AUSTIN | Economic Development

[The ATX]

Here's a Channel 10 Waco news report from August that mentions the report that Disney has bought land on both sides of the Williamson and Bell County line. What's also interesting is that Jarrell which is becoming a fast growing outer suburb in Wilco (along with Liberty Hill and Taylor) is planning to annex a 450 home development in Bell County. That means an Austin suburb will be partly in a county not part of the Austin Metro.

https://www.kwtx.com/2021/08/20/city...s-bell-county/

[drummer]

I haven't seen anything other than rumors regarding Disney. That article even states it as a rumor. Is there anything solid out there? I mean...it'd be cool, and I certainly am not easily surprised by things happening around here anymore, as others have said.

[Armybrat]

There have been Central Texas Disney rumors every decade since the late 1970s.

[lonewolf]

I have heard this rumor many times as well, this one feels different and I am taking it seriously. I think there are a lot of factors lining up.

-location. the last rumor i heard was them buying by cota back when cota launched. that doesn't make a ton of sense with schlitterbahn in nb and 6flags being in north SA. obv they will compete for intl customers but it would be nice to have easy access to 35 corridor and be the closest park for anybody from lake austin to waco. jarrell is a very good spot for this. also we have a lot of sunshine here. disney is in anaheim and orlando. doesn't take an einstein to look at a map and see where a great 3rd location would be

-timing. austin is now very, very clearly on it's way to becoming a tier1A US city. I know people on this forum have felt this way for a while but now it's obvious to people all over. if you wanted to buy a couple thousand acres in the metro the best time was yesterday. The window is closing.

-additional rumors. i have heard this park is going to be centered on their more recent PoC IP/characters (moana, raya, coco etc) I think this makes a lot of sense. And it's also a detail i've never heard before regarding previous rumors.


let's look at it this way. If not here, then where? where else in the US gets the same or near amount of sunshine as anaheim/orlando and wouldn't geographically compete with them?

if not now, when? Is this going to be a safer bet in 5 years? Will austin real estate slump and provide a better opportunity? or are we right where we want to be on the risk/reward curve?

[The ATX]

The past rumors that I always heard were for a full blown theme park in far South Texas so it could stay open year round. It would be their central US version of their California and Florida parks.

[lonewolf]

Originally Posted by The ATX

The past rumors that I always heard were for a full blown theme park in far South Texas so it could stay open year round. It would be their central US version of their California and Florida parks.

as cool as that sounds i would laugh if somebody told me that. that makes no sense unless you're talking about a resort then i would say it makes "little" sense

no airports(i say this as someone that has used san anotnio and cc intl) and no infrastructure. king ranch has most of the choice acreage where a park would kinda sorta make sense beside them a host of massive private ranches that would fight that build to the death. all of those variables evaporate in the context of a jarrell build.

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by lonewolf

as cool as that sounds i would laugh if somebody told me that. that makes no sense unless you're talking about a resort then i would say it makes "little" sense

no airports(i say this as someone that has used san anotnio and cc intl) and no infrastructure. king ranch has most of the choice acreage where a park would kinda sorta make sense beside them a host of massive private ranches that would fight that build to the death. all of those variables evaporate in the context of a jarrell build.

Well, Orlando wasn't much more than a swamp when Disney started buying up land in Central Florida. It wasn't near Kings Ranch. It was near Brownsville and McAllen. Just think how Brownsville would have developed if a Disney World/Land was built there 30-40 years ago. Maybe Space X can give it a jump start now.

[The ATX]

If somebody with a lot more energy than me right now felt like checking Williamson and Bell County property records, we might be able to see if a large entity or two has bought up large parcels of property.

[enragedcamel]

Originally Posted by The ATX

Well, Orlando wasn't much more than a swamp when Disney started buying up land in Central Florida. It wasn't near Kings Ranch. It was near Brownsville and McAllen. Just think how Brownsville would have developed if a Disney World/Land was built there 30-40 years ago. Maybe Space X can give it a jump start now.

Yeah. The story with regards to Orlando is actually pretty interesting. Disney put in substantial effort to conceal the fact that they were buying up all the land in the area because they didn't want someone catching on and land prices skyrocketing. My guess is that if they were planning to open a similar park in Texas, we also wouldn't find out about it until they were ready to break ground.

[AustinYIMBY]

Originally Posted by The ATX

If somebody with a lot more energy than me right now felt like checking Williamson and Bell County property records, we might be able to see if a large entity or two has bought up large parcels of property.

Solana Ranch appears to own roughly 9000 acres between Bell and Williamson counties, right along Salado Creek. This org looks to have owned the properties for at least a couple decades and the only recent filings I could find show they have actually sold a couple smaller parcels in the last couple years, which I would not think they would do if planning something big. The ranch has a website that is geared towards hunting, and that appears to be the prominent use of the land at this time.

