AUSTIN | Project Updates Thread Part II

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by paul78701

I'd add Waller Park Place to that list.

I wouldn't. Why?

#1 The Austonian is built (obviously)
#2 The Independent has financing and more than 95% reserved (30+% have turned into contracts). Plus, site preparation work has already commenced.



Waller is not financed, no hotel partner, pre-leasing activity has yet to commence on the rental office, retail and residential spaces, and no pre-sales activity has begun on the for sale condo component. Doesn't bode well...at least it does not look good for the project and the development team. Hey, it still might work...and I would be pleasantly surprised and welcome it.

Even though I love the design, 7th & Colorado is a concept at the moment (just like Waller at this stage). The Nelsen Partners' design is only be one of several in which UT will consider. I would be, however, interested in which development partner commissioned Nelsen's work/proposal AND what the other proposals may produce.

And if 7th & Colorado does come to fruition, it will probably not be delivered until 2020 or 2021 (as UT will have to move into their new tower prior to anything being done with this site).

[the Genral]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

We can only hope that something this magnificent would ever be built in this city. All the desire we've had pent up on this forum for something curved would FINALLY be satisfied.

Yeah, this would shut me up for sure, even if its not a 700 footer, it fits my definition of a signature tower. And I agree with drummer about building tall further north. I am looking forward to some better renderings and hope they don't Fairmont this one.

[drummer]

Ha, I like that Fairmont has now become a verb associated with awesome renderings and lame results...

[wwmiv]

We dont have any results yet!

[lzppjb]

Awesome! Hope it comes true.

[KevinFromTexas]

I don't know that it's landmark status (unless it is really tall) - or even iconic. It is good, don't get me wrong, but it reminds me a lot of the stuff in South Florida. This building would fit right in in Miami for example.

[wwmiv]

No, this would fit better in Atlanta. It's beautiful and tall, too.

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

No, this would fit better in Atlanta. It's beautiful and tall, too.

Yeah, I can see that. Especially in Buckhead.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

Yeah, I can see that. Especially in Buckhead.

Yep.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

And if 7th & Colorado does come to fruition, it will probably not be delivered until 2020 or 2021 (as UT will have to move into their new tower prior to anything being done with this site).

I agree with you, but here's the key difference:

You seem to think that's really all that far off, when it really isn't from a development perspective. It's about this far out, historically, in Austin, where we start getting this kind of information about developments (remember that discussion from a developer about Austin being a very "over announced" city for projects, this is the same thing). From there for about a year and a half we get a steadily more heavy drip of information until we get a concrete proposal. It takes 6 months to a year to get fully financed and then another 6 months to a year (there's often overlap between these last two things, esp. with smarter developers with stronger histories) to walk through the permitting process (this is a problem that needs to be solved, fwiw). And then a year to a year and a half or even two years of construction for a large project.

In total, if we assume the longer lengths for all these things for this project, that's 5 and a half years from now (summer 2021 delivery). At the minimum project delivery for a project of this scale (let's assume similar alternative proposals, since bids are often along the same lines since the principal - UT - likely has certain requests that this bid was made in consideration of) knowing where we are in the process (only at bids) only shortens the time frame by a year to 4 and a half years for a summer 2020 delivery. So I really think you hit the nail on the head here.

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

I agree with you, but here's the key difference:

You seem to think that's really all that far off, when it really isn't from a development perspective. It's about this far out, historically, in Austin, where we start getting this kind of information about developments (remember that discussion from a developer about Austin being a very "over announced" city for projects, this is the same thing). From there for about a year and a half we get a steadily more heavy drip of information until we get a concrete proposal. It takes 6 months to a year to get fully financed and then another 6 months to a year (there's often overlap between these last two things, esp. with smarter developers with stronger histories) to walk through the permitting process (this is a problem that needs to be solved, fwiw). And then a year to a year and a half or even two years of construction for a large project.

