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  #1741  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2024, 11:06 PM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
No. It's about a real estate correction. That doesn't in any way change the amount of housing supplied or necessary. Just the equilibrium price, which is driven by interest rates.
Yet our illustrious PM is recently on record as not wanting to upset the Boomer equity applecart. Hard to see how a much-needed correction can occur with that attitude.

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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
They did target them at "real Canadian homebuyers". Those buyers were mostly Canadian investors.
I think we both know I meant targetting people who will actually live in them.

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Well, if the government isn't going to build any housing at all, then they are going to have to bail out the only people that do.
It is impossible for any private developer to build the kind of affordability that's required as land prices have ben allowed to get far too high, thanks to the idiotic policies of senior levels of government. You're seeing that now in the unsold inventory piling up. Those unsold units aren't all luxury units targeted to offshore or investors.
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  #1742  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2024, 11:18 PM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
You're seeing that now in the unsold inventory piling up. Those unsold units aren't all luxury units targeted to offshore or investors.
What unsold inventory piling up? CMHC data shows that in the whole of Metro Vancouver there were 2,328 completed, but unsold units in April this year. In the City of Vancouver there were 562, 235 of them in a strata, and only 190 of those were apartments.

In April 2019 there were 2,313 completed but unsold units in Metro Vancouver, of which 599 were in the City of Vancouver, 316 of them apartments.

The Vancouver market hasn't got a problem of accumulating unsold housing for sale. It has got an increase in owners putting pre-owned homes onto the market, but not finding buyers at the price they're asking. Many potential buyers are no doubt waiting for prices to come down, or interest rates to fall (or both).

Toronto has even less unsold new inventory. There might be 7,800 pre-owned condos on the market in Toronto, but CMHC say there are only 50 newly completed but unsold condo apartments in April 2024, compared to 222 in April 2019.
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Last edited by Changing City; Jun 5, 2024 at 12:01 AM. Reason: added Toronto
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  #1743  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2024, 11:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Changing City View Post
What unsold inventory piling up? CMHC data shows that in the whole of Metro Vancouver there were 2,328 completed, but unsold units in April this year. In the City of Vancouver there were 562, and only 190 of those were apartments.

In April 2019 there were 2,313 completed but unsold units in Metro Vancouver, of which 599 were in the City of Vancouver, 316 of them apartments.

The Vancouver market hasn't got a problem of accumulating unsold housing for sale. It has got an increase in owners putting pre-owned homes onto the market, but not finding buyers at the price they're asking. Many potential buyers are no doubt waiting for prices to come down, or interest rates to fall (or both).
You inadvertently identified the problem right there. Sellers (individual and developer) have become so used to the ridiculously inflated prices driven by forces created by our incompetent gov't that they just cant see the prices those earning a regular Canadian income as "normal".
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  #1744  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 12:09 AM
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You inadvertently identified the problem right there. Sellers (individual and developer) have become so used to the ridiculously inflated prices driven by forces created by our incompetent gov't that they just cant see the prices those earning a regular Canadian income as "normal".
That's how the property market has worked for decades. High prices are always sticky - owners who want to sell will try to avoid taking what they perceive as a 'loss' (even if they paid a lower price for their home years earlier).

At least there's currently some modest pressure for prices to stop rising, and maybe even fall. Some homes have to sell - death, divorce, moving away - and with buyers unwilling or unable to pay as much, that will see fewer sales overall, but also falling prices. (In Vancouver, house prices are still going up a bit, and apartment prices are falling, a bit). Overall, accounting for inflation, apartment prices are now cheaper in Vancouver than they were 7 years ago (and than most of the past 7 years). They're only less affordable to buyers needing a mortgage, because interest rates are higher.

'Investors' who bought to rent (getting less in rent than they are paying back on their loan) on the expectation of capital appreciation are now faced with higher re-financing costs, and little or no capital gain, so some of them are selling too.

It's not like the pre-owned homes on the market are likely to be empty. Both Vancouver and Toronto have empty homes taxes, so either the owners are still living in their homes, and hoping to sell, and move, or they're renting them out. If they're paying the empty homes taxes it's helping to get non-market housing built.
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Last edited by Changing City; Jun 5, 2024 at 12:19 AM.
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  #1745  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 3:54 PM
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And so it begins, first interest rate cut today of 25 basis points, rate down to 4.75%:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ban...ne-5-1.7225076

Wonder, given the timing, if the housing market will get even hotter now since it's not even summer yet. I imagine there are many potential homebuyers that were waiting for the first cut to happen before jumping in.
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  #1746  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 4:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Harrison View Post
And so it begins, first interest rate cut today of 25 basis points, rate down to 4.75%:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ban...ne-5-1.7225076

Wonder, given the timing, if the housing market will get even hotter now since it's not even summer yet. I imagine there are many potential homebuyers that were waiting for the first cut to happen before jumping in.
Awesome because what Canada really needs is more inflation of housing prices.
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  #1747  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 4:40 PM
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I'll selfishly take the lil cut. My mortgage is locked in for 2 more years, but my HELOC will benefit a bit.
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  #1748  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 4:44 PM
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I'll selfishly take the lil cut. My mortgage is locked in for 2 more years, but my HELOC will benefit a bit.
And there's another piece of the problem - HELOCs.

