SAN FRANCISCO | Salesforce Transit Center

[dr_strangelove]

Originally Posted by SFView

^The current schedule has the Transbay Terminal opening in 2017 according to this:

http://transbaycenter.org/project/project-timeline

And the temporary terminal was *supposed* to open October 2009.

[fflint]

535 was felled by the larger credit crisis and not because of any specific local issue. The developer did--and still does--intend to build.

[BTinSF]

yes, and my prediction is he will do so before any dirt is turned on the Transbay Tower. But my point was and remains that the size of the tower is a lot of space in the SF market and will be especially dicy to fill if it has to compete with other projects, including 535, as it likely will. As of now we have already have 13 million square feet of empty office space (a vacancy rate of 17.7%--source = http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...77-in-san.html ). It will take years of rapid economic recovery to soak it all up (and raise the rents from the mid $30s/sq ft back toward the all-time peaks of close to $100 for trophy space).

I'll make another prediction: There will be a reconsideration of the plan to build it as all-office. That may have penciled out in the boom days of 2005 through 2007 and it would be the most profitable for Hines is they can fill it, but my bet is they ultimately take the safer route of putting a hotel or condos in it to cut down the amount of vacant office space to fill.

[northbay]

Originally Posted by BTinSF

I'll make another prediction: There will be a reconsideration of the plan to build it as all-office. That may have penciled out in the boom days of 2005 through 2007 and it would be the most profitable for Hines is they can fill it, but my bet is they ultimately take the safer route of putting a hotel or condos in it to cut down the amount of vacant office space to fill.

ill second that. i bet a hotel would do very well at this location.

[dr_strangelove]

Originally Posted by BTinSF

yes, and my prediction is he will do so before any dirt is turned on the Transbay Tower. But my point was and remains that the size of the tower is a lot of space in the SF market and will be especially dicy to fill if it has to compete with other projects, including 535, as it likely will. As of now we have already have 13 million square feet of empty office space (a vacancy rate of 17.7%--source = http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...77-in-san.html ). It will take years of rapid economic recovery to soak it all up (and raise the rents from the mid $30s/sq ft back toward the all-time peaks of close to $100 for trophy space).

I'll make another prediction: There will be a reconsideration of the plan to build it as all-office. That may have penciled out in the boom days of 2005 through 2007 and it would be the most profitable for Hines is they can fill it, but my bet is they ultimately take the safer route of putting a hotel or condos in it to cut down the amount of vacant office space to fill.

A 1000 foot condo/ apartment tower in one of the scarcest housing markets sitting on top of one of the most diverse transit junctions in the country sounds great to me, and would definitely make the area more interesting vs. a bunch of office workers.

[AndrewK]

Originally Posted by BTinSF

yes, and my prediction is he will do so before any dirt is turned on the Transbay Tower. But my point was and remains that the size of the tower is a lot of space in the SF market and will be especially dicy to fill if it has to compete with other projects, including 535, as it likely will. As of now we have already have 13 million square feet of empty office space (a vacancy rate of 17.7%--source = http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...77-in-san.html ). It will take years of rapid economic recovery to soak it all up (and raise the rents from the mid $30s/sq ft back toward the all-time peaks of close to $100 for trophy space).

I'll make another prediction: There will be a reconsideration of the plan to build it as all-office. That may have penciled out in the boom days of 2005 through 2007 and it would be the most profitable for Hines is they can fill it, but my bet is they ultimately take the safer route of putting a hotel or condos in it to cut down the amount of vacant office space to fill.

plus with the (theoretical) additions of 222 2nd and 350 mission.

[dr_strangelove]

Originally Posted by BTinSF

It will take years of rapid economic recovery to soak it all up (and raise the rents from the mid $30s/sq ft back toward the all-time peaks of close to $100 for trophy space).

