Quote:
Originally Posted by Matthew
Maybe I am (placing too much importance on corporate support) and it will work in Winnipeg? A metro below 1 million, less personal income, small TV market and not enough corporate support are the major reasons I questioned it. According to the links you provided, gate receipts appear to be only 33% of Atlanta's team revenue? The Rangers are also around 33%. I guess the remaining amount is corporate support, TV and advertising, which is dependent on population and how powerful a corporate headquarters market the city is. Smaller market teams are surviving with higher dependence on gate receipts though. Your city will need the "wealth" to pay the higher ticket costs and consistent sellouts though. This (less corporate support) would explain the high ticket prices in smaller markets. Edmonton is still almost twice as large as Winnipeg and is an unquestionable major league market. Edmonton's personal income is $49.93 billion (U.S. Dollars) and Ottawa is $54.18 billion (U.S.). Personal income in Winnipeg is only $26.55 billion (U.S. Dollars). Winnipeg would need around $37 billion (U.S.) to comfortably support a team, according to Bizjournals research. I still think personal income (wealth) is in question. When Winnipeg reaches 1 million metro population, I think it will become an excellent NHL market without any doubts.
Winnipeg's metro was last counted at 694,668 and is estimated at 713,000 today. Ottawa is almost twice as large with a growth rate two or three times higher in a more populated area. There is a difference between city size and metro size and TV market size. It's not how large your city is. It's how large your market area is. The NFL does want to return to LA and no NFL in the second largest media market is a big issue for them. LA must have the stadium and right ownership first and a team is a sure thing. Sure enough for the NFL to consider expansion to do so. Not many top tier leagues are willing to expand and some want to contract, so they are desperate to add a team in LA.
Arizona is very conservative and taxpayer money is not a sure thing. The Coyotes could move to Winnipeg with Arizona conservatives celebrating. Speaking of sure things, the deal to bring MLB to Winston-Salem looked almost like a done deal. A contract to sell the team, stadium drawings, pre-approval to relocate and in the end the owner had no intention of selling or relocating. He wanted headlines and pressure for tax money. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I always question this when I see it.
Southern teams struggle because our lakes don't freeze and few people play hockey. Hockey (true ice hockey) requires joining a league to play and an investment to learn the game. No one can drop a puck on a frozen lake and play. You can't create a frozen surface to play on in your backyard on a cold 58F/14C day in January. You can toss the football around, play backyard soccer, shoot some hoops in the driveway and learn the basics of baseball in the backyard. You can't do that with hockey here. We play summer sports. Right now, birds are singing and flowers are growing in warm 75F/24C weather. Perfect for playing any sport except hockey.
I feel like I'm raining on the parade, so lets go back to talking about the excitement of the NHL returning to Winnipeg. If the NHL said so, then Winnipeg must be ready for another team. I'm sure they asked the same questions, looked at similar numbers and said it works. The market size and issues related to it are interesting though.
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This is a really great post, with a variety of points.
For the record, refer to this thread for recent populatuion censuses
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=188569
Youre from the US so I don't expect you to be updated on the latest numbers, but there they are for reference. Note that is only for a 2 year period recently, and does not factor in recent growth. For instance, Winnipeg is only a few thousand behind Quebec City at that census (metro) and was likely be moved up to 7th spot by the end of 2010. This year Winnipeg is one of the contributors for average national housing value increases. Growth is steady, but not slowing down - only building up and up. This is the result of building a solid foudnation for a varied economy, not simply dependent on a primary resource such as oil (which is now being explored much more here...just within the last month there are 3 times more oil wells up in Southwestern Manitoba...you can bet oil will play a small role into Winnipeg's future economy, but won't run it; only add to it)
There is a lot to the local economy here you are underestimating. While those figures for personal income are reliable, and an argument could be made that Winnipeg is not in the same league as Edmonton and Ottawa, you are also factoring in how it is also more affordable to live here. According to a study conducted by TSN for last year's "Why Not Canada" series, Winnipeggers spend more than people do on average in Edmonton or Ottawa. The accuracy of this is irrelevent, the point simply that it can stand head to head with these markets in certain ways. I have travelled between all three and can spot certain similarities and differences, each are different enough to be unique, but surprisngly similar in other areas. In the end, while there is no argument that Edmonton and Ottawa are richer than Winnipeg, everything balances out enough that spending dollars will not be an issue like many people think it is. Winnipeg of 2011 is not the same Winnipeg as 1996. Its been slow, but steady - it is surprising how much has changed behind the scenes in 15 years here.
