LeBreton Flats 2.0 (RendezVous LeBreton) | Cancelled

[YOWflier]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

Anyone with this belief knows very little or nothing about NHL governance, relocation procedures, expansion procedures, and the the fees corresponding to each.

Wake me up when I should become afraid.

Why take my word for it when you can hear from one of the most respected names in hockey (Bob Mckenzie):

Worth five minutes of time.

https://www.tsn.ca/video/mckenzie-i-would-think-bettman-would-have-a-word-with-melnyk~1287311

[acottawa]

Except there have been five relocations under Mr. Bettman's watch, the most recent in 2011, where the relocation fee was $60M. And the hurricanes were sold to a Texas-based group a few days ago (seen by many as a precursor to a relocation).

[YOWflier]

"So you're telling me there's a chance."

- Lloyd Christmas, Dumb and Dumber

[Acajack]

Anyway, some people do seem to have the absolute worst sense of timing.

Talk about a party-pooper.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

"So you're telling me there's a chance."

- Lloyd Christmas, Dumb and Dumber

Yes, one in six odds (probably about 1 in 3 among the low revenue teams) are exactly the same as one in a million odds. You must like lottery tickets.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Yes, one in six odds (probably about 1 in 3 among the low revenue teams) are exactly the same as one in a million odds. You must like lottery tickets.

So you are saying that since 5 of the current 31 teams have relocated in the almost 25 years Bettman has been NHL commissioner, there is a one in six chance that the Sens will relocate in the next 25 years?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

So you are saying that since 5 of the current 31 teams have relocated in the almost 25 years Bettman has been NHL commissioner, there is a one in six chance that the Sens will relocate in the next 25 years?

No, I am saying there is a 1 in 6 chance of a team relocating under Bettman's commissioner-ship (out of 30 teams that existed before this season: Hartford to Carolina, Winnipeg to Arizona, Atlanta to Winnipeg, Minnesota to Dallas and Quebec to Colorado). I made this point to question the view that Bettman won't let teams relocate. He won't let teams game the system by moving to a low-value location to a high-value location (as Jim Balsillie kept finding out) but he has not had a particular aversion to relocations in general.

[ars]

Originally Posted by acottawa

No, I am saying there is a 1 in 6 chance of a team relocating under Bettman's commissioner-ship (out of 30 teams that existed before this season: Hartford to Carolina, Winnipeg to Arizona, Atlanta to Winnipeg, Minnesota to Dallas and Quebec to Colorado). I made this point to question the view that Bettman won't let teams relocate. He won't let teams game the system by moving to a low-value location to a high-value location (as Jim Balsillie kept finding out) but he has not had a particular aversion to relocations in general.

I don't think that's how odds work... but anyways, Bettman is on record saying that the relocations that happened early in his career as commissioner are his biggest regrets. The MO of the NHL in the last decade and a half has been to put priority on finding a buyer to keep the team where it is, I don't think the Sens are in danger of moving, especially with some of the external factors that are playing a role in the state of the team.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by ars

Bettman is on record saying that the relocations that happened early in his career as commissioner are his biggest regrets.

Interesting. So if you look at the Timeline:

• 1993 - Bettman appointed Commissioner
• 1993 - Minnesota to Dallas
• 1995 - Quebec to Colorado
• 1996 - Winnipeg to Phoenix
• 1997 - Hartford to Carolina
• 2011 - Atlanta to Winnipeg

So 4 relocations in the first 5 years and only 1 in the next 20. Changes the odds a bit.

I'm not saying that it is impossible that the Sens will relocate, but it isn't probable as some are making it out.

[rocketphish]

With LeBreton bargaining at critical point, take Melnyk's complaints in stride

David Reevely, Ottawa Citizen
Published on: December 18, 2017 | Last Updated: December 18, 2017 5:25 PM EST

Manipulating Ottawans into telling the National Capital Commission to give Eugene Melnyk whatever he wants because we’re terrified of losing the Senators is a ploy.

It’s Trumpian in its sophistication.

That’s the way to interpret Melnyk’s complaining about the scant attendance at his Ottawa Senators’ games and his musing that he might just walk away from the LeBreton deal with the NCC and build a new rink somewhere else. Maybe in Ottawa, maybe some other city.

