now, even where it isnt yet. compare that to back in the crackhead era when they were crazy hyper, jumpy and twitchy. obviously there are opposite levels of violence between these drug trends. its more like brave new world with soma nowadays.

Its an interesting observation but i cant find stats to back it up.

Ive always assumed that most murders by firearm (the vast majority in the US) are not commited by heavy-drug-users. (Both now and during the crack era).

The 30% or so that does not involve a gun shouldnt make a huge difference in the total.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

Ive always assumed that most murders by firearm (the vast majority) are not commited by heavy-drug-users. (Both now and during the crack era).

Yeah, drug sellers are like a million times more likely to shoot each other than drug users.

At least that's how it works here in gang-infested Chicago.

[mja]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Yeah, drug sellers are like a million times more likely to shoot each other than drug users.

At least that's how it works here in gang-infested Chicago.

I think a great many shootings in Philly aren't even that. It's a lot of young guys bumping into each other and getting pissed off about it. Like modern day code duello shit except it's perfectly acceptable to ambush your opponent, even encouraged.

[Steely Dan]

^ yeah, a lot of it is also simply a "stupid young men with guns" thing.

Sometimes they're beefing over turf.

And other times they're beefing over even pettier shit.

But as a general rule, it's not the drug-addled zombies doing most of the killing.

Never has been.

At least not in gang-infested Chicago.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by mja

I think a great many shootings in Philly aren't even that. It's a lot of young guys bumping into each other and getting pissed off about it. Like modern day code duello shit except it's perfectly acceptable to ambush your opponent, even encouraged.

Years back I heard a description of most inner-city murders as "rough justice" I think it tracks. In most cases, it's a young guy targeting another young guy, but not randomly, but because they think that the other dude (or someone in his crew) "wronged" them in the same way. Basically the same psychological motivation that used to motivate blood feuds, and later, dueling.

[mja]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Years back I heard a description of most inner-city murders as "rough justice" I think it tracks. In most cases, it's a young guy targeting another young guy, but not randomly, but because they think that the other dude (or someone in his crew) "wronged" them in the same way. Basically the same psychological motivation that used to motivate blood feuds, and later, dueling.

Yeah, Colin Woodard per his theory attributes it to the influence of the cultural values of the so-called Deep South nation, where defending your honor was and to some degree still is paramount. Insults that someone from "Yankeedom" would simply laugh off or ignore are intolerable to someone from the Deep South, and by extension to many in the African-American community, even those whose families migrated to northern cities. Not sure how sound that actually is, but his book American Nations is an interesting read nonetheless.

[photoLith]

The only murder I ever witnessed and had to go to court over, was due to one thug owing another thug only about 30 dollars for drugs and then killed him over that. Not too bright.

I had a gang of thugs living across the street from me last year and the year before. They were so easy to set off and turn violent. One day I was leaving my parking spot and had my hand in the window holding the coat hanger thing. When we came back a bunch of thugs were postering like morons and yelling at me, hey yo cracka, why you flick us off, you wanna fight!??!

I wasn't flicking these violent morons off but they thought I did and were ready to probably kill me over it. I just walked inside and ignored them. They expect other people to have a short fuse like them in order to further escalate the situation. They probably weren't used to someone just ignoring them.

One of them ended up getting shot (not sure over what) but now he's crippled forever at the age of 19. The other two are on probation (not jail of course, even though they should be locked up for good) for breaking into a house with firearms. Will most likely end up in jail for a long time and or crippled / dead. Pretty smart life choices to make.

So incredibly glad they got evicted. It was hell having them across the street.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by mja

I think a great many shootings in Philly aren't even that. It's a lot of young guys bumping into each other and getting pissed off about it. Like modern day code duello shit except it's perfectly acceptable to ambush your opponent, even encouraged.

A lot of it originates with women too.

Like a girl got insulted by some off hand comment from some dude in passing and she calls her brother to bitch about it then he goes out to find him and shoots him dead.

It sounds not real but at this point in time, I'd say this is 90% of murders. Trivial beefs. If we didn't have social media, cities would probably have murder rates close to 0 at this point.

[SIGSEGV]

This is interesting: https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/...lock-swtiches/

The implication is that murder rates would go down faster if not for the higher lethality from larger numbers of rounds

[mja]

66 shootings and 28 people dead over the course of 2 years, all started because of a diss on Instagram Live. So much of this (murders in American cities) is just a bunch of young hotheads being stupid and armed.

Bryant and White were affiliated with a street group from the intersection of 61st and Jefferson Streets in West Philadelphia, he said, and had gone to Simpson Street that day targeting members of the group 02da4. They were seeking retaliation, he said, for a recent fistfight or verbal dispute at a nearby park between members of the groups.

A feud between the crews had started about a month earlier, Palmer said, following a botched marijuana sale that led to one member of 02da4 dissing a dead 61st Street member over Instagram Live. Bryant and others in the group, according to Palmer, “said, ‘Well, once you dishonored the memory of our dead friend, it’s on.’”

https://www.inquirer.com/crime/sandr...-20240517.html

On a brighter note, Philly is down 38% from last year, 51% from the peak in 2021, and 21% from 2019.