Electric Buses

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

We do not have infinite electrical capacity. Increases in demand will result in higher prices for the consumer and this will likely rise exponentially.

I suggest you look up the amount of electrical power it takes to refine oil. That alone defrays a substantial amount of the added demand. The rest of it can be accommodated by demand shifting. Charge at night.

People who say, "we can't accommodate EVs" make me laugh. They consume about the same amount of power as an AC compressor for the average commuter and we adjusted the grid to accommodate everyone installing AC without much of an issue.

[Gat-Train]

Here's a video of trolleybuses that also can run on battery. We could put a catenary along the Baseline BRT ROW and have similar buses charge up on their route. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLn_wyj8whU

[OTownandDown]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I suggest you look up the amount of electrical power it takes to refine oil. That alone defrays a substantial amount of the added demand. The rest of it can be accommodated by demand shifting. Charge at night.

People who say, "we can't accommodate EVs" make me laugh. They consume about the same amount of power as an AC compressor for the average commuter and we adjusted the grid to accommodate everyone installing AC without much of an issue.

I also love the 'we need a lot of infrastructure' argument.

DO YOU NOT SEE GAS STATIONS LITERALLY EVERYWHERE???

What the hell would we do without all those gas stations, and their plumes of toxic pollutants infecting our ground water tables around the world.

Pipelines, oil refineries, oil-by-rail, ships, tanker trucks.. imagine none of those were needed, or at least, drastically fewer. I think you'd immediately notice a difference in our quality of life.

Even in Canada, if everyone had just 1 square metre of solar panels, along with a small battery in their garage, we'd more than offset any energy requirements for EV's plus we'd gain enough energy to be able to permanently switch off natural gas peakers, and maybe even abandon one of our nuclear plants.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by OTownandDown

I also love the 'we need a lot of infrastructure' argument.

DO YOU NOT SEE GAS STATIONS LITERALLY EVERYWHERE???

What the hell would we do without all those gas stations, and their plumes of toxic pollutants infecting our ground water tables around the world.

Pipelines, oil refineries, oil-by-rail, ships, tanker trucks.. imagine none of those were needed, or at least, drastically fewer. I think you'd immediately notice a difference in our quality of life.

Even in Canada, if everyone had just 1 square metre of solar panels, along with a small battery in their garage, we'd more than offset any energy requirements for EV's plus we'd gain enough energy to be able to permanently switch off natural gas peakers, and maybe even abandon one of our nuclear plants.

All these things cost more money. I don't have thousands extra to spend to install solar panels. All those things get put up with subsidies. We have all seen in the last ten years how expensive green energy is.

I don't know how we truly can move to widespread use of EVs with the high cost of green energy, the cost of installing charging stations everywhere and the emerging revolution against carbon taxes.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

All these things cost more money. I don't have thousands extra to spend to install solar panels. All those things get put up with subsidies. We have all seen in the last ten years how expensive green energy is.

I don't know where you get this idea that you need to spend extra thousands on solar panels. You won't have to spend a dime. There's a ton of extra capacity at night. That's when the vast majority will be charging their cars. And time of use pricing will direct major electricity consumption activity that way.

Overall, it's cheaper to use electricity as a transport fuel than gas (especially with carbon taxes adding 4-5 cents/litre every year going forward). So OPG will be happy to generate more and sell more electricity to you if you create the demand for it.

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I don't know how we truly can move to widespread use of EVs with the high cost of green energy, the cost of installing charging stations everywhere and the emerging revolution against carbon taxes.

I am sorry, but you are just ignorant on the cost of green energy. Read these.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-...tens-coal-gas/

https://www.lazard.com/perspective/l...-storage-2018/

Your viewpoint would be comparable to somebody saying in 2010 that smartphones are expensive because they were expensive in 2001. A lot has changed in the last decade.

