Atlanta Community Discussion Thread

[Andrea]

Originally Posted by dante2308

The World Bank has summarily reclassified Jamaica as upper middle income and cut the aid :sad face:

Dante, I don't know anything about the Jamaican economy and have only visited as a tourist, but if things are going that well why is foreign aid needed?

[AtlMidtowner]

Originally Posted by Fiorenza

Any thoughts on this graphic

1) The choice of cities is meaningless, unless you are concerned only about one specific city. To understand if a given city is outside of the norm, you have to use proper statiscial analysis and see if the growth, or lack of growth is within one standard deviation of the mean of all metro areas (or a sample ) to calculate statistical significance. This chart without additional information doesnt tell me much other than that Atlanta has been doing disastrously in terms of real income growth (income calculated by deflating income from consumer price index).

2). Income growth less than Economic growth. The absolutely most striking thing is that not even one city has income growth even close to the growth of the economy as a whole in the USA. Of course, the chart doesnt show even how the cities where chosen, so this could be list of the 26 slowest growing cities nationwide.

By the way, this is a chart produced by the 4th District of the Fed, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The chart was spefically created to show that Cleveland and Philadelphia appear to be doing average, both cities are in the 4th District, and the economist writing the article wanted to pat his bosses on the back saying good work in the 4th district!! (my cynical view)

Why Atlanta has done so poorly is another question that should be analyzed. As Atlanta seems to be boomtown growthwise, it isnt so obvious why the real income has risen. Of course the mean real per capita income for Americans as whole, when accounting for inflation, has not risen since 1970. All economic growth has gone to the top 4% of Americans. (I will post that info on the political forum)

[smArTaLlone]

Originally Posted by AtlMidtowner

Why Atlanta has done so poorly is another question that should be analyzed. As Atlanta seems to be boomtown growthwise, it isnt so obvious why the real income has risen. Of course the mean real per capita income for Americans as whole, when accounting for inflation, has not risen since 1970. All economic growth has gone to the top 4% of Americans. (I will post that info on the political forum)

For one thing the 2001 recession was worse and the recovery was slower than average for Atlanta. According to the Atlanta Chamber of Commerce data (link) the area lost jobs two of those years and total employment showed a net gain of just 96,900 jobs from 2001 to 2006. In the same time period population growth continued and even accelerated a bit so its not surprising that per capita income fell.

[Fiorenza]

the area lost jobs two of those years and total employment showed a net gain of just 96,900 jobs from 2001 to 2006

There was a loss of quality jobs all over the Atlanta area. It was very noticeable here in Gwinnett with high-paying engineering and technical jobs going away. The Lucent fiber optic facility at I-85 and Jimmy Carter Blvd. employed 6300. Today there's a new facility owner and the number employed is probably less than 1000. Many other such cases occurred in Norcross, Duluth and Lawrenceville. Even as high-value-added employees moved on, the county continued to grow like gangbusters. As has been stated, the new arrivals are a much more diverse group, which is not really a negative....I for one think the county is far more interesting than a few years ago. I love Asian and Thai cuisine and now have several inexpensive Thai restaurants 5 minutes from my house. Anyway, I think the same economic trend would apply generally all over the area. Probably Alpharetta is the only municipality which would have seen quality workforce improvement, and I'm not even 100% sure about that.

[Rail Claimore]

I posted a possible explanation for Atlanta's per capita income decline in another thread:

I think large-scale immigration might have something to do with that. Only in the past 10 years has Atlanta seen a huge influx in Hispanics and Asians, whereas previously, it was mostly whites and blacks moving to the metro area (and they still are in relatively large numbers). In this sense, Atlanta is 10-20 years behind comparable cities like Houston and Dallas, which have seen such influxes since the 1980's on the scale Atlanta is now seeing. Things usually take time to balance out. I'd expect to see Atlanta back toward the right end of that chart some time next decade.

[dante2308]

Discuss

Georgia's per capita gross domestic product put it at 25th among the states in 2007, according to new estimates by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Georgia's per capita GDP rose to $35,265 in 2007, compared with $35,033 in 2006. The state's 2007 per capita GDP surpassed the Southeast's $33,623 in 2007

Atlanta is of course far ahead of it's state.

[dante2308]

Don't be fooled, we aren't falling behind by any measure.
http://www.demographia.com/db-gdp-metro.pdf

We can do worse than the 12th highest gdp in the developed world per capita. If only the rest of the world was like San Fransisco...

[Rail Claimore]

Well, Virginia really brings up the rest of the Southeast. Isn't that state in the top 10? Georgia is probably #2. Contrary to popular initial assumption, Florida is dragged down by the fixed incomes of many retirees.

