DENVER | Transportation Thread

[mojiferous]

Why isn't Denver pursuing a plan like Nashville's? Firstly, the city IS studying how to deal with transit and just because they haven't released anything yet does not mean that nothing is happening. The politics aren't simple and it will be a hard sell to the voters, just like Nashville. Nashville's plan is still just a ballot measure, and for all we know their ambitious ideas will end up being a big nothingburger.

Unlike Nashville we have an existing rail transit system - convincing people to create one from scratch is much easier than convincing them that the current one is inadequate and needs to be expanded. You need to convince people in SW Denver that they should take on debt to build an expansion to a rail line that doesn't serve them and you need to convince people in Wash Park to build onto a system that is serving them adequately.

And then you need to measure how much you want to work with RTD - presumably you'll want them running the lines or at least to integrate with their services. They'd probably be open to the city funding expansion, but may have requirements or suggestions to where the lines go that may be totally different from where the city wants them. Ironing this out is easier if you're starting from scratch like Nashville. It could be months of discussion before you can even get to the point of asking the voters for funding.
For example - you want light rail down Speer? Is RTD ok with that? Where is it going to connect? Do existing lines need to be re-scheduled? What is the final route? Is the city footing the bill for all this research and planning? Is RTD? What happens if RTD says it can't connect to their lines and none of the stations have room nearby? Do you build a separate and disconnected line?
What happens if RTD doesn't want to play with your plan? What if they have plans of their own that they want to pursue taxpayer money for?

And then you need to package it and sell it to Denver voters - a billion dollars for a subway with no additional reasoning sells on this forum, but might not when put to voters. Will it ease congestion? Who does it serve? Once again, why should someone in Bear Valley or West Highland pay for a subway downtown? People on here talk about Denver needing a subway because it would be cool, not because we've discussed how it would fulfill any actual transportation need that couldn't be met by a different mode. All it would take to sink this would be a counter campaign (like the anti I-70 one) claiming that there is a cheaper/less polluting/more equal option. If you want to sell your subway, you need to spend some money coming up with counter arguments when some NIMBY says that a dedicated timed bus lane on 17th/18th will run almost as fast for 1/10th the cost.

Once you've done all these things then maybe you can come to the voters with your tax plan. Oh, and make sure the mayor and city council are on board. This probably wouldn't happen in a mayoral election year, so 2019 is out. The presidential election year of 2020 would probably be a good time to try (and this timing alone may explain why you aren't seeing this in front of the voters right now)

[mojiferous]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

$2.5 billion is just a hard number to get to. That's roughly $150 million per year in debt service.

By comparison, the City's current debt service is (total) ~$90 million. The City's total capital improvement fund is ~$34 million. Total sales and use tax revenues to the City are about $670 million per year. It's just a very big number for Denver. You're not talking an inconsequential tax increase.

If you did it with property taxes, the total general fund contribution from property taxes is $175 million. So by my back of the napkin, you'd need a roughly 8.5 mil increase, or about 11% on a total Denver property tax bill. Probably you blend that with a sales tax increase, but any way you cut it, it's real money.

Yeah, and seeing these numbers, it probably isn't happening...

[mhays]

Maybe RTD and the City could do a combined effort where the city pays operations cost and RTD pays capital costs. This could work very well with supplementary bus service. It's how my city restored and expanded service during the downturn.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by mhays

Maybe RTD and the City could do a combined effort where the city pays operations cost and RTD pays capital costs. This could work very well with supplementary bus service. It's how my city restored and expanded service during the downturn.

RTD has zero dollars for capital improvements beyond the choo-choo's. They're tapped out. Anything that Denver wants to do is going to have to come from city funding and whatever we can scrape together from the feds (which might not be that much).

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

These are also the same thing. The difference is that while Nashville's plan is city-focused, the tax would still be regional.

Actually no, I stated earlier that Davidson county (whose voters must approve) and Nashville are one and the same. It won't apply or be built outside of Nashville.

Originally Posted by bunt_q

$2.5 billion is just a hard number to get to. That's roughly $150 million per year in debt service.

If you did it with property taxes, the total general fund contribution from property taxes is $175 million. So by my back of the napkin, you'd need a roughly 8.5 mil increase, or about 11% on a total Denver property tax bill. Probably you blend that with a sales tax increase, but any way you cut it, it's real money.

Blending is what I had guessed. Another novel additive would be to tax people who park in the core area including at Mile High. Wouldn't want to discourage those attending cultural or sporting events but something like $2 per car would be easy.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Sheesh... I still don't get your point. If we're comparing Denver to Nashville then anything outside the boundaries of either is extraneous. Unless you're assuming that more people that live outside of Nashville spend money inside of Nashville as compared to Denver. Btw, Nashville metro area's reported population is 1.8 million while Denver metro is 2.8 million so that wouldn't seem likely.