In total, if we assume the longer lengths for all these things for this project, that's 5 and a half years from now (summer 2021 delivery). At the minimum project delivery for a project of this scale (let's assume similar alternative proposals, since bids are often along the same lines since the principal - UT - likely has certain requests that this bid was made in consideration of) knowing where we are in the process (only at bids) only shortens the time frame by a year to 4 and a half years for a summer 2020 delivery. So I really think you hit the nail on the head here.

You also hit the nail on the head. These project are typically huge, complicated, expensive, etc, etc, endeavors. They take a lot of effort and time to put together. There is too much "Negative Nancy" syndrome around here it seems. So often someone on this forum calls a project dead or claims that it won't happen without any concrete knowledge of the process or what is going on. Or because it doesn't meet an arbitrary deadline that they have in their head. Or because it's not a part of this development cycle (whatever that really means). Or whatever other anecdotal thing that they deem important. I'm not aware of anybody on this forum who has managed such a project and has any real knowledge of what goes into them. So some of the things I see written here confounds me.

A project on this UT site is going to happen. Whether it's this building or not, nobody here has any idea. Waller Park Place is likely going to be built. ZaZa is likely going to be built. The Magellan building will likely be built. Etc. Hell, even the 416 Congress hotel has come back to life. Up until this point, I haven't seen anybody cite any *actual* sources or give any *concrete* evidence that these buildings won't be breaking ground.

Austin is one of, if not the most prosperous city in the country right now. It's not 2008 anymore either. These buildings are getting built. Some of them may change in scope before any holes are dug, but there are few of these projects being outright canceled.

Why so much negativity?

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by paul78701

You also hit the nail on the head. These project are typically huge, complicated, expensive, etc, etc, endeavors. They take a lot of effort and time to put together. There is too much "Negative Nancy" syndrome around here it seems. So often someone on this forum calls a project dead or claims that it won't happen without any concrete knowledge of the process or what is going on. Or because it doesn't meet an arbitrary deadline that they have in their head. Or because it's not a part of this development cycle (whatever that really means). Or whatever other anecdotal thing that they deem important. I'm not aware of anybody on this forum who has managed such a project and has any real knowledge of what goes into them. So some of the things I see written here confounds me.

A project on this UT site is going to happen. Whether it's this building or not, nobody here has any idea. Waller Park Place is likely going to be built. ZaZa is likely going to be built. The Magellan building will likely be built. Etc. Hell, even the 416 Congress hotel has come back to life. Up until this point, I haven't seen anybody cite any *actual* sources or give any *concrete* evidence that these buildings won't be breaking ground.

Austin is one of, if not the most prosperous city in the country right now. It's not 2008 anymore either. These buildings are getting built. Some of them may change in scope before any holes are dug, but there are few of these projects being outright canceled.

Why so much negativity?

Whether you like it or not, reality is what it is. And, yes, I believe there are several forumers who are in the know on this site (or at least highly educated in the large-scale commercial real estate development process). Obviously, by your comments, you are neither.

Additionally, I bet you also believed Tom Stacy's 6th & Brazos project was going to get built too, right? What about the 45-story Planetarium mixed-use project across from the Texas State History Museum? Just two simple examples...

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

Whether you like it or not, reality is what it is. And, yes, I believe there are several forumers who are in the know on this site (or at least highly educated in the large-scale commercial real estate development process). Obviously, by your comments, you are neither.

Additionally, I bet you also believed Tom Stacy's 6th & Brazos project was going to get built too, right? What about the 45-story Planetarium mixed-use project across from the Texas State History Museum? Just two simple examples...

I think I'd draw the line a bit: you are 100% right that some projects get canceled. I don't think this'll be one of those parcels that doesn't eventually see a development, given that it's UT rather than some small firm with big pipe dreams and a lack of history. If anything, that probably speaks bad about Waller Park Place of any of the current things in the pipeline. The only major company to ever stop a development here was Intel, but UT is never gonna be in the context that forced Intel to stop (a major economic decline hitting its sector in the private economy particularly hard, and the timing is only indicative of this).