[Fiorenza]

Dante,

The report is dated April 2007 but the chart shows metro Atlanta population as 4.7 million. That's probably 1 million too low. I'm wondering if they have a correct numerator and denominator.

Also, we're talking about the negative growth in per capita income, the trend - not the snapshot.

[dante2308]

Originally Posted by Fiorenza

Dante,

The report is dated April 2007 but the chart shows metro Atlanta population as 4.7 million. That's probably 1 million too low. I'm wondering if they have a correct numerator and denominator.

Also, we're talking about the negative growth in per capita income, the trend - not the snapshot.

The data is based on 2002

I find your own report suspect considering that Georgia's gdp per capita grew last year. You premise is also suspect considering that Atlanta averages better than the US average gdp per capita. It isn't the races that come to the city, it is merely the fact that Atlanta's job market isn't keeping up with the population growth. This is due to the need for new industry that just hasn't happened in the US.

Let us not forget that Atlanta grew the fastest during that time period. Perhaps if the government were supporting more entrepreneurship instead of class favoritism.

[Fiorenza]

Bottom line, according to the chart I posted, Atlanta has negative growth in income per capita since 2000, the worst showing in the country.

Perhaps if the government were supporting more entrepreneurship instead of class favoritism.

Interesting idea. How would you propose to do so without robbing Peter to pay Paul? Remember, policies that simply provide payola to your base special interest groups is not change we can believe in.

[Andrea]

Originally Posted by Fiorenza

Bottom line, according to the chart I posted, Atlanta has negative growth in income per capita since 2000, the worst showing in the country.

It would be interesting if there was a way to parse that data a little further. I have the impression that growth is uneven and some parts of metro Atlanta are doing better than others.

[dante2308]

Originally Posted by Andrea

Dante, I don't know anything about the Jamaican economy and have only visited as a tourist, but if things are going that well why is foreign aid needed?

Countries far better off get aid for their projects. We just don't have a lot of diplomatic clout and we are impatient about reaching first world status. The government starts projects so often that it is a burden on our national debt, but we cannot improve without them. We are constantly in the shadow of a massive superpower hovering to the north with huge standards of living and very advanced technology.

I was about to go into the reasons small island nations have unique difficulty developing and decided against it. Our mere ability to have the highest teledenisty in the hemisphere is a testament to our potential, but it is so expensive to compete for businesses as a middle income nation.

On teledensity:
101.8 cell phone subscriptions per 100 people (yes more than people)(2005)http://globaltechforum.eiu.com/index...ca&channelid=6
1,500,000 internet users as of April/07, 55% penetration rate, per ITU.http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/glean...business1.html

The US penetration rate is 70%. In 2000, it was 44%. In 2000, Jamaica was at 3%. When our nationwide wireless broadband comes online, then we will be ready. By the by, this creates a whole lot high paying jobs in the island.

[AtlMidtowner]

Originally Posted by dante2308

The data is based on 2002

I find your own report suspect considering that Georgia's gdp per capita grew last year. You premise is also suspect considering that Atlanta averages better than the US average gdp per capita. It isn't the races that come to the city, it is merely the fact that Atlanta's job market isn't keeping up with the population growth. This is due to the need for new industry that just hasn't happened in the US.

Let us not forget that Atlanta grew the fastest during that time period. Perhaps if the government were supporting more entrepreneurship instead of class favoritism.

Fiorenza data comes from a study of an economist at the 4th District of the Federal Reserve Bank, so for once, I think Fiorenza actually gave us accurate data and information.

[AtlMidtowner]

Originally Posted by Fiorenza

Bottom line, according to the chart I posted, Atlanta has negative growth in income per capita since 2000, the worst showing in the country.

Well, what can you expect from a red state....... I actually read the entire article from where that chart came from. The chart was specifically created for the 4th District of the Federal Reserve Bank to show that Cleveland and Philadelphia appear to be doing average, both cities are in the 4th District, and the economist writing the article wanted to pat his bosses on the back saying good work in the 4th district!! (my cynical view)

Why Atlanta has done so poorly is another question that should be analyzed. As Atlanta seems to be boomtown growthwise, it isnt so obvious why the real income has risen. Of course the mean real per capita income for Americans as whole, when accounting for inflation, has not risen since 1970. All economic growth has gone to the top 4% of Americans. (I will post that info on the political forum)

The chart does NOT show Atlanta the worst in the country. The chart is accurate for the cities posted, and can only be seen as list of cities; however, the chart, although it is data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reported from the 4th District of the Federal Reserve Bank, does not give a complete picture of the USA, so on that data alone you CANNOT make that type of conclusion. The information given does not give the base income level of any of the cities, nor does it give the national average or the base income nationally. In other words, this chart alone (as I already posted earlier), doesnt tell you jack ....

