COVID-19 Manitoba

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by trueviking

For me personally, I only care about Winnipeg’s numbers. The vast majority of this outbreak has been outside of the city, which says to me it is likely racing through Hutterite colonies. If it wasn’t that, it would be bizarre for Winnipeg to have less than 1/5 of Manitoba’s cases with 2/3 of its population.

Controlling rural outbreaks is important but we need to take what is happening in context. We can’t shut down the city again if the cases are not located there. If the numbers in Winnipeg begin climbing, that has very different connotations than isolated rural colonies. The response has to be more nuanced than just looking at province wide numbers. Where and how it is being transmitted matters.

It looks like you're going to get your wish - restrictions will start to be different for different parts of the province.

[Jammon]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

It looks like you're going to get your wish - restrictions will start to be different for different parts of the province.

I have a feeling we're moving towards mandatory masking which I would be ok with. I think it should become a requirement for being out in public.

Re: vaccine- I highly doubt that we are going to find a vaccine that is entirely 100% effective. This virus is already mutated and studies are starting to be done surrounding co-infection with influenza. It's not pretty.

I think the best we will come up with is a vaccine that targets certain strains- much like the influenza shots. They only cover the most prominent strains from the previous season. My concern is that it's not going to grant immunity as studies have already shown that just because you had the virus doesn't mean you can't contract it again. There seems to be limited immunity with COVID-19.

[optimusREIM]

Originally Posted by Jammon

I have a feeling we're moving towards mandatory masking which I would be ok with. I think it should become a requirement for being out in public.

Re: vaccine- I highly doubt that we are going to find a vaccine that is entirely 100% effective. This virus is already mutated and studies are starting to be done surrounding co-infection with influenza. It's not pretty.

I think the best we will come up with is a vaccine that targets certain strains- much like the influenza shots. They only cover the most prominent strains from the previous season. My concern is that it's not going to grant immunity as studies have already shown that just because you had the virus doesn't mean you can't contract it again. There seems to be limited immunity with COVID-19.

So given that any vaccine is unlikely to actually work well, what do you suggest? Indefinitely masking and cancelling society?

[Authentic_City]

^I think the take away from this is that we need to pursue other/multiple public health interventions besides just waiting/hoping for a vaccine to be developed. That could include developing better treatment options (e.g. antivirals) and better contact tracing. It could mean targeted closures or lockdowns where outbreaks occur. We need to think about developing a strategy for managing COVID that is similar to how we manage other widespread diseases like malaria where there is no fully effective vaccine, but many public health interventions can be used to minimize impact.

[esquire]

^ Manitoba seems to have a pretty good handle on things as they stand... with numbers as low as they are, contact tracing must be pretty effective given that we have enough resources to handle existing levels. Even with the recent uptick we're still in pretty decent shape. There is no runaway spreading the way it looked like there might be back in March. It should at least allow businesses to operate and children to go to school until an effective vaccine is launched and widely deployed. Bottom line, we've been pretty lucky.

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by esquire

^ Manitoba seems to have a pretty good handle on things as they stand... with numbers as low as they are, contact tracing must be pretty effective given that we have enough resources to handle existing levels. Even with the recent uptick we're still in pretty decent shape. There is no runaway spreading the way it looked like there might be back in March. It should at least allow businesses to operate and children to go to school until an effective vaccine is launched and widely deployed. Bottom line, we've been pretty lucky.

There are just so many hutterite colonies, not a huge number to have to keep tabs on, in our neighbouring province to the west some of these colonies members were even refusing to get tested after having being in contact with infected individuals!

[Jammon]

[QUOTE=esquire;9002016]^ Manitoba seems to have a pretty good handle on things as they stand... with numbers as low as they are, contact tracing must be pretty effective given that we have enough resources to handle existing levels. Even with the recent uptick we're still in pretty decent shape. There is no runaway spreading the way it looked like there might be back in March. It should at least allow businesses to operate and children to go to school until an effective vaccine is launched and widely deployed. Bottom line, we've been pretty lucky.[/QUOTE

Yeah, because of our relative isolation from the other major centres. Let's be realistic- Winnipeg isn't a hotspot travel destination. Quebec and Ontario got hit hard because of their relationships with other hotspots- EU and US. There are many examples of community transmission in those provinces.

