5 Charts That Capture Miami Real Estate’s Slowdown

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

I'm looking at neighborhoods literally just across I-95 from Downtown Miami. The screen cap above is NW 41st Street at NW 10th Avenue, less than 3 miles from Downtown. Everywhere I looked is lowrise, single family homes or small apartment complexes.

Exactly, so a few blocks west, city of Miami ends which is why much of those miles of single family homes that you mentioned aren't counted in the population densities. Type in "City of Miami" in google maps for the borders.

FYI, That area is a no-go area of some of the worst hoods in South Florida.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

Exactly, so a few blocks west, city of Miami ends which is why much of those miles of single family homes that you mentioned aren't counted in the population densities. Type in "City of Miami" in google maps for the borders.

I'm guessing this is in Miami.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Houston has a crapload of in-town teardowns bc the existing vintage housing stock is generally really bad, with shotgun homes and the like.

That's true only in certain areas. In neighborhoods like Montrose, Heights and Rice Military among many others, it's sheer economics driving the replacement of one small house with three larger houses.

Here's an example in Rice Military:
• Video Link

Originally Posted by Crawford

Miami is generally much higher density than Houston, and I don't see much room to add tons of SFH in existing neighborhoods.

There's plenty of room to replace lower density with higher density SFH if they want. It just involves change and loss.

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

There's plenty of room to replace lower density with higher density SFH if they want. It just involves change and loss.

It's not that easy. Increasing zoning densities in areas of single family homes causes outrage in those areas. Low Income areas do not want gentrification and to be priced out . Medium & High Income areas do not want all the alleged "people, traffic, crime" even if some of those things aren't true or are for the greater good. Unfortunately, Zoning Departments tend to be reluctant to budge on increasing density with exceptions like former industrial or abandoned areas.

Even in Manhattan there are tons of NIMBYs.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

It's not that easy. Increasing zoning densities in areas of single family homes causes outrage in those areas. Low Income areas do not want gentrification and to be priced out . Medium & High Income areas do not want all the alleged "people, traffic, crime" even if some of those things aren't true or are for the greater good. Unfortunately, Zoning Departments tend to be reluctant to budge on increasing density with exceptions like former industrial or abandoned areas.

Even in Manhattan there are tons of NIMBYs.

I didn't say (or mean to imply) it would be easy. Just possible. And speaking of Manhattan, went I think of radical change resulting in what we see today, it's specifically Manhattan that I picture. I mean:

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

I didn't say (or mean to imply) it would be easy. Just possible. And speaking of Manhattan, went I think of radical change resulting in what we see today, it's specifically Manhattan that I picture. I mean:

I get it, and many of us want that. However, the reality today is more like this:

Independence Plaza neighbors gearing up to fight tower
https://tribecacitizen.com/2024/03/2...o-fight-tower/

These people live next to the World Trade Center!

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Long-term, South Florida has the worst housing crisis in the U.S., by far. The Bay Area still has room, but South Florida is completely hemmed in by the Everglades. There's no place to sprawl, and no, not everyone is gonna live in 30-floor condos in Aventura or Sunny Isles. Even the most apartment-oriented metros need relatively affordable SFH.

Are there any "affordable" SFH in NYC? Maybe in the Bronx or the outer reaches of Queens or Staten Island, but I remember that most folks in the city are either forced or desire to live in attached housing or apartments. Even the SFHs that exist in Flatbush and elsewhere are effectively duplexes or have a basement/accessory unit.

Just curious, but outside of CA, NYC would probably have the most expensive SFHs in the country.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by jd3189

Are there any "affordable" SFH in NYC? Maybe in the Bronx or the outer reaches of Queens or Staten Island, but I remember that most folks in the city are either forced or desire to live in attached housing or apartments. Even the SFHs that exist in Flatbush and elsewhere are effectively duplexes or have a basement/accessory unit.

Just curious, but outside of CA, NYC would probably have the most expensive SFHs in the country.