I'm thinking about the competition between the different local municipalities in pursuit of sales tax dollars. It looks like Nashville, being a larger player in their metro, has more leverage in increasing sales tax rates versus Denver. And yes, I am assuming that both Denver and Nashville are net sales tax gainers due to being cultural and entertainment centers for both metros. But, I think that Denver's being the center doesn't carry as much weight as in Nashville. A sales tax increase of a .5% would have far more impact, negatively, and is thus a lot less attractive of a funding mechanism than in Nashville.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

Maybe RTD and the City could do a combined effort where the city pays operations cost and RTD pays capital costs. This could work very well with supplementary bus service. It's how my city restored and expanded service during the downturn.

My first choice would be a healthy metro-wide transportation plan that would provide Big $'s to RTD. Then any specific Denver buy-in would be much less.

Originally Posted by mojiferous

Where is it going to connect?

a billion dollars for a subway

I have it connecting at I-25 and Broadway.

RTD doesn't care what Denver chooses to do on it's own. They'd be happy to cooperate although funding help from them is currently not available.

Nashville estimates almost a $billion for 1.8 miles of subway. I believe that between DUS and the Civic Center would be about 1 mile so closer to say $600 million in costs.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

I'm thinking about the competition between the different local municipalities in pursuit of sales tax dollars. It looks like Nashville, being a larger player in their metro, has more leverage in increasing sales tax rates versus Denver. And yes, I am assuming that both Denver and Nashville are net sales tax gainers due to being cultural and entertainment centers for both metros. But, I think that Denver's being the center doesn't carry as much weight as in Nashville. A sales tax increase of a .5% would have far more impact, negatively, and is thus a lot less attractive of a funding mechanism than in Nashville.

Close enough except for the sales tax amounts. Since Nashville residents already pay 9.25% sales tax a half-cent increase takes them to 9.75%. A half-cent increase for Denver residents takes them to 8.15%. How is that a heavier lift than Nashville?

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

but any way you cut it, it's real money.

I just want to know when you're breaking ground? Any idea when the judge rules on the one remaining case about environmental crap.

mojiferous... I suspect partly what you're alluding to is the issue that Denver already pays into Fastracks which I'd acknowledge might give Denver voters pause.

I just decided to consider that if Nashville which is the same size as Denver could come up with $5.2 billion for transit within Nashville then maybe Denver could come up with $2.5 billion to fill in the holes that RTD wasn't able to address. I agree with Cirrus generally that urban lines are better than suburb to city lines that use public ROW. It doesn't lead me to believe that Fastracks was a bad idea however as I've already articulated. But Phoenix and Minneapolis are poster children for the benefits of an urban line. In other words, it's what's left undone within Denver that the city could take responsibility for and I'm including Denver Moves.

[ddvmke]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

My first choice would be a healthy metro-wide transportation plan that would provide Big $'s to RTD. Then any specific Denver buy-in would be much less.



I have it connecting at I-25 and Broadway.

RTD doesn't care what Denver chooses to do on it's own. They'd be happy to cooperate although funding help from them is currently not available.

Nashville estimates almost a $billion for 1.8 miles of subway. I believe that between DUS and the Civic Center would be about 1 mile so closer to say $600 million in costs.

Can you, or someone who's also discussed the DUS to CC tunnel, help me understand why that 1 mile segment would be our choice for underground construction in Denver rather than, say, a DUS and Cherry Creek connection via cut and cover on Speer?

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by ddvmke

Can you, or someone who's also discussed the DUS to CC tunnel, help me understand why that 1 mile segment would be our choice for underground construction in Denver rather than, say, a DUS and Cherry Creek connection via cut and cover on Speer?

I'll let the experts or those more familiar provide better explanations. I assume it's all about density - of riders and need. The distance to Cherry Creek would make the cost more than Denver could possibly justify either to voters or to the FTA in seeking matching grants I would guess. Besides, I like the idea fine of light rail for that distance.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by ddvmke

Can you, or someone who's also discussed the DUS to CC tunnel, help me understand why that 1 mile segment would be our choice for underground construction in Denver rather than, say, a DUS and Cherry Creek connection via cut and cover on Speer?

Ridership. Speer is a pimple on the ass of the ridership along the 16th St Mall, and that’s not including the lines that travel down 15th and 17th.

[CPVLIVE]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Ridership. Speer is a pimple on the ass of the ridership along the 16th St Mall, and that’s not including the lines that travel down 15th and 17th.

This - RTD also funnels all of its express routes in the morning and evening through either Civic Center or Union Station depending on where you're coming from. The Mall shuttle therefore also serves as a half-assed last mile solution and very probably a large impediment to many folks who work downtown from using transit. The vast majority I work with downtown won't go anywhere near the mall ride. No one wants to tack on another 20-25 minutes after their bus ride just to get to work. It's slow and unreliable - you can often walk faster.

[TakeFive]

CPVLIVE... and excellent points and anecdotal observation.

Waiting on the Nuggets 8:30 start I might as well start my next series

Dancing in the suburbs and fixing the first and last mile problem

FYI, no way would I want to be a transit planner. Too many puzzle pieces and moving parts for me to wrap my head around. I struggle enough just trying to understand one piece at a time.

What I do know is neighborhoods. Neighborhoods are where families and (potential) light rail riders live. It's more of a captive audience but when it comes to busing kids to school they don't stop at every door. They make a few predetermined neighborhood stops and off they go to the next neighborhood.

