Saskatoon and Regina Air Service

[EDM753Fan]

Is there any news of US flights out of YQR? I'd be beyond thrilled with 1 x Daily DL service to MSP, even?

[kalin_10]

Originally Posted by EDM753Fan

Is there any news of US flights out of YQR? I'd be beyond thrilled with 1 x Daily DL service to MSP, even?

I don't anticipate any movement on additional international flights from either airport this year or even next. The hub model is working great for the duopoly; to even see additional/new domestic routes are out of the question. With the introduction of the Cseries aircraft, i see more of an indication upscaling the aircrafts vs new routes. We are stuck at status quo

[PhotoJim]

Originally Posted by kalin_10

I don't anticipate any movement on additional international flights from either airport this year or even next. The hub model is working great for the duopoly; to even see additional/new domestic routes are out of the question. With the introduction of the Cseries aircraft, i see more of an indication upscaling the aircrafts vs new routes. We are stuck at status quo

I assume you mean the Air Canada/WestJet duopoly?

Air Canada will never give Regina US flights (unless one day Regina is big enough to justify, in AC's mind, Rouge flights to hot holiday destinations, but that day is probably decades away). But United, Delta, American or Alaska might.

WestJet could increase frequency, or make some of our routes (particularly YQR-LAS) year-round instead of seasonal, if demand continues to grow.

But I've heard nothing concrete and fear that any movement in this direction could be years away, too. Then again, when we got United about ten years ago or so, it was quite sudden and out-of-the-blue, too.

[EDM753Fan]

Originally Posted by PhotoJim

I assume you mean the Air Canada/WestJet duopoly?

Air Canada will never give Regina US flights (unless one day Regina is big enough to justify, in AC's mind, Rouge flights to hot holiday destinations, but that day is probably decades away). But United, Delta, American or Alaska might.

I've been in the pacific NW for a few days, a week or so back and they have so much service to places smaller than YQR via United at SFO or Alaska at SEA and PDX. A DL to MSP, UA to DEN or AS to SEA would be perfect. SEA is realistically a long shot as Alaska isn't near as large as the other two, but hey - beggars can't be choosers....

.... all I know is getting to the Western and Midwest US is an absolute pain right now via YYC or YVR.

[one_brick_at_a_time]

Originally Posted by EDM753Fan

I've been in the pacific NW for a few days, a week or so back and they have so much service to places smaller than YQR via United at SFO or Alaska at SEA and PDX. A DL to MSP, UA to DEN or AS to SEA would be perfect. SEA is realistically a long shot as Alaska isn't near as large as the other two, but hey - beggars can't be choosers....

.... all I know is getting to the Western and Midwest US is an absolute pain right now via YYC or YVR.

Alaska Airlines from Regina to Seattle would be amazing!

[casper]

Originally Posted by PhotoJim

I assume you mean the Air Canada/WestJet duopoly?

Air Canada will never give Regina US flights (unless one day Regina is big enough to justify, in AC's mind, Rouge flights to hot holiday destinations, but that day is probably decades away). But United, Delta, American or Alaska might.

WestJet could increase frequency, or make some of our routes (particularly YQR-LAS) year-round instead of seasonal, if demand continues to grow.

But I've heard nothing concrete and fear that any movement in this direction could be years away, too. Then again, when we got United about ten years ago or so, it was quite sudden and out-of-the-blue, too.

Realistically Air Canada and United have been code sharing for a long time and will eventually go down the path of operating transboarder as a joint venture.

WestJet and Delta are trying to get their joint venture approved.

I think it is not realistic to expect much in the way of cross boarder expansion. Alaska is a very different beast.

[PhotoJim]

Originally Posted by EDM753Fan

I've been in the pacific NW for a few days, a week or so back and they have so much service to places smaller than YQR via United at SFO or Alaska at SEA and PDX. A DL to MSP, UA to DEN or AS to SEA would be perfect. SEA is realistically a long shot as Alaska isn't near as large as the other two, but hey - beggars can't be choosers....

.... all I know is getting to the Western and Midwest US is an absolute pain right now via YYC or YVR.

The US subsidizes air service at its small airports, which is why those flights exist. United makes more money flying 2/3-full jets into ISN (Williston, ND) or MOT (Minot, ND) as it does flying full jets into YQR or YXE.

[Missinglink]

Originally Posted by PhotoJim

The US subsidizes air service at its small airports, which is why those flights exist. United makes more money flying 2/3-full jets into ISN (Williston, ND) or MOT (Minot, ND) as it does flying full jets into YQR or YXE.

And they don't have to put up with all the BS at YQR or their outrageous fees.

[jigglysquishy]

Originally Posted by Missinglink

And they don't have to put up with all the BS at YQR or their outrageous fees.

You're basically saying the same thing. YQR has to essentially be run as a for profit business. They don't get any tax dollars. Small American airports receive subsidies into the 30-50% range.

YQR fees are basically the cost of doing business.

[roryn1]

Originally Posted by jigglysquishy

You're basically saying the same thing. YQR has to essentially be run as a for profit business. They don't get any tax dollars. Small American airports receive subsidies into the 30-50% range.

YQR fees are basically the cost of doing business.

Do you have a source on the 30-50% range for small airport subsidies? It blows my mind how great Allegiant does in North Dakota - a tiny state with declining population - and the leg space - amazing!

https://airlinegeeks.com/2019/02/15/...eaper-flights/

[Draftsman]

Originally Posted by Missinglink

And they don't have to put up with all the BS at YQR or their outrageous fees.

Are the fees outrageous at YQR? How do they compare to other Canadian airports?

