Canadian Airport Thread II

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Should be doable. 7 weekly cut with 6 weekly added. Maybe the YYC-YYZ domestic turn gets reduced or chopped to compensate.

It's more than 6x weekly.

NRT gains 4x weekly
FCO gains 2x weekly
EDI gains 1x weekly
BCN gains 2x weekly (3x weekly gain only for ~ 2 weeks in early May 2024, but didn't count it, since CDG drops from daily to 6x weekly for 1 week around then as well)

That's a total of 9x weekly. WS will definitely have to cut domestic flying on the 787 for a couple of days every week to make room for all these additions. Of course, this is all assuming these flights are spread out evenly throughout the week. If that's not the case, then WS might need to backtrack on some of these additions.

NRT, FCO and BCN are level 3 slot coordinated airports. The slot allocations for S24 haven't been released yet. If all doesn't go to WS's plan on the slots front, then things will likely change.

[thenoflyzone]

In other news, looks like Azores Airlines is expanding service to YUL and YYZ. The Montreal increase is quite significant.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/231114-s4ns24pdl

Ponta Delgada – Montreal eff 01JUN24 Increase from 1 to 4 weekly, A320
Ponta Delgada – Toronto eff 06JUN24 Increase from 6 to 7 weekly, A321neo

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

It's more than 6x weekly.

NRT gains 4x weekly
FCO gains 2x weekly
EDI gains 1x weekly
BCN gains 2x weekly (3x weekly gain only for ~ 2 weeks in early May 2024, but didn't count it, since CDG drops from daily to 6x weekly for 1 week around then as well)

That's a total of 9x weekly. WS will definitely have to cut domestic flying on the 787 for a couple of days every week to make room for all these additions. Of course, this is all assuming these flights are spread out evenly throughout the week. If that's not the case, then WS might need to backtrack on some of these additions.

NRT, FCO and BCN are level 3 slot coordinated airports. The slot allocations for S24 haven't been released yet. If all doesn't go to WS's plan on the slots front, then things will likely change.

42x weekly is doable no? Wouldn't that leave WS with one spare?

[hollywoodcory]

^42x weekly is only 2x more per week than what was operated in S23.

Some of the new timings are interesting. FCO arrives in YYC at 17:06 so unless the late Transborder bank is pushed back, its going to make for some interesting connection times.

Also, there's one other WS schedule update for S24 that's been missed. YYZ-YUL has been completed removed. It was previously scheduled to resume in late April.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

^42x weekly is only 2x more per week than what was operated in S23.

Some of the new timings are interesting. FCO arrives in YYC at 17:06 so unless the late Transborder bank is pushed back, its going to make for some interesting connection times.

Also, there's one other WS schedule update for S24 that's been missed. YYZ-YUL has been completed removed. It was previously scheduled to resume in late April.

Last WS flight to LAX leaves after 7pm no? That's probably the largest connection point coming from FCO. Should be fine.

[thenoflyzone]

Looks like the AMS cuts for S24 aren't happening. LOL

Jetblue might be a whiny little child, but it's political moves are paying dividents. It helped them get AMS slots this past summer, and it will surely help them get slots for S24.

KL and DL should send B6 a gift basket or something, and give them whatever slots they want at AMS. Because of them, the flight cap will not happen in S24, and maybe even in S25.

Link in Dutch.

https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/2449...opig-niet-door

Translation

The Schiphol shrinkage plan will not go ahead for the time being

THE HAGUE - The outgoing Rutte IV cabinet is suspending the shrinkage of Schiphol after fierce resistance from the United States and the European Commission. Reducing the number of flights next summer will therefore not take place, according to a letter from outgoing Minister Mark Harbers (Infrastructure and Water Management), who has created unprecedented chaos in the shrinkage dossier.

Harbers' plan was to reduce the number of flights to 460,000, but that has been canceled for the time being. Schiphol will therefore receive the maximum 500,000 slots.

Not only were the airlines fiercely critical of the downsizing plan from the start, the American Ministry of Transport was also angry with the Dutch cabinet. The Americans even threatened counter-sanctions, as De Telegraaf previously reported after a letter was leaked to this newspaper. For example, the Americans believe that the Netherlands is violating treaties by refusing flights from the American airline JetBlue in 2024.

Harbers goes through the motions after the criticism and swallows the controversial and shaky shrinkage plan for the time being. He said that the Americans 'reiterated and explained' their earlier criticism this week during a summit meeting in Brussels. “In the eyes of the United States, the capacity reduction would be unjust, discriminatory and anti-competitive for airlines.”