It used to be one could get a "second mortgage" on one's home although there was a certain amount of stigma to doing so. Now, its just borrow against your home equity so gov't better keep home prices high to abet it.
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  #1749  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 4:46 PM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
And there's another piece of the problem - HELOCs.

It used to be one could get a "second mortgage" on one's home although there was a certain amount of stigma to doing so. Now, its just borrow against your home equity so gov't better keep home prices high to abet it.
If you have to borrow money, you're going to get the best rate borrowing against an asset like your home.

As with all credit, there are smart and dumb ways to use it.
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  #1750  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 5:35 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
And there's another piece of the problem - HELOCs.

It used to be one could get a "second mortgage" on one's home although there was a certain amount of stigma to doing so. Now, its just borrow against your home equity so gov't better keep home prices high to abet it.
HELOCs aren't second mortgages. There are still people who get second mortgages. And the rates for those are prohibitively high. You really gotta be desperate or have some peculiar financial situation to need a second mortgage. HELOCs have limits on what portion of equity value can be borrowed against. Second mortgages do not. The real problem with HELOCs is that we've let people use them to speculate on real estate.
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  #1751  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 5:40 PM
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If you have to borrow money, you're going to get the best rate borrowing against an asset like your home.

As with all credit, there are smart and dumb ways to use it.
Unfortunately there are far too many Canadians using it in dumb ways, with a quarter of those who have one only making interest payments on the balance. It becomes just another reason for gov'ts to keep the housing bubble going as Canadians turn to HELOCs to offset incomes that don't keep up with the cost of living.
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  #1752  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 6:07 PM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Unfortunately there are far too many Canadians using it in dumb ways, with a quarter of those who have one only making interest payments on the balance. It becomes just another reason for gov'ts to keep the housing bubble going as Canadians turn to HELOCs to offset incomes that don't keep up with the cost of living.
Lots of people do lots of dumb things. It's ok to have the freedom to fail.
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  #1753  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 6:07 PM
P'tit Renard P'tit Renard is offline
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Unfortunately there are far too many Canadians using it in dumb ways, with a quarter of those who have one only making interest payments on the balance. It becomes just another reason for gov'ts to keep the housing bubble going as Canadians turn to HELOCs to offset incomes that don't keep up with the cost of living.
Including taking out a HELOC to pay the downpayment of a new investment property. Leverage on leverage piles on.
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  #1754  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 6:09 PM
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Lots of people do lots of dumb things. It's ok to have the freedom to fail.
But they don't fail because the gov't keeps bailing them out to keep the housing Ponzi scheme going.
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  #1755  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 6:10 PM
P'tit Renard P'tit Renard is offline
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Lots of people do lots of dumb things. It's ok to have the freedom to fail.
if the government wasn't actively overstimulating demand with unprecedented population growth, wasn't exercising every tool to allow borrowers to increase leverage, and wasn't increasing guarantees on MBS securities then that would be true. But based on the actions of this government, the profits are privatised and the costs are socialized.
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  #1756  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 6:12 PM
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I'm kicking myself for not buying USD and Euros yesterday because the Canadian peso is going to be on a long, long slide now. And that will further fuel inflation.
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  #1757  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 6:48 PM
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You inadvertently identified the problem right there. Sellers (individual and developer) have become so used to the ridiculously inflated prices driven by forces created by our incompetent gov't that they just cant see the prices those earning a regular Canadian income as "normal".
Wage growth in Canada very strong and is well beyond inflation.
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  #1758  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 7:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Nite View Post
Wage growth in Canada very strong and is well beyond inflation.
[IMG]fantasy island by bcborn, on Flickr[/IMG]
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  #1759  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 7:27 PM
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Nite is right. It's well documented.

Wages are not outpacing the cost of housing however, especially in high cost markets. Which is where the pain is felt.

Wage increases are also uneven - some people get 15% wage hikes while others get 0%.
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  #1760  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 8:50 PM
P'tit Renard P'tit Renard is offline
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Already have pals in the industry commenting that this is a significant misstep by the government, and can't contemplate why the state wants to bear all of this extra risk:

Canada Begins Real Estate Developer Bail Out With 55 Year Loans
https://betterdwelling.com/canada-be...55-year-loans/
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