The NCC is expecting a “milestone meeting” in January on the deal for the NCC’s LeBreton Flats land, in which Melnyk’s “RendezVous LeBreton” group is the preferred bidder. The parties have been in secretive negotiations for more than a year, since the commission decided a preliminary bid from RendezVous LeBreton was more appealing than one from Devcore Canderel DLS. The second bid is officially still there, in abeyance.

Redeveloping LeBreton Flats is a multibillion-dollar, decades-long project, the biggest deal Melnyk or the NCC has ever done. Just cleaning up the contaminated soil is a $200-million affair, never mind building anything on it. A couple of percentage points this way or that is very much worth fighting over.

“If it doesn’t look good here, it could look very, very nice somewhere else, but I’m not suggesting that right now,” Melnyk said Friday, obviously suggesting that right now. He went off on the struggle to sell tickets, even when the Senators are in the playoffs, and questioned aloud whether it makes sense to move downtown from Kanata at all, undermining the whole rationale for his LeBreton Flats bid.

The commission is taking Melnyk’s outburst in stride, at least publicly.

“The National Capital Commission and RendezVous LeBreton Group remain fully engaged in formal negotiations regarding the group’s proposal for LeBreton Flats,” spokesman Jean Wolff said by email. “These complex discussions are advancing with the goal of concluding this phase of the negotiations by the end of the year. The results will go to the NCC’s board of directors in January for decisions regarding next steps.”

Melnyk’s a swashbuckler, a guy who speaks his mind and trusts his instincts, even if his mind changes or his instincts aren’t sound. It’s made him very, very rich. He saved the Senators when the franchise was in peril. He’s donated tons of money to charity. At LeBreton Flats, he’s on his third major proposal to build something new and big in Ottawa after city council ruled him out of a pro soccer franchise and a casino. That’s stubbornness and some vanity, both of which have benefited this city.

His mode of leadership has also gotten him sanctioned by securities regulators for misbehaviour at the helm of his former pharmaceutical company; sued for wrongful dismissal by the Senators’ former top marketer after a corner-office slaughter that also took out local hero Cyril Leeder; and blamed for the departures of fan-favourite players such as Daniel Alfredsson and Kyle Turris and next maybe Erik Karlsson. The guy is not subtle.

That’s the Melnyk package, though. We might wish the guy who controls Ottawa’s one top-tier sports franchise were less impulsive, less likely to offend, not the kind of person to wonder in a late-night tweet when Bill O’Reilly will be back blathering right-wing talking points on television. But if he were, he might not have gotten rich enough to buy the Senators, or been inclined to sink so much of his own money into a small-market team with some big challenges.

If you’re a Senators fan, having the team owner dump on you for not buying enough $100 tickets, $20 parking passes and $10 beers isn’t much fun. Hearing him threaten to slash the player budget or maybe just up and move is worse. It feeds all the fears that come from having come to love a team that’s ultimately a business owned by a guy who doesn’t live here.

Your team wants you to love it, benefits from your love, but no matter what you do, it does not love you back any more than Amazon does.

In Calgary, the Flames tried pushing Mayor Naheed Nenshi around. He doesn’t want to sink a pile of public money into the new arena the team wants, and the Flames all but campaigned against him as he faced re-election this fall. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman even showed up to denigrate him in public. Voters picked Nenshi.

A deal that brings the Senators downtown is in everyone’s interest but not at absolutely any cost. We as the owners of the land, and the NCC as our representatives in this negotiation, have to take the prospect of a broken-down deal seriously without overreacting to it in either direction, either by giving away the store or by blowing Melnyk off and leaving him no choice but to live up to his threats.

Melnyk’s mouth-shooting suggests the National Capital Commission is driving a hard bargain over the Flats, and that’s great from any other perspective. The commission is selling this public jewel for mixed public and private benefit and we want as much out of Melnyk’s RendezVous LeBreton as we can get without sinking the deal. If Melnyk were overjoyed with how negotiations were going, the NCC would be doing something wrong.

[email protected]
twitter.com/davidreevely

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columni...-point-take-melnyks-complaints-in-stride

[YOWflier]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Yes, one in six odds (probably about 1 in 3 among the low revenue teams) are exactly the same as one in a million odds. You must like lottery tickets.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Those relocations are very front end loaded and as already mentioned by ars and roger, the league has shifted its approach to this topic by maintaining existing franchises in their locations and finding new owners. Melnyk should be careful he doesn't find help he didn't ask for on this.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Interesting. So if you look at the Timeline:

• 1993 - Bettman appointed Commissioner
• 1993 - Minnesota to Dallas
• 1995 - Quebec to Colorado
• 1996 - Winnipeg to Phoenix
• 1997 - Hartford to Carolina
• 2011 - Atlanta to Winnipeg

So 4 relocations in the first 5 years and only 1 in the next 20. Changes the odds a bit.