The only other major announced concrete project since 2000 (my memory of developmental projects that failed doesn't extend past then, except for that one that failed in the late 80s I think that we posted about sometime in the last year) to not come to fruition in this city was the 21C Hotel and Residences. That's four total projects. Four. Even f*ing 7Rio finally got built after how many years of sitting on the drawing table? It's scaled back, but something got built there by the same development firm under the same name. That's crazy! So, for the most part, he's right: most projects most of the time whether they're quick or lag a bit come to fruition. Of the other current projects, I've always thought Waller was the least likely to ever get action. Zaza has a track record and I think they'll get it done. So does Magellan. I thought 416 had truly died, but now that it has come back I think it's pretty likely. Things don't just come back like that unless you're particularly serious about getting it finished.

And yes, you're right about there being multiple forumers with direct industry and/or academic knowledge of these things. I have both. Multiple others who frequent our sub forum have worked in the development or development related industries for years.

[Urbannizer]

Just created a thread for the 10 Tallest Projects U/C in Texas. Currently Austin has 3 projects listed, though that will change soon!

[ILUVSAT]

Out of curiosity, what is the percent chance if an announced project will be completed by the same developer on a particular site as the one who initially announced it?

[KevinFromTexas]

I will say one thing. Developers never announce that they're cancelling a project. They may say something that signals to some that that's exactly what is happening, but they'll never come out and say they're cancelling. The reason is of course they're always hoping for an investment partner to come along and infuse their project with money. That's why you see those long assumed dead projects coming back to life. Projects aren't cancelled - they're shelved or mothballed, and then eventually abandoned if the market changes. At that point one of the two things might happen. One: the developer regroups and plans something different to satisfy the market changes. In that case the project might not resemble the original one in design, maybe even in size since a hotel market might be stronger than an office market for example. Two: they sell the land.

Anyway, I've learned over the years to take each announcement with a grain of salt. I've been surprised by how much has been built, but I never wanted to get my hopes up on something only to be let down.

[drummer]

An announcement to cancel a project doesn't prove good for business in any case. They'd rather save face and move quickly onto the next thing.

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

Whether you like it or not, reality is what it is. And, yes, I believe there are several forumers who are in the know on this site (or at least highly educated in the large-scale commercial real estate development process). Obviously, by your comments, you are neither.

Whether I like it or not? Huh? What I like has nothing to do with anything.

Yes, reality is what it is. That's what I'm talking about. The reality is that most of these project are getting built. Very few of the negative comments I see seem to be couched in reality. The Fairmont is a perfect example of this. Adding another 1000 room hotel was a huge announcement, but it was met with so much negativity. Look at where it is now.

I never claimed to be knowledgeable. In the current environment, though, I'm giving most of these projects the benefit of the doubt. I also never claimed that there weren't any people on this forum who had no relevant experience. I just said that I have never seen anyone say that they have experience in these types of developments...not once. I'm betting that anyone on this site who would have such experience is likely not capriciously claiming that projects are dead.

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

Additionally, I bet you also believed Tom Stacy's 6th & Brazos project was going to get built too, right? What about the 45-story Planetarium mixed-use project across from the Texas State History Museum? Just two simple examples...

Please don't assume what I think. No, I didn't necessarily assume those projects would be built. But what I thought about those projects is irrelevant. As I said above, I'm talking about the here and now. The environment is *way* different now than when those project were announced. That is why I don't get the negativity.

[deerhoof]

I went by the Nelsen Partners office and asked for more information about the renderings. Mainly spoke with receptionist who was willing to share information. I asked if it was a concept rendering and whether it is happening or not. She replied that it is happening. I asked about a height and she started referring to floors (obviously i wanted feet) and some other person passed so the receptionist asked her and she responded she didn't know but it went back and forth many times on how tall it should be. I asked what type of building and she said it would be retail at bottom with office in middle and residential at top. I asked when it would start, she said she wasn't sure so she asked another worker who was passing and he was being vague, saying he didn't know for sure because there were still three and they haven't decided. I don't know exactly what he meant, but my impression is that UT has three developers that are interested in building it and they have yet to decide on who yet. Here are some better quality pictures of the renderings that I took while there.

[drummer]

I like this one, too. I hope it happens.