Rapid Transit

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Berklon

It's sad that I can't say I'm surprised... in fact, I was pretty much expecting this to implode.

5.5B? Can we get some cost figures for LRT projects in other cities to compare?

Here's Calgary's Green Line (Financing costs are $640M, and net operating costs on opening day is $40M/year):

[SteelTown]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Now I'm fuming, they took 30 YEARS of capital cost to make the $5.5 billion figure. They are being completely dishonest.

NEW: Transportation minister confirms the government has taken 30 years of capital costs for the Hamilton LRT and compiled them into one $5.5-billion figure.
https://twitter.com/ColinDMello/stat...14345058689028

Really $5.5 billion over 30 years to keep Hamilton moving seems like a bargain to me.

[lachlanholmes]

The $3.6bn figure for capital and construction cost is, unfortunately, believable from my personal viewpoint.

The $5.5bn figure is utter silliness, though. It makes no sense to start out the calculation at a pure capital cost figure (which is what the $1bn was) and then midway through change it to capital + operating cost figure (which is what the $5.5bn is). As well, it makes no political sense. If the government had just used the $3.6bn figure as their justification, they'd have avoided the obvious attack that they inflated the cost through an accounting trick to justify the cancellation.

[King&James]

So $1B for any transportation project ..... I say avoid any east/west spend . Secure all day GO Train Service to downtown by building the needed infrastructure and build the full scale Confederation Station. Hopefully these can be all done in 2.5 years , and then the next provincial government can fund an LRT/BRT.

[LikeHamilton]

How come Mississauga longer LRT is only $1.5 billion?

[lachlanholmes]

Originally Posted by LikeHamilton

How come Mississauga longer LRT is only $1.5 billion?

I don't think that's still accurate. According to Infrastructure Ontario, the project is valued at $4.6 billion, and that cost is using the same DBFOM (design, build, finance, operate, and maintain) model that ours was using, and it includes the 30-year operating cost.

Some simple math shows that the $3.6 billion capital cost estimate is about 65.45% of the total $5.5 billion cost estimate in Hamilton. If we use the same percentage of 65.45% capital costs on the Hurontario LRT total of $4.6 billion, we get a total of just over $3 billion for construction cost, with the remaining $1.6 billion being the 30-year operating cost.

Cost per kilometer of the Hurontario LRT is about $167 million with my $3 billion estimate. Very close to the section 1 Calgary number. Cost per kilometer of the Hamilton LRT is about $250 million with the $3.6 billion figure. Higher than Calgary and Hurontario for sure, but certainly not unheard of. (And look at the section 2 Calgary number - $550 million per kilometer - yikes!)

Why the $600 million difference between the projects? Not sure, but a gap of $600 million is a lot less than a gap of $2.1 billion. ($3.6 billion to $1.5 billion)

Not a defense of the actions taken as I'm in strong favour of the LRT, but the numbers are the numbers, and the reality is that the project costs a lot more than originally expected. (And so does Mississauga's)

[J.OT13]

Ottawa's Stage 2 Confederation, capital cost only (vehicles and maintenance contract was awarded to Stage 1 partners), is $2.57B for 27 kilometers, 16 stations. Stations are not enclosed and the architectural grandness not quite as nice as Stage 1, but still fairly elaborate. Of those 16 station, 5 will have washrooms.

That's only $95.2 million per kilometer, fully grade separated and includes extensive tunneling (about 3 kilometers of new cut-and-cover tunnels).

The contract for the 38 Alstom Citadis (48 meters) is worth $300 million.

If we add the rolling stock, it comes down to $106.3 million per kilometer capital. Maintenance numbers are available somewhere, but hard to find.

https://www.alstom.com/press-release...ederation-line

[drpgq]

Originally Posted by King&James

So $1B for any transportation project ..... I say avoid any east/west spend . Secure all day GO Train Service to downtown by building the needed infrastructure and build the full scale Confederation Station. Hopefully these can be all done in 2.5 years , and then the next provincial government can fund an LRT/BRT.

Honestly I wished the province didn't spend any money upgrading GO and put it all towards LRT, it would be way more valuable economically for the city. Look at the people riding the routes where the LRT would run versus the number of people that get on at West Harbour. There's orders of magnitude of difference. If and when we get all day GO, how many people are going to get on a 1:30 pm train from West Harbour? One?

I hope Fred can get in touch with the feds and get a quick promise for a big sum and try and take back some control of the situation.

With regards to operating costs, how much would buses run over 30 years? I would like to see that number. That was supposed to be the big deal about LRT, high initial capital cost, but you need less train drivers than bus drivers (and less diesel or NG too).

[Dengler Avenue]

I hope Fred can get in touch with the feds and get a quick promise for a big sum and try and take back some control of the situation.

Would the feds by now have finished allocating funds for each and every project, or not? Either way, I’ve always wondered where and how the feds can pull out the money last-minute to finance this LRT.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m fumed too when ONPC seemingly did this out of petty political spite, but I also wanna know how asking feds works.

[oldcoote]

Originally Posted by TheRitsman

How many development plans for Hamilton get tabled because of this you peeps think? I think Connolly is toast, as is the development at Steel City Video.

Yup. And that doesn't count the truckloads of money that was waiting in the wings. No more cranes in the sky for sure.

[oldcoote]

Originally Posted by Berklon

It's sad that I can't say I'm surprised... in fact, I was pretty much expecting this to implode.

5.5B? Can we get some cost figures for LRT projects in other cities to compare?

Donna Skelly says the LRT is too big a burden for Hamilton taxpayers. Yeah, it's not like my property taxes aren't going up every f'n year as it is. And it's going to be going up by a bigger rate to make up for the RHVP clusterfuck - for some reason I have to pay or someone else's mistake and illegal/corrupt actions.

