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  #1861  
Old Posted Jan 17, 2026, 6:36 PM
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I can definitely see a scenario where Fredericton surpasses Saint John in City proper population in a decade or less. CMA too in less than a generation.

City population gap in 2005 was 18,000 now it is 4,700 in 2025.

The gap in CMA population between the two was 34,000 in 2005, 22,000 in 2021 and it's 19,000 in 2025.
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Last edited by KnoxfordGuy; Jan 17, 2026 at 6:50 PM.
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  #1862  
Old Posted Jan 17, 2026, 7:15 PM
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Anything is possible, but unless the ocean dries up, I wouldn’t bet on it.
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  #1863  
Old Posted Jan 17, 2026, 7:49 PM
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The town of Tantramar has a estimated population of 14,545 in 2023. I assume that it will also be getting it's own CA status bringing the threshold down from 50% to 35%. Various sources say that Mount Allison employs about 530 people. I wonder if this amount is now low enough out of all of the working population in Tantramar to bring it into the Moncton CMA. Afterall it has been one of the fastest growing places in New Brunswick for a few years now. Is it's new population and size enough to bring it in within a decade? It has a lot of territory around Sackville and these people might be commuters as well.
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  #1864  
Old Posted Jan 17, 2026, 7:53 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01 View Post
The town of Tantramar has a estimated population of 14,545 in 2023. I assume that it will also be getting it's own CA status bringing the threshold down from 50% to 35%. Various sources say that Mount Allison employs about 530 people. I wonder if this amount is now low enough out of all of the working population in Tantramar to bring it into the Moncton CMA. Afterall it has been one of the fastest growing places in New Brunswick for a few years now. Is it's new population and size enough to bring it in within a decade? It has a lot of territory around Sackville and these people might be commuters as well.
It would need a POPCTR of 10,000 to become a CA and unfortunately the Sackville POPCTR is only around 4,000 people. So not anytime soon... I think Amherst is pretty close to a POPCTR of 10k though.
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  #1865  
Old Posted Jan 17, 2026, 8:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Beaubassin View Post
It would need a POPCTR of 10,000 to become a CA and unfortunately the Sackville POPCTR is only around 4,000 people. So not anytime soon... I think Amherst is pretty close to a POPCTR of 10k though.
Thanks for the clarification.
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  #1866  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2026, 1:15 AM
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Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy View Post
I can definitely see a scenario where Fredericton surpasses Saint John in City proper population in a decade or less. CMA too in less than a generation.

City population gap in 2005 was 18,000 now it is 4,700 in 2025.

The gap in CMA population between the two was 34,000 in 2005, 22,000 in 2021 and it's 19,000 in 2025.
The problem with Freddy compared to SJ, is it's surrounding communities are a hell of a lot smaller than SJ's surrounding areas.

Freddy has Oromocto as it's main adjacent growth area, and then it has Marysville, Lincoln, Hanwell, New Maryland, Stanley and so forth, none of which are really "hot beds" of growth. It's good that Freddy is growing so much and it's mainly in the core city; but it would be nice if New Maryland or Hanwell or Marysville (for example) could grow enough to become a secondary "community" within it. Hanwell/New Maryland feel the closest in that respect maybe.

And once you're past the immediate Freddy area, unless you're going upriver, you effectively have nothing but absolute wilderness. There's no real bordering growth to feed into the city, other than basically Oromocto and technically sort've Nackawic.

SJ just has more around it overall that will help its growth (even if it rarely helps the city itself). Maybe Freddy can catch up, but I'm not so sure about it. The gap may narrow but SJ will probably remain just a hair larger technically speaking.
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  #1867  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2026, 3:39 PM
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Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn View Post
Anything is possible, but unless the ocean dries up, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Well said. All economic signs point to Saint John having the largest growth over the next decade or more.
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  #1868  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2026, 4:17 PM
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Well said. All economic signs point to Saint John having the largest growth over the next decade or more.
I 100% agree that SJ has turned the corner, and is on the path for continuous virtuous growth.