The carbon tax may or may not be politically tenable. But that is all but irrelevant. The shift is happening because technology is heading that way. WRT electric vehicles....The costs are dropping. And fast. Most mainstream analysts predict that electric vehicles will hit parity with gas on lifecycle costs sometime in the early to middle of next decade.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...in-seven-years

And that's based on nearly two decades of a constant improvement in energy density providing the trendline. See Fig 2 in this article:

https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/fi...trics_r9_0.pdf

Note that $200/kwh pack price is considered the point at which electric cars start becoming competitive with gas cars. Look at the years in which it hits that metric. And based on that there's literally over a hundred plug in models coming online in the 2022 model year:

https://www.autonews.com/article/201...e-through-2022

It's not even controversial any more among most engineers to predict that the majority of car sales in the developed world could be some form of electric by the end of the next decade. Heck, most of the EU is moving to ban new gas/diesel sales outright between 2030-2040 depending on country:

https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/aut...ars/index.html

I get that this is about as hard to comprehend as computers for most Baby Boomers. And most people have a real tough time predicting non-linear change. If you told someone in 1995, that in 15 years, most people would could own a smartphone that was faster than their desktop, had a faster internet connection than their desktop, was touchscreen, more storage capacity and half to a third of the price, they'd probably laugh at you. This is exactly what it's like as an engineer discussing the state of green tech with people who are ignorant of where the tech is at the moment.

[Truenorth00]

On topic, the prices of packs are going down quick. And while cars are reaching parity in 2022-2025, buses are already there. Electric buses are cheaper to operate for most operators and dropping in price quick.

Nobody says they are 100% appropriate for Ottawa. But what would be valuable is to do a long term trial of our own. 3-4 years. Fleets of 10-20 buses each from 2-4 OEMs. This way OC Transpo can truly nail down over a long period of time how well BEBs do in Ottawa, what routes they are and are not optimized for, what the required specs are to operate successfully, etc.

OC Transpo can use all that experience and data to inform a bus fleet strategy for 2025 onwards. The lifecycle cost differences by then will be enormous. Not even considering electrics till then means that Ottawa is committing to operate diesels till at least 2040. That is not a sensible business strategy.

[Gat-Train]

It astonishes me that in 2019, none of the EA's for new BRT corridors have looked at the possibility of using electric buses on them.

[zzptichka]

Originally Posted by Gat-Train

Here's a video of trolleybuses that also can run on battery. We could put a catenary along the Baseline BRT ROW and have similar buses charge up on their route. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLn_wyj8whU

Good technology if you already have trolleybus infrastructure but probably not worth it to build from scratch.

[Gat-Train]

Originally Posted by zzptichka

Good technology if you already have trolleybus infrastructure but probably not worth it to build from scratch.

Why not? If we're going to spend hundreds of millions on new transit corridors, might as well put in some charging infrastructure for another couple million.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Gat-Train

Why not? If we're going to spend hundreds of millions on new transit corridors, might as well put in some charging infrastructure for another couple million.

That may have been the case years ago. But we're getting to the point where the additional capital is just not worthwhile.

[pveezy]

I think electric buses are something Ottawa will certainly be seeing in the near future, but I don’t see it as something that the city needs to rush to.

Ottawa is currently in the process of a massive investment in electric transit. They just happen to be trains. But the end result is still a pile of diesel bus trips being replaced with an electric vehicle. Lower emissions, cleaner transit, but with an EV that happens to run on rails instead of wheels.

It also isn’t happening without its own issues. We all know about the LRT hurdles. The plate is still full.

I don’t think now is the time to also make a gamble on electric buses. I think they are making the right move in ordering more proven diesel buses right now.

Meanwhile, let other cities like Toronto, Montreal, and Edmonton do their tests in a similar climate, with all the major manufacturers, different types of routes etc. Let them be the guinea pigs, have their failures and wins, then we will be ready to review their projects order the right buses for the right applications in Ottawa. It is not like the places currently testing electric buses have had them work out perfectly (even in moderate climates). I’ve read about some serious problems (particularly BYD).