What do you mean by affordable? There are a lot of houses selling for between $500k and $1.5m in the outer boroughs. Basic 3 - 4 bedroom houses in the outer boroughs sell for about the same as basic 1 - 2 bedroom condos in Manhattan or the near-Manhattan areas of Brooklyn and Queens.

[Altoic]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

What do you do about the pesky NIMBYs that show up and complain at city/county meetings? There aren't a ton of YIMBYs to counteract them from what I've seen. This is the biggest hurdle for zoning changes here and pretty much everywhere in the USA. People go ballistic about "traffic, crime, shadows, etc." when mid-rises are built in my area.

I get what you mean. NIMBYs in MiMo tried to shoot down a 5 story office on a commercial corridor this week, lol...

Even though the Live Local Act was neutered and reduced some key components, it helped alleviate concerns while also allowing lowering parking in certain areas with more density. While cities can continue to drag their feet on allowing middle housing in most single-family neighborhoods, at least industrial and commercial zones will be slowly built out!

-Reduces parking requirements by 20% for mixed-income projects built half a mile away from transit hubs and near abundant parking.
-Clarifies that developers are usually entitled to the maximum base height a city allows within a mile radius of the project. If that project also fulfills a city's requirements for additional height, then those incentives must be granted without a public hearing.
-Limits height for projects flanked by single-family neighborhoods with 25 contiguous homes to three stories, or 150% of the height of the tallest adjacent building, whichever is taller.
-Forbids cities from restricting the floor area ratio of a proposed development below 150% of the highest density allowed.
-Grandfathers zoning rights developers obtain through the act.
-Bans short-term rentals from participating in the program.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Miami is generally much higher density than Houston, and I don't see much room to add tons of SFH in existing neighborhoods.

Houston has a crapload of in-town teardowns bc the existing vintage housing stock is generally really bad, with shotgun homes and the like. But the vast majority of new housing is on the exurban fringe, which doesn't exist in South FL. It's fully built out to the Everglades.

Yes and no. The tear-downs are in shitty areas where no one wants to live or redevelop but the vast majority of homes in desirable/ livable areas are decent housing stock with the most desired areas long since redeveloped or rehabbed. There are very few shotgun homes left, even in the 'hood but it is pretty bleak in some of these areas. Which drives down Houston's overall cost of living.

[Altoic]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Long-term, South Florida has the worst housing crisis in the U.S., by far. The Bay Area still has room, but South Florida is completely hemmed in by the Everglades. There's no place to sprawl, and no, not everyone is gonna live in 30-floor condos in Aventura or Sunny Isles. Even the most apartment-oriented metros need relatively affordable SFH.

South Miami-Dade has room but the developments aren't usually single family homes because the developers know land isn't abundant. Developments are usually town homes, compactly placed single family homes, or multifamily complexes.

Recently a 15 story tower was proposed on a plot of farm land.

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

What do you mean by affordable? There are a lot of houses selling for between $500k and $1.5m in the outer boroughs. Basic 3 - 4 bedroom houses in the outer boroughs sell for about the same as basic 1 - 2 bedroom condos in Manhattan or the near-Manhattan areas of Brooklyn and Queens.

By affordable, I suppose that most people would make the average weighted yearly salary would be able to pay off the monthly mortgage plus other-housing related expenses.

One of the good things about New York compared to Florida is the jobs pay higher up there. Maybe because of labor/ union protections and the amount of wealth and economic activity going on in the city and surrounding areas. Miami is growing but it seems like it’s still suffering from the fact that FL doesn’t have much labor protections. The wealthy folks there are often from the outside ( NE or Latin America) and bring their wealth there.

[badrunner]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

Maybe Miami could do what Houston did: Reduce their minimum lot size (5000sf to 1400sf in Houston's case), upgrade utility capacity then get out of the way.

Miami on Flickr

Houston on Flickr

That area in Miami is about 2/10 of a mile closer to Miami's downtown than the area in Houston is to its downtown.

I agree and I think it could look good in Miami. A tropical, colorful version of that would look kind of Latin American.