This however does not mean that growth in Moncton and Freddy is going to stall. Our momentum will also continue.

Location is Moncton's virtue. The port is Saint John's. Government and UNB is Freddy's. Depending on the year, and on economic conditions, there may be some years when Freddy comes out on top, and other years when SJ does, but, I am willing to bet that the majority of the time Moncton will have the higher growth rate.

Moncton has a very diverse economy which is difficult to kill.

In any event, I am happy to see SJ starting to take off again. For NB to prosper, all three cities will have to do well.
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  #1869  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2026, 5:40 PM
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I agree that SJ's growth does not automatically mean Moncton or Fredericton would see a stall, and that Moncton's economy is very diverse. Wasn't there studies a year or 2 ago that Moncton was NOT only unaffected by tariffs, but also shielded against them?
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  #1870  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2026, 3:28 PM
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Originally Posted by new kid in town View Post


I agree that SJ's growth does not automatically mean Moncton or Fredericton would see a stall, and that Moncton's economy is very diverse. Wasn't there studies a year or 2 ago that Moncton was NOT only unaffected by tariffs, but also shielded against them?
Yes.

The study suggested that SJ was highly vulnerable to tariffs, with Moncton much less so. Apparently Halifax was seen to benefit from US tariffs (increased European trade).
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  #1871  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2026, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
I 100% agree that SJ has turned the corner, and is on the path for continuous virtuous growth.

This however does not mean that growth in Moncton and Freddy is going to stall. Our momentum will also continue.

Location is Moncton's virtue. The port is Saint John's. Government and UNB is Freddy's. Depending on the year, and on economic conditions, there may be some years when Freddy comes out on top, and other years when SJ does, but, I am willing to bet that the majority of the time Moncton will have the higher growth rate.

Moncton has a very diverse economy which is difficult to kill.

In any event, I am happy to see SJ starting to take off again. For NB to prosper, all three cities will have to do well.

No one said anything about the Moncton economy dying. My comment was made in reference to a comment about SJ/Fred.

The economic indicators right now are very strong for SJ and there are some game changing projects like Point Lepreau and logistics/transportation coming around the corner. It is hard not to see quite significant growth. My personal feelings are mixed on this. Saying I live in a city bigger than City Y does not provide any better quality of life, however economic prosperity often does improve quality of life in a city.

It is hard to predict how any of the cities will grow or shrink over the coming years, but like the federal transport minister pointed out, SJ has an opportunity on a national level to move the needle. Fredericton tends to just always have modest growth year in and year out.
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  #1872  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2026, 4:13 PM
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Rank Order Atlantic Canadian CMA/CA Populations, 2026 Estimate, and Percentage Change since 2021

1) Halifax, NS - 544,834 (13.0%)
2) St, John's, NL - 243,478 (10.6%)
3) Moncton, NB - 196,143 (21.3%)
4) Saint John, NB - 144,343 (8.6%)
5) Fredericton, NB - 125,303 (12.9%)
6) Sydney (CBRM), NS - 111,889 (11,1%)
7) Charlottetown, PE - 96,516 (16.1%)
8) Truro, NS - 51,155 (6.4%)
9) New Glasgow, NS - 36,677 ( 3.7%)
10) Bathurst, NB - 33,467 (5.0%)
11) Corner Brook, NL - 31,880 (3.4%)
12) Miramichi, NB - 30,218 (7.5%)
13) Kentville, NS - 29,599 (6.4%)
14) Edmundston, NB - 24,655 (9.5%)
15) Summerside, PE - 21,107 (10.3%)
16) Campbellton, NB - 15,554 (2.3%)
17) Grand Falls/Windsor NL - 14,549 (1,7%)
18) Gander, NL - 14,389 (4.1%)

Percentage Change since 2021 (Top 10)

1) Moncton, NB - 21.3%
2) Charlottetown, PE - 16.1%
3) Halifax, NS - 13.0%
4) Fredericton, NB - 12.9%
5) Sydney (CBRM), NS - 11.1%
6) St. John's, NL - 10.6%
7) Summerside, PE - 10.3%
8) Edmundston, NB - 9.5%
9) Saint John, NB - 8.6%
10) Miramichi, NB - 7.5%

