Quote:
Originally Posted by paul78701
If we go into a recession, it seems to me that it will be a self fulfilling prophecy. All of the talking heads seem to be doing a ridiculous amount of hand wringing and talking us into one. So now some of the worry warts that control purse strings are preparing for a recession even though there is not yet evidence that we are going into a recession. But by preparing for a recession, they may cause a recession. I know inflation is high, but the economy is still doing well. So, IMHO, it's mind numbing negative nancy-ism run amuck.
At any rate, I'm no expert, but I imagine most of these towers have already secured enough funding to get these buildings done. This isn't like the old Intel building which, if I'm not mistaken, Intel was funding itself and could just cut it off at a whim.
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I mean - there are real economic forces that are harming the economy. The global supply chain is still a wreck, ocean freight costs are still astronomical, raw material shortages are extremely real, inflation is the highest its been in 40 years and the labor market is completely wrecked.
The fed is currently fighting 8% inflation and a labor market where non-college education workers are seeing a 14% annual increase in wages and trying to figure out how to curb inflation without bringing the economy to a screeching halt.
Now, the particulars of the Austin housing market is that it is absolutely red hot. i also imagine many of these towers already have financing but I also assume they are all looking at increased construction costs. Nationwide I assume we will see a slowdown in non public works construction but that does not mean that every single market will see a slowdown. Austin has real needs for apartments and condos. Hotel and office construction may slow down but its too early to say.
Its also not clear how long this particular recession (if it happens) will last. The 08 recession was an outlier. Most recessions are relatively short lived (11 months is average). I suspect a lot of the Summer/Fall starts on these towers will largely still rise but I suspect a few of the projects we think are about to break ground will fall through and projects in the earlier stages may be paused.