At some point, borders will reopen to the US and other parts of Canada. This virus is clearly not going away and we're going to have to find other ways to deal with it. I totally agree with Authentic City's post. The vaccine isn't the end all, be all. Even if we do find one, it will be years before the average person will be able to access the shot. I, too, have concerns that we have rushed a vaccine without knowing how it might affect the body in the future. We've seen many drugs be approved only to find out that they cause long term effects. Just look at Celebrex and Vioxx. They were the drugs of choice to treat Rheumatoid Arthritis until people started going into cardiac arrest from the drugs. They were subsequently pulled from the market.

[Danny D Oh]

Originally Posted by optimusREIM

So given that any vaccine is unlikely to actually work well, what do you suggest? Indefinitely masking and cancelling society?

That's kind of a concrete outlook on things....

Here's what happens with viruses:

-We learn more about them, how to slow the spread and treat the symptoms/illness.
-The virus mutates to be less lethal as ultimately it wishes to spread and killing humans quickly and violently does not allow it to spread. If it gets mutates into a more lethal form it will not spread and this crisis will be nominally over with maybe an outbreak here or there.

This is already happening in only a matter of months (not the more lethal part). We've only known about the existence of this virus in humans for about 7 months. Yes it might be a few years of disruption, but the point is to avoid what is happening in the United States or something at an even larger level.

But yes, a vaccine is unlikely to provide an easy out for dealing with a coronavirus.

[optimusREIM]

Originally Posted by Danny D Oh

That's kind of a concrete outlook on things....

Here's what happens with viruses:

-We learn more about them, how to slow the spread and treat the symptoms/illness.
-The virus mutates to be less lethal as ultimately it wishes to spread and killing humans quickly and violently does not allow it to spread. If it gets mutates into a more lethal form it will not spread and this crisis will be nominally over with maybe an outbreak here or there.

This is already happening in only a matter of months (not the more lethal part). We've only known about the existence of this virus in humans for about 7 months. Yes it might be a few years of disruption, but the point is to avoid what is happening in the United States or something at an even larger level.

But yes, a vaccine is unlikely to provide an easy out for dealing with a coronavirus.

Appreciate the confirmation.

[jmt18325]

30 new cases in Manitoba - 18 in Prairie Mountain Health. I'm expecting more restrictions any time.

[dmacc]

Wow, 30 cases on only 564 test

[dmacc]

In a meeting with executives and they are identifying that since people have started to WFH that our Finance, HR and other corporate areas have been "Through the Roof". We are looking to review how we manage this going forward. If we are having these discussions, I'm in a industry that is traditionally very conservative and moves at a snails pace.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by dmacc

In a meeting with executives and they are identifying that since people have started to WFH that our Finance, HR and other corporate areas have been "Through the Roof". We are looking to review how we manage this going forward. If we are having these discussions, I'm in a industry that is traditionally very conservative and moves at a snails pace.

"Through the roof" in terms of the number of people working from home?

If so that isn't surprising. Pretty well everyone I know who has a) kids and b) the option to work from home is doing so. Many people I know who don't have kids but can work from home are doing that as well.

That said, there are some weird variations among companies. I know some law and accounting firms in town where a lot of people are working from home as much as they can, but there are others where there is immense pressure to show up in the office with near daily tests being administered to staff.

[dmacc]

Originally Posted by esquire

"Through the roof" in terms of the number of people working from home?

If so that isn't surprising. Pretty well everyone I know who has a) kids and b) the option to work from home is doing so. Many people I know who don't have kids but can work from home are doing that as well.

That said, there are some weird variations among companies. I know some law and accounting firms in town where a lot of people are working from home as much as they can, but there are others where there is immense pressure to show up in the office with near daily tests being administered to staff.

Sorry, I meant to say they mentioned productivity was "Through the Roof".

[trueviking]

^ won't last.

edit...sorry. I misread. Finance guys. Those guys are weird, so you are probably right.

[dmacc]

Well TV, I think that may be your truth but I feel that may not necessarily be what the community at large is experiencing. I've noticed you've been largely against WFH as it sounds like it has had a negative impact on your personal quality of life. From the sounds of it, my work place/industry which has 15,000 people in the province WFH, we're able to do as much if not more. So much so that the executives are looking to implement some more permanent changes.