[Fiorenza]

In other words, this chart alone (as I already posted earlier), doesnt tell you jack ....

It tells me Atlanta metro is doing worse than all other major metros in the country.

Of course the mean real per capita income for Americans as whole, when accounting for inflation, has not risen since 1970.

Sure, but we differ as to the cause.

[Andrea]

Originally Posted by dante2308

The government starts projects so often that it is a burden on our national debt, but we cannot improve without them.

Very interesting, Dante. How do most citizens in Jamaica view the government in terms of its efficiency and ability to accomplish good for its people?

We are constantly in the shadow of a massive superpower hovering to the north with huge standards of living and very advanced technology.

Dumb question, but what do you mean by "in the shadow of a huge superpower"? Does that create positive or negative feelings about the U.S. (or neither)?

[dante2308]

Originally Posted by Andrea

Very interesting, Dante. How do most citizens in Jamaica view the government in terms of its efficiency and ability to accomplish good for its people?Dumb question, but what do you mean by "in the shadow of a huge superpower"? Does that create positive or negative feelings about the U.S. (or neither)?

All our government does is try to make things better.

By US standards, our government is(was?) blazingly fast. There isn't a huge philosophy fight over whether there should be government programs, the only problem has always been funding and priority. We don't subsidize like you guys. Last year's platform fight was over the prospect of free education. I think we are actually a bit more capitalistic than you guys because our highways, schools, and some other services are privately owned. People are happy that we have modern highways, airports, and dirt cheap broadband ($9 will put you on par with at&t) and cell service all of a sudden, but are unhappy with crime, unemployment, and scattered scandals. It's not like we have rebels though.

People in Jamaica don't have negative views of the United States in general. See I kept trying to generalize the mood from what I hear when I go down, but the views vary so very much.

My cousin (masters in mass communication, radio channel executive, Jamaican citizen) wants to move to the US and whorships here because she never got her visa and feels constricted.

My aunt (lawyer, government employee, dual citizen) moved back to Jamaica from the US and feels more at home.

My father (lawyer, dual citizen, very political) wants to move back to Jamiaca, but likes his Florida practice so he set up two practices and flies between them. He doesn't like the war or what Clinton did to our economy in the 90's (cut exports of our food products), but appreciates the low crime and thinks America provides a higher income potential.

My mother (professor, dual citizen) misses the hills and red soil of her home town and likes that Atlanta offers some of that. She visits Jamaica constantly. She is cynical about US government and fiercely prideful about Jamaica, but holds no angst.

Dante2308(aerospace scientist, dual citizen) wants to be free to be gay but is drawn to the island. I plan to visit next week in fact. My views on America are pretty non-radical. When I lived in Jamaica, I had no negative opinions of America. I liked the airports and engineering feats and I used to fill my sketch pad with spaceships, highway intersections, trains, airplanes, and skyscrapers. When I finally did go to America I was assaulted with racism and it threw me off guard. I simply dealt with it though and got my grades corrected (I had a teacher lower my grades because they didn't like me) and whatnot so I could continue to do well. Bush dashed away the dreamy aura that America had for me, but Obama restored it. I celebrate every improvement in Atlanta or Kingston equally.


So to just sum up without giving any more personal information, my family members and friends from there have all been to the states and know it just as well as you or I and feel like it is just an extension of the same western culture and is easily imported from or visited.

For the most part: we aren't angrily jealous because we don't really have any reason not to like you guys. Our military is trained by you guys. We are proud of people like Colin Powell for gaining power and we take cues from you guys about how to do better(and what not to do). With the exception of my cousin, most of my family members have returned to Jamaica after living in various parts of the world.

Jamaica has no real dispute with any nation. We have a tiny military made up of 2% of the applicants on any given year. We have a little bit of a rivalry with Trinidad and Tobago, but not on a professional or political level. I think everyone is just unified in hating gays at this point.

I do have a Jamaican thread on this site: http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=112671 Learn more there

[Andrea]

Thanks very much, Dante, most enlightening. It sounds like things are looking good in Jamaica. Your family is quite amazing.

[Fiorenza]

Dante, thanks for sharing. My neighbor is Jamaican, but his family moved to another island to escape the crime.

Nonetheless, despite the crime, I have a very high opinion of Jamaicans as individuals, and got into the Bob Marley gig back in the day. Used to hang with a Jamaican lady. You might say some of my best friends are Jamaican.