The letter that Harbers sent to the House of Representatives also shows that the European Union has made mincemeat of the VVD member's plans. The minister has been severely reprimanded for the shoddy work he has done. The European Commissioner for Transport this week 'expressed serious concerns' about 'not following the balanced approach procedure'. Brussels also threatened to initiate legal infringement proceedings against Harbers 'for what it believes was failure to comply with European regulations'.

Harbers was 'urgently called upon by Brussels and the US to take all possible steps to ensure compliance with European law'. The minister then counted his buttons and 'reconsidered' whether the shrinkage plans could go ahead. That appears not to be the case. According to Harbers, this is 'not expected to be in line with European law' and, moreover, the Netherlands would become 'isolated'.

The question is what the political consequences of the blunder are for Harbers. The outgoing minister previously stated that the downsizing plan was necessary to safeguard the interests of local residents.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by hehehe

42x weekly is doable no? Wouldn't that leave WS with one spare?

Indeed. Seems like there was some slack in the S23 schedule, that enables these extra 2x weekly long haul rotations in S24.

As Acey describes it over on airliners....

FCO, NRT, CDG and LHR all daily, requiring 4 frames.
EDI/BCN/DUB require 2 frames, since all three never fly on the same day.

That's a total of 6 frames needed, with the 7th doing YYC-YYZ, and used as a spare should the need arise.

[SignalHillHiker]

Looks like round-trip for us direct to LGW will be around $1,400. That’s quite a bit more than flying to TO or MTL first, but potentially worth it for a lot of wealthier people.

For a return to Lisbon, it’s only about $250 more than going all the way to Montreal first. Cutting that most of a day off my travel time is work $250 to me. Now just need the flight to exist in February or March when I usually take vacations lol

[mxg308]

No more YOW or YUL to YYZ on Westjet:

Separately, the airline is removing following routes in 2024, gradually closed for reservation during the week of 06NOV23:
Calgary – London Gatwick Planned 1 daily service resumption from 28APR24 closed for reservation since 0200GMT 12NOV23
Edmonton – London ON Seasonal service from 17MAY24 closed for reservation, 2 weekly
Edmonton – Penticton Seasonal service 29JUN24 – 02SEP24 closed for reservation, 1 daily
Toronto – Montreal Previously scheduled to resume on 28APR24, 1 daily
Toronto – Ottawa Last flight available for reservation from Toronto on 25APR24, Ottawa on 26APR24. This route is scheduled 1 daily

[Dominion301]

Here are YOW's October pax stats. AF to CDG continues to have a LF of around 92%, even with the last six segments at the end of the month upgauged to the 789 (or 772 sub), if assuming F8's first four CUN segments of the season came in at around a 55% LF - highly likely given the first northbound flight will have been practically empty.

Sector / Oct-22 / Oct-23 / % Chg.
Dom: 281,971 / 300,504 / +6.6%
TB: 17,567 / 45,065 / +156.5%
Int'l: 0 / 9,792 / #DIV/0!
TTL: 299,538 / 355,361 / +18.6%

Sector / YTD 2022 / YTD 2023 / % Change
Dom: 2,245,015 / 2,736,232 / +21.9%
TB: 124,536 / 448,742 / +260.3%
Int'l: 42,722 / 230,929 / +440.5%
TTL: 2,412,273 / 3,415,903 / +41.6% - on pace to end the year at ~4.05M = pace has gone +450K since January 2023

Month-Over-Month Change
Sector / Sep-23 / Oct-23 / % Change
Dom: 300,789 / 300,504 / -0.1%
TB: 38,599 / 45,065 / +16.8%
Int'l: 8,672 / 9,792 / +12.9%
TTL: 348,060 / 355,361 / +2.1%
Avg/Day: 11,602 / 11,463 / -1.2%
% of month's avg daily pax vs full year 2019 (13,990 avg pax/day) = 81.9%
YTD TTL vs YTD 2019 = 79.3%
2019 Avg Oct pax/day: 13,567
% of month's avg daily pax vs the same month in 2019 = 84.5%

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2021
Dom: 3,200,216 / +179.8%
TB: 514,541 / +4,477.0%
Int'l: 281,207 / +1,703.0%
TTL: 3,995,964 / +241.3%

[Dominion301]

YWG added 3 more months of pax stats: https://www.waa.ca/assets/pages/Webs...-Q3-2023_1.pdf

Here's September 2023 and YTD:

Sector / Sep-22 / Sep-23 / % Change
Dom: 287,772 / 338,395 / +17.6%
TB: 11,444 / 24,975 / +118.2%
Int'l: 0 / 0 / #DIV/0!
TTL: 299,216 / 363,370 / +21.4%