Notes:

- Every CMA/CA in Atlantic Canada had a positive growth rate from 2021-2026.
- The growth rate in CBRM was really surprising, but, this is heavily influenced by international immigration (especially non permanent residents), and is really dependent upon CBU which has one of the largest proportional international student bodies in the country. Recent changes to immigration policy will have a negative effect on the CBRM population. The population of CBRM actually fell last year.
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  #1873  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2026, 4:44 PM
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Over 50'000 in population and Truro still acts like a small town. There is no public transit. No indication that they'll ever amalgamate with Bible Hill/Onslow and provide city services.

Then there is the "four monkeys in a trench coat" scenario that is New Glasgow CA.

Really the NS Government needs to grow a pair and force some amalgamations. They should require public transit for population centres over 5'000 people. In exchange the province should help with intercity transit and some funding to create proper regional police forces.
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  #1874  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2026, 7:08 PM
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I get the impression Truro has done a good job of allowing infill and improving some public spaces like the library and town square. Example: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scot...veloped-into-new-neighbourhood-1.7362516

It's a bit of a tall order to expect a town like that to run a transit system. In some provinces there larger cities have their own systems, but the other areas have a shared system (here it is BC Transit). I also think that if NS had some good transit corridors, some of the transit issues would be solved.

Most trips are only 5 km or so there so active transportation would be very useful sometimes.
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  #1875  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2026, 10:49 PM
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I’ve always been curious why Yarmouth isn’t a bigger population centre when it has one of the most mild winter climates in Canada outside of BC. 🤔
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  #1876  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2026, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn View Post
I’ve always been curious why Yarmouth isn’t a bigger population centre when it has one of the most mild winter climates in Canada outside of BC. 🤔
I think a lot of folks aren't aware of its slightly warmer climate, but it's primarily because it's quite remote and there are limited employment opportunities outside the fisheries. Is it probably easier to get to Saint John from Yarmouth than it is to go to Halifax?

I am glad NB has its population more evenly distributed across several cities than NS does. Having such a large portion of the population concentrated in a single city is problematic both logistically and politically.
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  #1877  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2026, 11:09 PM
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I think a lot of folks aren't aware of its slightly warmer climate, but it's primarily because it's quite remote and there are limited employment opportunities outside the fisheries. Is it probably easier to get to Saint John from Yarmouth than it is to go to Halifax?

I am glad NB has its population more evenly distributed across several cities than NS does. Having such a large portion of the population concentrated in a single city is problematic both logistically and politically.
It should be easy to get between Saint John and Yarmouth, but isn’t really unless you take your car with you on the Digby Ferry. I prefer to take the scenic route to Halifax via Yarmouth and and South Shore, but the ferry is still pretty expensive, even after the fares were slashed in half.

I really think it’s a shame there’s not a bus onwards to Yarmouth and Halifax from Digby… even if it was just a seasonal bus. Our governments spend all that money keeping those ferries operating, and now have further subsidized them, but they can’t subsidize a bus service between Digby, Yarmouth, and Halifax?
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  #1878  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2026, 11:24 PM
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It should be easy to get between Saint John and Yarmouth, but isn’t really unless you take your car with you on the Digby Ferry. I prefer to take the scenic route to Halifax via Yarmouth and and South Shore, but the ferry is still pretty expensive, even after the fares were slashed in half.

I really think it’s a shame there’s not a bus onwards to Yarmouth and Halifax from Digby… even if it was just a seasonal bus. Our governments spend all that money keeping those ferries operating, and now have further subsidized them, but they can’t subsidize a bus service between Digby, Yarmouth, and Halifax?
We live in a car-centric society, sadly. I grew up primarily walking, taking the bus, or trains when needed, and I would happily do so again if it were a comparable option. I appreciate the size and small population of the Maritimes, which makes it a challenge, but I hold out hope.

