PHILADELPHIA | Highrise Development Thread IX

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by Cro Burnham

I smirked when I read those comments too.

Summer, some people just like to complain. Remember the outcry over the Evo design? Funny, most of us are pleased with it now.

Not to worry, though, complainers: it is highly likely that many of these proposals will never happen, and you can sit there satisfied knowing that we still have parking lots instead of these horrendous projects.

Haha. Agreed. I guess people will complain about anything.

[Outta here]

Originally Posted by Kidphilly

What no new development announced today

All this chatter is boring - bring on some new renders

Yes , so much to read in so little time . Quite the quandary I"m in over here ,
wondering if there is any back bone to a rumor about Brandywine Trust contemplating the
addition of some 10/12 floors to it's 1919 Market design .

Also , has there been published a ground breaking start date for SLS ??

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by Outta here

Yes , so much to read in so little time . Quite the quandary I"m in over here ,
wondering if there is any back bone to a rumor about Brandywine Trust contemplating the
addition of some 10/12 floors to it's 1919 Market design .

Also , has there been published a ground breaking start date for SLS ??

Fall. September? November? One of those dates.

[Jelly Roll]

Originally Posted by summersm343

This makes no sense. All of these 6 million people in the metro don't work in center city. In order to get accurate numbers, we would have to find the workers working in center city only and where they live. Not the people working throughout the entire metro and where they live.

I agree looking at the metro level like that makes no sense and proves nothing. I know DVRPC has all of this information on their website if anyone wants to take the time to figure out the breakdown. I believe www.centercityphila.org also puts out a report that breaks it down as well.

[Kidphilly]

Originally Posted by summersm343

This makes no sense. All of these 6 million people in the metro don't work in center city. In order to get accurate numbers, we would have to find the workers working in center city only and where they live. Not the people working throughout the entire metro and where they live.

This would suggest ~42% of DT employees commute from outside Philadelphia; 25% live between Girard and Tasker

http://www.centercityphila.org/BDEEB6F6-...3ABF121686/docs/CCR13_transportation.pdf

[Cro Burnham]

Originally Posted by McBane

One troubling point: Not sure about these developers. Even though they're from out of town (a rarity and good news that we're attracting national developers) . . . if you look at their website, you can see that this is their most ambitious project to date.

I agree 100%.

I don't think you can characterize this as a "national developer". They're just not local. Toll is national. LPT is national. Tramell Crow, Forest City, etc., all national. These guys? Doesn't seem like it. Their website profile info is similar to that of Carl Marks & Co of World Trade Center fame.

I hope they are a legit outfit and can succeed because this is a site whose time has finally come, and it's a nice looking design.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by PhiLaw

Your logic suffers from vertigo. Remember all of this has to take into account the status quo. There are app. 6 million people in the metro area, 1.5 million of whom live in the city proper. Thus, the city proper represents app. 25% of all residents. Thus, your purported 50/50 ratio still skews Philadelphia's way. I know we're talking about raw numbers here, but we need a sense of proportion.

http://www.centercityphila.org/docs/CCR13_transportation.pdf

Here is a report by the Center City District. 113,801 employees of the 288,493 employees working I'm Center City live outside of the Downtown area. That is only 40%. So 60% of employees in Center City live in or around Center City. So Cubanchris' 60/40 number is the most accurate but with 60% living in the city, 40% in the burbs.

So out of 3,000 new employees to CITC, approximately 1,800 will live in the center city area which currently had a 2% vacancy rate. That is pretty close to the number 2,000 I was using. Is it not??

[Kidphilly]

Originally Posted by summersm343

http://www.centercityphila.org/docs/CCR13_transportation.pdf

Here is a report by the Center City District. 113,801 employees of the 288,493 employees working I'm Center City live outside of the Downtown area. That is only 40%. So 60% of employees in Center City live in or around Center City. So Cubanchris' 60/40 number is the most accurate but with 60% living in the city, 40% in the burbs.

