I'll start by saying that I am the worse offender for overly long posts, I just can't stop and am terrible at editing and trimming down. All of it seems relevant to me because I enjoy these topics and love people sharing details, news, etc., I wish I could do it all day! Anyways, I have edited the post to take the tangent convos out of the relevant post, and moved down below as *further discussion. Haha I didn't want to delete the other thoughts, but they were so off on a tangent, it seemed disrespectful to force you to read it when you just want the key points
. But if the long trains of thought are OK for you and you actually want to read, it's compiled at the end :p
I always assumed Canada had full open skies with Australia (and NZ as well). I never even considered bilateral allowances to be a factor, and they probably really weren't, even the previous allowance allowed more than what was being operated, so it wasn't a hinderance. But nice to see it officially changed to open skies.
I can't tell you how relieved I am to see the Air Canada China announcement. I didn't even know there had been any progress at all in opening up between us and China, I thought we were still in major political hot water with them and nothing was moving. I knew it was inevitable things would open a bit, but had resigned myself to thinking it was years away because things got very politically charged, it wasn't just pandemic remnants anymore, that was real bad blood. So this announcement came out of nowhere for me and was a nice surprise. And good to see the late morning/early afternoon Asia block get some heft again, both PEK and PVG being more or less to their old timing. Everything had been late night departures for a while, which is nice too, but the daytime block was always an AC staple, so this is back to form. Does anybody know where the aircraft came from? I know HKG went from 10 back to 7 (ie back to normal), so those extra 3 would account for the PVG move from 4 to 7. But the daily PEK is all new. The DXB reduction to 3 accounts for 1 frequency I guess, maybe they just swapped out a domestic run to YYZ or something, they were putting a lot of heavies on North America transcon. I didn't know the domestic schedules at all to even notice if a flight/flights switched to a narrow body to free up for PEK. It doesn't matter, was just curious.
And just saw this, another very positive revelation:
AIR CHINA RESUMES BEIJING – VANCOUVER NONSTOP SERVICE FROM NOV 2024
NW24Star Alliance
Written By Jim Liu
Published at 2200GMT 01NOV24
Air China on Friday (01NOV24) evening local time in China filed service changes to Canada. Effective 08NOV24, the airline will resume nonstop Beijing Capital – Vancouver service, replacing existing 1-stop flight via Shenyang. Service will increase to 3 weekly from 18NOV24.
Boeing 777-300ER aircraft operates this route.
CA997 PEK1520 – 1000YVR 773 156
CA998 YVR1300 – 1620+1PEK 773 156
Very quick on CA's part, starting in just a couple weeks. Seems like a sign they see solid demand; some airlines would see a competitor (AC) jumping right back to daily from nothing as a roadblock and sit back on the route (or keep the Covid-era nonsense of a technical stop in Shenyang which wasn't even revenue, glad that's disappeared now). So CA getting back in tandem with AC is nice to see. And they are also codesharing again on both PEK and PVG, it's definitely been a long time since that happened.
So overall a pleasant thawing, and I have a feeling MU or CZ are next, as the next step after upping TO frequencies. Right now the mainland carriers have more to YYZ, but that's expected because AC is literally down to zero, absolutely no flights to PEK, PVG, or HKG, and all had been daily before, so that's a massive void. The mainline additions are nowhere near enough to make up for AC, and are below their own historic frequencies, never mind comensating for a total AC absence. I believe this is because of the Russian airspace? I am not sure at all though, someone please correct me or provide more explanation if you know.
Again, just my musings, not gospel or fact, I have no doubt the airlines are improving exponentially (and will moreso with global traffic getting back). But stories from the past show it isn't as large or experienced as the big boys. This slightly uncomfortable feeling was mainly for the airline; the airport was of course nearly new, huge and souless yet so shiny and futuristic. China really went hard on infrastructure investments like airports, so luckily a decrepit shack from the 70s was unlikely. But as new and clean as it was, it definitely seemed to lack the internationality of an airport like CAN or PEK, which are teeming with travellers from all over the globe. But again, this was just some feedback, and it was because this friend usually took CX thru HKG or KE thru ICN, so it was a high bar. And looking at Chengdu's Wiki page, it is actually huge for traffic, bigger than I would've thought, but I know next to nothing about Chinese cities so I'm going from other's accounts..
I do hope this doesn't affect the gains we've had with other places while AC had no China (BKK, SIN, DXB), or the other airlines that seemed to benefit (ZipAir starting to NRT, Korean Air going to double daily this winter, even AI's DEL going to daily and 777-300ER). We don't know the extent or impact of China disappearing, but you have to figure there was some benefit to Japan, Korea, and even Taiwan to capture more traffic with China not in then competition. But I think those routes will be more or less fine. KE always had the 2nd daily service as seasonal, right from launch. Maybe they had a feeling it wouldn't be a forever thing, so kept it seasonal since the capacity increase might be too much. So rather than cancelling, you keep it seasonal, and then everyone will forget so you quietly don't operate double daily next winter, no big deal. Only us nerds who come here or read aero routes etc. will even know. So I will take the win of winter seasonal this year, TBD for the future. Getting AC back to daily to PEK and PVG are more important than KE's brand new late night addition. Don't get me wrong, I'd love if they kept the increase next year or even made it year-round, but the trade off is worth it, if it's one or the other.