I'm not saying that it is impossible that the Sens will relocate, but it isn't probable as some are making it out.

An even that relocation list speaks more to the NHL strategy in the 1990s of expanding into the US sunbelt, something that lost its dazzle quite quickly as most of the Sunbelt teams have had difficulty surviving. So aside from that 1990s era abandoned strategy, the Atlanta relocation is the sole one in Bettman's tenure.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

An even that relocation list speaks more to the NHL strategy in the 1990s of expanding into the US sunbelt, something that lost its dazzle quite quickly as most of the Sunbelt teams have had difficulty surviving. So aside from that 1990s era abandoned strategy, the Atlanta relocation is the sole one in Bettman's tenure.

Also because local governments took relocation threats (or actual relocations) seriously and supported arenas for small market franchises (Pittsburgh, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Minnesota, Quebec).

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by acottawa

No, I am saying there is a 1 in 6 chance of a team relocating under Bettman's commissioner-ship (out of 30 teams that existed before this season: Hartford to Carolina, Winnipeg to Arizona, Atlanta to Winnipeg, Minnesota to Dallas and Quebec to Colorado). I made this point to question the view that Bettman won't let teams relocate. He won't let teams game the system by moving to a low-value location to a high-value location (as Jim Balsillie kept finding out) but he has not had a particular aversion to relocations in general.

Minnesota's relocation was confirmed prior to Bettman being Commissioner, IIRC.

Bettman doesn't make the decisions - the Board of Govenrors (owners) do. Bettman is literally just their spokesperson. He can perhaps guide discussions a certain way but he doesn't craft anything on their own. It was the BoG who wanted more market coverage in the US for better TV deals, and it was the BoG that ultimately approved of those franchises relocating.

Relocations are to be avoided because they lower the stability (and therefore value) of existing franchises.

The NHL has gone above and beyond to ensure many franchises (Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Ottawa, Arizona, Carolina, Calgary, Edmonton) have remained in their current markets over the past twenty years. Only in situations where there is absolutely no other option (Quebec, Atlanta, Hartford) are teams moved. In those cases, there was no owner and no suitable arena, and Quebec's flirting with separation was too much for the NHL to deal with (along with owner and arena and Canadian dollar).

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

An even that relocation list speaks more to the NHL strategy in the 1990s of expanding into the US sunbelt, something that lost its dazzle quite quickly as most of the Sunbelt teams have had difficulty surviving. So aside from that 1990s era abandoned strategy, the Atlanta relocation is the sole one in Bettman's tenure.

Difficulty surviving? Tampa, Anaheim, Nashville, Dallas are all absolutely solid franchises. Of all of the expansion teams only Atlanta didn't work out - the rest remain.

None of this even includes the NHL's expansion into Columbus and re-entry into Minnesota and Winnipeg, three markets that have all been fantastic for the league.

In terms of Ottawa, Melnyk is trying to get maximum exposure for his whining for an arena by doing it before one of the biggest games in Senators' franchise history. It's a disgusting move and one that should be met with disgust.

[J.OT13]

Thanks for this, awesome work. I've added three events in bold.

Originally Posted by ars

Using HockeyDB's numbers here: http://www.hockeydb.com/nhl-attendance/att_graph.php?tmi=7328

I put together a list of all the Sens seasons, their attendance, their rank in the league in terms of attendance numbers and the result of the season.

92-93 10485 22/24 Missed Playoffs
93-94 10300 26/26 Missed Playoffs
94-95 9879 26/26 Missed Playoffs
95-96 13252 22/26 Missed Playoffs
96-97 15377 22/26 Quarterfinal
97-98 16750 12/26 Semifinal
98-99 17219 10/27 Quarterfinal
99-00 17508 9/28 Quarterfinal
00-01 17793 10/30 Quarterfinal
01-02 16919 15/30 Semifinal
02-03 17198 14/30 East Final
03-04 17758 13/30 Quarterfinal
05-06 19474 5/30 Semifinal
06-07 19372 5/30 SC Final
07-08 19821 3/30 Quarterfinal
08-09 18949 7/30 Missed Playoffs
09-10 18269 12/30 Quarterfinal
10-11 18378 11/30 Missed Playoffs
11-12 19356 6/30 Quarterfinal
12-13 19408 6/30 Semifinal
13-14 18109 14/30 Missed Playoffs
14-15 18247 16/30 Semifinal
15-16 18085 17/30 Missed Playoffs
16-17 16744 21/30 East Final
17-18 15228 26/31