Rather than sitting on their thumbs and scratching their ass over what to do, cities need to assume some responsibility for making it easier and more convenient for would-be riders to get to a light rail station. This would also encourage more people to try the light rail system in the first place. Who knows how many potential riders would learn to enjoy riding light rail if they just had an easier way to get started? Lone Tree is doing it and so can other jurisdictions.

[The Dirt]

Here's another anecdotal observation. The Metro Ride is also an inadequate DUS to Civic Center connection. I would often make the walk from platform 1 at Union Station to work at 18th and Sherman in the same time it would take me to wait 5-8 minutes for the Metro Ride, take the 15 minute ride, then walk another 5 minutes. I figured that the exercise was worth it if it was going to take me the same amount of time. So, in my opinion there is no efficient way to get from one end of downtown to the other other than walking.

[TakeFive]

If you're curious about the growing lust for transit/mobility within Denver then take the (extra) time to read this piece by Andrew Kenney in Denverite; guy knows how to write a good article.

What will “the least pedestrian-friendly” part of Denver look like in 10 years?
February 1, 2018

[Liberty Wellsian]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

CPVLIVE... and excellent points and anecdotal observation.

Waiting on the Nuggets 8:30 start I might as well start my next series

Dancing in the suburbs and fixing the first and last mile problem

FYI, no way would I want to be a transit planner. Too many puzzle pieces and moving parts for me to wrap my head around. I struggle enough just trying to understand one piece at a time.

What I do know is neighborhoods. Neighborhoods are where families and (potential) light rail riders live. It's more of a captive audience but when it comes to busing kids to school they don't stop at every door. They make a few predetermined neighborhood stops and off they go to the next neighborhood.

Rather than sitting on their thumbs and scratching their ass over what to do, cities need to assume some responsibility for making it easier and more convenient for would-be riders to get to a light rail station. This would also encourage more people to try the light rail system in the first place. Who knows how many potential riders would learn to enjoy riding light rail if they just had an easier way to get started? Lone Tree is doing it and so can other jurisdictions.

Uhhh kids have to ride the bus. It sucks... but they don't have a choice. The analogy doesn't really apply to adults with freedom of choice. Yes you sort of acknowledge that but you also kind of dismissed it.

Transit starts with density that means zoning. I think you have to have a minimum number of people/ block. You have to increase the amount of discretionary income(by increasing density) in order to support businesses that will create neighborhood centers. I really don't think that you can put a Transit bandaid on the suburbs and hope for anything more than very mediocre results. Of course you can have "American dream" neighborhoods but they need to be rethought a bit.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Who knows how many potential riders would learn to enjoy riding light rail if they just had an easier way to get started? Lone Tree is doing it and so can other jurisdictions.

What is Lone Tree doing that is so novel? I guess the Lone Tree Link is what you're referring to, but how is that ultimately any different than the Mall Shuttle? I suppose that it follows a route but only stops when requested is a difference.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by CPVLIVE

This - RTD also funnels all of its express routes in the morning and evening through either Civic Center or Union Station depending on where you're coming from. The Mall shuttle therefore also serves as a half-assed last mile solution and very probably a large impediment to many folks who work downtown from using transit. The vast majority I work with downtown won't go anywhere near the mall ride. No one wants to tack on another 20-25 minutes after their bus ride just to get to work. It's slow and unreliable - you can often walk faster.

So what's the last-mile solution? Before the Mall Shuttle downtown streets were apparently clogged by all of the busses running through and making multiple stops. Can we solve this issue by implementing transit-only lanes along a couple of downtown streets and funneling the MetroRide and the local routes on them, or is a bus tunnel the needed solution?

Seems like DenverMoves Downtown should be completed BEFORE we spend ~$100M reconfiguring the Mall.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Liberty Wellsian

Transit starts with density that means zoning. I think you have to have a minimum number of people/ block.

/sigh - Yes, thank you; I am familiar with the textbook principles for good transit. Denver's Fastracks system is a different vision - sort of. TOD will come over decades; it's not what is ideal today. There are other ideas out there as well.

How transit affects job seekers: The first and last mile to the station make all the difference
AUGUST 30, 2017 BY Ian Chaffee - USC News

The researchers found that car commuters in low-income neighborhoods in San Diego have about 30 times greater job accessibility than those who take public transit. The way that public transit riders reach their nearest stop to home could make an important difference in the jobs available to them.

And this:

The different ways riders leave and arrive at the stops closest to home and workplaces — what researchers term “first- and last-mile access” — can close this gap, even more effectively than more traditional and costly public transit measures like increasing transit frequency by adding buses and drivers.

Those distances that bookend a commute are crucial, according to the study’s lead author, Marlon Boarnet, a professor of public policy and chair of the department of urban planning and spatial analysis at the USC Price School of Public Policy.

We human beans are resistant to change. All of us have daily routines and disrupting that can be unsettling. Who knows how many people could be converted to light rail riders except that it is sooooo much easier to just do what you've always done - drive to work. In other words there's a meaning to my madness.