It is not disputed at all Atlanta is very powerful when it comes to corporate support - but your point about how gate revenue contributes so low to the Thrashers, is
exactly why the team is bleeding money. You are right to note in a city such as Atlanta or NYC corporate support is higher, and this contributes more money...this is also true for Toronto. Your argument for small market teams relying more on gate revenue is also correct imo. No disagreement there,
...But you are, I think, putting the wrong context with the Thrashers losses...regardless of potential, as it stands right now, they are bleeding money. Regardless of the fact you and I would rather they stay in Atlanta, there is an ownership group that does not want to lose another $20MM. $20MM is not a small number. Teams have moved in the NHL simply by losing that much money the entire time they existed, let alone $130MM in losses :O
The NHL has changed so much since the mid-90's: Canadian teams were struggling for reasons back then, today it is a full 180, and will not switch as long as the CBA and on-par dollar stand. The biggest reason Canadian teams were struggling was due to the low dollar. The low dollar killed their cash flow because they made less money and still had to pay players in American dollars. Today, this is not the case. This is why Winnipeg and Quebec City are looked at so favorably behind the scenes now, because they would be considered similar to Buffalo: Solid, mid range revenue teams.
We need teams down south if Winnipeg and QC are to survive, because those teams offset the high market value ones like Detroit, Toronto, Montreal, New York.
Its tough to explain everything, but as it currently stands my ultimate point is regardless of potentials or whatnot, there is an ownership group in Winnipeg committed to obtaining and maintaining an NHL franchise here, whereas in Atlanta the ownership group wants to get rid of their team, and has had trouble for the last 5-6 years selling to someone who would keep the team there - don't be fooled by the litigation. That did hold a sale back, but not the way Mr Gearson spun it.
For what its worth, as ridiculous as the situation in Phoenix is, they are throwing everything away to keep the Coyotes. They are probably more worse off than the Thrashers given that they have lost more than twice the amount of money, but the City of Glendale is willing to throw the whole barn away to keep them there, and they have a prospective owner who clearly is not willing to pay the full $170MM the NHL wants.
For Atlanta fans, you guys have two main things to look forward to:
1) The Bonds in Phoenix have not yet been sold, or if they have it has not been publically revealed or posted on any rating websites
2) There is talk of a serious, potential owner who will keep the team in Atlanta, not that joke Rollins character, and this person/persons is apparently serious
So there is hope yet
But these next few weeks are crucial to finding out what will happen...
questions arise regarding ATL and PHX:
For Phx:
Will the bonds sell? Will GWI file a suit? Will it take two more weeks? Does the upcoming trade deadline mean the plug for the NHL? Is Mr Hulsizer willing to renegotiate or spend more money? Will the NHL allow further negotiations? Does TNSE still care about the Coyotes?
For Atl:
Who is this potential owner? Will he/she/they make an offer? Will it include the arena + Hawks? Will ASG allow this? Will they want to negotiate a lease agreement? Will potential owner want this? Is this fluff? Is TNSE waiting for the bonds to sell so they can commit to their apparent verbal agreement? Will ASG be tempted for more $$$ they could get from TNSE?
If one listened to Bettman's interview on the fan590 this morning, he was not overly protective about Atlanta or Phoenix, and he himself suggested should the bonds not sell in Phx, then its not looking good...he himself tongue-in-cheek joked about Winnipeg welcoming a team back and
did not outright deny it, and even in light of this potential owner for the Thrashers, he did not bring it up nor mention anything beyond they have some issues.
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I was just coming here to post that same message.
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