Statistics Canada Reports II

[jamincan]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Point taken. They are not entirely analogous.

It disturbs me that the CSA system allows Washington and Baltimore to be combined. These are two distinct urban areas as far as I'm concerned. More distinct than Toronto and Hamilton for example.

I was visiting Northern Virginia last month and it definitely seems strange that the Washington CSA extends all the way through it and into West Virginia even. While there were definitely people commuting into the DC metro area from the area we were at (Front Royal/Shenandoah Valley) I remain skeptical that the connection is strong enough to include those places in with DC. It would be like including Shelbourne or Orillia in with Toronto.

[Innsertnamehere]

Charles Town in WV has exploded in growth lately with commuters driving into the western suburbs of DC.

People living there aren't working in DC itself, but in Leesburg, Reston, Etc.

The problem with a lot of US northeast metros is that they never really "end" before the next metro begins. Americans travel so far for work that commuting sheds just spread out to insane distances.

DC especially since employment is so distributed and less centred on downtown than most US metros. There is tons of high employment concentrations deep in the suburbs which makes commuting from the outer rings more feasible.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

Agreed. Toronto is not a city where young people can easily get ahead anymore. My fiancée and I, both in our late 20s, and work jobs that would not pay more working in the GTA vs anywhere else, so living in a smaller city is a no-brainer for us since the cost of living is drastically lower and allows us to save and get ahead. We are even at a point where home ownership is possible within the next year, which would still be very far out of reach if we lived in the GTA.

The GTA is not for young people anymore. It might have been prior to the pandemic, but it definitely isn’t what it used to be. Cost of living has ruined so many things for so many people. I also have coworkers who can attest to the drastic lifestyle changes that come with leaving the GTA. A 35-year old drafter at my office was living in a rooming house in Brampton for a few years until she switched from one of our GTA offices to our office here in London. She makes the same amount of money but can now afford to rent her own place and finally start saving. Crazy differences.

This is as great an example if there ever was one of killing the goose that laid the golden egg.

A place (Toronto) is so attractive that everyone (or so it seems) wants to move there, making it an increasingly expensive and unaffordable place to live. As a result, the place slowly transitions to becoming an undesirable place for people who have a choice as to where they can live, and who are precisely the kind of people you'd want to be coming to your city.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Nite

Far more young ambitus people move to Toronto than move out every year. the city alone grew by 125K last year.

The next set of major Canadian companies will be coming out of Toronto not Moncton.

Can you even name the last set of major Canadian companies to come out of Toronto? I'll give you extra points if you can find a few that aren't older than 100 years.

Also, Moncton is beating Toronto at its own game:

[Nashe]

I get this scratchy/itchy feeling in the back of my head that Moncton is going to become some kind of meme-town.

Like a different "flavour" of Okotoks.

[ericmacm]

Originally Posted by theman23

Can you even name the last set of major Canadian companies to come out of Toronto? I'll give you extra points if you can find a few that aren't older than 100 years.

Also, Moncton is beating Toronto at its own game:

The only “recent” large companies that I can think of that were founded in specifically Toronto are EQ Bank, GFL, Thomson Reuters, RBI, Rogers, and Constellation Software. This group isn’t insignificant, but it still isn’t that much when it comes to our largest companies. Another big one was ATI but that was purchased by AMD almost 20 years ago so it doesn’t really count.

We have had way more large companies come out of Montreal and Calgary historically. Most of our modern tech companies have also been centred on Ottawa/Waterloo area.

[niwell]

Ehhhh I know people who do hiring at various companies in the financial, tech and legal sectors and there isn't really an issue attracting young talent in Toronto. These areas pay well even with cost increases and Toronto is generally where you want to be if you want to advance your career, at least in Anglo Canada. The big issue arises for those in more middle-income professional careers that decide to have a family, and of course those in the service sector. Tale of two cities thing I've brought up many times.

Speaking to this there's are still a lot of younger families with money (either from their job or inheritance) as evidenced by who's buying many of the places that go for close to $2M in my area. There's no dearth of children being walked to school every morning or in nearby parks. Of those I know with young kids most have stayed in Toronto, one moved to Barrie and a couple to Hamilton.

