Federal Government & Politics II

[someone123]

Originally Posted by theman23

You can make $90k a year and still be broke. That’s the whole point. Why is this suddenly an issue when we begin to use savings as a correlate for wealth but not when we use income?

It's actually easier to track property wealth than it is to track income. For example you could disqualify people who own millions in property from means-tested programs like free dentistry, deferred property taxes, or old-age security. Not sure how much of an impact this would have on the bottom line for these programs.

With housing being so broken and expensive right now it's really easy for people with the same income to have different living standards due to reasons they could not have controlled or foreseen, not just because of better or worse planning. This could be factored into means testing.

[thewave46]

Unfortunately, people are going to have to eat the tasty pile in order to see a return to more affordable housing writ large.

So yeah, there are people who are effectively broke despite pulling in bucks. It's somewhat more depressing that it's not the optional things (i.e. overspent on vehicles/toys/vacations) and they're going to lose the house. The danger is that if they've nowhere to land with affordable rent, they're going to lose the house and be hosed for getting back on their feet.

Carbon tax or dental plan is pretty much a rounding error when a mortgage eats up well into the five-figures of income. Nobody's losing the house because they didn't get subsidized teeth cleaning.

The dental plan and carbon tax are just convenient scapegoats that people can focus on as hero/demon aspects of a stale government. The reckoning in housing/household debt that accumulated over the past decade now comes to haunt us.

Guess we'll enjoy the hangover. I'm mostly curious as to how long until the real bite begins.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Nobody's losing the house because they didn't get subsidized teeth cleaning.

It is more that people either can't handle larger surprise dental bills or they skimp on dentistry because of money concerns and this leads to poor health in the long run. It's really horrible that some people can't have dentistry work done because they can't afford it.

$90k in income for a family is not much in an expensive Canadian city these days if you aren't wealthy. The average rent around here is pushing $3k. It must be tough for a couple of 2 x 45k earners to get by with kids.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Abacus finishing up another round of polling.

Take your guess, what's the big movement here?

a) Liberals with a large bounce (they were at 23% in their last poll, maybe rebounding up towards the high 20s?)

b) NDP have leapfrogged the Liberals for second place, and the difference is outside the margin of error.

c) CPC continuing to gain significant momentum, have eclipsed 45% (was at 42% in their last poll).

Just received a preview of their findings, with full report releasing tomorrow.

- Since their last poll, CPC have dropped 5% and LPC increased 4% in support.
- Liberals have regained their lead among 18-29 year olds
- Negative impressions of Pierre Poilievre have risen by 3 points in the past 2 weeks
- Liberals now lead in voters who desire change but are hesitant about alternatives
- Liberals are re-gaining support from past Liberal supporters.

CPC still have a 10% national advantage, but this is down from a 19% advantage as measured by the same agency on November 28th.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Just received a preview of their findings, with full report releasing tomorrow.

- Since their last poll, CPC have dropped 5% and LPC increased 4% in support.
- Liberals have regained their lead among 18-29 year olds
- Negative impressions of Pierre Poilievre have risen by 3 points in the past 2 weeks
- Liberals now lead in voters who desire change but are hesitant about alternatives
- Liberals are re-gaining support from past Liberal supporters.

CPC still have a 10% national advantage, but this is down from a 19% advantage as measured by the same agency on November 28th.

Looks like PP's gaffes the other week have had some impact.

[Marty_Mcfly]

It would appear so. This should be a warning sign to Pierre and the CPC that they're not home free just yet....folks may be tired of Trudeau and the Liberals, but he isn't free to do or say as he pleases and have folks blindly follow along.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Looks like PP's gaffes the other week have had some impact.

More importantly the mainstream media narrative that they are gaffes was correct and/or the mainstream media still have the ability to set the tone for those who matter to our elections. Or at least some of them.

[shreddog]

Or it could be a hiccup? Think we should wait for a couple more to establish a trend.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by someone123

It's actually easier to track property wealth than it is to track income. For example you could disqualify people who own millions in property from means-tested programs like free dentistry, deferred property taxes, or old-age security. Not sure how much of an impact this would have on the bottom line for these programs.

With housing being so broken and expensive right now it's really easy for people with the same income to have different living standards due to reasons they could not have controlled or foreseen, not just because of better or worse planning. This could be factored into means testing.