So out of 3,000 new employees to CITC, approximately 1,800 will live in the center city area which currently had a 2% vacancy rate. That is pretty close to the number 2,000 I was using. Is it not??

no only 25% live between Girard and Tasker - in same link

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by Kidphilly

This would suggest ~42% of DT employees commute from outside Philadelphia; 25% live between Girard and Tasker

http://www.centercityphila.org/BDEEB6F6-...3ABF121686/docs/CCR13_transportation.pdf

Really? The report I pulled said 60% live between Broad and Tasker. Are your numbers correct? Are mine correct? Anyways even pulling all of Center City employees is skewed for our comparison because there is a lot of low wage jobs in Center City like retail and fast food. The majority of tech/media jobs in CITC will be well paying jobs.

[Baconboy007]

Originally Posted by summersm343

http://www.centercityphila.org/docs/CCR13_transportation.pdf



So out of 3,000 new employees to CITC, approximately 1,800 will live in the center city area which currently had a 2% vacancy rate. That is pretty close to the number 2,000 I was using. Is it not??

You're #'s are still off, where will all the FMC employees live?

[Kidphilly]

Originally Posted by summersm343

Really? The report I pulled said 60% live between Broad and Tasker. Are your numbers correct? Are mine correct? Anyways even pulling all of Center City employees is skewed for our comparison because there is a lot of low wage jobs in Center City like retail and fast food. The majority of tech/media jobs in CITC will be well paying jobs.

is 25% re-read it

And again I am bullish on Philly but also remember not all these jobs are high end there is also support staff etc - for every one higher paying there is likely one lower to medium paying

I love new jobs and development am just persoanlly bullish but also tempered by some fair balance - i think we will continue to see growth and development - just dont think the CTIC alone will generate 5-7 cranes exclusively at all - I think a lot of people are bullinsh but am not sure I buy this will generate the others by itself - also remember that between the Morman, Riverview, 1900, and 1919 there is an additional what 2K units coming on line around that time close to CTIC

More important is the vacancy rates which show strength overall and the CTIC will only enhance this

But then again if 88 could build a new arena maybe the CTIC could build two so-to-speak

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by Kidphilly

no only 25% live between Girard and Tasker - in same link

I think you're reading it wrong. It says 25% who live between Girard and Tasker walk to work. Of the 288,493 employees in Center City, 113,801 commute in from outside of greater Center City. That means roughly 60% of employees who work in Center City live in Center City. Am I miss something?

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by Baconboy007

You're #'s are still off, where will all the FMC employees live?

FMC is already based in Philly. While they are expanding, I wouldn't imagine them adding more than 200 or so new jobs. Nothing that will create THAT much more demand in the market like 3000 new employees.

[Philly Fan]

Not to speak for him, but I think that summers is also making the point that the folks who will work in CITC can't be analyzed based on the general demographics of workers in Center City, such as their ages, interests, backgrounds, etc. They will be much more heavily weighted toward younger, high-tech, creative types, more akin to those found on the Silicon Valley campuses of Google, Facebook, etc., than those in the typical law, consulting, or insurance firm, or even Comcast HQ itself, now found in Center City. Accordingly, they will be much more disposed to living in Center City to be closer to all that it--and the nearby trails and parks--have to offer. And I think that's a reasonable assumption.

[GarCastle]

Originally Posted by Baconboy007

You're #'s are still off, where will all the FMC employees live?

"Your life is worth Penn Medicine!"
"And so are the corpses of your ancestors! Here at Penn Medicine we can not only obliterate cancer in your body with your own T-cells, we can animate your great grandparents and get them jobs at FMC!"

Think about it, they wouldn't eat much, they would be great at repetitive tasks (they say procedural memory is usually the last to go), and they could "rest" back in their coffin so as to not cause a spike in the real estate market. Unless you think it is a coincidence that Penn Medicine and CHOP are located so close to the sizable Woodlands Cemetery.