Some key events that may have affected attendance and/or team spending(if you see anything I missed, feel free to let me know):

October 8, 1992 - Sens play their first game in the NHL at the Ottawa Civic Center(~10k capacity)
1993 - Rod Bryden becomes Chairman and Governor
January 17, 1996 - Sens play their first game at the Corel Center(now CTC)
02-03 - Owner Rod Bryden plagued with bankruptcy concerns
August 26, 2003 - Eugene Melnyk purchases the team and the arena
June 30, 2007 - Eugene Melnyk retires as Chairman and CEO of Biovail
December 1, 2010 - Eugene Melnyk starts divorce proceedings(Divorced with his wife shortly thereafter)
13-14 - Alfredsson signs with the Red Wings
Spring 2015 - Melnyk's liver transplant
December 2015 - LeBreton Flats proposals, including Rendez-Vous Lebreton's (RVL) Ice district type concept, revealed
February 24, 2016 - Phoenix Pay System goes live
November 2016 - RVL chosen as preferred bidder

Just looking at the attendance numbers, Ottawa is a fairly strong market and were in the top half of the league's attendance for 15 seasons straight. The past couple of seasons have been an anomaly since attendance numbers really haven't been this bad since the 96-97 season, and it really does coincide with the introduction of the Phoenix Pay System.

It doesn't help that the team has been really inconsistent for the better part of a decade now. Since the SC finals appearance, they've made the playoffs in consecutive years only once.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by eltodesukane

Why not a station right at the arena?

We are building an event platform for a field off Moodie Drive that will see about 1000 riders a year. Maybe we should be an event platform for an arena that will see 1 million riders a year!

Kitchissippi brings a good point. By having the arena between two stations, it disperses the crowd, making the stations less crowded and therefore safer. It also makes people walk by restaurants and stores encouraging them to stop and spend more money.

Based on the renderings, I feel like they might be planning a pedestrian tunnel, parallel to the O-Train tracks, between Pimisi and a the west end of the arena.

Originally Posted by Buggys

It's probably because football at Lansdowne​ has taken up a chunk of people's yearly budgets in the last 2-3 years. The potential move to Lebreton is probably one the last straws, until the move actually happens.

I don't think that's a factor. Football is only 8 games a year and tickets are much cheaper. It's not as big of a commitment as hockey.
As far as I can tell, the Fury isn't a wild success. Both are mostly in the hockey off season.

The 67's have also been suffering, possibly because fans didn't come back after they returned to the Civic Center from the CTC or, maybe Phoenix has something to do with it too.

Originally Posted by daud

They do not have a market problem. Just an owner that stubbornly thinks so. He has not liked this city for a long time. He has openly insulted the mayor and councillor Steve Desroches on Toronto Radio, seems to despise OSEG, and continues to threaten the fans.

Melnyk's shouldn't be bashing the fan base, especially since Phoenix, which is not our fault, is likely a huge factor in the attendance issue. And, the Pheonix issue is temporary (couple years, then we'll be back on top in terms of attendance).

In his defense, the City royally screwed him over twice, with both ignoring his Soccer pitch and refusing to let him bid for a casino. OSEG is just collateral damage.

[ars]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Thanks for this, awesome work. I've added three events in bold.

Good catch, I totally forgot about the Rendezvous announcement.

I wonder how much truth there is to the notion that Kanata-based Sens fans are avoiding going to the games in protest of the Lebreton move since the fall in attendance also coincides with the Rendezvous announcement.

Melnyk did specifically mention that the team might be staying in Kanata for good, was that to appease that portion of the fanbase?

[HighwayStar]

Originally Posted by ars

Good catch, I totally forgot about the Rendezvous announcement.

I wonder how much truth there is to the notion that Kanata-based Sens fans are avoiding going to the games in protest of the Lebreton move since the fall in attendance also coincides with the Rendezvous announcement.

Melnyk did specifically mention that the team might be staying in Kanata for good, was that to appease that portion of the fanbase?