[roryn1]

Wow so I did some digging and it is wild.

Airlines receive on average $200 per passenger when flying out of unsustainable airports in America as long as they're 340km's away from the nearest national airport. It's called the Essential Air Services Act that was started in 1978. Trump proposes to cut the $250M program by 30 million this year alone.

That would be a huge blow to North Dakotan airports, but great for our Regina flights that are losing out to them. My folks in Yorkton rarely take Regina when Minot is only a couple more hrs away for 1/4 the price. Now we know why it's 1/4 the price...

[PhotoJim]

Originally Posted by roryn1

Do you have a source on the 30-50% range for small airport subsidies? It blows my mind how great Allegiant does in North Dakota - a tiny state with declining population.../[/url]

1990 - 638,800
2010 - 642,200
2018 (est) - 760,077

So definitely not declining long-term.

[Nathan]

Originally Posted by PhotoJim

1990 - 638,800
2010 - 642,200
2018 (est) - 760,077

So definitely not declining long-term.

The recent increase would be a result of the shale boom.

[roryn1]

Originally Posted by PhotoJim

1990 - 638,800
2010 - 642,200
2018 (est) - 760,077

So definitely not declining long-term.

Their passenger amounts peaked in 2016 and have been declining since. Minot’s population has gone down ~1,000 people the last 3 years. The reason is that oil activity is moving from the Bakken in S Sask and North Dakota to the Permian’s newly found reserves in Texas that are both closer to refineries and easier to extract oil.

"Minot boardings soared from 90,823 in 2010 to 150,450 in 2011 before peaking at 224,421 in 2012. Boardings began a gradual decline in 2015 after oil activity slowed."
- http://www.minotdailynews.com/news/l...-boardings-up/

"The estimated 47,822 residents as of July 2017 still is about 17 percent more than the 40,888 residents officially recorded in the 2010 census. However, it is down nearly 3.6 percent from the estimated peak of 49,596 residents in July 2015 and down by 922 residents, or 1.9 percent, from the July 2017 estimate. The slight uptick in population loss last year comes as oil activity continues to lag beyond what it once was."
http://www.minotdailynews.com/news/l...pulation-dips/

I'm not here to rip on North Dakota, but these Allegiant flight subsidies definitely hurt Regina's chances of ever getting regular US flights back again - and we're not the ones seeing population decline. The subsidies are killin Regina!

[PhotoJim]

Originally Posted by roryn1

I'm not here to rip on North Dakota, but these Allegiant flight subsidies definitely hurt Regina's chances of ever getting regular US flights back again - and we're not the ones seeing population decline. The subsidies are killin Regina!

It hurts us for air travel options. But let's be real: if the US government wants to subsidize Saskatchewan vacationers on the US taxpayer dime, that actually is good for us.

[roryn1]

Originally Posted by PhotoJim

It hurts us for air travel options. But let's be real: if the US government wants to subsidize Saskatchewan vacationers on the US taxpayer dime, that actually is good for us.

My annual Vegas expenditures that don’t go back into the province say otherwise lol

[PhotoJim]

Originally Posted by roryn1

My annual Vegas expenditures that don’t go back into the province say otherwise lol

If we had cheaper non-stops from Regina to Las Vegas, are you saying you'd spend less money there than you do now?

[roryn1]

Originally Posted by PhotoJim

If we had cheaper non-stops from Regina to Las Vegas, are you saying you'd spend less money there than you do now?

Right now we have less direct flights to vegas both in Saskatoon and Regina than 40,000 person Minot ND.

Currently:

Minot to Phoenix
Mon, Wed, Thurs, Sat

Saskatoon/Regina to Phoenix
Mon, Wed, Saturday


It's hurting Regina's airport a ton, we have a farther distance from other airports, insanely more population both in our city and the distance around, and higher disposable earnings. Specifically Regina, is losing out on probably a million less passengers from Minot's subsidy. With a dollar at 70 cents, americans along the border should be coming up here to fly south - but the subsidy is greater than a 30% difference in currency...

[Hawker]

Originally Posted by roryn1

Right now we have less direct flights to vegas both in Saskatoon and Regina than 40,000 person Minot ND.

Currently:

Minot to Phoenix
Mon, Wed, Thurs, Sat

Saskatoon/Regina to Phoenix
Mon, Wed, Saturday


It's hurting Regina's airport a ton, we have a farther distance from other airports, insanely more population both in our city and the distance around, and higher disposable earnings. Specifically Regina, is losing out on probably a million less passengers from Minot's subsidy. With a dollar at 70 cents, americans along the border should be coming up here to fly south - but the subsidy is greater than a 30% difference in currency...

So much hyperbole and misinformation in this:

-The Essential Air service subsidises small community's air services. However, this subsudy is to the nearest major airport. Three ND airports have subsudised flight with over 10 million paid out, but these flights are to Denver, not to Vegas, and most importantly they are not from Minot. Therefore, no subsidy. More information here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essent...cluding_Alaska
https://cms.dot.gov/sites/dot.gov/fi...HI_Oct2016.pdf

-Regina is losing a million pax from Minot? Pretty tough when there was only 151,658 boardings at Minot International last year. (So lets say total passengers is double that, to 303k) And of those 303k, half go to MSP. Total going to Vegas and Mesa International was about 41K. (So total pax both ways of 82k) More info on that here:
http://www.minotdailynews.com/news/l...-boardings-up/
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?pn=1

-As for folks driving north of the border to fly because of a cheaper Canadian dollar? I can't see anybody doing that regardless of the dollar, because it would mean having to cross an international border twice in order to go between two places in the USA.