Sector / YTD 2022 / YTD 2023 / % Change
Dom: 2,015,450 / 2,790,225 / +38.4%
TB: 109,046 / 226,150 / +107.4%
Int'l: 36,279 / 119,626 / +229.7%
TTL: 2,160,775 / 3,136,001 / +45.1% - YWG is on pace for ~4.07M pax so neck & neck with YOW for #6

Month-Over-Month Change
Sector / Aug-23 / Sep-23 / % Change
Dom: 408,602 / 338,395 / -17.2%
TB: 25,144 / 24,975 / -0.7%
Int'l: 0 / 0 / #DIV/0!
TTL: 433,746 / 363,370 / -16.2%
Avg/Day: 13,992 / 12,112 / -13.4%
% of month's avg daily pax vs full year 2019 (12,286 avg pax/day) = 98.6%
YTD TTL vs YTD 2019 = 90.9%
2019 Avg Sept pax/day: 12,159
% of month's avg daily pax vs the same month in 2019 = 99.6% - big difference between YWG and YOW here - shows how much Ottawa-Toronto day tripper traffic has been lost to Zoom/Teams.

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2021
Dom: 3,570,495 / +199.0%
TB: 282,010 / +1,235.2%
Int'l: 153,835 / +1,866.9%
TTL: 4,006,340 / +227.6%

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Looks like round-trip for us direct to LGW will be around $1,400. That’s quite a bit more than flying to TO or MTL first, but potentially worth it for a lot of wealthier people.

It was never going to be cheaper than connecting in YYZ/YUL, to be honest. Non stop flights usually always come at a premium vs connections. The questions is, will others like you stand behind this flight. If they don't, the route won't last.

[Justanothermember]

.....

[SignalHillHiker]

I think it'll be fine, hopefully. We need this bit to go well to hopefully get even just once weekly year-round. I know a few regular business travelers (not business class, or whatever it's called, regular seats but paid for by their employer) and they've always said the flights to London and Dublin appeared full every time they went. We definitely have a healthy amount of that type of traveler; I'm just curious if it's enough for 3x weekly.

Nice thing is the direct flight tourists will be back this summer. They're my second-favourite (the city is still small enough that we end up interacting pretty often with tourists, they're obvious here, if only by accent, in a way they wouldn't stand out in larger cities). They're usually here on business but there's also lots of people in their 30s-40s who buy just because they didn't realize they could reach North America that quickly, check a continent off their list on a weekend. They're always really fun to chat with, second only to the van life people from the States.

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Last WS flight to LAX leaves after 7pm no? That's probably the largest connection point coming from FCO. Should be fine.

It meets min connection time for LAX / LAS / SFO but completely misses SEA which departs at 17:55. There was a hefty number connections there as well, sometimes upwards of 30-40 per flight too.

I'm sure the times will get adjusted. Let's not forget NRT originally had horrendous timings when first loaded too.

[YYCguys]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

…Also, there's one other WS schedule update for S24 that's been missed. YYZ-YUL has been completed removed. It was previously scheduled to resume in late April.

From a crewing point of view, this, in addition to the YOW-YYZ cut, will make it very difficult/impossible for commuting crew to get to YYZ. Pilots may be able to access AC commuting privileges but cabin crew will be SOL unless they pay out of pocket to get on Porter/VIA or drive!

From a guest point of view, WS is basically handing guests in YUL/YOW over to AC/Porter/AT!

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by YYCguys

From a crewing point of view, this, in addition to the YOW-YYZ cut, will make it very difficult/impossible for commuting crew to get to YYZ. Pilots may be able to access AC commuting privileges but cabin crew will be SOL unless they pay out of pocket to get on Porter/VIA or drive!

From a guest point of view, WS is basically handing guests in YUL/YOW over to AC/Porter/AT!

Are there a lot of WS pilots and FA's based in YUL?

[YYCguys]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Are there a lot of WS pilots and FA's based in YUL?

There’s no WS base in YUL, but there are quite a few commuters from YUL and YOW that are based in YYZ.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YYCguys

There’s no WS base in YUL, but there are quite a few commuters from YUL and YOW that are based in YYZ.

I would assume that dramatically changes if/when Sunwings is integrated into WestJet.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by casper

I would assume that dramatically changes if/when Sunwings is integrated into WestJet.

It'll be interesting to see what happens next winter. WG have seasonal bases (both crew and aircraft) like YOW, YQB, YHZ and YWG. What happens to them I wonder?