I've posted before about the KE-OZ merger, quite the process they are going through with the competition concerns. But rumour has it (and by rumour, I mean a Google search of "Korean Air Asian Merger, and many sites indicate US approval is imminent). The complexity of the merger process could be explained by the strategic importance of South Korea to all the big player countries in the competition hearings.
Shenzhen is also undeniably lesser known in the West than Shanghai or Beijing is, not even close to the same exposure. Even uneducated hicks from the US would likely have heard of Shanghai and Beijing (or Peking), but ask general population people if they've heard of or know of Shenzhen at all, and they wouldn't. Yet it is a mega city and one of the most important centres in China and even globally. I myself had no idea just HOW colossal Shenzhen has become until I read this on Wikipedia:
Shenzhen is ranked as an Alpha- (global first-tier) city by the Globalization and World Cities Research Network. Its nominal GDP has surpassed those of its neighboring cities of Guangzhou and Hong Kong and is now among those of the cities with the ten largest economies in the world. Shenzhen also has the eighth most competitive and largest financial center in the world, the seventh-most Fortune Global 500 headquarters, fifth-highest number of billionaires, the second largest number of skyscrapers, the 19th largest scientific research output, and several higher education institutions, including Shenzhen University, Southern University of Science and Technology, and Shenzhen Technology University
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenzhen
Those are some huge rankings for a city that is comparatively unknown globally, it's like the biggest place most people haven't heard of. But changing fast. Xiamen is also no slouch, gigantic population and up there in terms of importance in CN, but nowhere near Shenzhen. So YVR gets three lesser known destinations, so what?! They're actually going to very major Chinese hubs, just not the main ones everyone knows like CAN, PVG, or PEK. I have no doubt MU and CZ will be back, their YVR routes were strong, it was the smaller places I didn't know the future of. So it's kind of nice to still have the less knowns
It's kind of like how Vancouver has so much more authentic Chinese cuisine than almost anywhere outside Asia, and from lots of geographic regions. Other major Western cities have super fancy and ritzy Chinese cuisine, and of course tons of North American cities have small town Chinese places, where it's a buffet specializing in lemon chicken, fried rice, and the odd Western offerings mixed in. Plus fortune cookies lol! And then some cities have super high end Chinese restaurants, which may be good but are too ritzy pretentious for me (I say the same for most food genres, I am not a fan of the most Instagramable, pretty places, just not my vibe or taste). But the Vancouver area has the extreme diversity, authenticity, and relatively affordable menu prices compared to other cities. I don't know how to explain it, but the uniqueness of Metro Van's Chinese offerings is really a legit bragging point we deserve to be proud to talk about. Unlike the cringe conversation we've all had with Vancouver haters, trying to use the "better weather" or "more laid back" selling points lol, it's so cringe and weird now if you hear people talk about those things lol! But talking about the unique makeup of Metro Van's Chinese clusters (not just Chinatown or Richmond, but lots elsewhere in the region), and I feel confident and impressed, not phony and idiotic if I was bragging about shorts in March or whatever. Neither the food nor the neighbourhoods are everyone's cup of tea, and many wouldn't be interested in exploring. But even they couldn't deny how unique the region is to have places like downtown Richmond, it's so wild for people from other Western cities to experience. Sure as hell more interesting than waiting in the rain for a steam clock to go off..
PS>> It is also very against the current in terms of what other global airlines are doing re: China, namely cancelling or reducing service. Despite many China-Western routes having minor competition from Chinese carriers, Western airlines apparently are cutting back, despite still being way below capacity pre-Covid, which
could suggest some significant demand declines in travel to/from western places. This article goes into more detail:
Major airlines are cutting services to China or quitting entirely amid low travel demand, high costs
So it appears AC is one of the only western carriers to increase service nowadays. Will be very interesting to see if Vancouver fares better than other world cities, and the routes are sustainable.
Additional Thoughts
Down under is definitely a growth market, they are so isolated and have no other options than air travel, and are so physically isolated that unless a route is super strong, even modern aircraft make the economics tricky.