Just wait until we have to pay to replace all the aging downtown infrastructure.

[SteelTown]

http://www.metrolinx.com/en/greaterr...ilton-lrt.aspx

They've removed anything that mentions Hamilton's LRT on Metrolinx's website. Even Hamilton's Metrolinx LRT link is gone.

[markbarbera]

Originally Posted by accord1999

Here's Calgary's Green Line (Financing costs are $640M, and net operating costs on opening day is $40M/year):

Calgary's Green Line is a $4.5 bil project

[Hawrylyshyn]

I think a BRT will accomplish the same as LRT would have... plus it has the benefit of costing lost, being more flexible, reaching more of the city, and doesn't require tearing up large amounts of downtown to a point of businesses going under. On paper LRT looks good and gives the local politicians clout, but I genuinely think it's very unnecessary and excessive. Glad to see this announcement.

[J.OT13]

Here are the true estimates for the Hamilton LRT. Still seems a little high, but nowhere near as dramatic as the Ford puppets have suggested.


https://twitter.com/CBCQueensPark/st...91208267026432

Compared to Hurontario.

By contrast to the $5.5 billion price tag the Ford government now puts on the Hamilton LRT (14 km, 17 stops), the province recently awarded the contract to build the Hurontario LRT (18 km, 19 stops) and its budget seems to be $1.6 billion. #onpoli

https://twitter.com/CBCQueensPark/st...73224781701127

[SteelTown]

Show us the detailed numbers that led to the death of LRT, Hamilton councillor says

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamil...bers-1.5399262

A Hamilton city councillor is demanding the province release details of the numbers it used to cancel Hamilton's light-rail transit project — and she says she'll even go get them herself.

Maureen Wilson, Ward 1 (west end) councillor, told Transportation Minister Caroline Mulroney that she wants the report released by Friday.

"If need be," she said, "I will travel into your office to retrieve the report."
.......
Nrinder Nann of Ward 3 (central lower city), has called for an emergency meeting asking the province to recommit the money for LRT, and to ask the federal government for help.

"That $1.3 billion was committed for LRT, not for roads, not for buses, not for stadiums, not for anything else but a once in a generation, city-building project that Hamiltonians have, by and large, embraced," she said.

The last election, she said, was "largely seen as a referendum on LRT."

[SteelTown]

And later on this afternoon, Andrea Horwath will hold a media conference to demand the province release the detailed numbers it used to justify the cancellation of the LRT.

[LikeHamilton]

Originally Posted by HamiltonForward

I don't think that's still accurate. According to Infrastructure Ontario, the project is valued at $4.6 billion, and that cost is using the same DBFOM (design, build, finance, operate, and maintain) model that ours was using, and it includes the 30-year operating cost.

Some simple math shows that the $3.6 billion capital cost estimate is about 65.45% of the total $5.5 billion cost estimate in Hamilton. If we use the same percentage of 65.45% capital costs on the Hurontario LRT total of $4.6 billion, we get a total of just over $3 billion for construction cost, with the remaining $1.6 billion being the 30-year operating cost.

Cost per kilometer of the Hurontario LRT is about $167 million with my $3 billion estimate. Very close to the section 1 Calgary number. Cost per kilometer of the Hamilton LRT is about $250 million with the $3.6 billion figure. Higher than Calgary and Hurontario for sure, but certainly not unheard of. (And look at the section 2 Calgary number - $550 million per kilometer - yikes!)

Why the $600 million difference between the projects? Not sure, but a gap of $600 million is a lot less than a gap of $2.1 billion. ($3.6 billion to $1.5 billion)

Not a defense of the actions taken as I'm in strong favour of the LRT, but the numbers are the numbers, and the reality is that the project costs a lot more than originally expected. (And so does Mississauga's)

I really don't care about future costs. It seems the rage with governments. No matter what system you put in it will cost something to operate.

WHAT IS THE COST TO BUILD IT AND GET IT RUNNING! PERIOD!

The first part will always be the most expensive to build. It needs infrastructure like, maintenance and storage, the electrical system, service vehicles etc.

Future cost will be dependent on contracts, efficiency, upgrades etc. It should be built to be the most efficient we can and then expansion. I was hoping next year once demo and construction starts that the discussion could start on the next phase of the system. East expansion, west expansion, both, or to the airport or just to Rymal Road or Mohawk etc. We should be starting the discussion on what to do with the surplus buses and rearranging routes.

BRT downtown will not work! Remember it is the same people who just killed LRT lost their mind when we put in 2 km of bus lanes. I have talk to them. They have no idea what a BRT is and think it just buying a bunch of big buses and let them roam freely.

[Jon Dalton]

The province's inflated cost estimates are pure fiction but there are a couple ways to get the cost down. Eliminate the grade separation over the CP belt line (that's used like once a day?). Just have a level crossing and the LRT will have to stop for the CP trains but it won't matter at all. The trains that use it are short and very infrequent. And we probably don't really need a new LRT bridge into Westdale. There is so much excess space on the King Street bridge so they could reinforce it to handle LRT.

I don't understand how they can drag this on for 12 years but a new government in less than 3 years can't simply revive it using the existing plans. It seems to be when this happens, it has to start from the beginning. That was the case with Ottawa's LRT. And this isn't over, any competent government that gets elected in the future will be looking to improve transit. Hamilton's transit is worse than it was in the 1980's and it can't stay like this forever. LRT will absolutely be put back on the table it's just a question of when.

[SteelTown]

And now the province is refusing to release the data that they used to cancel the LRT. Sketchy! They are hiding something, most likely they fudged the numbers.

Any sane person would have say "LRT is over-budget, therefore I'm putting a freeze on everything until we figure something out". They did that a few months back, froze any more property purchase. But nope, instead they cancel it outright.