Possibly, but RRSP contributions are already directly reported to the CRA and wealthy low-income persons are more likely to withdraw from their savings to pay for dental care than take out a secured LOC or sell real estate. You would miss the people who own large real estate portfolios and corp their income like lio, but these are probably not that common. Either way, any of the potential downsides of using another metric to means test already apply to using income as this metric.

[SignalHillHiker]

We're recognizing 75 years of Confederation over the coming year. The main thing is a license plate.



There's also funding for 75 scholarships, community service awards, and that communities can apply for to host some sort of commemorative event.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

It would appear so. This should be a warning sign to Pierre and the CPC that they're not home free just yet....folks may be tired of Trudeau and the Liberals, but he isn't free to do or say as he pleases and have folks blindly follow along.

Tired of JT, yes.

Tired of the Liberals? There has to be a better option on the table. If the conservatives have any hope they have to have a alternative plan, not just some photo ops eating apples and marking catch lines. They still have not articulated what that vision is.

Playing with the carbon tax is not a plan to address climate change or affordability.

It is almost like the party leader is a marketing/communication guy. Oh wait, he is. Lets see the substance.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

Tired of the Liberals? There has to be a better option on the table. If the conservatives have any hope they have to have a alternative plan, not just some photo ops eating apples and marking catch lines. They still have not articulated what that vision is.

I don't think that is typically true in Canadian politics. The voters have rarely expected a plan form the opposition when turfing out an unpopular party.

Canadians elected "the budget will balance itself" and "China is the country I admire the most" when they were fed up with Harper.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by theman23

Possibly, but RRSP contributions are already directly reported to the CRA and wealthy low-income persons are more likely to withdraw from their savings to pay for dental care than take out a secured LOC or sell real estate. You would miss the people who own large real estate portfolios and corp their income like lio, but these are probably not that common. Either way, any of the potential downsides of using another metric to means test already apply to using income as this metric.

Both could be used: RRSP and property. I’d be tagged “destitute” on the first metric and “middle class” on the latter (as I have one personal residence to my name). The combination of the two would at least partially capture me (I’d likely have a middle class caliber copay, if both metrics were used, which is at least less ridiculous than having me qualify for all the poverty subsidies on the basis of yearly personal income as the one and only metric).

I doubt anyone with several million in real estate net worth would tolerate teeth problem due to “being illiquid”. They’d find a way.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Or it could be a hiccup? Think we should wait for a couple more to establish a trend.

Could be. They may have given the Liberals ammunition with all the things they voted against in the recent flilibuster. We'll also have to see what impact, if any, the dental plan generates.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

We're recognizing 75 years of Confederation over the coming year. The main thing is a license plate.

...

Demisesquicentennial. I had to look that up.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I don't think that is typically true in Canadian politics. The voters have rarely expected a plan form the opposition when turfing out an unpopular party.

Canadians elected "the budget will balance itself" and "China is the country I admire the most" when they were fed up with Harper.

The plan to let the budget balance itself and big spending promises was apparently responsible for the Liberals passing the NDP at which point as you say they became the default to turfing them out.

Harper had a modest and detailed platform in 2006. Certainly plans need to be a bit more realistic and costed than in the US. The Cons will get away with some unnamed cuts and efficiencies but if they stretch it to far they may get push back.

[Marshsparrow]

What a cheater Pierre is - guess it wasn't enough he cheated in Canadian elections, he did it to get the leadership...

https://crier.co/canadas-top-spy-age...adership-race/

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Demisesquicentennial. I had to look that up.

Half of 150 years.

I wonder if SHH has gotten out his black armband yet.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Looks like PP's gaffes the other week have had some impact.

Given that the shift seems to be limited mostly to people under age 30, I think the fact that the LPC is spending more time talking about housing is a making the bigger difference here. If it was about the gaffes I'd expect more of a shift among older people.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by casper

Tired of JT, yes.

Tired of the Liberals? There has to be a better option on the table. If the conservatives have any hope they have to have a alternative plan, not just some photo ops eating apples and marking catch lines. They still have not articulated what that vision is.

Playing with the carbon tax is not a plan to address climate change or affordability.

It is almost like the party leader is a marketing/communication guy. Oh wait, he is. Lets see the substance.

Doug Ford won in 2018 without even having a platform. When the electorate has decided it wants change, nothing else matters.

If the Liberals want a hail mary playbook, they need the one that needs to focus on creating an ambitious and visionary policy platform that addresses the concerns of today, so that voters don't want a change of government anymore.