In which case we should push the NHL for an expansion franchise to represent Ottawa at LeBreton against the Kanata Senators

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by JHikka

The NHL has gone above and beyond to ensure many franchises (Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Ottawa, Arizona, Carolina, Calgary, Edmonton) have remained in their current markets over the past twenty years. Only in situations where there is absolutely no other option (Quebec, Atlanta, Hartford) are teams moved. In those cases, there was no owner and no suitable arena, and Quebec's flirting with separation was too much for the NHL to deal with (along with owner and arena and Canadian dollar).

In most of those cases the threat of relocation was dropped once local taxpayers agreed to pony up for a new arena, so I wouldn't say that the NHL was going above and beyond. The only case where the league has gone above and beyond is Arizona, where it even bought the team (a strategy that has been mysterious to most observers).

The thing is there are only really 4 things the league could conclude looking at the current situation.

Melnyk is cooking the books (the phil235 theory). The team is actually profitable but Melnyk has been bleeding the team for other ventures. If this was the case then the league has no incentive to allow a relocation (and every incentive to push him out).

Melnyk is not spending enough (the ac888yow theory). The team is not profitable, but if Melnyk put a lot more money into the team the fans would come back and it would be profitable. If this is the case the league needs to determine whether any of the mystery buyers are willing to make such an investment. Otherwise relocation would probably still be on the table.

Melnyk is incompetent (this seems to be the prevailing theory among the twitter fanboys). The team should be profitable given the Ottawa market conditions, but Melnyk has fired/hired the wrong people, or forced the team management to do the wrong things. If this is the case then the league has to decide whether any of the mystery buyers would be more competent, otherwise it would have to facilitate the sale to an out of town buyer or take over the team (as they did in Arizona).

This is an Ottawa problem Given the small private sector, small market, frugal public servants, the small hinterland, etc. it is not possible to have a profitable hockey team in Ottawa. The league then needs to determine a) whether local government is willing to kick in to keep the team (as they did for the redblacks and most small-market NHL cities have done) or b) whether one of the mystery owners is willing to accept indefinite loses (as a loss leader for something else, perhaps). If neither of these are the case then relocation is probably likely at some point.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by ars

I wonder how much truth there is to the notion that Kanata-based Sens fans are avoiding going to the games in protest of the Lebreton move since the fall in attendance also coincides with the Rendezvous announcement.

I don't think the Kanata fanbase are avoiding going to games in protest. It is likely fans further east are waiting for the team to relocate before going to games again.

From the people I have talked to in Kanata, many do say they will stop going to games once the team moves though. When push comes to shove, I don't know if they will follow through. The wildcard is how LRT will affect things, especially if the Kanata extension is built sooner than later.

Originally Posted by acottawa

The thing is there are only really 4 things the league could conclude looking at the current situation.

Melnyk is cooking the books (the phil235 theory). The team is actually profitable but Melnyk has been bleeding the team for other ventures. If this was the case then the league has no incentive to allow a relocation (and every incentive to push him out).

Melnyk is not spending enough (the ac888yow theory). The team is not profitable, but if Melnyk put a lot more money into the team the fans would come back and it would be profitable. If this is the case the league needs to determine whether any of the mystery buyers are willing to make such an investment. Otherwise relocation would probably still be on the table.

Melnyk is incompetent (this seems to be the prevailing theory among the twitter fanboys). The team should be profitable given the Ottawa market conditions, but Melnyk has fired/hired the wrong people, or forced the team management to do the wrong things. If this is the case then the league has to decide whether any of the mystery buyers would be more competent, otherwise it would have to facilitate the sale to an out of town buyer or take over the team (as they did in Arizona).

This is an Ottawa problem Given the small private sector, small market, frugal public servants, the small hinterland, etc. it is not possible to have a profitable hockey team in Ottawa. The league then needs to determine a) whether local government is willing to kick in to keep the team (as they did for the redblacks and most small-market NHL cities have done) or b) whether one of the mystery owners is willing to accept indefinite loses (as a loss leader for something else, perhaps). If neither of these are the case then relocation is probably likely at some point.

I can think of one more:

The Arena Location Sucks Having an arena in the far west end and not near any of the bridges to Quebec seriously limits their access to fans. I would argue that only 1/4 of the region's population are within a reasonable distance of the Arena for attending games regularly. Even if they loose all of their Kanata fans, the upside potential of a much larger potential market will mean short term pain for long term gain. Any owner would benefit from this.