If anything it's areas like mine (public sector) that are going to suffer. While Toronto is still the place to be if you want to advance your career, those who are more interested in settling down and raising a family are likely to choose elsewhere. Particularly when pay isn't adjusted for location.

[MolsonExport]

Manitoba Milestone: closing on on 1.5 million

Provincial flag of Manitoba Manitoba 1,493,462 (June 4, 2024, 2pm)

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by niwell

Ehhhh I know people who do hiring at various companies in the financial, tech and legal sectors and there isn't really an issue attracting young talent in Toronto. These areas pay well even with cost increases and Toronto is generally where you want to be if you want to advance your career, at least in Anglo Canada. The big issue arises for those in more middle-income professional careers that decide to have a family, and of course those in the service sector. Tale of two cities thing I've brought up many times.

Yes, that's been my experience too.

The other nuance is that the GTA is mostly made up of immigrants and first generation Canadians from immigrant backgrounds. Whether their families are from India or Hong Kong or Nigeria or Iran, living at home until you're married is not considered to be a sign of weakness, so you can have 29 year olds with several years of professional experience spending effectively zero for housing. Also, being of a different cultural background means they're not likely to consider other parts of Canada to move to. I personally don't know anybody who grew up with immigrant parents in the GTA who moved to Edmonton or Moncton or whatever city people claim all the young talent is moving to. Last year there was a Toronto Life article about a woman from a Caribbean background who moved from Mississauga to Edmonton and then back to Mississauga again, saying that she "missed the big city". A lot of people made fun of her, saying that Mississauga isn't a real city and that you'd be a fool to give up ownership of a big home to go back to a shoebox in the suburbs, but to me it seemed pretty reasonable: "the big city" was code for "black culture", and owning a detached home isn't a universal value.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

A lot of people made fun of her, saying that Mississauga isn't a real city and that you'd be a fool to give up ownership of a big home to go back to a shoebox in the suburbs, but to me it seemed pretty reasonable: "the big city" was code for "black culture", and owning a detached home isn't a universal value.

I agree with your point, but I still wonder what could be changed so that she could afford more than a shoebox in Mississauga, or so that more Waterloo grads in high-demand fields move to Toronto instead of the USA. I think fixing housing would help with the tech worker brain drain issue; affordable housing and good infrastructure (plus other things like lower crime and higher quality public schools) would be a way to compete against higher salaries.

[FrAnKs]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Manitoba Milestone: closing on on 1.5 million

Provincial flag of Manitoba Manitoba 1,493,462 (June 4, 2024, 2pm)

This place is so big. They could fit 150 million pop. in and still have enough space

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nashe

I get this scratchy/itchy feeling in the back of my head that Moncton is going to become some kind of meme-town.

Like a different "flavour" of Okotoks.

Noooooo!!! Not OKOTOKS!!!!!

[Build.It]

It would actually be interesting to see intraprovincial migration to/from the GTA broken down by background ... first gen, second gen, nth gen immigrants, etc.

The working hypothesis stated above implies that those skipping town for Edmonton, Moncton, etc are disproportionately likely to be multi-gen WASP Canadians.

On face value it might be true. Toronto is a harsh place to make it in, but for those that work hard they can live very well and make more money here than anywhere else in Canada (which was one of my top reasons for returning from AB). Immigrants (and 2nd gen) tend to work harder than their multi-gen counterparts, and so you could make a case that they're more likely to thrive here and are therefore not the ones leaving for that reason.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Charles Town in WV has exploded in growth lately with commuters driving into the western suburbs of DC.

People living there aren't working in DC itself, but in Leesburg, Reston, Etc.

The problem with a lot of US northeast metros is that they never really "end" before the next metro begins. Americans travel so far for work that commuting sheds just spread out to insane distances.

DC especially since employment is so distributed and less centred on downtown than most US metros. There is tons of high employment concentrations deep in the suburbs which makes commuting from the outer rings more feasible.

