The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[goodgrowth]

Tesla is basically a luxury car company.

The problem is Elon Musk is a perfectionist so the vision isn't just an electric car anymore but also a fully loaded car with advanced self driving tech.

I don't see Tesla ever releasing a relatively affordable barebones electric car at this point.

They should start a completely separate car brand and release a cheap 300-400KM range barebones electric car without any of the fancy features.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by jawagord

In what world does a Tesla qualify as affordable? It’s models are considered luxury vehicles, I.E. not affordable by the greater driving public. Getting cheaper Tesla batteries to put it on par with a BMW or Lexus isn’t a tipping point. Mainstream cheap is getting a Tesla or equivalent on par with a Civic or Rav 4. Tesla, the best of the best, barely eked out a profit in Q1, Q2 and the rest of 2020 will be a bloodbath for them. The tipping point we’ve reached this year might be Tesla’s survival.

Tesla's lower end models already get competitive when you look over a 5-10 year cost of ownership. Maintenance is low on EVs, and resale is high on Teslas so far.

Tesla has 3 consecutive quarters of profit, and yes Q2 will probably be a loss due to COVID19. Every year is "the tipping point" for Tesla... yawn. They have a better cash position than ever, and are in the middle of building a 3rd car factory (Germany) and trying to site a 4th in the US.

I'd be more concerned about some of the other large manufacturers struggling after this, not Tesla.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

They've done well on the customer experience though. Drop ship, no haggle pricing and online buying. This is how car buying should be in the 21st century. And they did really well on planning their charging network. Instead of treating them like gas pumps they made deals to put them near shopping and eateries. They gave level 2 chargers at a reasonable cost to be hotels in exchange for preferential parking spots. There's the maintenance service where they pickup from home or work. All of this undoubtedly contributes to their high brand satisfaction. Other cars companies can certainly learn from this stuff.

The closed ecosystem has done more to help than harm (similar to Apple). I'm not even an Apple fan but I can respect the success and understand how it came about. Tesla is similar in many ways.

As for competing with existing car companies, they are killing it with no end in sight. They've doubled down on vertical integration so much that it's unclear anybody can even catch up at this point.

VW can make cars, but they've had how many id3 models sitting on a lot trying to get a software update?! Embarassing.

[MolsonExport]

I hate haggling when buying a new car, and so do most other people. Over the years, I have become quite adept at using brinkmanship tactics when I buy a new car, but I really hate the whole fucking stupid process.

I would love to see haggling over new cars consigned to the dustbin where it belongs. These salespeople bring little long-term value to a firm, and perhaps do quite a bit of harm.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/driv...-lost-art-but/

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I hate haggling when buying a new car, and so do most other people. Over the years, I have become quite adept at using brinkmanship tactics when I buy a new car, but I really hate the whole fucking stupid process.

I would love to see haggling over new cars consigned to the dustbin where it belongs. These salespeople bring little long-term value to a firm, and perhaps do quite a bit of harm.

The whole dealership model is an inefficient mess. They are a middleman between customers and manufacturers, and their incentives aren't aligned.

[Truenorth00]

"Let me talk to my manager."

If you're this much of a tool why are you selling me the car? Let's cut out the middle man and I'll talk to your manager myself.

I love the reckoning that is coming for rent-seeking occupations. Car sales to realtors.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

"Let me talk to my manager."

If you're this much of a tool why are you selling me the car? Let's cut out the middle man and I'll talk to your manager myself.

I love the reckoning that is coming for rent-seeking occupations. Car sales to realtors.

Perfectly captured by the Cohen Bros. in their brilliant film, Fargo
• Video Link

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I hate haggling when buying a new car, and so do most other people. Over the years, I have become quite adept at using brinkmanship tactics when I buy a new car, but I really hate the whole fucking stupid process.

I would love to see haggling over new cars consigned to the dustbin where it belongs. These salespeople bring little long-term value to a firm, and perhaps do quite a bit of harm.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/driv...-lost-art-but/

What I find going in for a new car is you have to be in the right mind set. be willing to sit there and be willing to get up and walk away. Plus I now let my wife haggle. We were 1 day away from picking a new car and we walked away. If you have the money though now is a good time to buy.

We were looking at a hybrid but can wait another year.