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Nobody says they are 100% appropriate for Ottawa. But what would be valuable is to do a long term trial of our own. 3-4 years. Fleets of 10-20 buses each from 2-4 OEMs. This way OC Transpo can truly nail down over a long period of time how well BEBs do in Ottawa, what routes they are and are not optimized for, what the required specs are to operate successfully, etc.

OC Transpo can use all that experience and data to inform a bus fleet strategy for 2025 onwards. The lifecycle cost differences by then will be enormous. Not even considering electrics till then means that Ottawa is committing to operate diesels till at least 2040. That is not a sensible business strategy.

I agree that at some point OC Transpo should do its own study; however, as I have said before, Stage 2 will significantly change the way we use buses. so any study done before that will be obsolete before it is finished.

My suggestion is start the study in 2024, after Stage 2 east is complete. In the meantime, watch closely what other cities are learning and refine our study accordingly.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I don't know where you get this idea that you need to spend extra thousands on solar panels. You won't have to spend a dime. There's a ton of extra capacity at night. That's when the vast majority will be charging their cars. And time of use pricing will direct major electricity consumption activity that way.

Overall, it's cheaper to use electricity as a transport fuel than gas (especially with carbon taxes adding 4-5 cents/litre every year going forward). So OPG will be happy to generate more and sell more electricity to you if you create the demand for it.



I am sorry, but you are just ignorant on the cost of green energy. Read these.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-...tens-coal-gas/

https://www.lazard.com/perspective/l...-storage-2018/

Your viewpoint would be comparable to somebody saying in 2010 that smartphones are expensive because they were expensive in 2001. A lot has changed in the last decade.

The carbon tax may or may not be politically tenable. But that is all but irrelevant. The shift is happening because technology is heading that way. WRT electric vehicles....The costs are dropping. And fast. Most mainstream analysts predict that electric vehicles will hit parity with gas on lifecycle costs sometime in the early to middle of next decade.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...in-seven-years

And that's based on nearly two decades of a constant improvement in energy density providing the trendline. See Fig 2 in this article:

https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/fi...trics_r9_0.pdf

Note that $200/kwh pack price is considered the point at which electric cars start becoming competitive with gas cars. Look at the years in which it hits that metric. And based on that there's literally over a hundred plug in models coming online in the 2022 model year:

https://www.autonews.com/article/201...e-through-2022

It's not even controversial any more among most engineers to predict that the majority of car sales in the developed world could be some form of electric by the end of the next decade. Heck, most of the EU is moving to ban new gas/diesel sales outright between 2030-2040 depending on country:

https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/aut...ars/index.html

I get that this is about as hard to comprehend as computers for most Baby Boomers. And most people have a real tough time predicting non-linear change. If you told someone in 1995, that in 15 years, most people would could own a smartphone that was faster than their desktop, had a faster internet connection than their desktop, was touchscreen, more storage capacity and half to a third of the price, they'd probably laugh at you. This is exactly what it's like as an engineer discussing the state of green tech with people who are ignorant of where the tech is at the moment.

Read some of those links a little closer? Most of them are speculative and far from "most engineers say". These articles are also written from a consumer perspective. So in 2024 with gas at 1.50 a liter more than half of which is tax, and electricity in all forms massively subsidized the costs will be equal. (With the big caveat if battery prices continue to fall despite issues around mining the lithium and rare earth metals. But who will pay to build our roads in this scenario assuming a majority of new cars in 2025 are electric. Already some states are talking about charging them. This will blow up the economics massively. Regardless all of this is speculative but right now assuming the numbers posted here are accurate it is more than 25% more expensive to buy electric. Spread over the whole OCTranspo budget that is pennies per fare but someone will have to pay it. We are already tapped out with the very ambitious LRT plan that depends on a gas tax that Ford is no longer giving to cities and according to you will be plummeting in revenue very shortly. There are lots of predictions that don't come true so assuming progress is certain to be non-linear is just as big an error as the reverse.

[NOWINYOW]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

So in 2024 with gas at 1.50 a liter more than half of which is tax, and electricity in all forms massively subsidized the costs will be equal.