What’s insane about it? People make their choices in a reasoned manner. If they want a larger home they can choose to have a longer commute. Unlike most Canadians who increasingly don’t have that choice and are herded into urban sky hovels thanks to virtue signalling governments who won’t invest in the infrastructure needed for that.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by lio45

Except that it’s the opposite with Toronto nowadays: talented, ambitious young people move away, while the only reason the population isn’t going down is the influx of desperate Indentured Servants (who can tolerate the low wages and poor living conditions.)

The immigrant population moving to Toronto is far more talent an ambitious than the multi-generational Canadian born population that's moving out in my experience. hence my comment that Toronto attract far more of these people than it looses.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

The only “recent” large companies that I can think of that were founded in specifically Toronto are EQ Bank, GFL, Thomson Reuters, RBI, Rogers, and Constellation Software. This group isn’t insignificant, but it still isn’t that much when it comes to our largest companies. Another big one was ATI but that was purchased by AMD almost 20 years ago so it doesn’t really count.

We have had way more large companies come out of Montreal and Calgary historically. Most of our modern tech companies have also been centred on Ottawa/Waterloo area.

Not "recent" of course, but you could probably count Brookfield too, even if some of the constituent Brazilian parts were started earlier/elsewhere.

[LuluBobo]

Originally Posted by Build.It

It would actually be interesting to see intraprovincial migration to/from the GTA broken down by background ... first gen, second gen, nth gen immigrants, etc.

It's anecdotal of course, but I've noticed the majority of people moving here from Toronto are non-white. But the majority of people moving here from non-Toronto Ontario are white.

[ericmacm]

Originally Posted by jonny24

Not "recent" of course, but you could probably count Brookfield too, even if some of the constituent Brazilian parts were started earlier/elsewhere.

I excluded Brookfield, Weston/Loblaws, and TD because they are all over 100 years old. Brookfield is definitely an odd one with being mostly Brazil-focused during much of its early years, but still operated within the Canadian hydroelectric industry in the 1910s. Funny enough, TD itself has partial origins in London, where Canada Trust was also founded over 100 years ago (originally Huron and Erie-Canada Trust), and eventually got bought by TD in 2000.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Build.It

It would actually be interesting to see intraprovincial migration to/from the GTA broken down by background ... first gen, second gen, nth gen immigrants, etc.

The working hypothesis stated above implies that those skipping town for Edmonton, Moncton, etc are disproportionately likely to be multi-gen WASP Canadians.

On face value it might be true. Toronto is a harsh place to make it in, but for those that work hard they can live very well and make more money here than anywhere else in Canada (which was one of my top reasons for returning from AB). Immigrants (and 2nd gen) tend to work harder than their multi-gen counterparts, and so you could make a case that they're more likely to thrive here and are therefore not the ones leaving for that reason.

1st gen, and 2nd gen to a lesser extent, are also probably a bit more hesitant to move to a place where the population is mostly multi-gen. Not necessarily because of a fear of racism or anything like that but simply because multicultural amenities are lacking. Kingston for example has a lot fewer choices for things like ethnic supermarkets than the GTA would.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by niwell

Ehhhh I know people who do hiring at various companies in the financial, tech and legal sectors and there isn't really an issue attracting young talent in Toronto. These areas pay well even with cost increases and Toronto is generally where you want to be if you want to advance your career, at least in Anglo Canada. The big issue arises for those in more middle-income professional careers that decide to have a family, and of course those in the service sector. Tale of two cities thing I've brought up many times.

Toronto's competitors are not other Canadian cities, it's the world's pre-eminent tech and financial hubs like Silicon Valley, NYC, London, Singapore, Dublin, Sydney etc. In this respect Toronto is clearly struggling, because the tech giants aren't building their A-Teams in Toronto, and Toronto has failed to build any momentum in global finance post-Brexit, even though NYC keeps gunning ahead.

In tech, the cream of the cream of Waterloo IT graduates are still relocating permanently to Silicon Valley and Seattle for co-op and/or post-graduation, and the wave of returnees have died off completely after a short spurt in the mid-2010s.