Okay maybe I've been watching too much Walking Dead. LOL.

Cheers,
G.

[Kidphilly]

Originally Posted by summersm343

I think you're reading it wrong. It says 25% who live between Girard and Tasker walk to work. Of the 288,493 employees in Center City, 113,801 commute in from outside of greater Center City. That means roughly 60% of employees who work in Center City live in Center City. Am I miss something?

read further

"This makes it very
convenient for 113,801 Philadelphians
living outside of Greater Center City
(41.9% of the downtown workforce
and more than 25% of all working
Philadelphians in these neighborhoods)"

and what these neighborhoods entail

"Center City Philadelphia has evolved
in the last two decades into a thriving,
live-work downtown with 288,493
jobs and 175,736 residents between
Girard Avenue and Tasker Street"

http://www.centercityphila.org/BDEEB6F6-...3ABF121686/docs/CCR13_transportation.pdf

[Jelly Roll]

Originally Posted by GarCastle

"Your life is worth Penn Medicine!"
"And so are the corpses of your ancestors! Here at Penn Medicine we can not only obliterate cancer in your body with your own T-cells, we can animate your great grandparents and get them jobs at FMC!"

Think about it, they wouldn't eat much, they would be great at repetitive tasks (they say procedural memory is usually the last to go), and they could "rest" back in their coffin so as to not cause a spike in the real estate market. Unless you think it is a coincidence that Penn Medicine and CHOP are located so close to the sizable Woodlands Cemetery.

Okay maybe I've been watching too much Walking Dead. LOL.

Cheers,
G.

This is the best post in this thread

[Kidphilly]

Originally Posted by Philly Fan

Not to speak for him, but I think that summers is also making the point that the folks who will work in CITC can't be analyzed based on the general demographics of workers in Center City, such as their ages, interests, backgrounds, etc. They will be much more heavily weighted toward younger, high-tech, creative types, more akin to those found on the Silicon Valley campuses of Google, Facebook, etc., than the those in the typical law, consulting, or insurance firm, or even Comcast HQ itself, now found in Center City. Accordingly, they will be much more disposed to living in Center City to be closer to all that it--and the nearby trails and parks--have to offer. And I think that's a reasonable assumption.

not disagreeing but lets say the net new is 1,000 - of those lets be conservative and say 80% are sufficient for higher living (not that high like SLS but to afford a 16/1800+ rental; remember someone in that building has to get my coffee oh I digress) - of those lets say twice (again a favorable assumption) the average live in greater CC - so we are at 400 - I just cant compute the throughput and make it pass the rationale test TBH

[Baconboy007]

Originally Posted by Philly Fan

Not to speak for him, but I think that summers is also making the point that the folks who will work in CITC can't be analyzed based on the general demographics of workers in Center City, such as their ages, interests, backgrounds, etc. They will be much more heavily weighted toward younger, high-tech, creative types, more akin to those found on the Silicon Valley campuses of Google, Facebook, etc., than those in the typical law, consulting, or insurance firm, or even Comcast HQ itself, now found in Center City. Accordingly, they will be much more disposed to living in Center City to be closer to all that it--and the nearby trails and parks--have to offer. And I think that's a reasonable assumption.

Just playing the devils advocate here but a lot of the coworkers I had at Comcast did not live in the city, a lot lived in KOP or Jersey. But to be fair a lot were moving into the city.

[Skyscraper.Phanatic]

I live in a high rise condo and for the record I would much prefer a house with my own door and small yard and roof deck. The condo HOA fees are always going up and its a situation where you think you can get away with only "putting a key in the door". Your neighbors control the spending if they are on the board and your voice will be diminished as you have no say. In fact, there is more back and forth on this blog spot than in a condo; many of them on Ritt Square are run like dictatorships. Having total control of your life and your home expenses is a big plus for the low rise town house. And the rats can be controlled by any local exterminator.