Too many people look down on public transport like it's just an option for the poor, the young and old, or the disabled. If you talk to those who have moved here from overseas, they see taking a bus as normal, but you speak with many who are from here, and they look at you like you're crazy.

I've joked with folks before that, for many people, their ideal day consists of going to a drive-through for coffee before work, driving to work, driving to get lunch, driving to a retail store to shop, driving to a franchised restaurant for dinner, driving to a park to walk, and then driving home. They expect minimal traffic and parking, 30 feet from the door from everything, too.
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  #1879  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2026, 12:54 AM
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I get the impression Truro has done a good job of allowing infill and improving some public spaces like the library and town square. Example: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scot...veloped-into-new-neighbourhood-1.7362516

It's a bit of a tall order to expect a town like that to run a transit system. In some provinces there larger cities have their own systems, but the other areas have a shared system (here it is BC Transit). I also think that if NS had some good transit corridors, some of the transit issues would be solved.

Most trips are only 5 km or so there so active transportation would be very useful sometimes.
Bridgewater is just a hair under 10K population and has had transit since 2017.
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  #1880  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2026, 1:14 AM
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We live in a car-centric society, sadly. I grew up primarily walking, taking the bus, or trains when needed, and I would happily do so again if it were a comparable option. I appreciate the size and small population of the Maritimes, which makes it a challenge, but I hold out hope.

Too many people look down on public transport like it's just an option for the poor, the young and old, or the disabled. If you talk to those who have moved here from overseas, they see taking a bus as normal, but you speak with many who are from here, and they look at you like you're crazy.

I've joked with folks before that, for many people, their ideal day consists of going to a drive-through for coffee before work, driving to work, driving to get lunch, driving to a retail store to shop, driving to a franchised restaurant for dinner, driving to a park to walk, and then driving home. They expect minimal traffic and parking, 30 feet from the door from everything, too.
See, as someone coming here from Western Canada, I have a very hard time believing that the size of the Maritimes is a reason why we have crappy bus and nearly non existent passenger rail service. The Maritimes are positively tiny, and the mostly densely populated provinces in Canada. Saskatchewan used to have an amazing province wide bus system that put maritime bus to shame in a province more than twice the size of the Maritimes with half the population. Saskatchewan is more like NB, and Manitoba is more like NS, but NB, PEI, and NS’s cities are very close to each other compared to the cities of the prairies.

I can understand why we have crappy passenger rail, but I can’t understand why we can’t have better interprovincial and intraprovincial bus systems here in the smallest provinces in Canada with the densest populations. I also can’t for the life of me understand how someone would rather drive to the Fredericton or Moncton airport from Saint John and pay for parking and 3+ hours of driving… instead of just taking a bus or airport shuttle where you can sit back and relax before and after your flight.

I think it’s ridiculous that Saint John Transit can’t implement some or airbus express bus that goes to and from the airport at least three times a day and could be scheduled around the limited flight schedule of the airport. $10 to get to the airport on an express route with limited stops, as is common in many other cities in Canada.

Nonetheless, Saint Johners need better bus and airport shuttle options to get to YFC, YQM, and YHZ even more than we need better bus options to YSJ. I don’t mind taking a cab or uber to the airport, since a bus isn’t an option, but Ubers and taxis aren’t really options to go to the Fredericton or Moncton airports. Busses, however, should be reliable options. The province and regional service commissions in the Fundy and Fredericton regions could surely fund a better bus system between the two cities and airports.

If we want growth to be more equitable and sustainable across the cities in our relatively tiny and densely populated provinces… we need to invest in the transportation capabilities of our people. Better connecting the people of the Maritimes to their airports and other cities and regions should be a priority of current and future governments to make this a better place to both live and visit without a car. We have no good excuses for the sorry state of bus travel in one of the smallest and most scenic regions in Canada. If SW Nova Scotia had invested in a better bus system instead of failed theme parks, they could be attracting a whole segment of carless tourists from the Northeast US and the rest of Canada. Not everyone wants to go visit a place where they have to rent a car.

Last edited by EnvisionSaintJohn; Jan 25, 2026 at 12:53 PM.
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