Quote:
Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture
Geothermal probably wont be that popular. research is showing it is causing earthquakes the same as fracking is showing that.
so if you are against fracking due to the geological impact, geothermal has the same impact.
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And the best locations for geothermal in BC are located nowhere near any of the major transmission lines, meaning that BC Hydro would have to string brand new high capacity transmission lines to the sites.
Also, geothermal has a very high upfront cost because of the costs to drill successful wells; there's a very real chance that the wells you drill will not be viable, meaning you have to drill more wells. Even then, if you are expecting a 50% success rate, you are looking at 11 possible sites across BC, with a total possible installed capacity of 634 MW.
This is equivalent to 6% of BC’s peak load and 8% of annual electricity demand, assuming a 90% annual capacity factor.
Again, that's a 50% success rate for well viability; it could actually be lower. That risk can be mitigated through extensive geological surveys and exploration wells, but that's an expensive prospect; exploration wells typically cost approximately $1M and many of these wells may be required. Confirmation wells typically cost $4 to $6M.
For comparison, a wind resource measurement campaign typically costs approximately $300,000; a fraction of the cost of drilling a single geothermal exploration well. The consequence is that up to 50% of the total development cost of a geothermal site must be incurred before the value of the resources is determined.
Also, good luck getting financing for geothermal; financing is typically not available until the risk of failure is relatively low. However, as noted, low levels of geothermal risk can only be achieved by reducing resource uncertainty, and this can only be achieved by drilling wells which require significant financing. It’s a bit of a Catch 22 situation here; no financing to do exploration to reduce risk, but you need to do significant amounts of prep work and exploration, but that costs a lot of money which you don't have.