[Mikemike]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Perfectly captured by the Cohen Bros. in their brilliant film, Fargo
• Video Link

I’m the one person who hasn’t seen it.

Please tell me he’s the one they throw into the wood chipper.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Airboy

What I find going in for a new car is you have to be in the right mind set. be willing to sit there and be willing to get up and walk away. Plus I now let my wife haggle. We were 1 day away from picking a new car and we walked away. If you have the money though now is a good time to buy.

We were looking at a hybrid but can wait another year.

Even if you know exactly the model you want, the price to pay, and it's in stock, the whole transaction will still take the better part of a day.

I realize it's a big item, but JFC. Sell a used car and it's a quick transaction and 20 mins at vehicle registration/insurance.

[Truenorth00]

The real issue that legacy OEMs don't seem to grasp is how lifestyles are changing and how that will impact car buying. Especially as Boomers leave the workforce. Increased urbanization and WFH means not every family needs two cars. And if they own two cars, they can be very flexible on each one. In this case it'll be easy for a whole lot of millennial families to replace the family commuter car with a small EV. And within the next 5 years, somebody is going to offer a basic EV compact with 300 km of range for under CAD 25 000. There is no Corolla, Civic or Focus that can compete with that. At least among my younger 30 something colleagues this is exactly the thought process. They have the pickup for camping and hauling. And the EV for the commute. If folks are doing this when EVs cost $40k, the practice will take off if something like a discount version of the ID3 is offered.

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Tesla's lower end models already get competitive when you look over a 5-10 year cost of ownership. Maintenance is low on EVs, and resale is high on Teslas so far.

I'd be more concerned about some of the other large manufacturers struggling after this, not Tesla.

I'd like to believe you Warren but I know you're posts are full of platitudes and you don't really know what total cost of ownership is or how to compare a Tesla to an affordable mass-market car.

For example a $55,000 model S vs a $35,000 Subaru Legacy sedan, similar-sized cars but you need to include in addition to operating costs (fuel and maintenance), the insurance costs, and the cost of money for that extra $20,0000 you shelled out to be greenish. CIBC will give you a car loan at 4.999%, your 20 grand premium is costing you $1000 per year in cost of money.

Insurance costs for a Tesla are huge compare to an ICE, close to double the insurance cost on the Legacy, of course if you don't want collision on your new EV you could get the price down? You're already down $2500-$3000 per year in these 2 items, that's far more than the yearly maintenance and operating costs of my Subaru.

In 8 years your Tesla 3 will be worth be 43% (if it follows model S type depreciation) of $55,000 = $23,650 a loss of $31,350.

In 8 years the Legacy will be worth 30% value of $35,000 = $10,500 a loss of $24,500.

Tell me again where the savings are?

The average cost of car insurance for a Tesla is $4,352 (USD) per year, based on our research. However, the price of your policy will depend on the model and trim you choose, your location and driving history, and the amount of coverage you choose. Teslas are more expensive to insure than many luxury cars due to their high repair costs, which increases the cost of collision coverage.

Tesla's policy sold through State National charges an average of $2,965 (USD) for a 30-year-old male driving a 2019 Tesla model 3.


https://www.valuepenguin.com/tesla-car-insurance

https://usedfirst.com/cars/tesla/model-s/

https://usedfirst.com/cars/subaru/legacy/

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by jawagord

I'd like to believe you Warren but I know you're posts are full of platitudes and you don't really know what total cost of ownership is or how to compare a Tesla to an affordable mass-market car.

You are making this comparison, not me. Nobody is looking at a Model 3 vs. a Civic. But sure, let's play along.

Originally Posted by jawagord

Insurance costs for a Tesla are huge compare to an ICE, close to double the insurance cost on the Legacy, of course if you don't want collision on your new EV you could get the price down? You're already down $2500-$3000 per year in these 2 items, that's far more than the yearly maintenance and operating costs of my Subaru.

Wrong. I went from a 10 year old Toyota to a Tesla and it was about 10% higher. Rather laughable considering the values of the respective cars, but that's not really how insurance is priced.

Originally Posted by jawagord

Tell me again where the savings are?

You're cherry picking random expenses and time frames and claiming victory. You're going to have to show your math gord. Maintenance and fuel is where EVs make their money back.