[ILUVSAT]

Disney is NOT going to build another Disneyland/Disney World-like project too far removed from a major airport and/or a major city where there is already a strong lodging inventory.

It's not 1955 (when Disneyland opened) nor 1971 (when Disney World opened). The Austin metro area would be a good logical and financial bet as it already has a good lodging inventory and a growing airport - with trans-oceanic connections.

Additionally, a Jarrell location - about 30 minutes north of downtown Austin (105 miles north of downtown SA) and 2.5 hours south of the DFW Metroplex - would be a stupendous location.

[lonewolf]

Originally Posted by AustinYIMBY

Solana Ranch appears to own roughly 9000 acres between Bell and Williamson counties, right along Salado Creek. This org looks to have owned the properties for at least a couple decades and the only recent filings I could find show they have actually sold a couple smaller parcels in the last couple years, which I would not think they would do if planning something big. They ranch has a website that is geared towards hunting, and that appears to be the prominent use of the land at this time.

can confirm the hunting bit.

a couple reference points.
-last park built was disney shanghai which broke ground in summer 2011 and opened in summer of 2016. probably the best reference to use
-1,000 acres(surrounded by a moat!)
-it is a very dense park necessitated by being an urban build. hotels, parking, park itself all crammed together

project of this scope the leak never* comes from a vendor/contractor. they have skin and the game and need the money. the leak would come from somebody in permitting/local gov(this syncs up with fox7 speculation piece)

lastly, having said all this. i still probably would not give it a 50% chance of happening. i'd put it at 30% if i had to guess. but if it does happen here's my prediction. let's have some fun

-they will have overbought. 3 or 4,000 acres, with plans for half of it
-the land was bought through shell companies quite some time ago
-it will be be west of salado creek, south of 2843, north of spears ranch road
-groundbreaking 3q 2022
-will be unique from other parks in focus on wildlife/nature. zoo? Serengeti safari a la busch gardens? national geographic feature? (they dropped 50b on acquiring natgeo in 2017)
-also i'll go ahead and predict the rumor of it being based on more recent IP will be true
-opening in summer of 2028 or spring of 2029

[ATX2030]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

Disney is NOT going to build another Disneyland/Disney World-like project too far removed from a major airport and/or a major city where there is already a strong lodging inventory.

It's not 1955 (when Disneyland opened) nor 1971 (when Disney World opened). The Austin metro area would be a good logical and financial bet as it already has a good lodging inventory and a growing airport - with trans-oceanic connections.

Additionally, a Jarrell location - about 30 minutes north of downtown Austin (105 miles north of downtown SA) and 2.5 hours south of the DFW Metroplex - would be a stupendous location.

Agree. Don't forget the Houston metro in only a 2.5-3 hour drive as well. Very large population pool to pull from.

[the Genral]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

Disney is NOT going to build another Disneyland/Disney World-like project too far removed from a major airport and/or a major city where there is already a strong lodging inventory.

It's not 1955 (when Disneyland opened) nor 1971 (when Disney World opened). The Austin metro area would be a good logical and financial bet as it already has a good lodging inventory and a growing airport - with trans-oceanic connections.

Additionally, a Jarrell location - about 30 minutes north of downtown Austin (105 miles north of downtown SA) and 2.5 hours south of the DFW Metroplex - would be a stupendous location.

I agree. Perhaps the area around COTA would be more practical / feasible.

[lonewolf]

eh. out there would have a couple things going for it but del valle is going to be quite a bit more expensive. a lot more people are interested in land out there right now than jarrell.

abia>130>35>jarrell really is not that bad. doubt it'd be an hour with traffic. i bet a lot more people would be tempted to stay in austin than on disney owned property as well if they built by cota

also a lot of people don't live out there bc airport traffic(as in the planes themselves) is really annoying. its a good spot for manufacturing

[hookem]

Knowing how these rumors get started, I can’t help but think maybe COTA buying rides for their amusement park got telephone gamed into the Disney rumor again. It just doesn’t seem like a big amusement park makes financial sense these days. Too much liability, inefficient use of land, have to assume no more pandemic shutdowns in the future because they would kill business.

[chinchaaa]

Another thought - Jarrell would make a nice stop on a Dallas - Austin - San Antonio high speed train.

[freerover]

Originally Posted by chinchaaa

Another thought - Jarrell would make a nice stop on a Dallas - Austin - San Antonio high speed train.

The planned route is along the 130/973 corridor in central texas so the closest stop would be Bartlett, Tx.

[We vs us]

I did a lot of asking around re: Disney and no one in my immediate circles seems to know anything out of the ordinary. Everyone remembers the past rumors, everyone feels like Disney has a real affinity for TX. But nothing new on the horizon so far as we collectively know.

[The ATX]

Maybe it was just time for the Disney rumor to get stirred up again. We are on the front end of a new decade.