Even if productivity dips to closer to even to what it was before WFH, it still makes sense as they can look to shrink their office footprint. This may not be the same across the board but it sounds like the big 5 banks are doing the same thing as well as tech and the Crown corps. are looking at it too. These are all large industry's that support 10's of thousands of office employees.

[trueviking]

Yeah. It’s been four months. During a global crisis. Relationships, workflows and routines are already established. I firmly believe that companies who think they can download the cost of office space to their employee’s dining room tables will be sadly mistaken in the long run. That’s if you’re lucky enough to have a dining room table. 30% of people in Winnipeg live in an apartment.

Corporate culture. Professional development. Mentorship. Collaboration. New hire and intern training and growth. Interpersonal relationships. Even human contact and well-being. I don’t believe any of this happens as effectively sitting alone in your basement.

I’ve been designing office spaces for years to try and foster all of these things. Companies pay extra for it because that is how their business grows and advances. That idea hasn’t just suddenly gone away. I don’t believe that long term any professional will develop the same being alone, compared to in a collaborative environment. Companies that think saving the cost of office space is the key to their success will learn that people are the driving force behind prosperity.

It’s fine short term. Most professionals can relocate and get through it. But I firmly believe it’s not a long term solution. Some jobs, maybe. But I don’t think it’s sustainable for most. I can see more flexibility, maybe, but I don’t buy a seismic shift. Most professional jobs aren’t just about ‘productivity’...unless you’re a sausage maker or brick layer.

[optimusREIM]

Originally Posted by trueviking

Yeah. It’s been four months. During a global crisis. Relationships, workflows and routines are already established. I firmly believe that companies who think they can download the cost of office space to their employee’s dining room tables will be sadly mistaken in the long run. That’s if you’re lucky enough to have a dining room table. 30% of people in Winnipeg live in an apartment.

Corporate culture. Professional development. Mentorship. Collaboration. New hire and intern training and growth. Interpersonal relationships. Even human contact and well-being. I don’t believe any of this happens as effectively sitting alone in your basement.

I’ve been designing office spaces for years to try and foster all of these things. Companies pay extra for it because that is how their business grows and advances. That idea hasn’t just suddenly gone away. I don’t believe that long term any professional will develop the same being alone, compared to in a collaborative environment. Companies that think saving the cost of office space is the key to their success will learn that people are the driving force behind prosperity.

It’s fine short term. Most professionals can relocate and get through it. But I firmly believe it’s not a long term solution. Some jobs, maybe. But I don’t think it’s sustainable for most. I can see more flexibility, maybe, but I don’t buy a seismic shift. Most professional jobs aren’t just about ‘productivity’...unless you’re a sausage maker or brick layer.

Agree in full. Especially the bit about well being. Everyone's always rah rah mental health until we talk about work from home which for a huge amount of people will definitely have a negative impact.

[dmacc]

Originally Posted by trueviking

Corporate culture. Professional development. Mentorship. Collaboration. New hire and intern training and growth. Interpersonal relationships. Even human contact and well-being. I don’t believe any of this happens as effectively sitting alone in your basement.

Employers making big shifts to WFH can likely find ways to still foster positive corporate culture and promote professional development and mentorship in new ways.

You also talk about working from home as being banned from the office, this doesn't have to be the case. All we're likely talking about is WFH, and commute to the office as needed. New Hires and intern training may likely have to be done in the office full time for a period of time until they can WFH, though not everyone has to work from home, potentially just a percentage of people.

For you the human contact and well being are negatively impacted by being stuck at home, I for one have had more opportunity to spend time with my family and when my bubble opens more I will have more time to interact with friends.

Innovation can be found anywhere and a corporate environment is likely only stronger when it offers more options to its employee's to be successful.

Imagine your firm wanting to hire someone who is the best candidate but has a parent with dementia and at risk of wandering. That employee may not be as productive if they have to come to the office and worry about their parent wandering out in the winter without a coat and dying of hypothermia because no one knew he left. That same employee may be better suited to WFH.

In a world where distancing is required and going forward having options can only be positive. Being close minded to only one way of doing things may be a little regressive. This can be used to find a positive new normal, we don't have to just revert back to the same old way.

[dam_well]

I think "options" is the big keyword here. Some people will definitely do better in a WFH situation while others won't. I think there will definitely be an increase in WFH but I don't think it'll be a mass exodus from the office. It'll definitely be interesting to see where people end up when this is all over.

I for one have so much trouble staying productive at home.