Some properties are presently commanding such high rents: 101 California st is advertising 1185 sq. ft. for $120+ psf.
http://www.loopnet.com/xNet/MainSite...064&StepID=101

Also, average rents are actually slightly rising, due to large high profile tenants (the rich ba$tards) competing for limited space, and the class B or class A "vanilla" tenants are finding it renter's paradise due to excess vacancy.
Since Transbay Tower will be one of the most significant new buildings in the country, and the tallest on the west coast, I'm confident it would fill up with these high priced occupants.

One last thing, I find it intriguing that 101 California is 1.2 million sq. ft. of offices and Transbay Tower would be 1.5 million, a testament to just how thin it would actually be, structurally.

[brantw]

Are they building it? What's going on?

[BTinSF]

Originally Posted by brantw

Are they building it? What's going on?

The temporary terminal is built. They are supposed to start demolishing the old terminal this summer.

[1977]

Nighttime rendering of the terminal to be.

Source:http://www.sfnewdevelopments.com/blo...ds/20Night.jpg

[SFView]

See Transbay Transit Center interactive here:

http://transbaycenter.org/interactive

[peanut gallery]

^That is very cool! I love that they've also included all the Rincon Hill proposals as well, plus 535 Mission.

This isn't logical but of all the new stuff in those flybys, I find the Folsom St improvements the most difficult to believe. It's such a stark change from the Folsom of today I can't really imagine it happening. So I can't envision some basic street improvements, but a 1000 footer and other highrises rising like weeds? No problem! Ha!

[SD_Phil]

Originally Posted by SFView

See Transbay Transit Center interactive here:

http://transbaycenter.org/interactive

Very cool site.

This megaproject has been really exposing my impatience. I wish it had started as soon as the competition had been settled but it's always worth waiting for a quality project.

[BTinSF]

Originally Posted by SD_Phil

Very cool site.

This megaproject has been really exposing my impatience. I wish it had started as soon as the competition had been settled but it's always worth waiting for a quality project.

It WAS started. This is not empty land in some distant exurb. It is occupied by an existing terminal that is in use. Before anything could happen on the new terminal, a temporary replacement for the existing one had to be built so that could be demolished. That replacement is now complete and demolition is scheduled to begin soon (this summer). That will mark the beginning of construction of the new terminal (which, thanks to some changes of plan that occurred during the interval that was trying your patience and to some "stimulus", will now include the "train box" for CalTrain and CAHSR).

But we all need to keep in mind: The terminal and the tower are separate projects. The link is simply that sale of land for the tower is partially paying for the terminal. But the terminal is a governmental project while the tower itself is private, so it will not begin until the private developer who bought the development rights decides the time is economically right. And I can't imagine anyone thinking that now or anytime soon--UNLESS the project somehow morphs from being all office to at least partially residential, because we are starting to see some stirrings of new residential construction in San Francisco, but the office vacancy rates are still climbing.

[djvandrake]

Awesome interactive website. I can't wait to see this project really begin to move. The new terminal proposal is very impressive.

[dr_strangelove]

As seen on the banner of the temporarily terminal earlier today, it is schedule to open August 2010, 10 months behind schedule.

[nlosborne3795]

Will this be built? ... I'd like to know because I actually like San Fran

[Reminiscence]

So it seems that the Temporary Terminal, as it's being called, is set to open August 7th. This also happens to be the date in which we will bid farewell (or good riddance for some) to the old terminal. It's not out of this world news, but it's a milestone reached. Socketsite gives an ETA for the new terminal of 2017.

[peanut gallery]

Hey Rem! Long time, no see.

I'm curious as to how long after the closing they will start the demo process. That will be an interesting project all by itself.

[Reminiscence]

Hey p.g! Yes it's been quite a while since I've been here, I've been buried with work from classes

From what I've read, the way that the terminal has been built, it still has the old bus ramp on the corner of the property. After the terminal itself opens in August, the actual demolition of that ramp should be completed by November. After that, the terminal should be fully operational, so I'm guessing the current old terminal will be cleared for initial demolition. You're right though, it's something to look forward to!