Subsidized electricity is not a bargain when the costs associated to subsidize are just added onto the massively growing public debt. We're going to reach a breaking point where we will no longer be able to borrow because our credit risk will be too high. There won't be subsidized electricity then, but there will certainly be taxes on electricity similar to what we see now with oil & gas.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Read some of those links a little closer? Most of them are speculative and far from "most engineers say". These articles are also written from a consumer perspective.

I could provided scholarly journal articles. But it's not quite catering to the audience at hand.

And having spent some time on a military academic exchange doing a bit of graduate work on the topic, I can fairly say that my exposure has me confident that virtually every engineer exposed to the topic comes away with the idea that this field is far, far more advanced than publicly understood.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

So in 2024 with gas at 1.50 a liter more than half of which is tax, and electricity in all forms massively subsidized the costs will be equal.....But who will pay to build our roads in this scenario assuming a majority of new cars in 2025 are electric.

Governments. Like they do now. Are you under the impression that gas taxes come close to the cost of maintaining most of our roads? Especially given our climate and how much is spent on snow clearing and post-winter repair?

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Already some states are talking about charging them. This will blow up the economics massively.

Given the cost differences between electricity and gas prices, even a per km charge won't come close to parity. Heck, I personally think attaching per km charges by weight class is a great way to price road consumption. Along with congestion charges.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Regardless all of this is speculative but right now assuming the numbers posted here are accurate it is more than 25% more expensive to buy electric. Spread over the whole OCTranspo budget that is pennies per fare but someone will have to pay it.

25% more to buy the bus. And then save 95L of diesel per day on average. This is why electric buses are actually growing exponentially in sales. A transit bus is not like your car. It uses a lot more fuel. And it covers 300-500 km per day, 5-6 days a week for 10-15 years. Lifecycle costs matter. And unlike consumers, transit authorities actually consider total lifecycle costs. They don't just look at the sticker price.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

We are already tapped out with the very ambitious LRT plan that depends on a gas tax that Ford is no longer giving to cities and according to you will be plummeting in revenue very shortly.

The reason to buy electric buses is to save on lifecycle costs. This is why I've repeatedly said OC Transpo needs to run trials to determine if there are lifecycle savings for OC Transpo's particular usage profiles. If a study shows otherwise, don't buy them. You don't need Ford's cash to buy electric buses because buses are being purchased anyway. The only question is whether there's an opportunity to reduce OC Transpo's operational budget for a slight increase in capital expenditure (which itself should be offset in due course).

Originally Posted by YOWetal

There are lots of predictions that don't come true so assuming progress is certain to be non-linear is just as big an error as the reverse.

This is akin to arguing that you shouldn't replace your typewriter with a computer because all projections for processing power could prove erroneous.

We are well past the point where this is some experimental thing. There's literally hundreds of thousands of electric buses already in service and a ton of major developed world cities are either pledging to flat out stop buying diesel buses beyond 2025 or are actively studying whether they can/should make that pledge. And the attractive bit to them is less environmental concerns than flat out fiscal considerations:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyi.../#1b78b5a75f78

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Read some of those links a little closer? Most of them are speculative and far from "most engineers say". These articles are also written from a consumer perspective. So in 2024 with gas at 1.50 a liter more than half of which is tax, and electricity in all forms massively subsidized the costs will be equal.

Electricity isn't subsidized. Well it kind of temporarily is in Ontario thanks to the clusterfuck scheme Wynne came up with that Ford is unfortunately keeping, but even if it wasn't, the cost of buying electricity for an EV is still far below the cost of buying gas. Fun fact: that would be remain true even if gas wasn't taxed. (With Ontario's electricity prices as they were in 2016, so pre-subsidization, you'd have to get gas down to $0.25 to $0.30 a litre to just to match the operating cost of an EV, and IIRC gas prices without any taxation would be something like $0.70 a litre).

Originally Posted by YOWetal

But who will pay to build our roads in this scenario assuming a majority of new cars in 2025 are electric. Already some states are talking about charging them. This will blow up the economics massively.

