Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomguy34
I had a quick look at the ACS 2016 survey data, and it looks like the city's population is 2,704,965 people. That's only about 1,000 new people from last year, so we still have really overall growth. The last ACS survey showed that this is because of high central area growth and large population loss on the South Side. I recall the West Side's population loss is starting to level off, and the population for South Lakefront neighborhoods increasing a bit.
Marothisu, when should we expect your detailed analysis of the population change from a neighborhood level?
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First thing to note is that what you are seeing as a population of 2,704,965 is the 1 year ACS estimates which have been out for a few months. In reality, the 5 year estimates which were released just over 8 hours ago is 2,714,017. In the case of the ACS, I believe 1 year ACS is more accurate for larger populations because it represents a single point in time. The 5 year ACS is more of an average over 5 years of something. Unfortunately, the census tract level is only available at the 5 year ACS.
Second thing to note is that according to a presentation I saw, you aren't supposed to compare overlapping years of the 5 year ACS. The 2016 5 year ACS is 2012-2016, so you shouldn't compare 2011-2015 apparently - according to the Census themselves. You should only compare say 2007-2011 (2011 ACS) or 2006-2010 (2010) to 2012-2016 ACS. According to them too, and this is something I've said multiple times here, you should only compare ACS to ACS and you should only compare say the 1 year to the 1 year and 5 year to the 5 year. Also I understand that the 1 year ACS is better than the 5 year ACS at analyzing larger populations. A lot of people compare the 2010 decennial census to the ACS which according to the Census, you aren't supposed to do. A lot of media, publications, etc flat out still haven't done their homework on this.
They also don't adjust their estimates based on the actual Census. So if the 2010 ACS (population estimated as of January 1st, as I understand) states that the population of something is 50,000, but then the decennial Census says it's 60,000 - the next year ACS wouldn't update their info to take 60K as the population. It would just go on with the previous 50K estimate. In that sense, the 2010 estimate of the Loop was 19,993 people and the 2016 estimate was 35,010 people - a growth of 15,017 people. However, the 2010 Census stated the population was 29,283 - so is the actual population of the Loop now close to 45,000 people instead of 35,000 people?
So anyway, here are a few community areas and what I calculated as their 2016 populations. I think there will be some adjustment from areas like Logan Square and West Town because for example, there's a very small section of West Town within a tract that's mostly for Logan Square.
According to what I calculated.. Near West, Near South, Near North, and the Loop have grown by a combined 43,225 people since 2010 (versus the ACS, not versus the actual Census). At this time last year, I would have put this number at +39,444. It looks like the Census has updated their estimates so it's increased nearly 4000 people in the last year.
* Lakeview: 99,876 people | +2686 people compared to 2010 ACS
* Near North Side: 86,343 people | +10,124 people
* West Town: 84,458 people | +1877 people
* Logan Square: 74,606 people | -846 people
* West Ridge: 73,723 people | +1654 people
* Lincoln Park: 67,260 people | +2825 people
* Near West Side: 62,560 people | +12,772 people
* Rogers Park: 55,500 people | +494 people
* Edgewater: 55,430 people | -1175 people
* Irving Park: 55,417 people | +564 people
* Albany Park: 51,575 people | -101 people
* Lincoln Square: 41,483 people | +3066 people
* Avondale: 38,191 people | -1798 people
* Loop: 35,010 people | +15,017 people
* North Center: 34,942 people | +1548 people
* Lower West Side: 32,998 people | -2510 people
* Hyde Park: 26,573 people | +695 people
* Near South Side: 23,190 people | +5312 people