YVR will get CZ to CAN and MU to PVG, almost certainly at some point. As for all the random smaller cities and carriers, those were never as much a factor as CA, MU, or CZ. They had like 3 or 2 frequencies weekly, they were great destinations to have and I'm sure had strength, but even in the heydays of pre-Covid, they were a bit random. I could never remember some of the adds (Kunming or Hangzhou I think at some point, and lots of other lesser know places). So looking at this winter, I'm not surprised to see we have 2x weekly to XMN on MF (Xiamen on Xiamen Air), 1x weekly to SZX on HU (Shenzhen on Hainan Airlines), and 1x weekly to TFU on 3U (Chengdu on Sichaun Airlines). These are much more obscure airport codes and airline codes, so I wouldn't expect even airport former buffs to necessarily remember what they stood for haha, and don't want people having to Google them. It seems fitting that YYZ gets the 3 main airports and airlines, and YVR gets the relatively more obscure destinations, and two very
authentic mainland carriers. I say that with italics because an airline like Sichuan Airlines is nothing like China Southern; CZ is huge, very global, huge traffic, focused on the global hubs in Guangzhou and Beijing, so much more modern. Sichuan is just not as slick or "western friendly" as MU or CZ which operate big Western networks. Sichuan does have a "decent" amount of Western destinations, but it's really minor compared to the Big 3, so it's in a different league in terms of being an experienced carrier to Western places. And this is coming from many first hand experiences told to me by friends, or coworkers, or anyone who's been on them. One friend connected to India in 2018 via Chengdu I think on Sichuan, and he said it definitely was kind of provincial. Not bad, mostly smooth and decent planes (they fly the A350 to YVR, I'm sure miles better than their old 330s they used to fly). It was just a general feeling and experience that the airline and flight were not in the same league as the bigger players, and with a much less diverse pax composition (it did have a decent amount of Indian-bound pax, but nothing like the diversity on a Cathay flight, with so many people connecting to other places in Asia so the flights are so mixed ethnically. By comparison, 3U seemed more for mainlanders.
Huge economy plus relationships and strength in Asia and globally, it matters what happens there. Not to mention the whole North Korea insanity that never goes away, it's bizarre. What must it be like to be soooooo close to them, having that erratic tyrant right beside you (yes, I can see people making parallels to Canada and the US esp with Donald Trump, but that situation is nowhere near the same and N and S Korea). The people I expect have real hidden mental situations, even though on the surface they don't seem bothered or affected. I know that is the case for people in many persistent conflict zones or contested border regions. Life goes on, they are people just making it work, despite the bizarre and scary thing next door. And they've excelled at that, but I suspect not without a lot of hidden anxiety and mental issues. Similar to Israel in many ways, both coming from such deep histories of conflict and persistent danger, yet becoming very high tech growth, high HDI, very educated workforce, both beneficiaries of US friendship. Not a lot of post-WWII conflict zones graduate to super high development spots, so these cites are exceptions.
Of course in bigger cities, more travelled and educated people in the West know of Shenzhen. Amongst people of Asian descent in the West, they obviously know of it, I am talking about average Americans or Canadians with no knowledge of this city's existence, let alone its importance. It's wild that a city on this scale is still relatively unknown by a lot of people, who only know Beijing or Shanghai.
I have a feeling they will be, the ties are undeniably deep, in spite of the current politics. When China was booming pre-Covid, all you heard was the rise of the middle class, the exponential growth, etc. etc. And it was true, mostly. So it was so jarring when the biggest emerging market in air travel was shut off abruptly, with bizarre pandemic restrictions that went for way longer than anywhere else. To go from where all the growth was to basically a closed off controlled Communist lockdown, was a blow no doubt. But I have some reasons for my prediction, it's not a tossup. If the pandemic and the political souring never happened, the potential was really there for deeper Vancouver/YVR to China trade and bonds. Basically if neither side had political plays, and the economic realities played out naturally, we would be one of their top priorities and important ethnic Chinese centres of the world. But somehow all this bickering and disagreement started, and got worse from there. Had things gone differently, economically we could have had benefits, increased trade, tourism, export markets, etc. But somehow it became so sour so publicly, most people didn't even know what was happening or why. If there was no flight throttling, if they reinstate approved destination status for Canada, and Trudeau doesn't make any flubs or pokes at them, we could still bounce back and get the economic relationship back on track. We now know we can fight and stand our ground to a degree, point noted. But keeping the beef going is a bad look. It's actually offensive for a lot of Chinese, the way the behaviour is. I hope the flight openings are a possible first sign of thawing in other realms. Like it or not, we have a very strong economic relationship, that can't be thrown right out. It's becoming increasingly challenging for provinces like BC to deny the impact, and could really use some help for its primary industries like forestry, energy, mining, and of course commerce/RE in the cities. RE I am good with restrictions and keeping foreign limits, but throttling the other primary industries is ridiculous, these provide so much for so many across the province. I am not talking foreign takeovers or having everything owned by China, that needs to be restricted of course. But open those economic links again, even if politically there are differences it shouldn't strangle the economy side. The contribution to our province of these export industries is huge. Go ahead and add necessary controls, oversight, and security, that is a must, but don't compromise trade because of unrelated squabbling. The economic reality is we need growth badly, it's just flat more or less right now. It's a sin to self create issues when you should be more aware of the economic repercussions.
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