I googled one for you, US of course, but the point still stands (they have much cheaper gas and typically more expensive electricity).

https://loupventures.com/tesla-model...-than-a-camry/

Anyway, I'm not trying to prove the Model 3 is cheaper than a Camry, only that it is very cost competitive with a similarly featured gas car, and that's with ~4 year old battery technology. The next generation will be cheaper if the industry hype is true.

[Hackslack]

I know that if I was in the market for a luxury vehicle, which I am most definitely not, I would definitely purchase a Tesla.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

I know that if I was in the market for a luxury vehicle, which I am most definitely not, I would definitely purchase a Tesla.

I would encourage anybody looking for a new car to at least test drive an EV. I'll never go back.

[Truenorth00]

Are there that many people cross-shopping a Civic and a Model 3? I would think the Model 3 steals share from the Lexus IS, BMW 3, Mercedes C and Audi A4. Same price class and lowered cost of operation.

The real mass market EV isn't really here yet. But it will be. The VW ID3 is getting closer to this. Dunno what Canadian prices will be, but in Europe it's €30k, compared to €45k for the Model 3. VW should be able to get these down to a price level where they are only a few thousand more than a Civic or Corolla in a few years. Even a 20% premium on a Civic or Corolla or Escort will sell hard. Even with just 300km of range. Perfect city car.

[goodgrowth]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Are there that many people cross-shopping a Civic and a Model 3? I would think the Model 3 steals share from the Lexus IS, BMW 3, Mercedes C and Audi A4. Same price class and lowered cost of operation.

The real mass market EV isn't really here yet. But it will be. The VW ID3 is getting closer to this. Dunno what Canadian prices will be, but in Europe it's €30k, compared to €45k for the Model 3. VW should be able to get these down to a price level where they are only a few thousand more than a Civic or Corolla in a few years. Even a 20% premium on a Civic or Corolla or Escort will sell hard. Even with just 300km of range. Perfect city car.

A bit optimistic imo. I still think we are 7-10 years away before we get the "Civic" of electric cars.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I would encourage anybody looking for a new car to at least test drive an EV. I'll never go back.

Absolutely... I have googled "affordable EV's" just inquiring, not that I am in the market for a new vehicle, and they are certainly out there, but still beyond my purchase price point... I am also one to not ever one to buy "new", so it'll still be a few years out before I actually get in the market for an EV... hopefully my vehicles last for some time still... Part of my consideration as well is the need for a vehicle just for around the city, to have an EV to use for daily commutes or errands makes most sense, but whenever we get out of the city for long haul drives we'd still have the ICE vehicle.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

A bit optimistic imo. I still think we are 7-10 years away before we get the "Civic" of electric cars.

Like I keep saying, people are terrible at understanding non-linear trends. The massive amount of battery investment virtually guarantees we see such a car inside of 5 years.

Now I'll caveat that by saying, it won't be same price as a Civic or Corolla, but something like 15-20% on the common trim levels of popular compacts and with ~300 km of range. Nobody is going to take this thing on roadtrips. But it becomes the perfect commuter/runabout car for every 2-vehicle family. Low maintenance and fuel costs will make up for the $3k premium over the typical Corolla.

And that is what these trends are about. As the tech improves and costs come down, more addressable markets are opened up. A decade ago if I told you that an electric car was going to steal so much entry luxury marketshare that every German and Japanese auto CEOs would get heartburn and sleepless nights, you'd have laughed so hard the beer would have come out of your nose. And yet here we are:



5 years from now, two car families won't be buying gasoline commuter cars. A decade from now most two car families will have one EV. The real gap will be dealing with those who have just one vehicle (and require a lot of capability) or live in apartments. It's going to be a long time till we figure out the infrastructure problems on multi-unit dwellings for existing buildings.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Absolutely... I have googled "affordable EV's" just inquiring, not that I am in the market for a new vehicle, and they are certainly out there, but still beyond my purchase price point... I am also one to not ever one to buy "new", so it'll still be a few years out before I actually get in the market for an EV... hopefully my vehicles last for some time still... Part of my consideration as well is the need for a vehicle just for around the city, to have an EV to use for daily commutes or errands makes most sense, but whenever we get out of the city for long haul drives we'd still have the ICE vehicle.

I'm waiting for a second hand Rivian R1T.