Gas taxes only make up a small portion of government revenues. For Ontario, only about $2.5 billion out of a $160 billion budget. Remember that in Canada, unlike the US, we don't have dedicated taxes to specific things--all money from all taxes goes to one pot and everything is paid for from that one pot. So a massive drop in gas sales won't actually cause any direct impact on road budgets, it will just add a billion or two to the province's deficit, which can be addressed through literally any means. (In the US, a lot of states have laws where specific taxes have to be spent on specific things, so it's different there). In Ontario, the gas tax for transit scheme does directly tie to the number of litres of gasoline sold, so there will have to be revisions there. I imagine the province will just turn into a grant program.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Regardless all of this is speculative but right now assuming the numbers posted here are accurate it is more than 25% more expensive to buy electric. Spread over the whole OCTranspo budget that is pennies per fare but someone will have to pay it. We are already tapped out with the very ambitious LRT plan that depends on a gas tax that Ford is no longer giving to cities and according to you will be plummeting in revenue very shortly. There are lots of predictions that don't come true so assuming progress is certain to be non-linear is just as big an error as the reverse.

It would be financed through the operating savings over the lifespan of the bus. Remember that governments aren't like people. Upfront cost isn't what matters, it's total lifetime cost.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by NOWINYOW

Subsidized electricity is not a bargain when the costs associated to subsidize are just added onto the massively growing public debt. We're going to reach a breaking point where we will no longer be able to borrow because our credit risk will be too high. There won't be subsidized electricity then, but there will certainly be taxes on electricity similar to what we see now with oil & gas.

As there should be. But even fully priced in electricity is not going to work out to be more expensive per km/mile, over gas, because EVs are just that much more efficient than gas cars. Heck, you don't even need a full electric to save. Just get a plug in that covers your commute and easily 80% of driving is covered. Here's a great US DOE website. Put in your own mileage mix and anticipated fuel prices and compare the savings.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find...id=41184&#tab1

It becomes very clear, very quickly that plug-in hybrids are enough to save money for most people. Most commutes are less than 40 km (25 miles) round trip. A Chevy Volt or Prius plug-in can cover that very easily. Effectively reserving the gas engine for non-commuting trips. And we're at the point that plug-ins could easily have 100 km of electric range in 2-3 years, covering a substantially larger portion of all local trips, effectively leaving gas consumption almost exclusively for road-trips. And the cost advantages are obvious. As it stands, any plug in has less than half the annual fueling cost of any economy sedan (like a Corolla or Civic).

That's what people don't get. The process of electrification of transport is very different for different applications. With cars it's not about 100% conversion to electric vehicles. Plug-ins can do a lot. Buses, however, are very different. There are substantially more advantages and flexibility for any fleet operator to go fully electric.

[CityTech]

One of the downsides of plug in hybrids is because of their increased weight, when they are running in gas operation, they are less efficient than comparable pure ICE vehicles. So if they're being used in gas mode a lot, they end up being less efficient overall. However as you said the vast majority of people would have commute patterns that result in electric mode being used at least 80% of the time if not more.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by CityTech

One of the downsides of plug in hybrids is because of their increased weight, when they are running in gas operation, they are less efficient than comparable pure ICE vehicles. So if they're being used in gas mode a lot, they end up being less efficient overall. However as you said the vast majority of people would have commute patterns that result in electric mode being used at least 80% of the time if not more.

Another disadvantage of plug in hybrids is you are paying for an ICE that will rarely be used. For many it would be cheaper to buy an equivalent EV and then rent a ICE vehicle on the rare occasions that you need the extended range (or use an alternative mode of transport). Admittedly that isn't as convenient.

[OCCheetos]

OC Transpo has done a full 180 and is recommending the purchase of two Nova Bus LFSe (the fast charging ones used in Montreal) to begin operating next year at a cost of $5-6 million (which includes all the required infrastructure)

https://twitter.com/KatePorterCBC/st...858909185?s=19